Super Bowl Super Pick

Giants "at" Patriots (-3)

The Giants are going to win the Super Bowl.

Oh, you wanted more analysis? Really? During the last two weeks, even as the NFL tried to distract us with the Pro Bowl, there's been the Super Bowl news cycle. One person finds a new story or angle, the rest of the media descends like pirañas and desiccate the corpse, reporting again and again on the same thing. There finally reaches a point of oversaturation, and then begin the jokes about how much we've focused on that one story and reports about the over-reporting, and then it fades away until a couple days later, someone asks, why have we stopped talking about this? And on and on and on it goes until you know way too much about Rob Gronkowski's ankle, even more than his own mother, and Tiquan Underwood goes through his own fifteen minutes of fame right in front of your eyes.

It's exhausting. There is no interesting or novel way to look at this Super Bowl. Every point of analysis has been made twice over, incessantly, debated and refuted. We've reached a negative point, a battle of attrition- there is nothing more to say, both teams have their pros and cons, and can be argued incessantly.

Here's how I see it, and I doubt I'm the only one to have said this. The Giants defense is not miles better than the Patriots defense, but they still have a vastly better, game changing pass rush. The offenses in this case are about equal, especially with Rob Gronkowski being at less than 100% for the Patriots. Both teams will be able to move the ball and score, but when it comes down to it, whose defense are you going to trust more to make the one stop needed to win the game? They're not an elite unit, not even close, but the Giants just have a better personnel group, a better pass rush (which can rattle Brady), and aren't starting Julian Edelman as their third cornerback. The Giants win by more than a field goal, something like 30-24.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Last week: 1-1 Overall, 1-1 ATS
Playoffs: 6-4 Overall, 5-5 ATS

NFL Conference Championship Picks

Well, here we are facing the penultimate weekend of the NFL season. Oftentimes, these are the best games of the year (even better than the Super Bowl, though we have been blessed with some great Super Bowls these past couple of years)- although it's going to be tough to match last week's bonkers 49ers-Saints matchup. In case you missed it, Alex Smith out dueled Drew Brees in the final two minutes, including an insane touchdown run on a third and short quarterback sweep. Brees responded, but somehow Smith led another drive and hit Vernon Davis for an improbable touchdown, shattering my prediction that if the game came down to quarterback play, it would be Brees who came out on top. The other pick I got wrong was believing in the Packers against the destiny juggernaut that is the Giants, and picking Tebow to cover. Freakin' Tebow. With all that being said, I finished 2-2 Overall and 2-2 ATS, putting me at 5-3 overall and 4-4 ATS. Overwhelmingly decent!

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)


I've thought about taking the Ravens here, and have even thought out the arguments why- the Patriots have a horrible defense, and the Ravens horrible offensive showing last week was forced by Houston's suddenly elite defense. The Ravens should be able to put pressure on Tom Brady and move the ball on the Patriots sieve like defense. Unfortunately, should doesn't quite cut it. Joe Flacco has been increasingly decent as the season goes on, becoming more and more of a "don't make any mistakes and we'll win" kind of quarterback. Add on to that Cam Cameron's horrible playcalling, and you have to doubt whether the Ravens will truly be able to take advantage of the awful pass defense of the Patriots. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense truly is elite- but Tom Brady has been outstanding lately. He'll be limited somewhat by this defense, but they won't be able to keep him down for the whole game, and it's unclear whether the Ravens will keep up on the scoreboard. If a team like the Steelers had been fully healthy going into the playoffs (or hadn't defended Tim Tebow idiotically), they could've beat the Patriots, since they have the defense to slow down Tom Brady and the offense to punish their defense. The Ravens are missing one half of that equation.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


New York Giants at San Francisco (-2)


I've gone back and forth on this one too many times. The 49ers have the best defense in the league, while the Giants passing attack and pass rush are among the league's best. The 49ers forced five turnovers last week and still had to score in the final seconds to beat the Saints; the Giants intimidated the Packers physically and forced Aaron Rodgers into a bad game (well, a lot of blame could be put on the Packers receivers, who might find themselves with a Butterfingers sponsorship soon (ba dum pshhh!!! I'm here all night!). But something in me says the Niners are going to win this one. They've got the defense and the run game to be successful in this game, and they've got some motivation now that everyone is jumping on the Giants bandwagon. Plus, they'll be playing in front of a rowdy San Francisco crowd that hasn't been this close to the Super Bowl since the glory days. The Giants are the hot team, the team of destiny, right now- but that wouldn't be a real surprise. The Niners stingy defense and middling offense will take down the Giants. Maybe I'm just saying this because I couldn't stand two weeks of "Giants-Patriots REMATCH!" stories, but it's just a gut feeling. The 49ers, not the Giants, are the 'miracle' team.
Pick: 49ers win, Giants cover (fine, I'm not that confident in this Niners pick).

NFL Divisional Round Picks

We are heading to the twilight of the NFL season, with 32 teams whittled down to four, and a precious three weeks of games remaining. Well, four if you count the Pro Bowl (and if you do, I just feel bad for you.) That's seven games of football left before the offseason, where we'll sigh and wish we could be watching a Browns game. It gets that bad. So let's carpe diem these last three weeks and enjoy the beauty of playoff football. Last week I went 3-1 overall on my playoff picks and 2-2 against the spread. Hopefully it gets better this week!

New Orleans (-4) at San Francisco


The Saints have been arguably the best team in the NFL in the second half of the season. Since a perplexing Week 9 loss to the Rams (which was preceded, anyway, by a 62-7 thumping of the Colts), the Saints have won eight straight games while putting at least 22 points on the board in every game. In five of those games, they scored 40 or more points. Still, all their "weaker" performances on that stretch and during the season have come on the road, where the conditions are not quite as hospitable as in the Superdome. The offense is a juggernaut, with threats at every skill position. On grass, though, their aren't quite as efficient or impeccable. The 49ers offense is almost entirely predicated on kicking field goals; and when on third and long, they choose to play it safe and run instead of putting the game on Alex Smith's shoulders. Against elite defenses, this will lead to a loss, as seen in the 49ers Thanksgiving loss to the Ravens. The Saints, however, have far from an elite defense. Their scheme, predicated on blitzes and turnovers, isn't producing the way it did in their Super Bowl season. The 49ers defense, on other hand, is elite, with a talented crop of linebackers and a great defensive line. They can stop the run (which was instrumental to the Saints success last week) and have a solid secondary.

All that is a long winded way of saying: I have no idea how this game is going to go. The last time I though the 49ers would lose to a superior offense, they went out and beat the Giants 27-20. Still, you have to worry about an offense that so routinely settles for field goals against an offense like the Saints, which can easily put up forty points.  In a match up like this, where I see great offense vs. great defense, the current league is set up to reward the offense. The Saints have the momentum and the better quarterback; and no matter how dominant the 49ers have been on defense for the season, I can't see them shutting out the Saints, and I can't see Alex Smith leading a game winning drive. It'll be closer than the Saints would like, and they won't hit 40, but they have the tools to come through in the clutch, while the 49ers will need to get ahead early and stay ahead- tough to do when you're putting field goals on the board.
Pick: Saints win, 49ers cover


Denver at New England (-13.5)


The Patriots need to win so that it all ends. Incessant Tebow-mania is ruining sports media. I spent the week hoping that the Elias Sports Bureau would alter the stats so that Tebow would have more or less than 316 yards passing so that this asinine "John 3:16 is his favorite bible verse!!! WHAT A SIGN!" nonsense could end.As Will Leitch tweeted:"Ordinarily, watching sports and reading about those sports provide me almost equal measures of pleasure. Tim Tebow is the marked exception.This absurdity needs to end. Tebow is not a referendum on religion in this country. He is not some miracle weaver. He represents something different to everybody, and therefore represents nothing. He is not special in any way besides being an average mechanical quarterback with a knack for beating 4th quarter defenses or the Steelers extremely misguided defensive plans. They let Tebow have the deep ball with one on one coverage. The problem Tebow has isn't with throws like that, where it's a chuck to a general place that lets the receiver get to it; it's in the true NFL style throws where the ball must be put into a tight window, where accuracy is paramount. He can't make those throws. But hucking it deep? Sure. As long as the Patriots don't treat Tebow like the worst player in the kickball game, they should be able to limit him as they did in their last meeting. The Denver defense isn't as elite as it was when Tebow began his run, and the Patriots should be able to pick it apart once again. The Patriots have a terrible, terrible defense, but their offense should be enough to make up for any trouble Tebow might give them. With that, the coverage can be at least lessened. Because it will never die.
Pick: Patriots win, Broncos cover (what, you thought I would bet against Tebow again? Have to hedge, in case this somehow gets worse.)


Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)


This is the least compelling of the divisional games. The Texans beat a limping Bengals team last week in their first ever playoff game. Props to them; Arian Foster played exceptionally well, and TJ Yates didn't do so poorly at quarterback. Unfortunately for the Texans, they now travel to play the Ravens, whose defense is leagues better than the Bengals. The only worry the Ravens might have is their offense, which has been wildly inconsistent and lags when they decided to lean on Joe Flacco. The Texans have an impressive defense, but might wilt under the pressure of winning this game for the Texans. If the Ravens stick to a game plan heavy on Ray Rice and play the solid defense they've played all year, they should win easily. This is the playoffs, and the Ravens will be playing up for this one (since all year they've played up or down to their opponents). The Ravens might be the most complete team in the AFC field, and I like them here.
Pick: Ravens win, cover


NY Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)


There are plenty of people jumping on the Giants bandwagon here, seeing them as a trendy upset pick of the dominant Packers. I can't join on board. The Packers have one of the worst defenses of all time, but still have the potential to create timely turnovers every game. And their offense? Well, if the back up QB can pilot them to 45 points, without their number one receiver (Greg Jennings), you know you have a special unit. The Giants have the ability to put obscene amounts of pressure of Aaron Rodgers due to their ever-formidable offensive line; but their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. Rodgers is particularly adept at avoiding pressure (unlike, say, Tom Brady) and can throw with ridiculous accuracy even on the run. The Packers offense will be able to score, no doubt. The Giants boast a great passing attack as well, but are more prone to turnovers on offense. This game should be a shootout, with two teams trading points. And while the Giants should be able to get some stops with the pass rush, the Packers should be able to get at least a turnover, and maybe some stops, and let Aaron Rodgers do his work. This will be a battle of attrition, and, in the end, Aaron Rodgers will simply have too much firepower for the Giants to keep up with.
Pick: Packers win, Giants cover


Playoffs: 3-1 Overall, 2-2 ATS

NFL Wildcard Picks

Finally, the playoffs are here, so I don't  have to worry about the Buffalo Bills anymore. Especially after they finished their season with a classic punch in the gut game. Even when they were up 21-0, somehow I knew they would lose. And it still sucked to watch. I finished the season with an 11-5 overall week and a 6-9-1 ATS record, after a Week 16 total of 9-7 Overall/ 8-8 ATS. For the whole season, I was 168-88 overall and 124-126-5 ATS (all figures approximate). Dang. My overall picks were good, but still couldn't go above .500 against the spread. Well, better luck next year, and in the playoffs. Wild Card playoff games are always good- you know something crazy is going to happen (see: Seahawks over Saints last year).


Cincinnati at Houston (-4)
We've got two rookie quarterbacks here, with the threat of Jake Delhomme (or Jeff Garcia!) looming for the Texans. As much as that should be the equivalent of playoff suicide for the Texans, they've lucked out in facing the Bengals, this year's quintessential "luck of the schedule Gods" team. The Bengals haven't beat a playoff team this year- with a loss to the Tebow-less Broncos, two apiece to the Ravens and Steelers, a close loss the 49ers, and a loss to the Texans earlier. If you have to find their "best" win, it's either their win over the Titans or a win over the Bills-when-they-were-good. The Texans, despite being on a little slide into the playoffs, have the rushing attack and a hopefully healthy Andre Johnson, and a defense that is still near elite even without Mario Williams. The Bengals have the better rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton, but the worse overall offense and defense. I expect the Bengals to be able to hang around in this game, thanks to AJ Green, but to actually win this game? They haven't done it yet, so why believe it now?
Pick: Texans win, Bengals cover


Detroit at New Orleans (-10.5)
You're not beating New Orleans at home. Sorry. Drew Brees is too efficient and ridiculously good at home, and he ended the season in MVP form. The Lions have a great offense (even without any semblance of a run game), but their defense doesn't have the chops to stop an elite offense. For instance, we'll take last week, when the Lions gave up 480 yards and 6 touchdowns to Matt Flynn, the Packers backup QB. This is Drew Brees' turn, and he should be able to put up numbers as good. The only reason I can't pick the Saints to win and cover is their porous, turnover dependent defense isn't going to completely hold down Calvin Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Something like 45-35 seems right to me- not close, but close enough for a Lions cover.
Pick: Saints win, Lions cover.


Atlanta at NY Giants (-3)
Have you ever sat back and said "Wow, those Falcons sure are good!" No, you haven't. They're a consistent team that are better than most of the NFL, but against great teams, great defenses or on the road, they never jump out at you. In essence, this is a team that can get you to the playoffs, but I could never see them as Super Bowl Champions. The Giants rollercoaster-ed their way through the season, peaks and valleys. They've finished the season peaking, winning the must-win, high pressure games with panache. They have a QB in Eli Manning who flirts with elite status and has a knack for 4th quarter, game winning or game-icing drives, and a dangerous wide receiver group. The defense rushes the passer so well; Matt Ryan should be getting ready to become quite cozy with the cold New York turf. The Giants defense is nothing special against the pass, and their run game won't blow anyone away, but their best is better than the Falcons best. Add in home field advantage and I see the Giants taking it over the good-but-never-great Falcons.
Pick: Giants win, cover


Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Denver
You can't have honestly watched the last three weeks and confidently pick the Broncos. The Bills- THE BILLS- were able to hold the Broncos to 14 points and pick off Tebow 3 times (plus a interception that was changed into a fumble). Last I checked, my 8th grade flag football team could score 21 against the Bills. He threw for 60 yards against the Chiefs. That's in four quarters. Simply put, teams have figured him out. You don't blitz him too much (or else he'll run), cover everyone, let him stay in the pocket, and keep a spy on him in case he rolls left to throw. In addition, the defense has lost some of their stinginess- they aren't quite as dominant. The Steelers have a crippled Ben Roethlisberger at QB, their main running back tore his ACL, and their leading tackler can't play because of sickle cell anemia. Despite all this, their defense is good enough to stop Tebow and the Broncos- in fact, they're more than good enough. And even if the Broncos put in Brady Quinn (Tebow has a short leash this week), it would be laughably not enough to beat the Steelers. The Steelers offense doesn't have to be great to win this- they just have to be decent, and Peg-Leg Roethlisberger should be able to put together something. Seeing as the Steelers are so hampered, though, I'm hedging and saying the Broncos can stay within a touchdown.
Pick: Steelers win, Broncos cover

Week 17 New Years Picks

Eagles (-7.5) at Redskins
Building teams through free agency: you're doing it wrong. Either way, the Eagles have more talent all over the field than the Redskins. In a meaningless game, that's what I'm going with.
Pick: Eagles win, cover


Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-9)
Atlanta still has something to play for, while the Buccaneers have redefined the word "fluke" with their performance this year after going 10-6 last year.
Pick: Falcons win, cover

San Francisco (-11.5) at St. Louis
San Francisco is playing for a first round bye. The Rams are close to the Number One pick in the draft. Not hard to figure this one.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Chicago at Minnesota (-2.5)
Josh McNown was slightly better than Caleb Hanie last week for the Bears. That sentence alone can pretty much sum up the dark turn the Bears season has taken. The Vikings, even without Adrian Peterson, have been playing better under Joe Webb lately.
Pick: Vikings win, cover

Detroit (-6.5) at Green Bay
Tough to figure this one, but with the Packers second stringers in for a good portion of the game, and with seeding possibilities for the Lions (they could avoid the Saints and play the Giants or Cowboys), I've got the Lions winning a close one.
Pick: Lions win, Packers cover

Dallas at NY Giants (-3)
The Giants finally seem to have screwed their heads on right, and in that mode, they're a dangerous team. The Cowboys lost their running game with DeMarco Murray's broken ankle, and you still can never trust Tony Romo, especially with an injury.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Carolina at New Orleans (-7)
Saints could be sitting guys by the second half of this one, but their first half effort should be enough to take the game- and who knows, the starters might be in the whole game. Cam Newton and the Panthers can keep it close, though.
Pick: Saints win, Panthers cover

Tennessee (-1) at Houston
The Texans are challenging last year's Seahawks as "worst division winner in the playoffs" now that all their playmakers are injured. TJ Yates isn't cutting it. Titans have a lot to play for, and seem like they could be the crappy sixth seed of this year's playoffs-meaning they'd play the Texans again.
Pick: Titans win, cover

Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati
The Ravens play down to their opponents on the road, especially against physical teams. The Bengals are at home (offering two for one tickets!) and play especially physically. Andy Dalton is taking them to the playoffs! (Words I never thought I'd say.)
Pick: Bengals win, cover

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland
Steelers still have a shot at a first round bye. The Browns are still terrible.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3)
The Colts should be able to fulfill their manifest destiny and clinch the number one overall pick. The Jaguars are probably really happy with the Blaine Gabbert pick right now.... (laughter)
Pick: Jaguars win, Colts cover

NY Jets at Miami (-3)
The Dolphins! They're definitely good enough to beat the overrated, overhyped Jets. I swear, if the stars align and the Jets are in the playoffs, I'm going to have a conniption fit.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover

Buffalo at New England (-10.5)
It would be awesome if the Bills found a way to sweep the Patriots this year and somewhat redeem what has been a trainwreck of a season. Unfortunately, they'll probably close out the season with another grim loss.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

San Diego at Oakland (-3)
This must be the most underachieving Chargers team of the past decade, and that's saying something. The Raiders are somehow still alive, and there would be nothing better than seeing Carson Palmer screw up a home playoff game with three interceptions.
Pick: Raiders win, cover

Kansas City at Denver (-2)
The Chiefs were able to shut down Aaron Rodgers; Tim Tebow was shut down by the Bills and Patriots, two of the worst defenses in the league. The Chiefs should be able to take care of Tebow and let Kyle Orton get his revenge.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover

Seattle at Arizona (-2.5)
Seattle figured out that they're a running team and rode Marshawn Lynch to near playoff contention. Arizona rode John Skelton to near playoff contention. I've gotta give it to Beast Mode here.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover

Week 16 Christmas Picks

Another in a series of Sad Fitz photos

Merry Christmas, y'all. I'm writing this one from the heart of Dolphins country, South Florida. The weather's nice, and the team is better than the Bills. Buffalo really is cursed. Once again, missed the Thursday Night Pick. Would've gone Texans win, Colts cover, so at least I got an ATS win. As for the last two weeks (I forgot to tally up the Week 14 picks), 13-3 Overall and 7-9 ATS for Week 14; 9-7 overall and 6-9-1 ATS for Week 15. Yikes against the spread, folks, but at least I can pick winners.


Oakland at  Kansas City (-2.5)
Oakland's gone through a horrible slide and their bet that they could make the playoffs with Carson Palmer is looking like a huge mistake. Good thing this team won't have a number one pick for the next two years to get any better! As for the Chiefs, they just beat the Packers and have some serious momentum under Romeo Crennel (yes, I was very wrong about him last week. The Chiefs definitely hated Todd Haley). The AFC West is basically a crapshoot, so, of course, the Chiefs will take this one to further muddle the picture.
Pick: Kansas City wins, covers


Denver (-2.5) at Buffalo
Do you really think Tim Tebow is going to lose on the eve of the birth of his savior? Do you really think the Bills can compete against the Broncos' great running game and defense? Absolutely not. It might not be pretty, but the Broncos should win pretty easily. The only way this would not happen is if the Bills pulled a classic 'Bills' move and won out and got a worse draft pick because of it. (*long, exasperated sigh on behalf of all Bills fans). Still, losing seems more likely.
Pick: Broncos win, cover


Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)
The Titans just lost to the Colts last week and they're getting seven over a just as good Jaguars team? Sorry, can't trust the Titans to comfortably win this one. The Jacksonville defense is good enough to hamper a middling Titans offense for long enough in the game to keep it close. The Jaguars just won't be able to win because of Blaine Gabbert's bad quarterbacking, throwing to the worst corps of receivers in the league.
Pick: Titans win, Jaguars cover


Arizona at Cincinnati (-4.5)
The Bengals have faded a bit since their hot start, as their schedule has become increasingly difficult. The Cardinals have gone on a mini run to get back into longshot playoff contention behind proto-Tebow John Skelton. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they're away from home, and the Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives and are overall a better team. It'll stay close, but I like the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals win, Cardinals cover


Miami at New England (-9.5)
New England's been great this season, what with their fancy two tight end offense that masks their terrible defense. But I love the Dolphins- Reggie Bush is finally living up to his potential, Matt Moore has a weird connection with Brandon Marshall, and the defense is very good. I like the Patriots to take this by sheer dint of their offense, but I think the Dolphins will make it pretty interesting.
Pick: New England wins, Miami covers


Cleveland at Baltimore (-12.5)
The Ravens have a chance to clinch their division this week, and the Browns are still the Browns: nothing to see here. The Ravens have had a terrible habit of playing down to opponents, but were able to smack down the Browns last time they played, so I'm hesitantly picking the Ravens to cover as well as win.
Pick: Ravens win, cover


NY Giants "at" NY Jets (-3)
I hate both these teams, picks wise, because they are maddeningly inconsistent. I guess I'll pick based on either team's best possible performance; and in that case, I like the offense of the Giants and their pass rushing defense better than the Jet's ground and pound offense and not-as-good-as-the-hype defense.
Pick: Giants win, cover


Minnesota at Washington (-7)
The Redskins have made something of their previously doomed season behind the resurgence of Rex Grossman and a slightly better running game. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson back, though, and the Redskins aren't great on defense, so I see the Redskins victimizing the Viking's poor pass defense and the Vikings making a game out of it before ultimately losing.
Pick: Redskins win, Vikings cover


Tampa Bay at Carolina (-7.5)
While Tampa Bay has been pretty bad this season, the Panthers haven't been nearly good enough for me to trust them with 7.5 points. It should be a close battle between these two NFC South also-rans, and I like Cam Newton and the Panthers to win, but the Bucs will stick around.
Pick: Panthers win, Buccaneers cover


St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-12.5)
Charlie Batch always comes in and plays decently for the Steelers, and that should be quite enough against the Rams, who have been the most disappointing team of the season. Remember when we all thought the Rams would take the NFC West? Ha!
Pick: Steelers win, cover


San Diego at Detroit (-2)
I wish I wasn't getting tricked into another Chargers late season run, but here they are, and here I am, picking them to beat a Lions team that only has a playoff chance because Matt Forte and Jay Culter got injured. Feel like I might hate this pick, but here goes: Chargers win.
Pick: Chargers win, cover


San Francisco (-1) at Seattle 
If the spread wasn't just a point, I would pick the Seahawks to cover, because they're at home and have been playing increasingly well. The 49ers shocked me in dismantling the Steelers last week (albeit without a healthy Ben Roethlisberger), but I don't think they'll find this game quite easy. Still, they should win, probably on a Akers field goal or something.
Pick: 49ers win, cover


Philadelphia at Dallas (-1)
The Eagles have finally stopped making the dumb mistakes that led them to their horrible start. The Cowboys seem long overdue for another Romo-led collapse. Plus, the Eagles have been playing lights out recently. Dallas' defense is horrible against the pass, got beat by a worse version of this Eagles team already, and the offense is still sometimes wonky thanks to Romo. Like the Eagles here, even if the game becomes meaningless for them with a Giants win.
Pick: Eagles win, cover


Chicago at Green Bay (-11.5)
Green Bay may have lost last week, but they're still far and away the best offense in the league. The Bears are starting Cade Josh McNown at quarterback, so even with all the motivation in the world to beat the hated Packers, I don't see them being able to keep up.
Pick: Packers win, Bears cover


Atlanta at New Orleans (-7)
Anyone watching Drew Brees lately should know that this doesn't even seem fair. The Saints offense has been ridiculous lately, and as much as the Falcons wish they had the same kind of firepower, Matt Ryan is no Drew Brees. Both defenses aren't that good, so it'll come down to the offense, and the Saints have a clear advantage.
Pick: Saints cover, win 


Season: 148-76 overall, 110-109-5 ATS

Week 15 NFL Picks- the Return of Losman!

J.P Losman makes his triumphant return to Buffalo!

Hi Folks. Sorry to have missed the Thursday and Saturday Night games, but, on the mystical honor code once again, I would've gone 2-0 overall and against the spread. It's not that impressive a feat, considering both those games were huge mismatches. Let's quickly get into Week 15. I can't really muster any excitement for the season anymore with this Bills losing streak. Getting up on Sundays is a chore. Let's go on ahead.

Washington at NY Giants (-6.5)
The Giants finally got off the schneid and won a close game with the Cowboys, giving the Giants control of the NFC East. The Giants are prone to disappointing performances coming off big wins, and the Redskins have hung around in their games lately, but I don't see the Giants letting up now that the division title is within their grasp.
Pick: Giants win, cover


Green Bay (-14.5) at Kansas City
Kansas City just fired their coach, and now the venerable Romeo Crennel steps in just in time to face off against the juggernaut that is the 2011 Packers. No amount of new coach motivation will be able to lift the Chiefs above their mediocrity to even keep up with the Packers.
Pick: Packers win, cover


New Orleans (-7.5) at Minnesota
The Saints are rolling right now, with Drew Brees on pace to destroy Dan Marino's single season passing yards record and an offense explosive enough to hide their poor defense. The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the league, Adrian Peterson is only just returning from injury, and Christian Ponder is still the quarterback. It should be pretty easy for the Saints in this one. 
Pick: Saints win, cover


Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)
Is Caleb Hanie still starting for the Bears? Yes? Well I certainly can't pick them. The offense without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte is effectively dead. No matter how good the defense is, the offense can't put up enough to win every week; the Seahawks are on a mini-run and have Marshawn Lynch in beast mode right now, and should be able to get enough points to beat the decrepit Bears offense.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover


Miami at Buffalo (-1.5)
Maybe I'm still too hopeful about the Bills, but I still think they should be able to beat J.P. Losman. A loss here would be the final blow on my psyche. The Bills offense is very hit or miss, and could hit, and the Dolphins offense should struggle under Losman (I've seen enough Losman games to predict this- watch for a backbreaking interception or three!)
Pick: Bills win, cover


Carolina at Houston (-6)
Houston's found a way to grind out victories against any opponent without Matt Schaub or Andre Johnson behind a great defense and running game. The Panthers have Cam Newton and a terrible defense. It won't be the most exciting win, but the Texans will take this one handily, even if the highlights are focused on Newton's exploits.
Pick: Texans win, cover


Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis 
The Titans aren't even that good, but the Colts are very bad. I'm still hedging my bets here, because it's hard to go 0-16 in this league, and if the Colts were going to win any game, this might well be it. These winless teams always come out and shock one team a year... and why not the Titans? I'm not betting on it, but I could see it.
Pick: Titans win, Colts cover


Cincinnati (-7) at St.Louis
The Rams have been atrocious all season, despite their one shining moment win over the Saints. The Bengals have struggled against quality opponents this year, but they finally get a break here. The Bengals are in the thick of the playoff race, need this win, and will take care of business of the hapless Rams.
Pick: Bengals win, cover


Detroit (-1) at Oakland
Both these teams are poorly coached, ceding way too many penalties per game in an effort to be 'tough' or 'nasty.' It's only intimidating until it costs you points, or a game, which has happened to both of these teams. Based on their recent runs, I'll go with the Lions, because the Raiders have been atrocious lately. Plus, Ndamukong Suh is back to stomp on more people!
Pick: Lions win, cover


New England (-7.5) at Denver 
Tim Tebow has gotten his seven wins against teams with decent to bad offenses. The Patriots have one of the best offenses in the league, although their defense lets teams hang around too long. While Tebow should be able to keep the Broncos close, the Patriots offense will be too much for the Broncos defense (the real key to Tebow's success), limiting any more 'miracles' from Tebow. Finally.
Pick: Patriots win, Broncos cover


NY Jets (-3) at Philadelphia 
The Jets have managed to become playoff contenders behind a strong running game and their typically tough defense; still, I don't see them as a really good team as long as Mark Sanchez is still at QB. The Eagles have underachieved all season, are still hanging by a thread in the NFC East race, and have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. I might be once again going down with this infuriating team, but I like the Eagles here.
Pick: Eagles win, cover


Cleveland at Arizona (-6.5)
John Skelton is even more Tebow-y than Tebow, in that he just wins game and he doesn't even have Tebow's run ability. The Cardinals are also inexplicably very good at home. Once again, I can't come up with anything about the Browns, who remain steadfast in losing ugly. Cleveland! Feel the excitement!
Pick: Cardinals win, cover


Baltimore (-2.5) at San Diego
San Diego has rattled off two straight wins against crappy opponents; now they're up against the Ravens, who have a real defense and an efficient offense. The Chargers haven't shown they can win against a good team yet, and Baltimore will be able to grind out a win here.
Pick: Ravens win, cover


Pittsburgh at San Francisco (-3)
While the 49ers are built in the same vein as the Ravens, a team that has beat the Steelers twice this season, I thought the 49ers-Ravens game exposed the 49ers fatal flaw- they're too safe on offense. On 3rd and long, they were running draw plays, trying to prevent turnovers. The Steelers have a good enough offense to score points on the 49ers defense (probably through the air), and the defense should be able to shut down the extremely conservative 49ers offense- field goals will not be enough for the 49ers, and that means a rare 49ers loss.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Week 14 NFL Picks: The Wave of Apathy

Sad Fitz sums up the season thus far

Welcome to Week 14, folks, where good games go to die. There's only one game this week between teams that could be considered good- Cowboys vs Giants- and that's about it. The rest is either big mismatches or horrible teams having to play one another. Even better, the Bills continue in their five game losing streak, which is really brightening up my holiday season. So, to this week, I give a big ol' "meh." On to the picks. Last week I was 12-4 Overall and 9-7 ATS, which continues the trend of good overall, decent against the spread. Hey, it's not my money you're hypothetically spending.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5)


Here's one of the 'massive mismatch' games of the week, as the winless Colts take on the occasionally transcendent Ravens. I would usually take the Ravens to cover, but given their propensity to play down to their opponents, and the Colts spirited backdoor cover of the Patriots last week, I can't put my full weight behind the Ravens coming out and winning by at least 17. The Ravens love to make things interesting, no matter who the opponent is. Side note: With the way things are going now, I can't wait to see NFL Films Season Recap film for the 2011 Colts. The pinnacle of the season is a seven point loss to the Patriots, with swelling orchestra music behind it.
Pick: Ravens win, Colts cover


Houston at Cincinnati (-3)


Houston, without QB/WR duo Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, have managed to win football games the old fashioned way- run the ball and play great defense. Heck, even TJ Yates looked half decent last week. The Bengals have faltered a little bit now that they've started playing good teams; the offense has been exposed as limited and the defense, without CB Leon Hall, has struggled to completely contain offenses. With that in mind, I like the Texans to take this one with a steady diet of Arian Foster and a stifling D that should shut down the Bengals "Huck it to AJ Green" offense.
Pick:Texans win, cover


Oakland at Green Bay (-12)


Oakland is still without Darren McFadden, the running back that made the offense explosive, and the defense let the Dolphins destroy them last week. The Packers faced their hardest test remaining last week in a close game with the Giants, still managing to win despite Aaron Rodgers only playing merely "well" instead of his usual "ridiculous." The Raiders don't have the weapons on either side of the ball to really challenge the Packers, which means another week of effortless perfection by the Packers. They make it look so easy, don't they?
Pick: Packers win, cover


Kansas City at NY Jets (-10.5)


Tyler Palko was bad enough to get benched last week, but finagled his way back in after Kyle Orton hurt his finger. His only touchdown so far was a goofy Hail Mary last week. The rest of it has set back the art of quarterbacking 50 years or so. The Jets have their own terrible quarterback, but he has a solid running game and a good defense surrounding him, so they get by just fine.
Pick: Jets win, cover


Minnesota at Detroit (-9.5)


The Lions have barely fared better than the Bills have after their hot start, going 2-5 after a 5-0 start. Their offense has no running game at this point, and teams can shift coverage onto Calvin Johnson and effectively shut down the passing offense. On defense, the Lions are still without Ndamukong Suh (suspension) and are otherwise unimpressive on defense (Nick Fairley's made a huge difference, huh?) The Vikings aren't any better, of course, and they're still without Adrian Peterson, but all I'm saying is, I don't get the ten point spread here-the Lions aren't that good. The Lions should still win, but it will hardly be dominating.
Pick: Lions win, Vikings cover


New Orleans (-3.5) at Tennessee

The Saints have had some trouble on the road this season, especially against inferior opponents, but they seem to be on a roll right now. Drew Brees is playing absurdly well right now, the running game has kind of shown up, and the defense isn't bad enough to get them in trouble. After watching the Titans last week, I'm less than impressed- the defense isn't especially good, and the offense will have trouble keeping up with the Saints, especially if Chris Johnson can't get it going. The Saints should be able to end their road woes here, and perhaps hurt the Titans' chances at a wild card or the AFC South.
Pick: Saints win, cover


Philadelphia at Miami (-3)


Even with Michael Vick back under center for the Eagles, can you really trust the Bizarro Eagles? All season they've completely underwhelmed expectations at every turn, exposing a horrible defense (turns out hiring an offensive coordinator for the defensive coordinator job doesn't work) and an offense that seems like the playcaller doesn't want the team to score. LeSean McCoy, perhaps the best running back in the NFL this season, spends pockets of the game ignored while the offense runs another deep pass to DeSean Jackson, who doesn't even look back for the ball before it's picked off. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have spend the last four weeks just winning football games behind a solid defense and a weirdly explosive offense. I'll take that any day over the failed potential of the Eagles.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover


New England (-8) at Washington


New England keeps taking care of business: another three touchdowns for Tom Brady (all thrown to Rob Gronkowski) and a defense that's found a way to bend but not break. The Redskins are running business as usual, but only in the Bluth Company sense- completely dysfunctional. Top tight end Fred Davis, for instance, was just suspended four games for an offseason drug test that came up positive, giving a whole new meaning to the label "Offseason Champs" that the Redskins usually get. The ruthless efficiency of the Patriots should be more than enough to take down the Rex Grossman led, falling apart Redskins.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


Atlanta (-3) at Carolina


The Falcons continue to be the best boring team in the NFL, while the Panthers manage to be the worst exciting team in the league. Unfortunately for Cam Newton and all his exciting plays, the defense is basically non existent. The Falcons should be able to plod their way down the field enough times to pull out the victory here, while the Panthers will win in style points alone.
Pick: Falcons win, cover


Tampa Bay (-3) at Jacksonville


Oh God, this is not a fun game to even think about. The Jaguars have a pretty good defense that has been eroded by defense, and Blaine Gabbert seems to be regressing from week to week, probably because he doesn't have any receivers to throw to; they might as well put Air Bud out there. Tampa has a terrible defense, but the offense can be decent, provided that Josh Freeman plays. And, lucky for them, the Jaguars don't have enough on offense to challenge them (sorry, just Maurice Jones Drew is not enough). In the battle of "Not South Florida," I'll go with Tampa, but I hope I don't have to watch a second of it. (Though I would watch if the Bucs kept wearing their Creamsicle Orange jerseys)
Pick: Buccaneers win, cover


San Francisco (-4) at Arizona 


Arizona is only getting four points here because of their home field advantage, but, unlike the Cowboys, the 49ers don't have some sort of jinx in Arizona. The 49ers will do their usual 49ers thing- great defense, run the ball, and kick field goals. Arizona will counter with "Kevin Kolb just wings it for 60 minutes, hope the other team ices their own kicker, and randomly win in OT," but that's not a blueprint for long term success. Just like acquiring Kevin Kolb as your quarterback of the future.
Pick: 49ers win, cover


Chicago at Denver (-3.5)


Last week I said that Caleb Hanie was a lot better than Donovan McNabb. Oops! Caleb Hanie is awful, and the Bears have lost Matt Forte for the next couple of weeks. This leaves Chicago without an offense, basically. Now they have to face a suddenly nasty Denver Broncos defense, which won't help matters. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have this quarterback you might've heard about, and he plays well at the end of football games, and wins most of them. The Bears still have a great defense and wicked special teams, but their lack of offense will not be enough to keep up with whatever Tim Tebow is able to pull out at the end of this one.
Pick: Broncos win, cover


Buffalo at San Diego (-7)


Sigh. Last week, I ranted about how much I hated the Chargers and how they were basically the AFC version of the Eagles, and then they go out and trounce the Jaguars. The Bills continued to show their 2010 form in another "close but no cigar" loss last week to the Titans. The Chargers have far from a great defense, meaning the Bills could theoretically stick around, but the Chargers weapons on offense should be more than enough to beat a Swiss Cheese Bills defense. It feels like it will be a classic "Bills stick around and then lose in the end" game, which should mean another great Sunday for me. Hoo-ray. It's not too early to think of draft position, is it?
Pick: Chargers win, Bills cover


NY Giants at Dallas (-4)


The Giants just gave the Packers the hardest game they've played in months, while Dallas just choked away a game against the lowly Cardinals. And yet this is the spread? I'll happily take the Giants to win, then- they have a better offense and an at least equal defense to the Cowboys, and Tony Romo has infected the rest of the Cowbiys with a case of the choke-sies- even their coach. It's hard to believe, but Eli Manning has put together a top 10 (or even top 5) season this year, and that should continue against a vulnerable Cowboys defense.
Pick: Giants win, cover


St. Louis at Seattle (-10)


Remember when these two teams played for the division last season? Ha! While the Seahawks stick around in the playoff race (improbably), the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season. Now they're starting their third string quarterback, who I won't even make the effort of looking up. To add to that, they have a historically bad run defense, meaning Marshawn Lynch should be able to get all BEAST MODE against them. Oh yeah, the Seahawks are at home as well, where they have an obscene advantage. So yeah, the Seahawks should take this one pretty easily.
Picks: Seahawks win, cover


Also, I swear, at one point, I will weigh in on Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, The Bulls, Albert Pujols, the Cubs, and OH YEAH the Sabres. Once I have time.

Season:126-66 Overall, 97-91-4 ATS

Week 14 Thursday Night Pick

Pretty simple: (Won't get into any details of how I did last weekend. Without thinking, pretty good? More on Sunday.)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)


It's Cleveland. They have no weapons on offense besides a barely-invested Peyton Hillis. Their defense has been decent-to-good all season, enough to make most of their games extremely boring- their offense doesn't score, and they prevent the opponent from scoring too much. Fortunately, the Steelers have enough fire power to beat the Browns defense, and the Steelers D shouldn't be challenged all too much. All that makes me think it'll be smooth sailing for the Steelers. Another great game on the NFL Network! (They get the last choice every week!)
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Week 13 NFL Picks, Just in Time

Stevie Johnson, When it Counts.

Happy Sunday everyone! I'll get through this semi-quickly, since I'm running out of time. Last week, I went 11-5 Overall and 8-8 ATS, which is for all accounts pretty decent. (And I nailed the Thursday Night pick this week!) I don't even want to talk that much about the Bills; I'll get to that in the picks. Sorry, no huge theme for the column. Just picks. It's final exams time.

Tennessee at Buffalo (-1)


Last week was a pretty classic sucker punch Bills loss. The team came out and actually played well against the Jets, seemingly saying, "Oh, you thought we were going to just get blown out? No! We're going to play well and make this loss even more infuriating!" Just when you think it's done, they pull you back in. (As a side note: I thought Stevie Johnson's TD celebration was hilarious, going to the ground and drawing a flag was not, along with Dave Rayner's inability to kick off correctly. And Stevie's drop in the clutch? Well, no one likes that, and if he wants #1 receiver money, he has to perform in the clutch.) Anyway, I'm not getting suckered into picking the Bills again. The Titans have a division title to play for now that TJ Yates is starting at QB for the Texans, and the Bills still have no defense and a streaky offense. It might be close, but not seeing the Bills winning this one; they've destroyed my homerism this season.
Pick: Titans win, cover


Kansas City at Chicago (-7.5)


Donovan McNabb could be starting for the Bears and I'd still pick them. Tyler Palko is that bad as the Chiefs' QB. The Bears have the defense and special teams to get it done; Caleb Hanie needs to just hand off to Matt Forte and limit mistakes, and it should be smooth sailing for the Bears. Also, Bears fans hoping to sign Donovan McNabb- really? Why would you want that ever? McNabb, at this point, is leagues away from Hanie. Not worth it.
Pick: Bears win, cover


Oakland at Miami (-3.5)


Miami is actually pretty good. Matt Moore is inexplicably playing well, and the defense, which was very good last year, has returned to that form. Oakland won mostly on field goals last week against a weakened Bears team; and they're coming on a cross country flight. I'll take the Fins to win and further shake up the AFC West division race.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)


Cinci just barely scraped by the Browns last week, and now come into Pittsburgh. The Bengals still have a good shot at the playoffs, but I can't see them beating an elite team like the Steelers. Steelers have too many weapons on offense and a better defense than the Bengals. The Bengals will stick around, but eventually, the cream rises to the top.
Pick: Steelers win, Bengals cover


Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland


The Ravens just came off a big win against the 49ers; and here comes the inevitable letdown against a crappy opponent that has characterized the Ravens this season. The Browns remain the most uninteresting team in the NFL; literally nothing jumps out at me to talk about. The Ravens have to break out of this play-down-to-their-opponent funk sometime (their coach has been preaching it this week), and I guess I'll go with this week as the one. Although I could definitely be cursing this when it's 13-3 Browns in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Ravens win, Browns cover


NY Jets (-3) at Washington


The Jets are still not that good; Mark Sanchez had the worst 4-TD quarterback performance I've ever seen, and the defense is not impenetrable anymore. Good for the Jets, the Redskins are still pretty bad, despite Rex Grossman's good play the last three weeks. Can't see Rex doing much better than Fitz did last week against the Jets, and the Redskins have a defense that's as good as the Bills- which all leads to another Jets win. As much as it pains me to say.
Pick: Jets win, cover

Atlanta (-1.5) at Houston

Welcome to the T.J Yates era in Houston! Can't think of anyone successful who goes by the name "T.J"in the adult world- so that's never a good sign. The Falcons should be able to stack the box and prevent the Texans run game from taking over the game, forcing Yates to throw. On offense, the Falcons offense goes against the newly tough Houston defense. In the end, I think the Falcons offense will be able to have more success against the Texans defense than vice-versa. Which leads to a Falcons win, but I doubt it will be that easy.
Pick: Falcons win, cover


Carolina (-1.5) at Tampa Bay


Since I'm writing this an hour before the games begin, I get the benefit of knowing that Josh Freeman is out for this game. Which means that an already stagnant Bucs offense will be worse off. The Panthers have no defense, but against Josh Johnson, it won't matter as much. Cam Newton will be able to get it done against a mediocre Tampa defense, and we've got ourselves a fourth Carolina win. Oh yeah, Josh Freeman injured himself because he went to a firing range with an injured thumb on his throwing hand and decided to shoot with a DESERT EAGLE. This story should be much bigger.
Pick: Panthers win, cover


Detroit at New Orleans (-9)


The Lions are without Sir-Foot-Stomper Suh, and their defense already wasn't that good with him on the field. A week after being lit up by Aaron Rodgers, well, Drew Brees comes into town, and it won't be much prettier. Brees is well on his way to breaking Marino's season-passing-yards record, and the Lions won't be a hiccup in that chase. The Lions are still woefully one dimensional on offense (chuck it to Calvin Johnson!), and they will not be able to keep up with Brees and the Saints.
Pick: Saints win, cover


Denver (-1) at Minnesota


Denver is without Von Miller (another benefit to writing so late!), meaning the defense that has kept Tim Tebow is every game will not be quite as good. Lucky for them, Adrian Peterson is still out for the Vikings, and Christian Ponder isn't quite lighting up the stat sheet these days. Once again, Tebow should be able to pull this one out; one they play a good offense without Von Miller, this might be a different story.
Pick: Broncos win, cover


St. Louis at San Francisco (-14)


Yep. St. Louis is that bad, San Francisco has a chance to clinch the division. The NFC West: Clinched by Week 13! And it's not even close!
Pick: 49ers win, cover


Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona 


Dallas, for some reason, sucks at Arizona, but Kevin Kolb is returning for the Cardinals, and yes, it's a bad thing when he returns as starting QB. He's taken the crown of "ill advised back foot throws" from Jay Cutler. Dallas will probably win this game; they have more talent all over the field; but I'll take the Cardinals to cover, just in case Dallas continues to struggle in Arizona.
Pick: Cowboys win, Cardinals cover


Green Bay (-6.5) at NY Giants


Remember what Drew Brees did to the Giants last week? Aaron Rodgers has been better than Brees this season; this should be a cakewalk for Rodgers and the Packers' extremely efficient offense. The Giants are not as bad as previous Giants team that swooned in December; I still see them grabbing the division or a wild card. This week, though, will not be pretty.
Pick: Packers win, cover


Indianapolis at New England (-20.5)


Peyton Manning for MVP! There's the effect of not having Manning this year- the Patriots are twenty point favorites, and I'm very willing to take that spread, especially now that Dan Orlovsky is under center for the Colts. They might as well just put their punter at QB; it would be just as apparent that they have no interest in winning games this year.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville


Screw the Chargers. I'm done believing in the talent this team as long as Norv Turner is still the coach. Jacksonville should be energized under their new coach and still have a great defense. Enough for me to believe that they can pull out a win over the underachieving, listless Chargers.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover






Season:114-62 Overall, 88-84-4 ATS (not including Thursday's results)

Battle of the Birds Thursday Night Pick

Thursday Night Football comes off a great Thanksgiving Night game to give us...this. Eagles-Seahawks. Yet again, how could any TV executive think this is a good game before the season started? Does the NFL Network get like the 8th pick for its' games? Well, anyway,

Philadelphia (-3) at Seattle


I know Seattle's pretty bad, but they do have a pretty hefty home field advantage, and they run the ball consistently, if not always well. The defense is pretty good against the run, with a crappy pass defense. The Eagles have been underperforming all season, looking less than impressive in most games. With Vince Young under center instead of Mike Vick, they've hardly looked any better. The short week should aid the Seahawks (the underdogs have performed better in the Thursday Night games so far), and they have a good enough run defense to limit LeSean McCoy, the most productive Eagle. The Eagles have a bad run defense, and the Seahawks should be successfully pounding the ball with Marshawn Lynch. While I have trouble trusting either team, I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Seahawks win, further torpedoing the Eagles season.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover

Week 12 NFL Picks: Yes, It's All Downhill from Here

CJ Spiller steps into the spotlight this week

In my last post, I posited that the Bills were basically doomed from this point onwards, and little hope remained for a playoff run. Well, with the distressing news of Fred Jackson's season ending leg injury, I can pretty much say that there's no hope for this team. Jackson accounted for 40% of the offense this year. One player! 40%! If the Bills were struggling on offense before this, well, it can't get any better without Jackson. The only silver lining from this development is the chance for CJ Spiller, so far a total bust, to get a starter's workload in the backfield. Who knows, maybe he'll flash the talent that made him the #9 pick. It doesn't look good for the Bills from here, though.

Anyway, I failed to make my Thanksgiving picks because I was traveling, but I would've gone (cross my heart, hope to die) Packers win, Lions cover; Cowboys win, Dolphins cover; Ravens win, cover. Which puts me at 3-0 overall and 2-1 ATS for this week. Or I'm a big, filthy liar, but that's the honor code for you.

Last week I went 9-5 Overall and 5-7-2 ATS-continuing my streak of good picking overall and poor against the spread. To be fair, it's my first year really picking spreads, and a lot of these games were a lot closer than expected. Anyway, onto the rest of Week 12, in the post Thanksgiving hangover.

Arizona at St. Louis (-2.5) 


Um...(plays eenie-meenie-minie-moe, throws at a dartboard blindfolded...) I'll take the Rams here? Honestly, both of these teams are awful, I wouldn't let any of my loved ones watch this game, and it's near impossible to pick between the two, like picking between spending time in a Turkish prison or the Gulag. In the end, no one is a winner.
Pick: Rams win, cover


Buffalo at NY Jets (-9.5)


The Jets aren't even that good of a team, as evidenced by last week's loss to the Broncos. Their offense is painful- they can't run and Mark Sanchez is still nowhere near a good quarterback.The defense is still very good, but not always enough to pick up the slack for the offense. And I still think they'll crush the Bills in their current state- injured and exposed on both sides of the ball. The Bills will lose this and we can stop pretending they're in the playoff race.
Pick: Jets win, cover


Cleveland at Cincinnati (-7.5)


The Bengals have lost their last two games to the elite of the AFC North, but have shown a lot of resolve in keeping both of those games close; right now, they look like a wild card team. The Browns are mediocre and boring on both sides of the ball; there's just nothing interesting or dangerous about this team. They were good enough to beat an offensively defunct Jaguars team, but I can't see them doing much damage against a stout Bengals defense and a talented offense.
Pick:Bengals win, cover


Houston (-6.5) at Jacksonville 


Houston has lost Matt Schaub for the rest of the season, and now the revered (for his partying) Matt Leinart steps in to take over what looks to be a playoff bound team. Fortunately for the Texans, he won't have to do much- the Texans defense is really good this year, and the run game is what makes the offense work well. Plus, it doesn't hurt that big target Andre Johnson is coming back, giving Leinart a big safety blanket if he needs it. Jacksonville, for all its quality on defense, can't do anything offensively. So even if Leinart crashes and burns, the Jaguars won't be able to benefit from the wreckage, and the Texans should be fine relying on Arian Foster anyways.
Pick: Texans win, cover


Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis


For all the excitement Cam Newton has brought to the Panthers, he's only provided them with two wins (although their porous defense is much to blame as well.) Lucky for him, the Panthers face off against the Colts, a winless team that seems close to resigned to not winning till 2012, with either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck under center. Even with an awful defense on his side, Cam should be able to get it done against the listless Colts.
Pick: Panthers win, cover


Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-3.5)


Both of these teams confuse me; I can't tell what their relative quality is. Both have some offensive issues and mediocre defenses, but manage to hang around in games. Matt Hasselbeck is still the starter for the Titans, despite a Jake Locker appearance last week. As long as Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson are the main players in the Titans offense, I don't trust them much, while Tampa has a young nucleus of offensive players that have struggled this year, but could be breaking out right now. So I'll go with the Bucs here.
Pick: Bucs win, cover


Minnesota at Atlanta (-9.5)


Minnesota is without Adrian Peterson, far-and-away their best offensive threat, and their passing defense is pretty awful. Atlanta has righted the ship after a rocky start, playing their methodical offense and just good enough defense to pull out victories. It ain't always pretty (Julio Jones has brought a modicum of flair to the offense), but against a weak Vikings team, it should be more than enough to win.
Pick:Atlanta wins, cover


Chicago at Oakland (-3.5)


Even without Jay Cutler, the Bears have an astonishingly good special teams unit and a great defense. The offense was always predicated on Matt Forte, so Caleb Hanie's biggest responsibilities will have to be handing it off to Forte or throwing screen passes to Forte. The Raiders have risen above the squalor of the AFC West, but I still don't see them as a great team; their recent wins haven't been against quality teams, and they haven't been dominating in either win. The Bears can survive without Cutler, and this is the start.
Pick: Bears win, cover


Washington at Seattle (-3.5)


Yes, the Redskins were surprisingly competitive last week in taking the Cowboys in overtime, but can you really expect Rex Grossman to be consistently good? No, especially not on the road at the loudest stadium in the NFL, that of the Seahawks. The Seahawks have found an offensive identity in giving Marshawn Lynch the ball 30 times a game, no matter what, and hoping Tavaris Jackson can string together a couple plays of offensive competency. And their defense is OK. The Redskins have a bad defense and a potentially catastrophic offense (depending on which Rex shows up). I'll take consistent mediocrity over potential for mayhem.
Pick: Seattle wins, covers


New England (-3.5) at Philadelphia


The Eagles are yet again without Michael Vick, and while Vince Young's "Tebow" impression was cute last week, I don't see him being able to match an offensively gifted Patriots team. While the Bills defense has gotten worse and worse, the Patriots defense has managed to get better as the season has progressed- the sign of a true contender. The Eagles playoff chances will take a nosedive in this one, while the Patriots will move closer to an AFC East crown.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


Denver at San Diego (-5.5)


Tough to trust either team, as Philip Rivers has been terrible this season and Tim Tebow can't play quarterback well for more than five minutes. The Chargers are all hype with no substance, while the Broncos have a stingy defense to match their overhyped quarterback. The Chargers need this to stay alive in the AFC West, and have to put together a complete game sometime; the Broncos have gotten a little lucky these past five games under Tim Tebow. Something's gotta give, so I give it to the Chargers, though reluctantly.
Pick: Chargers win, Broncos cover


Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City


Tyler Palko is still at QB for the Chiefs, and he led the Chiefs to three whole points last week against an improving, but still weak, Patriots defense. Now he faces the Steelers defense, and they won't be as forgiving (if you consider a field goal forgiving). The Steelers also have a high powered offense as good as the Patriots, and the Patriots were able to put up 34 points against the Chiefs. All told, this should be easy sledding for the Steelers as they challenge the Ravens for the AFC North crown.
Pick: Steelers win, cover


NY Giants at New Orleans (-7)


New Orleans is rested, coming off a bye, and have what is probably the second best offense in the league (behind Green Bay's.) The Giants are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Eagles and have shown a propensity for infuriating inconsistency. I don't think their corners will be able to contain the Saints offense, and the Saints defense, far from world beaters, should be good enough to stop a Giants offense that's in a semi-funk. You never know, though, with the Giants, so I'll take them to cover, in case they decide to be competitive.
Pick: Saints win, cover


Season: 106-57 Overall, 82-77-4 ATS (counting Thanksgiving games)

Week 11 NFL Picks: Up or Down From Here?

The only highlight for the Bills last week. Literally. Yet, they're still in the playoff hunt.

It's weird to think that we're getting very close to the end of this NFL season. Huh? I've watched 9 weeks of Bills football? That's three months! It's now the crux of the season; teams can either fade away, as the Bills seemingly are right now, or they can fight through November, rising as the season enters its' last quarter. As I said before, the Bills have faded since their hot start;  they started 3-0 and, since then, have gone 2-4. But they remain alive in the playoff race, because the AFC is seriously muddled right now. There isn't one dominating team in the AFC so far, every team has a fatal flaw, and everyone is basically sitting in a muddle between 7 and 5 wins.

The Texans, at the top of the conference, just lost starter Matt Schaub for the rest of the season, putting revered partier, not so revered football player Matt Leinart at the helm. The Ravens are blisteringly inconsistent. The Steelers, for all their improvement, can't beat the Ravens. The Patriots have an atrocious defense and Tom Brady has looked decidedly mortal. The Bengals and Jets don't have good offenses (with the Jets being appreciably worse than the Bengals.) The West is a logjam of mediocre teams. The Titans are struggling on offense and defense, but have managed to stick around. And, of course, The Bills.

The Bills have a bad, bad defense that can't generate pressure. When they don't force turnovers, they're dead. The offense has become stagnant, and teams have figured out how to beat the spread. Basically, their flaws have been badly exposed. But due to the uncertainty in the AFC, they still have a shot at turning it around and making a playoff run. It has to start this week, or the beginning of the season was just a flash in the pan, a brief vision of what a competitive team in Buffalo could look like.

Anyway, onto the picks. My Thursday Night pick was once again wrong. The short weeks are definitely helping the underdogs so far. Also, Tebow. More than enough has been said about him. It's bizarre to watch him, because he looked horrendous through all four quarters; then led an amazing 95 yard game winning touchdown drive. I've never seen anything like it; a complete and utter transformation. The defense kept him in the game, and then he delivered. If he can ever put it together for more than just the end of a game, then there's a world of potential for him, even if he defies almost every convention of NFL quarterbacking. So, yes, 0-1 this week, but I'm happy about it, because the Jets lost. And that can never be a bad thing.

Last week, I went 10-6 Overall and 9-7 ATS. Can't complain.

Tennessee at Atlanta (-6)


The Titans are now back to being AFC South contenders, without even trying. Now that Matt Schaub is down for the Texans, it looks as if the Titans can contend for the AFC South (unless Matt Leinart keeps the ship from sinking). Still, they haven't been very good all season; last week, they beat up on an overrated (yes, a two win team can be overrated) Panthers team. The Falcons, on the other hand, have shown a propensity to lose close games this season, but also have a stouter defense than the Panthers, which should stop the Titans somewhat anemic offense. The Falcons offense is still the plodding, methodical unit of last year, and, while not always pretty (Julio Jones has brought some excitement to it, though), they can usually put up enough points to win. The Titans are going to be playing harder, because they have a new hope for the division title, but the Falcons, at home, should be able to get it done- they are playing for their playoff lives, too- they either need to catch the Saints in the division or win a wild card spot in a crowded NFC race.
Pick: Falcons win, Titans cover


Buffalo at Miami (-2)


Well, who woulda thought that Miami would be a home favorite in this game even two weeks ago? The Dolphins have ripped off a two game winning streak, and the Bills have faltered badly in two straight, setting up this line, where a 2-7 team is favored over the 5-4 one. As I said before, the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and REALLY need this one; they've been embarrassed the last two weeks, and they are (hopefully) looking to get back on track. Also, them being underdogs to a 2-7 team should light a fire under them. If they lose this one, it's done. If they win this one, and the Jets game next week, they would have sufficient momentum to get a Wild Card or even challenge the Patriots for the division. They were handed a gift when the Jets lost on Thursday; now they need to respond and try and make a playoff run out of it. I know the Dolphins have been playing well for the past five weeks or so, but they've only beaten the Chiefs and Redskins, two sub-par teams. Blinded by homerism, I will once again go with the Bills. They need it. I need it. Let's hope this is the start of an upward trend, a rising from the trench they've dug for themselves the past two weeks. Squish the Fish!
Pick: Bills win, cover


Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)


The Bengals are without AJ Green and Leon Hall for this game, which should make this a comfortable Ravens win. Unfortunately, the Ravens play to the level of their opponent, beating very good teams and falling to the bottom feeders. The defense is still top class; it's the offense, stuck with an identity crisis, bringing the team down. Specifically, the Ravens have an elite running back in Ray Rice, and they barely use him, instead depending on the inconsistent Joe Flacco. It's not pretty. This game has playoff implications, though, and I think Baltimore will be up for the game. The Bengals, despite their injuries, should keep it close, but I see Baltimore taking it- as long as they care about this game.
Pick: Ravens win, Bengals cover


Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)


Guhhhhhhh. Every game that Jacksonville is involved with turns out to be terribly boring. This one might set new records, replacing "Watching Paint Dry" as the go to descriptor of a boring activity. The Jaguars have a great defense and Maurice Jones Drew on offense. That's it. The Browns? Nothing of note.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover


Oakland at Minnesota (-1)


Tough to figure this one. Oakland is leading the AFC West, currently, while the Vikings sit at 2-7. Yet, the Vikings are the (slim) favorites. I'm having trouble picking either way, so I'm going with what I saw last week- the Raiders were impressive last Thursday in beating the Chargers (and get the long week to rest after that), while the Vikings just got blown out (admittedly, it was against the Packers). Adrian Peterson could take over this game and win it for the Vikings, but, barring that, I like the Raiders. Carson Palmer actually looks to be growing into the QB role for the Raiders, and just in time for a divisional race. Should be enough motivation to beat an underrated Vikings team.
Pick: Raiders win, cover


Carolina at Detroit (-7)


The Lions, like the Bills, have fallen off the face of the planet after a hot start to the season. The Panthers started the season as possible spoiler team- they always managed to keep it close, even against far superior opponents. Both teams have basically been figured out. The Lions still have no running game, and the defensive front can't mask their bad secondary. The Panthers have a horrible defense, and the Cam Newton show on offense isn't as productive as it was to start the season. Detroit's at home, needs to stay in the wild card race, and has more quality on both sides of the ball. I'll take them to win, but the Panthers should be able to stay within a touchdown because Matthew Stafford has lost his accuracy, and the Lions offense is hampered.
Pick: Lions win, Panthers cover


Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14)


Have you watched a Packers game recently? Yeah, they're pretty good, in case you haven't noticed. Have you watched a Buccaneers game lately? Well, they have a stagnant offense and a horrid run defense to go with a decent pass defense. Easy pickings for Aaron Rodgers and co.
Pick: Packers win, cover


Dallas (-7) at Washington


As I saw last week, when Dallas has all its cylinders firing, they are scary good. DeMarco Murray is a talented back, and Tony Romo, when on his game, is among the top ten quarterbacks in the league. The defense can create pressure consistently. (All Cowboys praise comes through gritted teeth.) The Redskins are just bad. Very bad. When John Beck and Rex Grossman are fighting for the quarterback job game to game, well, it's not going well. The offense has no appreciable weapons without Santana Moss, and the defense isn't good enough to bail out the offense. This is one rivalry game that shouldn't be close.
Pick: Cowboys win, cover


Arizona at San Francisco (-10)


Yep, the 49ers are for real. Stout defense, mistake free offense. The Cardinals have won two straight, somehow, behind the quarterbacking of John Skelton. I don't his success continuing against the 49ers, especially on the road. The 49ers should be able to take this one easily and get one step closer to locking up this division.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Seattle at St. Louis (-3)


Can't find a compelling reason why I'm picking the Seahawks here besides the fact that they've looked better than decent the past two weeks (giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch a lot more), while the Rams win over the Saints, their only quality game this year, was an aberration from the norm (see: last week's win against Cleveland which came thanks to a missed field goal.)
Pick: Seahawks win, cover


San Diego at Chicago (-3.5)


The Chargers are infuriating; they have a wealth of talent, but squander it away in every loss. They haven't played an impressive game all season. The Bears, as much as I hate to say it, have hit a stride on both sides of the ball. Jay Cutler has learned to succeed behind a bad offensive line, and Matt Forte has shown the form of his rookie season. Now let the Bears fans Super Bowl proclamations proceed- it's never too early for them. Consistency wins over the potential that the Chargers show but never go through with.
Pick: Bears win, cover


Philadelphia at NY Giants (-5)


No Mike Vick for the Eagles? Vince Young starting in his place? The Giants, at home, coming off a tough loss and looking to take the reins of this division? Check, check, and check. The Eagles are the NFC version of the Chargers, yet somehow worse. The Giants have the defense to neutralize Vince Young and an offense that can exploit the Eagles sub par defense. This is another NFC East rivalry game that shouldn't be close.
Pick: Giants win, cover


Kansas City at New England (-15)


New England silenced the doubters with a huge win over the Jets last week. Now they can take further control of the division with another win, and, lucky for them, they get the Chiefs. The Chiefs have reverted back to their early season form- bad- and are going into this game with Tyler Palko at quarterback. Who? Exactly. New England's defense won't be tested in this game, and the Chiefs offense doesn't have the personnel to slow down Brady and the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


Season: 94-52 Overall, 75-69-2 ATS

Thursday Night NFL Pick

Jets (-6) at Denver


Even looking at this game before the season (without any of the hindsight we have now), I'm not sure why the NFL Network thought this game was the best fit for this week's Thursday Night game. The Broncos weren't supposed to be good at the start of the season; and so far, they're holding up their end of the bargain. The Jets were considered to be good before the season and, lo and behold, they are a quality team. So this has been a mismatch from the start. Still, in this wacky, Tebow-filled world, the Broncos have managed to get to 4-5. They even beat the Chiefs last week with an old school, run heavy "T-Bone" offense, with Tim  Tebow completing two passes...for the whole game. It may have worked last week, but I don't see it working against a very angry Jets team, sore after losing to the Patriots. The Jets will be able to stuff the box, denying the run, and have the ability in the defensive backfield to leave their corners in man-to-man situations. Basically, the Jets can put about eight or even nine people in the box, lock Darrell Revis on Eric Decker (or whoever the #1 receiver is on the Broncos in the post- Brandon Lloyd era), and capably cover the other receivers. Tebow will be forced to throw, and that's usually not pretty. On the other side of the ball, the Jets aren't amazing on offense- see: last week, when they got effectively shut down by the Patriots defense- but they should be able to put up enough points against an improving, but not great, Broncos defense. It won't be a pretty game, or high scoring, but the Jets should take it.
Pick: Jets win, cover

The Rest of My Week 10 NFL Picks

Marcell Dareus, head of the Bills defense now that Kyle Williams is out

Well, my picks started off rough after the Chargers crapped the bed Thursday Night, giving Carson Palmer a career renaissance en route to a seven point Raiders win. So I started 0-1 this week. Also: the AFC West is insane and whoever comes out of this cluster**** cannot be foreseen at this point. Last week, for all my picks, I went 7-7 overall and 8-6 ATS. Nothing special. Some big whiffs, but some big hits, I guess.

What of this week? Well, there are no bye weeks, probably because of some weird lockout scheduling. It's also extremely difficult to pick; there are only two lines above seven points, with the rest ranging from "PK" to 6.5. There are some games easy to pick overall, on just winners, but picking these spreads is tricky. If I had real money to bet, I'd be saving it this week.

Pittsburgh (-4) at Cincinnati


The Bengals have been the shock of this season; behind rookies Andy Dalton and AJ Green, along with a stifling defense and a mistake free offense, they've climbed to the top of the AFC standings. Dirty little secret time, though: they haven't beaten a good team besides the Bills, and even that was a 23-20 victory. The rest of their games have been close wins over bad teams. Now they're running into the tough part of the schedule: two games against the Steelers, two against the Ravens, and the Houston game (along with a couple of creampuffs). The Bengals are in a good spot now, but look to be headed for a little bit of a fall. The Steelers have been really good lately, notwithstanding a last second loss to the Ravens last week. Their defense is alive and kicking (after they were presumed dead) and the offense has become a passing juggernaut. The Bengals are facing their first real test, and I don't see them passing this one: the Steelers are too good right now, and the Bengals have been lucky so far.
Pick: Steelers win, cover


Denver at Kansas City (-3)


Honestly? I have no idea about this game. The Chiefs got absolutely destroyed last week by THE DOLPHINS. The Broncos blew out the Raiders last week because they instituted the option. This is some bizarro universe I can't even come close to understanding. The Chiefs should have a week to prepare for the option attack (which somehow the Raiders couldn't react to), but they also just got BLOWN OUT BY THE DOLPHINS. Fine. I'll go with the Broncos. No idea why. The option works again? If it makes no sense, it makes sense in the AFC West.
Pick: Broncos win, Chiefs cover

Jacksonville (-3) at Indianapolis 


If you want to cry tears of boredom, watch this game. Jacksonville has a terrible offense- rookie Blaine Gabbert is struggling more as the season moves on and his receiving core is comprised of cardboard cut outs of real NFL wide receivers. They have a great running back, though, and a really good defense. The Colts are just bad on both sides of the ball- a solid fantasy play is just to play whatever defense goes against the Colts. Seriously, the Colts have nothing going for them. The Jaguars should manage to win this one, and it certainly won't be pretty.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover


Buffalo at Dallas (-5.5)


Last week the Bills got flat out beat down by the Jets on both sides of the ball. The Bills looked flat and never were in the game, even when it was 3-0. Flat out, they laid an egg in one of the key games of the season. Once again, the Bills need a win here to stay in the playoff race and prove their legitimacy as a playoff contender. They haven't won against a good team on the road yet, and they're facing a stretch of tough road games. A loss here puts them in precarious position for the rest of the year, and squanders their fast start. The Cowboys are similarly in need of a win. At 4-4, they're in the middle of their division and losing ground to the Giants, and the NFC South and North look to have strong contenders in the wild card race. My homer side is picking the Bills here; the Cowboys don't have the same personnel as the Jets to shut down the Bills passing offense, and the run defense should be able to be exploited by Fred Jackson. My logical side is saying that the the Cowboys are at home, and even though they're missing Miles Austin, they have an explosive offense and plenty of talent on defense. The deciding factor for me, in the end, is that Dallas hasn't looked impressive against any good teams yet (besides one game against the Patriots which they managed to fumble away in typical Cowboys fashion.) I'm just not impressed, ever, by the Cowboys. So, without much logic behind it, I'm going with Bills. Let's hope my homerism is not once again misplaced, and the Bills actually come out to play- because a loss here would be damning for this season. Also, screw the Cowboys, their fans, their owner, and whoever called them "America's Team."
Pick: Bills win, cover


Houston (-3) at Buccaneers


Houston is rolling through the AFC South, and, with the Titans fall from contention, look to be a lock for the division. The Buccaneers seem allergic to scoring points and have no run defense. That's perfect for the Texans, who have Arian Foster leading the way on the ground and a decent passing offense without Andre Johnson. The Texans have a much better defense than last year, and the Buccaneers have none of the offensive explosiveness they seemed to show last year. It looks to be an easy game for the Texans.
Pick: Texans win, cover


Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5)


The Titans had a strong start to the season behind Matt Hasselbeck's unexpected career resurrection, but have fallen off their pace after the injury to Kenny Britt. The offense has nothing (hey, Chris Johnson, where are you?) and there's nothing special about the defense. Carolina is rested, coming off a bye, and they have Cam Newton (have you heard of him?). The Panthers have an awful defense, but against the Titans, it should be OK; and Cam Newton should keep doing Cam Newton things and win this game.
Pick: Panthers win, cover

Washington at Miami (-4)

I think it says a lot about John Beck that the Redskins can go into Miami, a 1-7 team who are 2-12 in their last 14 home games, and still be four point underdogs. The Redskins have just died after a 3-0 start. The Dolphins have been playing well enough to stay in games for a while, and finally pulled out a win last week in shellacking the Chiefs. I'll take the team that's made an effort versus the team that's dead in the water. Although I do think the Dolphins are crappy enough to let the Redskins hang around.
Pick: Dolphins win, Redskins cover


New Orleans at Atlanta (PK)


The Saints have an extremely efficient offense and a pretty bad defense; and they're prone to dropping games they should win. Atlanta has been inconsistent all year, but has managed to win three games in a row against opponents of varying quality. So far, I just know that Atlanta is no longer as dominant as they once were at home, and the Saints just look like a better team: more explosive on offense, better quarterback, and the defenses are just a draw. In the end, I'll take the Saints, even though they could easily drop this game.
Pick: Saints win/cover


Detroit at Chicago (-2.5)


The Bears have managed to figure out how to use Matt Forte, their defense is still making plays, and Jay Cutler has managed to survive and thrive despite his offensive line trying to kill him. The Lions shot out at the beginning of the season but have slowed down due to injuries; Jahvid Best is still not playing, and the offense has become somehow less than one dimensional (they just throw it to Calvin Johnson.) The Bears have seemed to figure it out, they're at home, and I see them taking this game.
Pick: Bears win, cover


St. Louis at Cleveland (-2.5)


If you hate yourself, you'll switch between this game and the Jags-Colts game during the 1 PM games. I can't say anything of note for these teams: both quarterbacks are kind of awful, both teams don't have any receivers of note (although Brandon Lloyd is trying to make a difference in St. Louis), and the defenses, well, they're both not very good. I guess I'll take the Rams in this one, if only because the Browns have too good of a record already at 3-5.
Pick: Rams win, cover


Arizona at Philadelphia (-14)


Despite the Eagles loss to the Bears last week, they still have incredible talent and have been playing much better since their horrid start. The Cardinals can only beat bad teams, and have John Skelton at QB, who managed a win last week only because of Patrick Peterson's heroics. I can't see John Skelton and the Cardinals horrible defense sticking around with the Eagles and their wealth of talent.
Pick: Eagles win, cover


Baltimore (-6.5) at Seattle


The line for this game is only so low because Seattle's at home and the Ravens have a terrible habit of dropping games against bad teams. The Ravens are clearly a better team than the Seahawks, and I feel like their big win over the Steelers last week should propel them through this game, even if they let Seattle hang around a little too long. Baltimore should pull away in the end. Seattle is just bereft of talent.
Pick: Ravens win, cover


NY Giants at San Francisco (-3.5)


The Giants were impressive last week in limiting the Patriots offense and engineering a last second drive to beat them. The 49ers have been impressive all year, with a stifling defense and a mistake free offense. When I look at this game, I think that the 49ers defense will be able to limit the Giants passing attack, but won't be able to stem it completely. The Giants defense, on the other hand, should be able to stop the 49ers offense, and that's why I like the Giants on the road. The 49ers are due for a let down, anyway.
Pick: Giants win, cover


New England at NY Jets (-2)


This one is huge for the AFC East. The Patriots are coming off two straight losses, something they seemingly never do. The Jets are riding high on a four game winning streak which has put them back at the top of the division (albeit in a three way tie). I'm taking the Patriots in this one, because I think their offense should be better than the Bills was last week and able to move the ball against the Jets. The Jets offense still didn't impress me last week; and while the Patriots defense is horrible, they can limit the Jets. I still see this as the Patriots division (although if the Bills can beat the Jets, they'll have something to say about that), and I find the Patriots suited to win this game. Plus, the Patriots NEVER lose three in a row. They won't let it happen, especially against these Jets.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


Minnesota at Green Bay (-13)


Minnesota was able to keep things close the last time these two played, but with more tape on Vikings QB Christian Ponder, that doesn't look likely to happen. The Packers are, offensively, unstoppable right now. There was a moment in last week's Packers game, where Aaron Rodgers was chased out of the pocket and rolled right. On the run, he whipped a forty yard pass to Jordy Nelson. It was unreal. No one can touch Rodgers right now, and as long as he's behind center, the Packers have a chance in every game. The Vikings aren't anywhere near elite, and they'll get blown out by this Packers juggernaut.
Pick: Packers win, cover


Season: 84-46 Overall, 66-62-2 ATS