Super Bowl Super Pick

Giants "at" Patriots (-3)

The Giants are going to win the Super Bowl.

Oh, you wanted more analysis? Really? During the last two weeks, even as the NFL tried to distract us with the Pro Bowl, there's been the Super Bowl news cycle. One person finds a new story or angle, the rest of the media descends like pirañas and desiccate the corpse, reporting again and again on the same thing. There finally reaches a point of oversaturation, and then begin the jokes about how much we've focused on that one story and reports about the over-reporting, and then it fades away until a couple days later, someone asks, why have we stopped talking about this? And on and on and on it goes until you know way too much about Rob Gronkowski's ankle, even more than his own mother, and Tiquan Underwood goes through his own fifteen minutes of fame right in front of your eyes.

It's exhausting. There is no interesting or novel way to look at this Super Bowl. Every point of analysis has been made twice over, incessantly, debated and refuted. We've reached a negative point, a battle of attrition- there is nothing more to say, both teams have their pros and cons, and can be argued incessantly.

Here's how I see it, and I doubt I'm the only one to have said this. The Giants defense is not miles better than the Patriots defense, but they still have a vastly better, game changing pass rush. The offenses in this case are about equal, especially with Rob Gronkowski being at less than 100% for the Patriots. Both teams will be able to move the ball and score, but when it comes down to it, whose defense are you going to trust more to make the one stop needed to win the game? They're not an elite unit, not even close, but the Giants just have a better personnel group, a better pass rush (which can rattle Brady), and aren't starting Julian Edelman as their third cornerback. The Giants win by more than a field goal, something like 30-24.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Last week: 1-1 Overall, 1-1 ATS
Playoffs: 6-4 Overall, 5-5 ATS