Week 6 NFL Picks: The Worst Slate of Games Yet?

Pretty much sums up the Bills win last Sunday. Fast Freddy Breaking Tackles

Week 6 this year is pretty bland. Looking at the schedule, there's only one game that jumps out- Dallas at New England- and even that is inflated because of the media's unabashed slobbering over either team. New England is the team that does it the "right way" while Dallas is "America's Team" filled with big name players who create media circuses with every interview. As per usual, I'll be sticking to the Bills game.

Last week I went 9-4 overall and 7-6 ATS. I completely whiffed on the Bucs, the Giants and the Titans. A little too heavy on the underdogs, but still, I was able to do pretty well.

St. Louis at Green Bay (-14)


The Rams could get as much time as they want before this game to prepare (beyond the bye week they just had) and I still wouldn't take them to even cover this game. They've put seven (!) cornerbacks on IR this year, which is roughly the amount of cornerbacks you need to guard all the receivers Aaron Rodgers throws to (12 different players caught a Rodgers pass last week). In addition, the Rams have been gouged by the run this year, and while the Packers aren't world-beaters on the run, James Starks and Ryan Grant should easily be able to open up holes in the defense. Aaron Rodgers can then rip his way through the tattered remains of the Rams secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Rams have no receivers to help Sam Bradford, and the running game is not too worrisome. If Green Bay can beat the Broncos by 29, its not hard to see them beating the Rams by 14+.
Pick: Packers win, cover

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-12)

Well, I certainly underestimated the Steelers last week. Even on an injured foot, Ben Roethlisberger was able to throw 5 TDs against what was considered to be a good Titans pass defense. Now they go up against the Jaguars, who are a worse version of the Titans, to be honest. A good running back (Chris Johnson for the Titans, Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars) a QB who you can't completely trust to win the game (Matt Hasslebeck, Blaine Gabbert), no receivers of note, and a decent defense. The Steelers ran roughshod over the Titans last week- and this week against the inferior Jags, it shouldn't be much different.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington

This game is brutally hard to pick. I watched the Eagles last week, and even for all the times they shot themselves in the foot, they had chances to win or tie that game- but of course their own mistakes got in the way. The offense is explosive- they have three good receivers and LeSean McCoy is a beast at running back. The offensive line, though, stinks. The Bills anemic pass rush looked halfway decent against them. The defense on the Eagles is especially susceptible to runs up the middle, and the corners, while talented, are stuck in a zone coverage system that hampers them. Also, they can't tackle well. As for the Redskins, they lost in a snooze fest to the Cowboys and had trouble beating the Cardinals and Rams. The Eagles have to put it together sometime, right? There has to be a game where they win in spite of their mistakes, or don't make as many, and their talent wins out. The Redskins don't have quite an explosive enough offense (Rex Grossman at QB is a worry, and the backs are a mishmash of spare parts, able to excel in Mike Shanahan's system). I could see Philadelphia screwing themselves out of it, but I guess I'm going with the Eagles to finally pull it together.
Pick: Eagles win, cover


San Francisco at Detroit (-4)


San Francisco blew out Tampa Bay last weekend, completely surprising me in the process. The team is far and away the best in the NFC West (which isn't much, but still). The team has a great defense and runs the ball well on offense. Somehow, Alex Smith hasn't imploded at QB yet. The Lions, meanwhile, have a scary front seven and a dangerous offense- Matthew Stafford merely has to chuck it up, and Calvin Johnson usually comes down with it. Jahvid Best showed improvement last week at running back. As much as I like the 49ers to win their division, I can't see them winning on the road against a quality Lions team. Not with Alex Smith at QB...I still can't trust him, not yet.
Pick: Lions win, cover


Carolina at Atlanta (-4)


Atlanta hasn't impressed anyone this season- after a strong start to their last game, going up 14-3, the Falcons completely folded. They bet the farm on this season, trading away a future first rounder for Julio Jones, but the offense hasn't been good even with Jones and the defense is eminently beatable. They've taken a step back since last year. The Panthers are the best 1-4 team in the NFL, staying close in every game against some quality opponents. This week, I see the Panthers pulling out another win- Cam Newton has been outrageously good, and should be able to make up for their weak defense.
Pick: Panthers win, cover


Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7)


The Bengals have a great defense and Andy Dalton is good enough to win games in the clutch with the help of stud receiver AJ Green. The Colts, even with the improvement of Curtis Painter at QB, have found ways to consistently lose games- the defense just isn't good enough. The Bengals should be able to pull this one out pretty easily, because they've shown the ability to shut down better quarterbacks than Curtis Painter and have the offense to beat the weak Indy defense.
Pick: Bengals win, cover


Buffalo at NY Giants (-3)


The Bills showed last week the ability to run the football and score points. The main problem they face is the passing game- they're now suddenly thin at receiver and weren't trying any deep shots, which allowed the Eagles to press their coverage, which choked the passing game. The Bills need to go deep occasionally to keep defenses honest and open up holes for short throws and Fred Jackson to run. The defense has shown the ability to create turnovers, but I'm not sure they'll be able to do that every game, so they need to find a way to shut down opposing offenses and rush the passer more consistently. Luckily, the Giants D looks susceptible to the passing game (even against the Seahawks) and is missing some key players on the defensive line. The Giants offense can't run the ball but has a dangerous passing game. Eli Manning, though, is susceptible to mistakes. Overall, I think it's a favorable matchup for the Bills, and I see them taking this one on the road. Yep. Still irrationally confident.
Pick: Bills win, cover


Houston at Baltimore (-8)


Houston's lost Andre Johnson for the next couple of weeks and Mario Williams for the rest of the season, limiting their offense and their seemingly improved defense. The Ravens are coming off a bye week, are playing at home, and have a more potent defense. The offense, if Joe Flacco is on his game, is highly efficient, especially with Ray Rice at running back. The Ravens look like a team on the rise with smooth waters ahead; the Texans look to have choppy waters ahead, even if the AFC South has never been easier to win.
Pick: Ravens win, cover


Cleveland at Oakland (-6.5)


The Raiders are playing tough, "classic Al Davis football" (writers are stretching for that point now)- run the ball, play tough defense, and capitalize on big downfield throws. The Browns, even off a bye week, have a weak offense- if Peyton Hillis is shut down on the ground (which the Raiders can do), Colt McCoy has no weapons at receiver. The defense is nothing special. All this leads to another Raiders win.
Pick: Raiders win, cover


Dallas at New England(-6.5)


The Cowboys have talented players on both sides of the ball, to be sure- Miles Austin and Dez Bryant make up one of the best receiving cores in the NFL, and DeMarcus Ware is a premier pass rusher. Unfortunately, they have a weak running game and a weak secondary, and Tony Romo is always good to fail in the clutch with a back breaking interception. The Patriots have a horrible defense, to be sure- susceptible to the pass and run- but their extremely effective offense has been able to make up for it. The Cowboys should be able to keep this one close with their passing attack, but in a close game, can you put any faith in Tony Romo?
Pick: Patriots win, Cowboys cover


New Orleans (-5) at Tampa Bay


The Saints can score at will behind Drew Brees and their multifaceted offense, scoring above 22 points in every game so far. The Buccaneers offense has stalled, never putting up more than 24 points in any game. I don't see the Buccaneers defense being good enough to stop the Saints, and the Bucs just can't score enough. It's that simple.
Pick: Saints win, cover


Minnesota at Chicago (-2.5)


When I look at this game, all I can think of is the image of Jay Cutler sulking after being sacked yet again by Jared Allen and the Vikings pass rush, while the Bears defense gets gashed by Adrain Peterson (last week, Jahvid Best was able to rip to shreds the Bears D). Even if Donovan McNabb is playing like he's been possessed by some terrible-QB-spirit, the Bears lack of an offensive line and the Vikings ability to stop the run (Matt Forte is the only weapon the Bears have) should be enough for the Vikings to take this one.
Pick: Vikings win, cover


Miami at NY Jets (-7)


It is so tempting to take the Dolphins in this game- the Jets are imploding under their own hype and beginning to fight amongst themselves, and the play of Mark Sanchez has never been so deliciously poor. A loss to the Dolphins would put the Jets in a beautiful tailspin. The Dolphins, though, are starting Matt Moore in this game. And they're on the road. So while I'm hopeful the Dolphins pull it off, it's hard to see my fantasy coming true. They can't stop anyone and the offense should be somehow worse with Moore at the helm. And, wow, another awful Sunday/Monday Night combo. Yeesh.
Pick: Jets win, cover




Season: 52-25 Overall, 37-38-2 ATS