Before I start this hybrid of Week One Picks and a little bit about each team's prospects this season, I just want you to do one thing. Stop. Imagine for a second that the NFL lockout was never solved, that right now we'd be entering fall without NFL football, without the bright horizon of a new season, the endless possibilities that are inherent in each one.
OK. You can stop weeping now. There it is, right in front of us, another start to the best season in all of pro sports. And after hearing for months about the lockout and the CBA, the truncated offseason was a blast of fresh air in the summer heat, a hyper speed version of the NFL offseason we are used to. And it was glorious. The issue that came with less time, though, was less preparation, and now we enter an NFL season where teams with 'continuity' from last season are presumed to have the edge. The quality of play itself could get appreciably sloppier as well, in addition to affecting rookies entering the league. But enough of that pessimism. It's the NFL. It will be awesome.
So, here are my picks for the first week, which is the hardest week to prognosticate because of the lack of data; we haven't seen these teams in action since at least February (don't even try to tell me that pre-season counts for anything but final roster cuts) and have no idea how exactly the teams will mesh together, how the new additions will play, how the new coaching will affect these teams. It's a guessing game. Along with each pick will be some thoughts on how each team looks heading into the season and my prediction for how they'll fare.
There is one thing I've noticed, though, about pre-season predictions. You can frame any team you choose positively or negatively- there is hope for each team, along with a reason to worry about each team. It depends on how you want to look at it, or which side you think is more realistic. That's why I'm having so much trouble with some sets of predictions, most notably Bill Barnwell's preview over at Grantland. He has 4 sections- pretenders, teams that will decline, teams that will improve, and title contenders. While a lot of it is smart, statistical analysis- Pythagorean Win Totals, turnover ratios, etc.- there is a lot of it that is pure speculation and assumptions. For instance, the Bills are listed as a "pretender", while the Panthers are listed as a team that should "improve"(of course, the improvement is relative for the Panthers). The way these arguments are constructed is such-
The Bills: Man, this team is awful and will continue to be awful. They have a terrible organization, coaching staff, and set of players. Buffalo's an awful place to live.
The Panthers: Man, this team was awful, but here's a bunch of reasons why they could be plenty better!
The problem is, there's no mention, really of the flipside for either team- and I could give plenty of reasons why the Bills could be a lot better this season or why the Panthers will still be awful. Barnwell doesn't want to acknowledge these sides, though; he makes his projection and only gives that side besides the "Best Case- Worst Case" section, which gives the Bills a chance at- oh boy!- 9-7! I get it, this is supposed to be a strong argument on behalf or against each team, but an antithesis is a part of any good argument- you can even try and argue against the antithesis within the piece. As I said, each projection is all about framing, how you want to see it. Still, what's outside the frame shouldn't be completely thrown out.
So, with that in mind, here I go. I'll try and give some reasons for optimism for each team (if I, personally, think they'll be terrible) and some warnings for teams that I expect to do very well. In the interest of eliminating redundancy, health is a key issue for each team, and I'll only mention it if it is a special case.
New Orleans at Green Bay (-4)
The season opener pits the last two Super Bowl Champions against one another, and both teams have a strong outlook for the season. The Packers won the Super Bowl last year without some key players: RB Ryan Grant, TE Jermichael Finley, DE Justin Harrell, OL Mark Tauscher, and they lost CB Charles Woodson in the Super Bowl itself. Now the Packers get all of that back and look to build on last season's run. QB Aaron Rodgers is probably the frontrunner for NFL MVP at this point, and LB Clay Matthews and Woodson lead a strong, opportunistic defense. Seriously, this organization has built a team that should contend for years. As a Packers friend of mine said, the team shunned huge signings (or, couldn't get them because of the small market) and big trades (as opposed to the Bears, Vikings, Redskins, and perhaps the Eagles this year...) and chose to smartly draft and homegrow talent into the contender it is now. Honestly, the only thing I could see derailing this team is an injury to Aaron Rodgers (the team could survive anyone else) or a massive mental lapse, i.e. 'The Super Bowl Hangover." Something tells me, though, that this team is hungry to keep contending.
Their opponent in this game are the Saints, who were good enough last year to overcome any 'Hangover' and at least make the playoffs, where they were upset by the Seahawks, probably the worst team to make the playoffs. This offseason, they went out and aggressively drafted RB Mark Ingram and DT Cameron Jordan, signed C Olin Kreutz and DT Shaun Rogers, without losing too much (in fact, losing RB Reggie Bush might be a plus). Obviously, the Saints want to be back in the Super Bowl after a 'down' year. I can see them winning the division and making a deep playoff run- although you have to worry a little bit about the defense, even under Greg Williams' coaching.
This game, then, pits two of the (predicted) top NFC contenders together for the season opener. The Packers will get their rings, and then immediately return to 0-0, with a target squarely on their backs. Both offenses are dangerous, more through the air than on the ground, and I think will effectively cancel each other out. If it comes down to defense, I like the Packers defense a little more- they are a top to bottom better defense. The Saints are susceptible to the pass and not fantastic against the run, and relies too heavily on turnovers, which, against a QB like Aaron Rodgers, are hard to come by. The Packers will take this game in a close one, winning their own coronation ceremony.
Pick: Packers win, Saints cover
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2)
This is the other prominent game of the week (sorry, NY Jets vs. Dallas...I don't care, even if the media tries to shove this down the collective throat of America), a divisional matchup that has gotten downright nasty in the past couple of years. However, for the casual football fan, this one is not much fun to watch- these teams focus on kicking the crap out of one another and getting points comes in somewhere down the line. Anyway, the Steelers and Ravens are both going to be good this year, as has been the case for the past two or three years. The Steelers have a bad habit of doing poorly the year after they make the Super Bowl (whether they win or not), but I can't see them doing that this year. They get a full 16 games out of QB Ben Roethlisberger this year (as opposed to 12 last year), barring injury, and the offense has actually become pretty dynamic with the emergence of RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Mike Wallace to compliment the possession receiver play of WR Hines Ward. The defense is the same old stingy defense, albeit a little bit older. They're nearly immovable on the ground and pretty good against the pass. Of course, there's always LB James Harrison to provide illegal hits on any player who puts their head down, just for good measure. It's not that bold to say it, but I still see this team at the top of the division (despite the Super Bowl curse and their increasing age- two worries), despite all the hype for the Ravens.
The Ravens, too, have a stingy defense, with LB Ray Lewis somehow still out there making plays, DT Haloti Ngata wreaking havoc, and a decent if sometimes burnable stable of corners. Unlike the Steelers, though, I still don't see them having a good offense. RB Ray Rice is a playmaker on the ground, but I'm not sold yet on QB Joe Flacco or his crop of receivers, Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans (who has been decent to awful for the Bills in the past three years). When the game comes down to the wire, do you really want Joe Flacco, the guy who looks like Bert from Seasame Street and doesn't do so well without a big cushy pocket, leading the charge? I don't think so, and that's why I think the Ravens will still be behind the Steelers in this division (while making the playoffs)- they don't have a better Quarterback, they don't have a better offense, and the defenses are fairly equal. If the Ravens have don't get early leads, or fall behind early, they'll have a tough season just getting to the playoffs, unless Flacco takes some major steps.
That just about spells out my pick for this game. It'll be close, but the Steelers have a better ability to score points, and they'll cover and win this game.
Pick: Steelers cover, win
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Last year's surprise team (10 Wins!?)- Tampa Bay- takes on the team many are jumping on to get to the playoffs this year-Detroit. The Buccaneers had a quiet offseason, building through the draft on a young team that has already tasted success. The problem, however, is that the Buccaneers played an amazingly easy schedule last year, and feasted on weak teams (in the aforementioned Bill Barnwell article, he really hammers this point in). Since they finished third in the division, though, behind two other strong teams, they at least get the benefit of playing two games vs. third place teams in other NFC Divisions. They also get to play the AFC South and the NFC North this year, which isn't too bad. This is still a talented team, with plenty of room to grow, but I see a slight recession, to around eight wins- the schedule is a little tougher. Though,if they actually keep getting better than last year, maybe they'll hit ten wins again, but I can't see them in the playoffs without the Saints or Falcons tripping up or the wild card falling into place for them.
Detroit, on the other hand, hasn't gone above six wins ever since they went winless, but they've been steadily improving every season. The offense, if it can stay healthy- and that is a BIG if- could be explosive. QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best and WR Calvin Johnson, all playmakers in their own right, all have injury problems. The defense, however, could be one of the nastiest in the league, with the young defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley anchoring the line. The defensive backs, though, could use some serious work. Last year, this team was a BS ref's call away from seven wins, and if Stafford can stay healthy, it's not hard to see this team getting at least eight wins this year, and at least contending for a playoff spot this year as a wild card. But the bottom could fall out really quickly if they can't stay healthy.
In this opening game, the Lions ARE healthy, so I like them to take this and send a message to the team that they can beat quality opponents. Their defense should be able to pressure the Bucs QB, Josh Freeman, into some mistakes (he had a ridiculously low TD-INT ratio last year), and come away with a win.
Pick: Lions cover, win
Atlanta (-3) at Chicago
Oh, the Bears. This was one of the worst teams I think I've ever seen go to an NFC Championship game. They bumbled through the season against a ridiculously easy schedule and sheer luck (weird bounces, referee's calls, the other team not having their best players). Even when they played a good team, it always seemed as if the other team had an issue that week that made them appreciably worse. Fine, they capitalized on their opportunities. But God, this is not a good team, not a division champion, not even a playoff team. QB Jay Cutler is a far cry from 'elite', RB Matt Forte is a decent back who thinks he is a superstar, and they have no bona fide number one wide receiver (Roy Williams will masquerade in that role this year. Comical.) The defense has a solid pass rush with DE Julius Peppers, but the linebackers aren't getting any younger, and the defensive secondary isn't that impressive. I swear, if this team is still this bad and makes the playoffs again, my head will explode with anger. To return to the playoffs in a non- sheer luck way, they're going to have to take some major steps, like Cutler making better decisions and an offense that can consistently put up points and protect the quarterback. I don't see it, but I'm sure plenty of Bears fans have talked themselves into it.
As for the Falcons, well, they've built a team that should be near the top of the NFC for the next couple of years. Matt Ryan is already a franchise QB, Roddy White is a top WR, and they can pound the ball on the ground. They also gambled and traded some future draft picks to pick up WR Julio Jones to further bolster the passing attack- it's clear they want Matt Ryan to start throwing more. The defense isn't quite up to snuff, but they added DE Ray Edwards to up the pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I do worry about the defensive secondary and linebackers- they play good but not great defense, and against elite offenses, they're going to have some trouble. That's why I see them slightly slipping from last season and getting an NFC Wild Card, losing the division to the Saints. An injury to Matt Ryan (who has stayed exceedingly healthy, it seems), though, would definitely plummet this team out of the playoffs.
Once again, the preview colors the pick. The Bears are shells of NFC contenders, and I don't even see them in the playoffs this year. Atlanta will be near the top of the NFC, and possibly in the Super Bowl. Quality wins out here, and I see the Falcons winning and covering easily. This line is way too low.
Pick: Falcons win, cover
Buffalo at Kansas City (-6)
Hoo boy. My beloved Bills. Before I get into my mini-treatise about the Bills, I'll get into the Chiefs. The Chiefs were another surprise team last year, riding a strong running game and defense to an AFC West title while the Chargers imploded. One factor for their sudden rise was their easy schedule: they got to to play the NFC West and the AFC South, as well as 6 games against the rest of their division which wasn't too hot last year (and they still lost to the Raiders twice and the Broncos once). They also built well through the draft and becoming, basically, the Junior Patriots by taking almost any player they could from the Patriots roster and their roster cuts. RB Jamaal Charles is truly a game breaker on the ground, and should get more carries this year as Thomas Jones starts to age. WR Dwayne Bowe has the ability to take over games. QB Matt Cassel has shown flashes of brilliance, but still isn't much more than a glorified game manager. If the game is on his shoulders (i.e the Chiefs go down early and can't run the ball as much), he hasn't shown the ability to grasp that moment. The defense got even bigger by adding DT Kevin Gregg. The linebackers are pretty good, nothing special, and there's plenty of talent in the defensive secondary. Not sure I can see this team making the playoffs, though, unless Cassel makes a big step forward. For one, the AFC has two divisions with two great teams- the North (Steelers and Ravens) and the East (Patriots and Jets), so the wild card will be tough to get. Secondly, the Chargers should be a lot better than last year (and, statistically, they were very good, but everything somehow went wrong), and the Chiefs don't have enough on offense to match the Chargers. Thirdly, the problem with winning your division is that you play other division winners next year, strengthening the schedule, and they play the NFC North and AFC East this year. It's not going to be as easy, and the Chiefs will struggle. They'll still a good team, but they can't live up to the run they had last year.
This could probably be it's own column in its own right. The Bills outlook for this season is divided into two camps: "This team has been awful since 2005 and there is no hope. Cry, Buffalo, for you have been cast into football hell" (ok, so the last part was only slightly exaggerated), or, the more optimistic view- "This team has been pretty bad since 2005, but they have started to improve the team and have some potential in this year and years upcoming." And you know what? I think these two sides are split among one line- people who actually have watched the Bills games from 2010 fall on the more optimistic side, while those who don't (cough cough most ESPN personalities cough cough) look at last year's record, what we did in free agency, and the overall roster, and say, this team is nothing.
But that's sort of the point (and here comes the optimism). The Bills don't have the resources to compete with other teams financially and lack a big market to draw good players. And instead of just standing pat and taking that fact, they're trying all sorts of ways to build up talent to become a competitive team. The organization has a plan in place to build an unconventional winner- big in the trenches, speed on the outside. Sure, the strategy isn't unconventional itself, it's the implementation. GM Buddy Nix and coach Chan Gailey have basically turned over the whole roster since the Dick Jauron era ended, keeping only the parts they could utilize in their new system. They've drafted for this system, bringing in CJ Spiller (who has the pure ability to be a Jamaal Charles type back) and Stevie Johnson, as well as finding a group of young, talented receivers, and tailoring the pass attack around them, highlighting their strengths. The offense is predicated on the players, not the scheme. The scheme is tailored around the players. When you're dealing with not being able to attract players, this is the way to maximize potential. On defense, the team has completely built up their D-Line, surrounding stud NT Kyle Williams (seriously, he was, by some metrics, the defensive player of the year last year) with new DE/DT Marcell Dareus, who looks scary as a rookie. This pick, along with the signing of Nick Barnett and Kirk Morrison, was a direct response to last year's failings against the run. The team took a chance of claiming LB Shawne Merriman off waivers, and, if he can stay healthy, he looks to be back in his game changing form. The secondary is still a question mark, but the Bills at least tried to address in the draft by grabbing CB Aaron Williams and S Da'Norris Searcy. This roster isn't full of big names or special players. This roster an optimized, bottom of the barrel team. They showed flashes last year- especially in weeks 7-12 last year, where they took the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers to overtime, scored 35 unanswered points against the Bengals, and got their first two wins. The offense, when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is on his game, can be explosive. The defense is hopefully improved from last year's sieve. There is hope. The Bills are not in the pits of NFL Hell. Their roster is a bunch of no-names trying to prove that they are something, that the city is something, that they are not merely cast offs. This team is playing for respect, and athletes who feel slighted are dangerous athletes. I see a 6-9 win season, and, hey, maybe some sneaky playoff contention if they REALLY improve and start knocking off quality teams.
Would I be surprised if the Bills bottomed out and won 2 games this season? Well, that sort of failure has become commonplace for the Bills, and, sure, I could see them imploding behind a weak offensive line and a still developing defense. I would be disheartened, but not surprised. You have to expect the worst watching the Bills. But damn it, there was a flicker last year, a smattering, of hope, of potential. I feel like one of those trick candles sometimes. The Bills keep trying to blow out the belief I have in them, but, annoyingly, I'm still there, burning, dripping wax onto the cake.
Well, finally, onto the pick. Literally, my brain is screaming at me here NOT to take the Bills, while my irrational heart keeps popping in and saying, hey, they could do it! Unfortunately, I'm going to have to see it before I believe it- that the Bills can stop such a strong running team and if their offense can get into the groove they sometimes had last year. Sigh. Chiefs win, Bills cover (remember, these teams went to OT last year).
Pick: Chiefs win, Bills cover
Indianapolis at Houston (-9)
Any talk about Indianapolis at this point revolves solely around QB Peyton Manning and his mysterious neck injury. The Colts and Manning himself are being exceedingly hush hush about the injury, which is never a good sign. The interesting thing that fans get to see here, though, is truly how valuable Manning is to this team. The argument that most MVP debates come down to, at least in my view, is how good would the team be without this player? Here, we have a real life example, no theoretical posturing needed. The last time we saw this was in 2009, when Tom Brady of the Patriots was injured, putting Matt Cassel into the starting role- and the Patriots still won 11 games. The Colts, however, don't seem built as well as the Patriots were. The defense, for one, besides DE Dwight Freeney, has always been an afterthought. The offense has never really developed a solid running game, and the receivers, besides Reggie Wayne, seem to be good because of Peyton Manning, and not because of insane ability. Basically, then, it DOES come down to Peyton. If he misses a couple of weeks, the Colts should be able to right the ship and challenge Houston for a division crown. If he's gone for a majority or...ALL... of the season, Kerry Collins is not going to get them to the playoffs, barring some sort of miraculous reinvention by him or by the whole team.
Houston, on the other hand, looks primed for a playoff run for the first time in franchise history. The offense has weapons aplenty, and QB Matt Schaub can run the offense brilliantly at times. With TE Owen Daniels coming from back from injury, the Texans have even more options. Last year, the defense was the problem, particularly the pass defense, so the Texans brought in CB Jonathan Joseph, a top 10 corner, and jettisoned some of the worst starters they had and ably replaced them. The defense might struggle in their new 3-4, but the team has the ability to outscore almost any team, besides elite defenses. In the suddenly weak AFC South (with the issues the Colts are having), the Texans are primed for a division championship, a home playoff game, what have you. They just can't get tied up in their own hype.
For the pick, I'm not sure why, but I think this spread is still a little too high. It's not like the Colts will become an 0-16 team without Peyton Manning. They're going to win some games and stay at least competitive.
Pick: Texans win, Colts cover
Philadelphia (-5) at St. Louis
If you don't know what the Eagles did this summer by now, you probably just don't like the NFL that much, because it was the story of the offseason. I'm not going to go into it here, but they signed the best player on the market (CB Nnamdi Asomugah), traded for a Pro Bowl CB who will probably play in the NICKEL (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) and basically signed all-pro talent on offense and defense to give depth and a new look to the team. The burden of these expectations now falls on QB Michael Vick's shoulders. His health is especially key, since the team doesn't have as good a back up this year (Vince Young). He also needs to show that he can still play on the elite level that he had last year, and that he can fix some of the issues that plagued him at the end of last year (namely, the inability to pick up blitzes). If Michael Vick plays at his transcendent peak, this team is going to be hard to beat. If he struggles behind the offensive line (the weakest point on this team), the team sputters. I, personally, believe in the Eagles, and I can see them easily winning their division. I know, not hard to say, but remember, Andy Reid and his terrible clock management are still at the helm. That could also torpedo the team.
The Rams were one win away from an 8-8 record and a home playoff game last year, but blew it against the Seahawks last year. Still, there's plenty of optimism for a team that went from the 1st overall pick in the draft to 7-9 the next year. QB Sam Bradford is on his way to being a star, and the team is trying to bring in talent around him-WR Mike Sims Walker and RB Jerious Norwood, to name two. Still, the receiving corps around Bradford look a little thin, and it might not be a great step forward for him, even under new offensive coordiantor Josh McDaniels, who loves to wing it. The defense has a pretty good pass rush and good personnel interspersed throughout, despite losing S OJ Atogwe. There's plenty to be hopeful about, but it also must be remembered that this was still a 7-9 team in the NFC West, a division where pretty much every team was decent to bad. They get the benefit of 6 games against the rest of the division to show that they are actually better than them. Something tells me they'll win this division, mostly because they have the best quarterback in the division (not sold on Kevin Kolb yet) and should be able to get to the playoffs, even as the worst team there.
For this game, I don't think the Eagles are going to be clicking immediately, and I don't think they'll dominate this game. St. Louis has had time to prepare for Vick all offseason, and they have a good pass rush which could harras Vick. Still, talent wins out in this game.
Pick: Eagles win, Rams cover
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-6.5)
The battle for Ohio! Guhhhhhhh. Sorry if my enthusiasm for this epic battle wanes. The Bengals are primed for a pretty awful season. Former QB Carson Palmer told the team he would like to be traded; and if he wasn't he would 'retire', and not play for the team. Instead of smartly trading him for Draft picks or an infusion of talent, the Bengals and owner Mike Brown took a stand and are letting him sit out, severely ruining an already bad team. Now rookie QB Andy Dalton steps in, and, if you've ever seen Andy Dalton play, he is a far cry from even Carson Palmer. Like, seriously overmatched at the NFL level. The team also drafted phenom WR AJ Green, but, of course, he has Andy Dalton as his quarterback. The defense lost CB Jonathan Joseph, a great corner, and added Nate Clements, a terrible, overpaid corner, to replace him. Oh yeah, they also lost WR's Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco,who, though getting old, had some talent. The defense- also not impressive. So it's not hard to see this team close to the number one pick in this year's draft, barring some sort of Andy Dalton miracle, or RB Cedric Benson becoming Barry Sanders. Not seeing it.
Cleveland offers a little more hope, but I'm not as hyped on this team as others are. This is, after all, a team that lost to the Bills last year- I don't think they're quite ready for prime time. QB Colt McCoy steps into the starting role after a solid rookie season, but he has yet to prove he is more than a game manager, and his weak core of receivers won't help him out too much. RB Peyton Hillis was a revelation last season-until about Week 11, when he started a serious decline. Maybe he'll be fresher to start this season, but he's not a safe bet to return to his peak form from last season, something the Browns need to be successful. On defense, the Browns are pretty solid, but not world beaters by any stretch of the imagination. Most of the hype for this team revolves around some big step forward; but I don't see that happening, because Colt McCoy still doesn't have weapons on offense, and the defense is just the same as last year. The Browns will be pesky, sure, and might win 7-9 games- but playoffs, not so fast. Not in their division.
As for this game, though, they should be able to dispose of the hapless Bengals. I can't see the Bengals being anything else until I, you know, see otherwise.
Pick: Browns win, cover
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-2)
Oh wow, this one is another doozy. Tennessee brought in Matt Hasslebeck to play QB, RB Chris Johnson is fresh off a lockout, and WR Kenny Britt is also a little under-trained. Tennessee pinned its future on QB Jake Locker in the draft, and Hasslebeck is the stand in, at this point, and if he struggles, the calls to bring in Locker will start. Still, Hasslebeck's main function should be to turn around and hand the ball off to Johnson, one of the best backs in the league, and watch him do his thing. The defense looks to be nothing special. The team also parted ways with coach Jeff Fisher this offseason, and he usually was good for an extra win or two. This team is going to try and run, run, run all day with Chris Johnson, and that should win some contests, but the rest of the team is pretty unimpressive to me. Chalk me up for five wins unless Matt Hasslebeck transforms this offense into something more multidimensional.
Jacksonville is a mess right now, seeing as they cut their presumed starting QB, David Garrard, at the beginning of the week. But no, it definitely wasn't about the money (8 million dollars saved), it was because they thought they had a better option at QB! Luke McNown! Feel the excitement! If he's not doing too much for you, you're pretty much everyone except Jack Del Rio. The team still has top 10 RB Maurice Jones Drew, but not much else on offense, with a weak core of receivers (Mike Thomas is a #1 receiver...in bizzarro world). The defense has a pretty good line, with DE Aaron Kampman, but the linebackers and secondary leave much to be desired, even though they brought in LB Paul Pozluszny. With Garrard, this team was at best a 8-9 win team in the weak AFC South. Now I think best case is 5-7, unless Luke McNown is the next Tom Brady. I won't be holding my breath.
I wouldn't touch this game with real money, betting wise, and picking it is a pain. I'll take the Titans, because this is one match up where they actually have an advantage at QB.
Pick: Titans cover, win
NY Giants (-3) at Washington
Ah, the Amurrica game- NY at Washington on 9/11. If you want to kill yourself, play a drinking game during this game where every time you see an American Flag or someone mentions 9/11, take a shot. You'll be out by the first quarter. Anyway, the Giants came into the season with plenty of optimism, with a strong offense and what was hoped to be a strong defense. Unfortunately, they've had a horrible string of injuries on defense this pre-season, leaving them thin and with less talent across the board. They still have a pretty good defensive line and secondary, but the linebackers are weak and injury decimated. This offense is talented, though. Ahmad Bradshaw is a quality running back, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are top receivers, and Eli Manning can sling it- when he's not throwing it to the other team. With the injuries on defense, this team is going to be forced into a lot of shootouts, and I don't trust them to compete every week like that in the NFC East, where the Eagles and a possibly revitalized Cowboys team loom. They'll be hovering around .500 most of the year unless (yes, this is becoming an every paragraph feature) the defense steps up in a major way.
The Redskins, perennial offseason champs, come into the season having finished one of the worst quarterback battles since JP Losman and Trent Edwards battled it out for the Bills job a couple years ago. Rex Grossman won out over John Beck to take the reins of this team, but, if he falters, I'm sure there will be a quick hook. The offense has looked good in the preseason, with new RB Tim Hightower skyrocketing up fantasy draft boards, but I'm waiting to see it against regular season defense before anointing them as anything special. The defense is similarly wholly decent. In the NFC East, against quality opponents like the Eagles, Cowboys, and the Giants, even, this team will struggle, and they also have to face the Jets and Patriots this year. I'm seeing this team in the basement of the East once again- mostly because of the quarterback situation. If one comes out with flying colors, or the defense becomes imposing, there's more hope, but both seem unlikely. Have fun at 5-6 wins, Washington!
As for the Amurrican Game of the Week, well, I see the Giants winning this one fairly easily, putting solid pressure on Grossman to mask the defensive deficiencies they will have.
Pick: Giants win, cover
Carolina at Arizona (-7)
This is a battle of two quarterbacks making big debuts for each team- Cam Newton for Carolina, and Kevin Kolb for the Cardinals. First, Carolina. Last year's worst team starts this year that it pretty much can't get any worse. 2-14 is hard to top. The team returns the talented RB tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and the offensive line, highly battered last year, returns from injury as a pretty good unit. The defense, outside of MLB John Beason, is overwhelmingly decent. The team's success is going to come down to the play of Cam Newton, and I'm not sure I've seen a top draft pick who needed more development before starting a season, and Cam didn't get that with a shorter offseason. So yeah, there's reasons why this team will improve off 2-14. But they're not going much further than 5 wins- the division is too strong, and they just don't have the talent besides the running game. Cam Newton will get his baptism by fire.
The Cardinals regressed pretty badly last year, mostly because of their terrible offense- the running game was horrendous, and only that was beat by the carnival of awful quarterbacks they started. This offseason, they aggressively traded for former Eagles back up QB Kevin Kolb, giving him the starting job he so desperately wanted. The team still has RB Beanie Wells, who was pretty bad last year, giving him one last chance to show he's a true NFL running back. I wouldn't trust the running game too much here, but that's kind of the point. The Cardinals love to throw the ball, and I'm sure Kolb is going to have fun throwing to bona fide game changer Larry Fitzgerald, WR. The defense is aging and not altogether amazing (besides rookie CB Patrick Peterson), but this is a team built for winning shootouts. How much do you trust in Kolb, though? I'd compare his arrival to Matt Schaub's in Houston- back up QB gets starting shot with a great receiver on his team- but doesn't make the playoffs the first year he's there. The Cardinals will compete with the Rams for the division crown, but fall short, somewhere close to 7-9 wins, with plenty of hope for the next season. Kolb could be great, but the rest of the team needs to catch up.
In this game, though, I like the Cardinals at home against an overmatched Cam Newton. Panthers should be able to cover, though, behind their strong running game.
Pick: Panthers cover, Cardinals win
Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5)
Oh god, it's the NFC West. The dreck of the league. I don't even want to think about these teams for too long, and I wrote a solid three paragraphs about the Bills, possibly the most depressing team in the league to follow. But anyways.
Seattle, after an absurd run to the playoffs at 7-9, traded incumbent QB Matt Hasslebeck away and picked up a new QB, pinning their hopes on...Tavaris Jackson. Tavaris. Jackson. Tavaris Jackson is like a more raw, less gifted version of Cam Newton- with more NFL experience, somehow. The offensive line is injured and not getting any better, severely limiting an offense already led by Tavaris Jackson. The Seahawks also went and picked up WR Sidney Rice and TE Zach Miller to bring some offensive fire works, but, then again, Tavaris Jackson is the QB. RB Marshawn Lynch, I think, is being pretty underrated- he's always run behind bad offensive lines, and will get plenty of work here, because, well, you guessed it, Tavaris Jackson is playing quarter back. The defense is worthy of a shrug- nothing special. So, as you can see by this preview, unless Tavaris Jackson becomes...well...someone else, this team is stuck somewhere around 4 wins this year, way outside playoff contention.
The 49ers at least have the foundations to contend in the NFC West- RB Frank Gore is great when healthy, and the defense, led by LB Patrick Willis, is nothing to sniff at. The problem is, Alex Smith is still the quarterback, and the top two receivers are Ted Ginn are Braylon Edwards, two guys who are only good at running straight and catching long balls. This team, for me, holds just about a little more promise this year than the Seahawks- like, 5-6 wins this year- because from what I've seen, Alex Smith is not a good NFL quarterback, and the rest of the team can't overcome that. Still, they'll give a little bit of trouble to the Cardinals and Rams.
As for this awful, confined to the ninth circle of hell game, I'll take the Niners to win and cover. I don't want to even think about this game anymore.
Pick: Niners win, cover
Minnesota at San Diego (-8.5)
Minnesota booted coach Brad Childress during last season and finally got rid of Brett Favre, replacing them with Leslie Frazier and QB Donovan McNabb. While I like the Frazier upgrade, McNabb hasn't looked so good since he's left the Eagles system. The Vikings still have RB Adrian Peterson, who can win football games, but the rest of the offense might struggle without a bona fide number one receiver (sorry, Percy Harvin). The defense, though, is good- the line can get plenty of pressure and stop the run, they have good linebackers and secondary. This team should be able to stay in games with that defense, but I can't see them consistently putting up points, which will be their downfall. Mediocrity is one thing you can get when you acquire Donovan McNabb.
The Chargers, meanwhile, must've offended the Gypsy from Drag Me to Hell or something, because they were continually plagued by bad luck last year, particularly in special teams. (As Bill Barnwell pointed out, 4 of 9 blocked punts came against them last year). The Chargers have a high scoring offense led by QB Phillip Rivers, WRs Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, and perhaps RB Ryan Matthews. The defense is fast and aggressive, looking for turnovers. Barring one of their traditional slow starts, this team looks set to win the AFC West and contend for the Super Bowl. There's just too much talent- only another gypsy curse can bring them down, so I hope they gave that button to the Jets or something. (If you haven't seen Drag Me to Hell, you're missing out).
So, obviously, I like the Chargers here, but I can see the Vikings hanging around behind their D and Adrian Peterson.
Pick: Chargers win, Vikings cover
Dallas at NY Jets (-4.5)
Speaking of the Jets... I'll try not to let my distaste for this team show through in this. The Jets have made a rapid ascent to the peak (or near it) of the AFC since hiring Rex Ryan. Problem is, they haven't found a way to win the AFC Championship game yet, and Rex Ryan's Super Bowl predictions are starting to wear thin. QB Mark Sanchez, is, as anyone will tell you, the key to the team's success- can he progress above being a glorified game manager? Till he shows that, this team will continue to rely on a stingy D and a strong running game that opens up the air for WRs Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes a little bit. The team did lose some depth all around, though, which could spell trouble if the team gets any injuries or players underperform. Still, I can't see this team not making the playoffs- the defense is just that good. I would love to see them bottom out, though. (Oops, I couldn't do it).
Ooh, the Cowboys, a team I also hate! Rooting for the meteor in this match up, folks. Anyway, the Cowboys had a disastrous 6-10 season last year behind some bad injuries and a terrible record in close games. Now the team should have a healthy QB Tony Romo for a whole season, with RB Felix Jones taking over the main role, and WRs Miles Austin and Dez Bryant heading up the receiver core. This should be a good offense, and the defense has the ability to be pretty good, with OLB DeMarcus Ware. Unfortunately, the defensive backfield isn't strong, which will be trouble against elite passing teams.
The good news is, the Jets aren't an elite passing team, so the Cowboys should be able to stick around in this game, but I still see the Jets taking this one with a great defensive performance- CB Darrell Revis will be in top form.
Pick: Jets win, Cowboys cover
New England (-7) at Miami
New England has been great for the past decade and don't show any signs of stopping now. As long as Tom Brady is the QB, this team will be in a position to win 10+ games. The offense is still a high powered machine, no matter the other personnel. The defense needed to beef up, so they got Albert Haynesworth, hoping to build him back to his pro bowl form. I don't need to say much- the Patriots are going to be good, they'll win the division, and probably be close to the Super Bowl. Same old, same old.
Miami, on the other hand, has Chad Henne at QB, and that about does it for me. Sure, the defense could be GREAT, but Chad Henne+ one good receiver+ no proven running backs= a disaster. This team is going to hold teams to low scores, but will not be able to match them consistently- there's just not enough talent on the offensive side, and I see Miami battling the Bills for the AFC East cellar. The defense will have to be transcendent for any more to happen.
Yep. I like New England here. Couldn't you tell?
Pick: New England wins, covers.
Oakland at Denver (-3)
The Broncos struggled last year, unable to stop anyone even when they could put up points. The defense this year should be improved by the return of DE Elvis Dumervil and the drafting of DE/OLB Von Miller, giving the Broncos a good pass rush. The linebackers are otherwise nothing special, and, besides CB Champ Bailey, there's not much to say about the secondary. The offense should be more conservative under John Fox, which is good news for RB Knowshon Moreno, and not as good news for QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Lloyd, who won't be so explosive this year. This team should be improved off last year, but they can't compete with the Chiefs or Chargers for the AFC West. 6-7 wins, perhaps?
Oakland is, as usual, a catastrophe. They fired the one coach who actually made them semi-decent and ruined all the momentum they may have built up last year. The lone bright spot may be RB Darren McFadden, the offense's only true weapon. The defense lost their best CB and didn't do a good job replacing him, leaving this defense pretty vulnerable. Look for Oakland to fall back into the depths of the cellar this year. 3-5 wins sounds about right.
As for the pick, well. Denver wins and covers, because, well, they're 3 points better than the Raiders.
Pick: Denver wins, covers
Wow. That was a very long column. Future picks won't be quite so long. Anyway, IT'S FOOTBALL TIME! OH GOD YES! Enjoy, everybody.
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