Thursday, September 1, 2011

College Football didn't get Ballsier, It Just Got Smarter

Tonight, the College Football season began (go Sconnie!), and with it came some buzz for a couple of games between ranked opponents- Boise St- Georgia and Oregon-LSU, to name the biggest. ESPN, of course, has been hyping up these games, and heralding some new era of ballsiness in College Football. Woah, instead of playing a creampuff in their first week, these teams are playing big time games! How risky!

The problem is, it's not. These games have very little risk versus a very high reward- win or lose- that no team should pass up, and it's because of the dirty secret of the BCS- it's better to lose early than lose late, no matter the opponent.

The worst part of College Football, as I've lamented before, is that every program is extremely risk averse. The system itself rewards that. A team that played the hardest schedule in the league (conference schedule+ top 20 ranked non conference opponents) and lost two games would likely be shut out of the BCS bowls; a team that plays a middling schedule, with the standard conference schedule and no or #20-#25 ranked non conference opponents, and went undefeated, would likely be put in one of the major bowls. And yes, some conferences (the SEC and the Big 10 and 12, sort of) have good conference schedules that challenge each team, and they are usually rewarded for surviving that gauntlet- but for the most part, the undefeated team that played the easier schedule has a better shot than the two loss team that played the hardest schedule, or even a one loss team in many cases. The system doesn't reward stronger schedules- it rewards staying undefeated against decent opponents and playing the conference schedule out. So there's almost no incentive to schedule multiple difficult games during a season, or even any hard non conference game.

Well, besides the opening weekend. A nationally televised opener brings in tons of revenue (millions for each team), tons of exposure to fans and possible recruits, and also acts as either a defining win to start the season or a safeguard for the rest of the season. If the team wins, they instantly get tons of media attention and become national title contenders (unless the team they beat absolutely falls apart during the year, which is rare). If they lose, though, they can always say that they lost to a good team and then run the table and become the best one loss team in the Nation by the end of the year.

Losing once is devastating in College Football- it sends panic into the voters, who move the team down in the rankings, affecting the BCS standings. When a team loses early, though, it is able to build momentum throughout the rest of the season and climb back up the polls, even before the BCS standings are released. The voters have a fairly short memory, and a first week loss is gradually forgotten, forgiven, and the team is given consideration right behind or sometimes in front of the undefeated teams. Losing late in the season effectively shuttles any chance for a BCS bowl- the team has no time to recover from the drop in the polls and it usually ends up with losing at least a shot at the National title if not a chance at a BCS Bowl. For example, the 2008 Texas Tech team that shocked Texas had a chance at a BCS Bowl if not the National Title late in the season; and were then beaten by Oklahoma. They lost the division tiebreaker to Texas, didn't get to play in the Big 12 title game, and were put in the Cotton Bowl. Texas, a team TEXAS TECH HAD BEATEN, got to play in the Fiesta Bowl. Texas lost earlier and could recover; Texas Tech was shut out because of a late loss to a team many thought was #1 in the Nation. It's always better to lose early, unless it's a disaster on the level of Michigan-Appalachian State.

So the programs of these teams entering big games this weekend aren't really taking that big of a risk. They get money, exposure, and the chance to make a huge statement to the voters early in the season. If they lose, they still have the chance to make it up throughout the season instead of suffering a huge setback late in the season. Don't get me wrong- I'm excited to watch these games, but it will be with the knowledge that this is a calculated risk, a game that won't really affect the National title race unless it is a drubbing. It's not ballsy. It's just smart.

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