It's Sunday morning, but not just any Sunday morning. It's the day after Christmas. Since yesterday was such an awesome day, it's bound to be a letdown. All thats left is to enjoy your gifts more and watch football. Which isn't so bad after all.
Detroit at Miami (-3.5)
Props to NFL schedule makers who put the Lions in two straight games in Florida in the middle of December, letting the Lions escape winter in Detroit. The Dolphins are a mess, quite simply, with barely a semblance of an offense, with a good run defense and mediocre pass defense. With Shaun Hill starting, the Lions can actually put points on the board (they have a good passing game), and their defense should be able to contain the weak punches the Dolphins throw at them. Lions win outright.
Washington at Jacksonville (-7)
Jacksonville. at home, playing to stay alive in the AFC South, against the Rex Grossman led Redskins, with nothing at stake? Jaguars win and cover, even without Mojo D.
San Francisco at St.Louis(-2.5)
Oh god, I almost just threw up Christmas dinner thinking about this whole division. I've been doing "Hell Games" all year, but this is just a Hell division. I hope St.Louis makes it to the playoffs this year after coming off having the worst record in the league. So, Rams win and cover. 49ers finally die.
New England (-7.5) at Buffalo
This game was actually very exciting last time they played, and both teams have progressed hugely since then. While the Bills have made the jump from "awful" to "competitive", the Patriots have made the jump from "good" to "dominant". I'll take dominant to win and cover here. But, I really hope I'm wrong. Nothing would make this season better than seeing the Patriots lose in Buffalo. A Christmas miracle that would silence every Masshole...please, Santa/God, please, let me be wrong on this pick. But also let Brady have a good game (I'm in the fantasy championships, ok!)
NY Jets at Chicago (-2.5)
Mark Sanchez is injured, playing in cold weather, and against the Bears defense. As impressive as last weeks win over the Steelers was, I don't see it being two in a row. Bears will be able to move the ball and more importantly stop the Jets. Bears win and cover.
Baltimore (-3.5) at Cleveland
Seems like a low spread here. Baltimore is playing to stay in contention for the division crown, and coming off a huge win. The Browns are playing for pride, I guess, but not much else. I'll take the Ravens to win and cover, behind a big game from Ray Rice (the Browns couldn't stop Cedric Benson last week...).
Tennessee at Kansas City (-4)
Kansas City is also playing for a division crown against the enigmatic Titans. I think the Chiefs should be able to limit the Titan's offense (specifically Chris Johnson) enough to win the game, but it should be close. Chiefs win, Titans cover.
Indianapolis (-1.5) at Oakland
Both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt, with the Raiders very much on the outside, needing a lot of help. The Colts just need to keep winning, and I can't see Peyton letting this one slip, so Colts win and cover.
Houston (-2.5) at Denver
Tim Tebow was better than expected last week, but still doesn't scream NFL Quarterback. A capable NFL defense should be able to shut him down, but, alas, the Texans are not that defense. Even so, I expect the Texans to just outscore the Broncos. Texans win, Broncos cover in a close one.
San Diego (-8) at Cincinnati
San Diego is playing for it's life here, and Cinci is just terrible, and without its top two Wide Receivers. San Diego stays alive with a win, and it hard to see them dropping this one-San Diego wins and cover, and Marvin Lewis gets closer to the unemployment line.
Seattle at Tampa Bay (-6.5)
Seattle also has a chance at the NFC West "crown" (maybe a toilet seat), but the Buccaneers also have an outside shot at the playoffs and are a better team overall. Seahawks are on the road, so I can't see them taking this one. Bucs win and cover.
NY Giants at Green Bay (-2)
Coming off one of the worst losses in franchise history, The Giants now face, basically, an elimination game against the Packers. Teams can either be galvanized by a loss or let it hang over them. Eli Manning doesn't seem like the kind of leader who could galvanize his team. The Packers almost beat the Patriots last week with Matt Flynn at the helm, and now return Aaron Rodgers against a worse team. Green Bay stays alive, winning and covering at Lambeau.
Minnesota at Philadelphia(-14)
Minnesota stumbles into Philadelphia with Joe Webb at QB. I think he'll be offering some Christmas gifts to the Eagles secondary. The Eagles offense is firing on all cylinders and the team is fired up after a huge win last week. I look for the momentum to continue-Philly wins and covers. And god, who picked this flex game?
New Orleans at Atlanta (-2.5)
Besides Packers-Giants, this might be the game of the week. These two are duking it out for the NFC South, and have looked like the best teams in the NFC recently. Unfortunately, the game is in Atlanta, where Matt Ryan and the Falcons are nearly untouchable. The Saints will keep it close and exciting, and cover, but the Falcons will win.
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