Ahhh, wintertime. My toes are always cold, but I somehow love it. Mostly because school's off for a couple of weeks (so I can write more), you can go sledding, it's crunch time in the NFL, and, oh yeah, Christmas and New Years! But anyway, on to the picks. A lot of playoff deciding matchups this week, along with a lot of really awful ones. It's also the semi-finals for most fantasy playoffs (like mine!), which adds a level of excitement or heartbreak to the proceedings.
I already got my Chargers pick right, so, good start.
Kansas City at St.Louis (-3)
The Chiefs are in a precarious position, having to hold off the surging Chargers, and unsure of Matt Cassel's status after his appendectomy. He's a game time decision, which means Brodie Croyle, he of "0-10" fame, and leader of a scoreless offense (even with two great running backs) could be starting. If Croyle starts, the Chiefs lose, and St.Louis gains some footing in their pathetic division. And, you know what? I kind of like the Rams in this game even if Cassel plays. They're at home, battling for the playoffs, and play solid football. The Chiefs have gotten lucky a couple too many times this year, and here it runs out. Rams win, cover if Croyle starts. Chiefs cover if Cassel plays.
Houston at Tennessee (-1.5)
Yeech. Two teams who need new coaches and are fading fast. Both teams played it close last week against better opponents, but both showed in the end how far they are from being real contenders-every team can make it close, but not every team can win. I guess I like Houston here, because of their offense, whereas the Titans have Kerry Collins running the show. Houston covers and wins.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-4.5)
Peyton Manning finally turned it on last week, albeit against a weak Titans secondary. His team, though, is banged up and hanging by a thread. I like the Jaguars. This year is so wacky, so why not add "Colts miss the playoffs" to the list of crazy stories? The Jaguars run the ball well, and the Colts have a bad run defense; and I think they can match points with Peyton Manning. The Jaguars are a team of destiny (see the Mike Thomas hail mary). They feel like they're not getting any respect, and they can feel a playoff birth right in front of them. The Colts will be desperate, but the Jaguars aren't going to sit down for this one. Jags outright win. Goodbye Peyton! Love, The Playoffs. (At least I hope).
Arizona at Carolina (-2.5)
Ahhhhhh, here's your Hell Game! The only way this game could be worse is if the Panthers were in the NFC West. Your QB Matchup is Jimmy Clausen against John Skelton. The horrible-ness of this game can't be overstated. I hope my eyes never touch a highlight from this game. Forced to pick a "winner" to this game, I'll take the Cardinals. The Panthers are a bizzaro team of destiny. They are meant to get the number 1 pick, and losing this game will solidify that position. Cardinals win outright.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-1)
Who knew Ohio could be so depressing? Oh wait, everyone. LeBron leaves, the Indians suck (at least the Reds made it to the playoffs-to get swept), and nobody cares about Hockey (shame). Cinci is terrible, and the Browns return Colt McCoy this week, which means good things for an offense stagnant behind Jake Delhomme. With that, I say Cleveland wins outright. Week 15 is feeling Upset-y! (Or, with my luck, it will be nothing like that).
Buffalo at Miami (-5)
Rivalry game (though no one outside of Buffalo/ old timers knows it)! Unfortunately, the game is not in Buffalo for the frigid conditions (damn you, NFL schedule makers!), so some level of advantage is given to the Dolphins. BUT they're only 1-5 at home (playing extremely quality opponents, though...). Either way, the Dolphins have a top 5 defense, so even if their offense falters, they should be able to, for the most part, bottle up my beloved Bills (they won again! Goodbye Andrew Luck...). Buffalo can play with anyone, but getting consistent production from either side of the ball has been a problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see a low score, which favors Buffalo covering. Miami wins, Bills cover.
Philadelphia at NY Giants (-3)
Now here's another good game this weekend- a battle for the top of the NFC East, for a home playoff game (basically). The Giants "contained" Michael Vick last time and still ended up losing, so I can't see them doing much better the second time around. The Giants offense, particularly Eli Manning, haven't been doing so well as of late, and the Eagles defense is no cake walk. The Eagles should take this one.
Washington at Dallas (-7)
Here's a question for you, Redskins fans...How much do you trust Rex "Sexy" Grossman? That's right, the guy who "led" a team to the Super Bowl and then lost his job returns to a starting job over Donovan McNabb (ok, he hasn't been great, but he hasn't been bench-worthy. Shanahan might be losing his touch...). Dallas is actually playing well, almost beat the Eagles last week, and hate the Redskins. This is the biggest game of their season. So yeah, Dallas wins and covers. Watch the Rex Grossman era begin and end in Washington.
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-4.5)
Tampa Bay needs a win to remain in the playoff hunt, Detroit is starting Drew Stanton. Bucs should be able to pass all over a weak secondary, Detroit might be able to take advantage of injuries in the Buc's secondary. Overall, it seems like Tampa has the advantage here, they'll win and cover. Another sad weekend for Detroit.
New Orleans at Baltimore (-1.5)
Another good game. Baltimore, though, hasn't looked all that impressive lately, while New Orleans seems to have hit a fifth gear. They're close to a #1 seed (one game back of Atlanta), and should be playing with some passion. Baltimore is also close to a division crown, but as I said, not playing so hot lately. Offense looks lost at times. Saints win outright.
Atlanta (-6) at Seattle
Even with Seattle's huge home field advantage, Atlanta is playing at a consistently high level, and for a #1 seed, so I don't see them losing this game. And Seattle never loses closely, so, Atlanta wins and covers.
NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-5.5)
What would be more delicious than the Jets sliding at the end of the season and maybe...missing...the playoffs! (ellipses for unbridled enthusiasm from the writer). Their fatalist fans certainly think its possible. The team hasn't scored a TD in two games. Mark Sanchez is playing horribly (put a California boy in cold weather...), and teams now know that they have to force him to make plays to beat the Jets. The Steelers defense is scary good, the team wants to clinch a first round bye, and can sense a weak opponent. The Steelers win and cover at home, and Jets fans start to sweat just a little bit more.
Denver at Oakland (-7.5)
This is a pretty high spread for a team that has yet to prove it can win on a consistent basis, but, they're also playing a team that lost (badly) to the John Skelton lead Cardinals. And Tim Tebow is expected to start this weekend. That's right, Jesus himself, less than a week till his birthday, will take the snaps for the Broncos. Oh wait, it's just an average at best NFL quarterback. Raiders win and cover behind another huge game from Darren McFadden.
Green Bay at New England (-14)
If Aaron Rodgers was playing, this game might be close. But it's Matt Flynn, who couldn't manage a touchdown against the Lions. Even with an extra week of prep, I still can't see him matching points with the juggernaut that is the Patriots right now. 14 would seem like a ridiculous spread in a normal circumstance, but the Patriots are on another level right now. Even against a quality Packers defense, I can see them scoring 35+. Patriots win and cover.
Chicago (-7.5) at Minnesota
Though it's awesome that Minnesota will be playing outdoors, they're starting Joe Webb at QB. The Bears want a division crown, and won't let Minnesota stay in it. It'll be a rude debut for Webb. Dangerous and icy turf or no, the Bears will win and cover.
In a non sports related note, here's my top 10 albums of the year. Sorry if these sail over your head, but you should check them out. Or ignore this whole item.
1.The National-High Violet
2.Arcade Fire-The Suburbs
3.Kanye West-My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy
4.LCD Soundsystem-This is Happening
5.Sufjan Stevens-The Age of Adz
6.Los Campesinos!-Romance is Boring
7.Beach House-Teen Dream
8.Titus Andronicus-The Monitor
9.Wild Nothing-Gemini
10. Vampire Weekend-Contra
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