 |
| The Bills 100 Million Dollar Man, Mario Williams |
Ok folks, let's be honest: this blog has been dead for a while. I was back in the great white North once again this summer, leading canoe trips, and unable to write. Now, I'm back in Montreal, and do most of my writing (and spend most of my earthly time) over at The McGill Daily, where I'm editing the sports section this year. Add that into school starting up again, and there just isn't very much time left for ol' Super Cursed.
...
...
BUT: It's football season again!!! And I have the unquenchable thirst to make my picks again, every week! This is just one thing I can't help but write about, and the Daily wouldn't run this in a million years (especially at this length), so here I am again. Week One of my weekly picks column usually acts as a sort of season preview, where I, longtime football fan (and long-suffering Bills fan) give my completely unsolicited and unprofessional view on how the season will play out for each team, along with a straight up and against the spread (ATS) pick. Here goes:
Dallas at NY Giants (-3.5)
In order to save President Obama's DNC from getting trounced in the ratings by the NFL opener, the league graciously moved this game to Wednesday. The defending Super Bowl Champion Giants get their showcase game against a hated division rival, and I don't think it will be as close as the spread suggests. The Giants have flown under the radar all offseason as all media attention in New York has shifted to Tim Tebow. The Giants still have one of the best defensive lines in the league, and the offense, which became scary good over the last half of last season, should pick up right where they left off. That combination of pass rush and pass offense is pretty hard to beat in today's NFL, and I like the Giants' chances to repeat as NFC East Champs. The Cowboys, to me, don't seem much improved from the team that limped to the finish last year- they upgraded their secondary, but the rest of the defense is unremarkable outside of DeMarcus Ware, and Tony Romo may be one of the least clutch QBs of all time. This Cowboys team might come out of the gates hot (as in previous years), but what's going to stop their usual late season swoon this year? The Cowboys are a wild card at best. For this game, I like the Giants, eager to start their title defense well, taking a high scoring game against the Cowboys.
Pick: Giants win, cover
(Update from the future: Look how wrong I was!!! Although I would say if the Giants hadn't injured all their corners, the Cowboys wouldn't have had as much success. Still stand by these predictions)
Indianapolis at Chicago (-9.5)
As much as it pained me to say it, the Bears were headed to the playoffs last year before Matt Forte and Jay Cutler were injured. I'm still not sure how, though: they had (and still have) a terrible offensive line and had no quality wide receivers. The defense is solid as always, though, and Cutler and Forte were able to move the ball well together. Cutler and Forte return this year and the Bears have brought on (totally batshit) wide receiver Brandon Marshall, which should ignite the passing offense, as long as Cutler can stay upright. The Colts picked up some guy named Andrew Luck. The rest of the team is awful. Phenomenal seasons by rookie quarterbacks are fun to watch, but don't often result in playoff appearances- which is what we should see in Indy. Luck should be great, but the lack of depth on defense and a running game will keep this team from getting more than six wins (remember, this team plays in a division with Tennessee and Jacksonville- six wins isn't so unreasonable). As for this game, I like the Bears at home, but think Luck and the Colts will remain within the spread. The one benefit to rookie quarterbacks is the lack of tape on them- opposing defenses have a harder time preparing a game plan to stop them.
Pick: Bears win, Colts cover
Philadelphia (-8.5) at Cleveland
The torch of "most depressed NFL city" ought to be firmly placed in Cleveland's hands at this point. The Browns have decided to place their immediate future in the hands of a 28 year old ROOKIE quarterback (Brandon Weeden). And even with seven years on pretty much everyone else in the NCAA, it's not like he won any Heisman trophies- he was just a good college quarterback. Good thing the Browns helped out Weeden and addressed their gigantic, glaring need at wide receiver by picking up... (searches Google)... (sees that the Browns did nothing to address this). The defense is just about league average. This train wreck of an offense paired with that defense, playing in perhaps the hardest division in the NFL (the AFC North) leads me to believe that this will be a looong season in Cleveland, with a top 5 draft pick. As for the Eagles, after a season where almost everything that could've gone wrong went wrong, they seem due to bounce back. As long as Michael Vick can stay healthy, the offense is full of weapons. The defense got the linebacker they needed in trading for DeMeco Ryans, and have committed Nmandi Asomugah is returning to his preferred position on the outside (as opposed to guarding slot receivers). All this spells good news for the defense, which needed to improve to get this team back to the playoffs. For this game, it's pretty easy to see who I like, right?
Pick: Eagles win, cover
Buffalo at NY Jets (-3)
On to the Bills. Last year, I predicted 6-9 wins, or the Bills would bottom out and win 2 games. And they kind of did all of those things! They got to 5-2, then lost 9 of their last 10 games, which was wonderful to watch. The defense was terrible for most of the year- no pass rush, no corners, no run defense (especially after Kyle Williams went down with an injury)- and the offense fell apart halfway through the season as teams figured out that Fitzpatrick couldn't throw deep and Fred Jackson-who accounted for a ridiculous percentage of the Bills' offensive touches- was lost for the season. So what did the Bills do this offseason? They signed Mario Williams. Wait, I'm going to let that sink in AGAIN, because it is still ridiculous. The Bills signed the best defensive player on the market and one of the best defensive pass rushers of the past decade, for 100 million dollars. BUFFALO did that. Then they signed a situational pass rusher (Mark Anderson) and drafted a stud cornerback (Stephon Gilmore). The linebackers could still use a little work, but the defense is definitely much improved. On paper, this is one of the best defensive lines in the league, and Gilmore is already projecting to be a number one corner. On offense, the team returns basically the same starting lineup from last year, but with a new rookie Left Tackle (Cordy Glenn) and a rookie WR (TJ Graham) who could be a #2, deep threat wide receiver. Some have attributed Buffalo's offensive slide to Ryan Fitzpatrick, our occasionally brilliant quarterback, breaking his ribs- though some comes with opponents figuring out the Bills schemes- lots of short slants, screens and draws.
All signs point to this being a better Bills team, one that could compete for a wild card spot this year. And I hope that's the case. But it's the Bills, and every year I get more and more resigned that they will just crap the bed. This is not some sort of Bill-Simmons-Reverse-Jinx. I will not believe the Bills are bound for the playoffs until they clinch their spot. Like, as soon as the seconds tick off the clock of that game. For now, I hope to be proven wrong, hope that they start strong and stay strong over what looks to be an easy back half of the schedule.
As for the Jets? This team looks like a trainwreck. Mark Sanchez hasn't proven himself to be a legitimate NFL quarterback, and his backup, you may have heard of him (TEBOWWWWWW) is perhaps worse. The offense has one legitimate wide receiver (Santonio Holmes), a malcontent, and are committed to running the ball with a decent at best running back (Shonn Greene). The defense isn't as impressive as it was two or three years ago. It just looks like a bad team, to me. But they've owned the Bills the past few years and seem to be in their heads.
But you know what? At the forefront of a Bills season full of so much hope (a lot of media are picking them for the playoffs, the fans are excited...), the propensity for the Bills to disappoint me is too strong. The Jets will win this one. I hope I'm wrong.
Pick: Jets win, cover
Washington at New Orleans (-7)
After what might have been the most tumultuous off season in NFL history, the Saints begin their season without their head coach and middle linebacker. If anything, I think this will motivate the Saints this season, making it an us against the league type situation. They still have an elite offense (minus Robert Meachem, but that's not a huge loss) and an aggressive defense that tries to force turnovers. I like them to win the NFC South. It's a quarterback league, and Drew Brees, if you haven't noticed, is one of the best in the league. As for Washington, they've salvaged their future in order to get RG3, but the rest of the team remains the same from last year- nothing special. The defense has some standouts, but not a ton of depth, and the offense has no clear running back and overpaid, not-that-talented receiver corps. Add in the fact that the Redskins don't have first round picks for a while because of the RG3 trade, and it seems like we'll be seeing a couple more bad years from the Redskins. Doesn't the pick for this game seem obvious?
Pick: Saints win, cover
New England (-5.5) at Tennessee
Not sure why the line is so low on this game. New England is a known quantity- elite nearly every year- while Tennessee is a mystery this year. The Patriots return one of the league's most potent offenses, and now add Brandon Lloyd to the mix, giving the Patriots a deep threat they have sorely missed since Randy Moss left. The defense was atrocious last year, but the Patriots actually decided- *gasp*- to use some first and second round picks on the defense, which should improve the overall unit (although, to be fair, they can't get much worse). They are basically the AFC favorites heading into this year. The dirty little secret about last year's team is that they weren't really good enough to be a Super Bowl team. This year, they're better. As for the Titans, this is a team that somehow finished at 9-7 and a game out of the playoffs. Think to yourself- do you remember one signature win for the Titans in the last eight weeks last season? It only came against an injured Texans team resting for the playoffs in Week 17. This year they've turned over the quarterback position to Jake Locker, who has extreme athleticism but not much in the way of what makes great quarterbacks really great- accuracy. He hasn't looked horrible this pre-season, though, and the rest of the offense is full of talent. The defense is nothing special, but also nothing to scoff at. In a division as weak as the AFC South, I see no problem with them finishing second in the division and threatening for a playoff spot. For this game, though, it should be business as usual for the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots win, cover
Jacksonville at Minnestoa (-3.5)
Oof. Well, not every game can be a winner, and this one, on paper, looks to be terrible. Vikings QB Christian Ponder was a first round reach in last year's draft, and he goes against Blaine Gabbert, another first round reach! The excitement is palpable here. If you are trying to see a gruesome injury, keep an eye on Adrian Peterson as he tries to return from an ACL injury months before most doctors would reasonably allow! Or, if you like malcontented receivers, watch as brand new Jaguars receivers (Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson) get increasingly frustrated with Blaine Gabbert's horrible inaccuracy! (Yes, he's been better this pre-season, but I've seen too many quarterbacks excel in the pre-season and go back to being horrible when the games count). Also, the Jaguars have a sneaky good defense that should keep this game close, despite the Jaguars' offensive deficiencies (star running back Maurice Jones Drew is just coming off a holdout, which never works out too well). Ponder has shown more flashes of actual ability at QB than Gabbert, and has Percy Harvin at WR, and they're at home-good enough for me. In the long run, though, both these teams don't look like playoff teams.
Pick: Vikings win, Jaguars cover
Miami at Houston (-13)
Speaking of Blaine Gabbert and non-playoff teams, Miami drafted Ryan Tannehill in the first round this year, just to make sure they don't make the playoffs. Seriously, this guy is a wide receiver turned quarterback who was merely league average in the Big 12. But due to the quarterback draft hype cycle, he got bumped up about 30 spots in the draft by the attention starved Dolphins. And then they traded one of their best defensive players, CB Vontae Davis. Basically, I wouldn't bet on them going anywhere fast this year. As for the Texans, they were close to the AFC Championship game last year even though they they starting TJ Yates at QB. Now that they've got Matt Schaub back, a healthy (for as long as that happens) Andre Johnson, and the most consistent running back in football, Arian Foster. The defense lost Mario Williams (who was injured for the most of the season) and DeMeco Ryans, but was still one of the best units in the NFL. They should roll through their weak division and really roll over the hilariously bad Dolphins.
Pick: Texans win, cover
St. Louis at Detroit (-8)
The Lions finally made due on their considerable talent and made the playoffs last year, led by a pass happy offense (seriously, NO running game) and ultimately brought down by their porous pass defense (seriously, NO corner backs). They still have a great defensive line and will still be able to pass (if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for a second year in a row), but they didn't make any huge improvements from last year, and a healthy Bears team has closed the gap in the NFC North. Getting to the playoffs will be tougher this year- and I see them beating bad teams but struggling against the elite. They'll either get the last wild card or just fall short. The Rams, a sleeper pick last year, completely fell apart last year as Sam Bradford struggled through injuries. They have a new coach in Jeff Fisher, and that seems good to give them about 4 more wins this year (remember, this team went 7-9 two years) ago. 6-10 seems about right, yeah? Still, this Rams team won't be able to contain the Lions offense and won't be able to move the ball well (weak crop of receivers).
Pick: Lions win, cover
Atlanta (-2.5) at Kansas City
The Falcons are once again a trendy pick to go to the Super Bowl, due to people expecting a huge improvement from Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. While I think the Falcons can still be a playoff team (winning the NFC South or getting the wild card behind the Saints), the defense hasn't significantly improved since last year (sorry, Asante Samuel does not count), and that will be their downfall against elite offensive teams like the Saints, Packers, Patriots. They might win a playoff game this year, but I don't see them in the Super Bowl. As for Kansas City, they would have sleeper potential written all over them (unlucky with injuries last year, stout defense, capable offense with Jamaal Charles coming back), but Romeo Crennel is the coach. In a muddled AFC West, though, they could find a way to win the division, but I'd trust the other teams in that division first. For this game, although they're on the road against an unknown quantity, I like the Falcons to win by a touchdown or so.
Pick: Falcons win, cover
San Francisco at Green Bay (-4.5)
The 49ers were the surprise team of last year, going 13-3 behind the league's best defense and...well... a lot of David Akers field goals! The offense last year was horribly conservative, going for draw plays on third and longs instead of trying to, you know, throw it. Basically, they were shielding Alex Smith. Now they've surrounded him with weapons in receivers Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, as well as rookie running back LaMichael James. They have clearly addressed their most glaring need, but it remains to be seen if Alex Smith can become more than a quarterback who doesn't make mistakes. I expect a slight regression for the team, but that defense should be good enough to get them at least a Wild Card. As for the Packers, they ought to be the best in the NFC North again. Aaron Rodgers has assumed the throne as the best QB in the league and the defense can only get better after last year's disaster. In this game, what is surely the game of the week, I think the Packers come out on top. While their offense may be limited somewhat by the 49ers, the 49ers offense is still unproven- who knows if they can outscore even a limited Packers offense? So I'll take the Packers in a close one.
Pick: Packers win, 49ers cover
Carolina (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
The Panthers, led by Cam Newton, were 2011's most entertaining team- but entertainment doesn't get you wins. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, was one of the league's disappointments. While some are lauding the hire of Greg Schiano from Rutgers and calling for a Buccaneers resurgence, I have my doubts. Schiano was never that successful at Rutgers, and is a known disciplinarian. While Jim Harbaugh, another 'tough' cough, had a ton of success last year, how many hard-ass coaches have we seen fail in the NFL? I feel like Schiano could be just like Harbaugh's predecessor in San Francisco, Mike Singletary, who lost all the respect of his team with his stern rules. Plus, it remains to be seen whether this team has a viable QB in Josh Freeman or a solid defense. The Panthers, meanwhile, didn't do much to get better in the offseason, and are hoping that returns from injuries will help them get over the hump. I don't see it yet- Newton struggled over the second half of last season, and might run into trouble again, and the defense still isn't anything special. They'll play in a bunch more shootouts, and maybe get a win or two more, but their division is too tough to make the playoffs. The Panthers might just be a year away. For this game, I'll take them, though, because I have yet to see how the Buccaneers respond to their new coach.
Pick: Panthers win, cover
Seattle (-2.5) at Arizona
People are starting to overload the Russell Wilson bandwagon in Seattle, as the undersized rookie beat out high priced free agent Matt Flynn for the starting job. While I loved the guy in college, I'm hesitant to drink the Kool-Aid. The difference between the regular season and the pre-season is vast, and teams will start to be able to game plan for this guy. He will struggle. Still, the Seahawks were sneaky good at the end of last year, and should be able to compete in a weak NFC West- perhaps for a wild card. The Cardinals, meanwhile, look like a candidate for the worst team in the league. That's what happens when John Skelton, the "developmental" project from Fordham, is named your starter in Week 1. (He was labeled developmental in 2010- and still looks the part today!) The only plus they have is Larry Fitzgerald at receiver (not getting the quarterbacking he deserves) and Patrick Peterson at corner back. Two stars does not a team make. So I like the Seahawks here- the Cardinals look like a tire fire this year.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover
Pittsburgh at Denver (-1.5)
Ah, the return of Peyton Manning. The Broncos found the only way to extricate themselves from the Tebow situation by managing to land one of the best quarterbacks in league history. While it sounds like a dream come true, the signing is tempered by the fact that Manning is coming off four major neck surgeries and has had to regain his arm strength as he recovers- no one knows how he will handle a big hit or if he can throw with the same velocity he had before- pre-season results have been inconclusive. Add in the fact that advanced metrics show that the Broncos were NOT a playoff worthy team last year, and the Manning signing doesn't immediately make the Broncos a Super Bowl team. If Manning plays like the Manning of old, they win the AFC West easily. If not, well, I can't see a below average Manning carrying a below average supporting cast to the playoffs.
The Steelers, on the other hand, seem to be underrated this year- even though I thought they were the best team in the NFL with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. No team could match their mixture of pass attack and solid, turnover producing defense. And, despite that defense getting older, I like this team again. The running game remains a problem, but I still like them in the AFC North (more on the Ravens next). For this game, I like them as well- I just can't believe in Manning yet.
Pick: Steelers win, cover
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)
The Ravens, like the Falcons, are another trendy pick to make the Super Bowl. It's not hard to see why- they were a dropped Lee Evans pass or missed Billy Cundiff field goal away from the Super Bowl last year. I'm not as high on them as others, though. I'm not sold on Joe Flacco, star NFL QB, yet. Reports from the preseason are praising the new no-huddle offense. But I don't remember the last time a no-huddle offense actually worked in the NFL, besides, of course, the Jim Kelly Bills of the 90s. The Trent Edward/ Terrell Owens Bills tried it out a couple of years ago to little effect. Add in the fact that the Ravens have lost Terrell Suggs for about half the season, and this team might not be as good on either side of the ball. I can pencil them in for a Wild Card spot, but the success of last year might be hard to repeat.
The same goes for the Bengals, who unexpectedly rode Andy Dalton to the playoffs last year. The defense is still stout, but it remains to be seen if the offense can get more dynamic than just "Andy Dalton to AJ Green!" I think they'll regress a bit this year (too many close wins last year) but will be a tough out for many teams, and come close to the playoffs. In this game, the Ravens should be good enough to win, but a seven point spread seems fishy to me.
Pick: Ravens win, cover
San Diego at Oakland (-1)
Last year, before Darren McFadden and Jason Campbell were injured and the world went to Carson-Palmer-shit for the Raiders, they had established themselves as a power running team that could beat you deep on the play action, with a nasty defensive front. While the front office has released some overpriced veterans from that group, the identity remains the same, and if McFadden can stay healthy (that's a big if) I like this team to make some noise in the AFC West. The Chargers, meanwhile, may have wasted away their championship window laboring under the horrible coaching of Norv Turner. Phillip Rivers might bounce back from his awful season last year, but the offense lost it's best receiver. Running back Ryan Matthews, while talented, has yet to make it through a season injury free (and he won't this year, as he misses the first game). The defense is still not good enough to keep this team out of shootouts. Either Phillip Rivers puts in a remarkable comeback season, or I don't see this team making the playoffs. Which is a long way of saying, I like a healthy Raiders team in this game- doesn't San Diego always manage to mess up the late Monday Night game?
Pick: Raiders win, cover
Overall: 0-1
ATS: 0-1
No comments:
Post a Comment