Week 11 NFL Picks: Up or Down From Here?

The only highlight for the Bills last week. Literally. Yet, they're still in the playoff hunt.

It's weird to think that we're getting very close to the end of this NFL season. Huh? I've watched 9 weeks of Bills football? That's three months! It's now the crux of the season; teams can either fade away, as the Bills seemingly are right now, or they can fight through November, rising as the season enters its' last quarter. As I said before, the Bills have faded since their hot start;  they started 3-0 and, since then, have gone 2-4. But they remain alive in the playoff race, because the AFC is seriously muddled right now. There isn't one dominating team in the AFC so far, every team has a fatal flaw, and everyone is basically sitting in a muddle between 7 and 5 wins.

The Texans, at the top of the conference, just lost starter Matt Schaub for the rest of the season, putting revered partier, not so revered football player Matt Leinart at the helm. The Ravens are blisteringly inconsistent. The Steelers, for all their improvement, can't beat the Ravens. The Patriots have an atrocious defense and Tom Brady has looked decidedly mortal. The Bengals and Jets don't have good offenses (with the Jets being appreciably worse than the Bengals.) The West is a logjam of mediocre teams. The Titans are struggling on offense and defense, but have managed to stick around. And, of course, The Bills.

The Bills have a bad, bad defense that can't generate pressure. When they don't force turnovers, they're dead. The offense has become stagnant, and teams have figured out how to beat the spread. Basically, their flaws have been badly exposed. But due to the uncertainty in the AFC, they still have a shot at turning it around and making a playoff run. It has to start this week, or the beginning of the season was just a flash in the pan, a brief vision of what a competitive team in Buffalo could look like.

Anyway, onto the picks. My Thursday Night pick was once again wrong. The short weeks are definitely helping the underdogs so far. Also, Tebow. More than enough has been said about him. It's bizarre to watch him, because he looked horrendous through all four quarters; then led an amazing 95 yard game winning touchdown drive. I've never seen anything like it; a complete and utter transformation. The defense kept him in the game, and then he delivered. If he can ever put it together for more than just the end of a game, then there's a world of potential for him, even if he defies almost every convention of NFL quarterbacking. So, yes, 0-1 this week, but I'm happy about it, because the Jets lost. And that can never be a bad thing.

Last week, I went 10-6 Overall and 9-7 ATS. Can't complain.

Tennessee at Atlanta (-6)


The Titans are now back to being AFC South contenders, without even trying. Now that Matt Schaub is down for the Texans, it looks as if the Titans can contend for the AFC South (unless Matt Leinart keeps the ship from sinking). Still, they haven't been very good all season; last week, they beat up on an overrated (yes, a two win team can be overrated) Panthers team. The Falcons, on the other hand, have shown a propensity to lose close games this season, but also have a stouter defense than the Panthers, which should stop the Titans somewhat anemic offense. The Falcons offense is still the plodding, methodical unit of last year, and, while not always pretty (Julio Jones has brought some excitement to it, though), they can usually put up enough points to win. The Titans are going to be playing harder, because they have a new hope for the division title, but the Falcons, at home, should be able to get it done- they are playing for their playoff lives, too- they either need to catch the Saints in the division or win a wild card spot in a crowded NFC race.
Pick: Falcons win, Titans cover


Buffalo at Miami (-2)


Well, who woulda thought that Miami would be a home favorite in this game even two weeks ago? The Dolphins have ripped off a two game winning streak, and the Bills have faltered badly in two straight, setting up this line, where a 2-7 team is favored over the 5-4 one. As I said before, the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and REALLY need this one; they've been embarrassed the last two weeks, and they are (hopefully) looking to get back on track. Also, them being underdogs to a 2-7 team should light a fire under them. If they lose this one, it's done. If they win this one, and the Jets game next week, they would have sufficient momentum to get a Wild Card or even challenge the Patriots for the division. They were handed a gift when the Jets lost on Thursday; now they need to respond and try and make a playoff run out of it. I know the Dolphins have been playing well for the past five weeks or so, but they've only beaten the Chiefs and Redskins, two sub-par teams. Blinded by homerism, I will once again go with the Bills. They need it. I need it. Let's hope this is the start of an upward trend, a rising from the trench they've dug for themselves the past two weeks. Squish the Fish!
Pick: Bills win, cover


Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)


The Bengals are without AJ Green and Leon Hall for this game, which should make this a comfortable Ravens win. Unfortunately, the Ravens play to the level of their opponent, beating very good teams and falling to the bottom feeders. The defense is still top class; it's the offense, stuck with an identity crisis, bringing the team down. Specifically, the Ravens have an elite running back in Ray Rice, and they barely use him, instead depending on the inconsistent Joe Flacco. It's not pretty. This game has playoff implications, though, and I think Baltimore will be up for the game. The Bengals, despite their injuries, should keep it close, but I see Baltimore taking it- as long as they care about this game.
Pick: Ravens win, Bengals cover


Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)


Guhhhhhhh. Every game that Jacksonville is involved with turns out to be terribly boring. This one might set new records, replacing "Watching Paint Dry" as the go to descriptor of a boring activity. The Jaguars have a great defense and Maurice Jones Drew on offense. That's it. The Browns? Nothing of note.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover


Oakland at Minnesota (-1)


Tough to figure this one. Oakland is leading the AFC West, currently, while the Vikings sit at 2-7. Yet, the Vikings are the (slim) favorites. I'm having trouble picking either way, so I'm going with what I saw last week- the Raiders were impressive last Thursday in beating the Chargers (and get the long week to rest after that), while the Vikings just got blown out (admittedly, it was against the Packers). Adrian Peterson could take over this game and win it for the Vikings, but, barring that, I like the Raiders. Carson Palmer actually looks to be growing into the QB role for the Raiders, and just in time for a divisional race. Should be enough motivation to beat an underrated Vikings team.
Pick: Raiders win, cover


Carolina at Detroit (-7)


The Lions, like the Bills, have fallen off the face of the planet after a hot start to the season. The Panthers started the season as possible spoiler team- they always managed to keep it close, even against far superior opponents. Both teams have basically been figured out. The Lions still have no running game, and the defensive front can't mask their bad secondary. The Panthers have a horrible defense, and the Cam Newton show on offense isn't as productive as it was to start the season. Detroit's at home, needs to stay in the wild card race, and has more quality on both sides of the ball. I'll take them to win, but the Panthers should be able to stay within a touchdown because Matthew Stafford has lost his accuracy, and the Lions offense is hampered.
Pick: Lions win, Panthers cover


Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14)


Have you watched a Packers game recently? Yeah, they're pretty good, in case you haven't noticed. Have you watched a Buccaneers game lately? Well, they have a stagnant offense and a horrid run defense to go with a decent pass defense. Easy pickings for Aaron Rodgers and co.
Pick: Packers win, cover


Dallas (-7) at Washington


As I saw last week, when Dallas has all its cylinders firing, they are scary good. DeMarco Murray is a talented back, and Tony Romo, when on his game, is among the top ten quarterbacks in the league. The defense can create pressure consistently. (All Cowboys praise comes through gritted teeth.) The Redskins are just bad. Very bad. When John Beck and Rex Grossman are fighting for the quarterback job game to game, well, it's not going well. The offense has no appreciable weapons without Santana Moss, and the defense isn't good enough to bail out the offense. This is one rivalry game that shouldn't be close.
Pick: Cowboys win, cover


Arizona at San Francisco (-10)


Yep, the 49ers are for real. Stout defense, mistake free offense. The Cardinals have won two straight, somehow, behind the quarterbacking of John Skelton. I don't his success continuing against the 49ers, especially on the road. The 49ers should be able to take this one easily and get one step closer to locking up this division.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Seattle at St. Louis (-3)


Can't find a compelling reason why I'm picking the Seahawks here besides the fact that they've looked better than decent the past two weeks (giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch a lot more), while the Rams win over the Saints, their only quality game this year, was an aberration from the norm (see: last week's win against Cleveland which came thanks to a missed field goal.)
Pick: Seahawks win, cover


San Diego at Chicago (-3.5)


The Chargers are infuriating; they have a wealth of talent, but squander it away in every loss. They haven't played an impressive game all season. The Bears, as much as I hate to say it, have hit a stride on both sides of the ball. Jay Cutler has learned to succeed behind a bad offensive line, and Matt Forte has shown the form of his rookie season. Now let the Bears fans Super Bowl proclamations proceed- it's never too early for them. Consistency wins over the potential that the Chargers show but never go through with.
Pick: Bears win, cover


Philadelphia at NY Giants (-5)


No Mike Vick for the Eagles? Vince Young starting in his place? The Giants, at home, coming off a tough loss and looking to take the reins of this division? Check, check, and check. The Eagles are the NFC version of the Chargers, yet somehow worse. The Giants have the defense to neutralize Vince Young and an offense that can exploit the Eagles sub par defense. This is another NFC East rivalry game that shouldn't be close.
Pick: Giants win, cover


Kansas City at New England (-15)


New England silenced the doubters with a huge win over the Jets last week. Now they can take further control of the division with another win, and, lucky for them, they get the Chiefs. The Chiefs have reverted back to their early season form- bad- and are going into this game with Tyler Palko at quarterback. Who? Exactly. New England's defense won't be tested in this game, and the Chiefs offense doesn't have the personnel to slow down Brady and the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


Season: 94-52 Overall, 75-69-2 ATS