NFL Week Seven Picks: Relaxation Station

I'm going to be relaxing in the woods this weekend. Ahhh. 

Along with Week Seven comes the Bills' bye week, which means I can kick back and not nearly have a heart attack during every game. Honestly, the tension I feel during all these close games is not healthy. Too many emotions at once, too much tension, all wringing in my chest. Deep breaths. Deep Breaths. So I'm going to the woods this week. Fresh air, cool breezes, what have you.

Anyway, since I won't get to talk about in a preview, the Bills game last week was disappointing, but not too crushing- they lost to a solid team on the road. If Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't throw one of his two picks, the Bills probably win the game. The offense did well, but only in fits and stretches, showing a lack of consistency at some points. The defense was bad, bad, bad though. They couldn't get a pass rush (how much longer till Arthur Moats is on the field every third and long? Please?) and the pass defense was atrocious. If they weren't leaving guys open, our secondary was probably getting a pass interference call.  As the game wore on, the run defense also broke down, critical in the late stages of the game when the clock is a key factor. The Bills definitely need this bye week to recover from injuries to key players such as Donald Jones, Kyle Williams, Shawne Merriman, Terrence McGee and a lot of the O-Line. In spite of the loss, though, they still look like a good football team, one that should be a joy to watch for the rest of the season. (Of course, in classic Buffalo fashion, there's always the chance they fail miserably.)

Anyway, onto the picks. Last week I went 8-5 overall and ATS. I definitely whiffed on some upsets, but...uh... you miss 100% of the shots you don't take? Also, an anonymous commenter (I have commenters!) stated that last week actually was a good slate of games and cited SF/DET, NYG/BUF, PHI/WSH, HOU/BAL and CAR/ATL as the best of the week. Well, with hindsight, two of those games were good- SF/DET and NYG/BUF, while PHI/WSH was a blowout, CAR/ATL was merely decent, and HOU/BAL was an exercise in red zone futility. (NE/DAL was no fun until the end.) It was also a weak week in that none of these match ups presented any natural rivalries or story lines to make the games more interesting (which was kind of what I meant at the beginning...). Either way... anonymous commenter, that shows you.

Chicago (-1) at Tampa Bay (London)


I really don't get the push to put games overseas or build a market in London. The NFL already is the most popular sport in the US. It doesn't need this extra fan base, unlike, say, basketball, which has moved into China with great success. American Football will never have a solid footing in Europe or England as long as there is Football (Soccer). It's a national and regional identity in England- you identify with the national squad and the hometown team at a level matched only by other Football (Soccer) loving countries. It can't be replaced. You can't rip the soul out of the people. And if not to replace it, why go to be the little sister of the Premier League when there are plenty more viable markets? Whatever, NFL. Keep shipping the Buccaneers over every year to play one schedule altering game a year.

As for the game itself, even without a true home field advantage, I still like the Buccaneers here. Last week they shocked me by scoring above 23 points (!) and beating the Saints, who I think are among the top three in the league. The offense is still troubling (they can't go deep), but the defense is solid. The Bears thwarted my too-cute upset pick on Sunday Night, and beat up on a poor, poor Vikings team. The Bears still have no offensive line and bad receivers that can be neutralized by decent coverage (which the Vikings did not have), and a defense with weak safeties. Looks like a Bucs win to me.
Pick: Buccaneers win, cover


Washington at Carolina (-2.5)


Say hello to your new Redskins QB, John Beck! Can't you feel the excitement coursing through your veins? No? Not yet? I honestly have no idea what anyone sees in John Beck- he's a very mediocre quarterback at best, nothing more than a game manager. The Redskins, apart from QB, didn't run the ball all too well against the Eagles and the defense was nothing special. The Panthers have Cam Newton, and they're at home, and I see that as enough to pick them to win this one. Their defense may be shaky, but it's not like John Beck is going to rip them apart.
Pick: Panthers win, cover


San Diego (-2) at New York Jets


The Jets played some ugly football and buried the hapless Dolphins, supposedly righting their proverbial ship. Still, it's the Dolphins, and with someone competent at QB, that game would've been closer. The Chargers are rested, coming off a bye, and typically get better as the season wears on. They're also welcoming back Antonio Gates, who is a huge part of their offense. Ryan Matthews should be able to run on the Jets D, and once that happens, the passing game will be opened up for Philip Rivers. On the other side, Mark Sanchez is still stumbling in his progression as an elite QB, and the Jets will struggle as long as they can't run the ball and have to rely on Sanchez.
Pick: Chargers win, cover


Seattle at Cleveland (-3)


The Seahawks are coming off the bye, having beaten the Giants, in New York, two weeks ago in a topsy turvy game. Cleveland has shown itself to be a wholly decent team- an average defense paired with an offense that is held back by its lack of receivers. I can't put any faith in the Seahawks yet- they've played better recently, but have so much potential to be awful. The Browns, on the other hand, just keep chugging along, scraping by a win every couple games, never in a pretty fashion. They should find a way to win again this week.
Pick: Browns win, cover


Houston at Tennessee (-3)


Tough one to figure here; the Titans got shellacked in their last game before the bye, struggling without Kenny Britt, and the Texans have faltered since losing Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. Both teams have struggled to stop the run, meaning that this one could be decided by Chris Johnson and Arian Foster. Foster's been the better back so far, but Chris Johnson is primed for a big game. What will probably be most important is the defense, and despite Houston's improvements on that side, I still think the Titans have the edge. Add in home field advantage and it looks like the Titans will take this big AFC South match up, but it should be close.
Pick: Titans win, Texans cover


Denver at Miami (-1.5)


God hath delivereth Tim Tebow, and now he gets his shot at the Broncos starting gig. Against any other opponent, I'd say he's bound to struggle, but this is the Dolphins, who made Mark Sanchez look competent. Miami is awful at home, as well, and seems to be in full on Suck for Luck mode- once you start Matt Moore at QB, it's almost a complicit admission. Denver's got Tebow and an OK defense, while Miami is a poorly coached disaster. See ya later, Tony Sparano (presumably as some team's coordinator)
Pick: Broncos win, cover


Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5)


Detroit lost for this first time in nine regular season games last week, and now it's up to them to respond to adversity. The Falcons took care of the Panthers, but I still haven't seen any week to week consistency out of the Falcons where they look like the elite team they were last year. They're passing game isn't what it was cracked up to be when they drafted Julio Jones, and Michael Turner is not quite as good as he used to be. The defense has major flaws, especially on the line. The Lions have a great passing game but are struggling on the ground after Jahvid Best's concussion. No matter, though- their nasty defense should be able to pick up any slack, and the Lions will be able to bounce back against the good but nowhere near great Falcons.
Pick: Lions win, cover


Kansas City at Oakland (-4.5)


While the Carson Palmer trade was arguably a terrible, terrible decision for the Raiders (trading two first rounders for a QB who hasn't been good since about 2007 is not a shrewd move), he's an improvement over Kyle Boller or any other healthy QB on the roster. They won't need to rely on him too much because the Chiefs are still bad- they've just managed to beat bad teams. They'll shoot down back to Earth in this game.
Pick: Raiders win, cover


Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Arizona


Really surprised this line isn't higher, but I guess the oddsmakers like the Cardinals at home coming off the bye. Still, all evidence to this week points to Kevin Kolb being a bust as a starting NFL QB. The Steelers may have a weaker defense than years past, but their offense has started firing on all cylinders, and I don't see the Cardinals being able to stop them on defense or keep up with them on offense.
Pick: Steelers win, cover


St. Louis at Dallas (-12.5)


Dallas managed to fumble away another win last Sunday as they narrowly lost to the Patriots. This week, they have a luxury of playing a team that shouldn't even be able to stay in the game, especially if QB Sam Bradford doesn't play. With the addition of Brandon Lloyd, the Rams improved their horrible receiving core, but the rest of this team is just plain broken. Dallas should be able to easily capitalize on all the chances the Rams give them.
Pick:Cowboys win, cover


Green Bay (-9) at Minnesota


The Packers are clearly the best team in the league at this point, with an offense that has a multitude of weapons and a defense that can create pressure on the QB and force punts or turnovers. Minnesota is starting Christian Ponder in this game, and Christian Ponder looks like a newer version of Trent Edwards to me. The Vikings defense doesn't stand a chance against this Packers offense, and Christian Ponder is no team's savior.
Pick: Packers win, cover


Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14)


Oh, pity the poor TV executives who have to schedule games so far in advance. With Peyton Manning, this would be a great offensive match up. Now it's just a game of polar opposites- the high octane Saints team with star QB at the helm vs. the slowly decaying corpse of the Colts, with perennial backup at the helm. The Saints don't have a great defense, but it's not like Curtis Painter has the ability to make them pay for it- so I see the Saints moving the ball with ease and winning with ease.
Pick: Saints win, cover


Baltimore (-7.5) at Jacksonville 


I understand why TV executives would schedule Indy and New Orleans, but I do not at all get this match up from any stand point. This is one of the worst games of the week, and I could've seen that when the NFL released its schedule way back in the spring. Not sure why ESPN jumped on this one. Anyway, Baltimore has a great defense and a great running game, and Joe Flacco is slowly developing into a good QB (emphasis on slowly). The Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert, who's just a boring rookie QB, a criminally underused good running game, and a lack of playmakers on defense. This will be yet another Monday Night snoozefest.
Pick: Ravens win, cover


Season: 60-30 Overall, 45-43-2 ATS