NFL Divisional Round Picks

We are heading to the twilight of the NFL season, with 32 teams whittled down to four, and a precious three weeks of games remaining. Well, four if you count the Pro Bowl (and if you do, I just feel bad for you.) That's seven games of football left before the offseason, where we'll sigh and wish we could be watching a Browns game. It gets that bad. So let's carpe diem these last three weeks and enjoy the beauty of playoff football. Last week I went 3-1 overall on my playoff picks and 2-2 against the spread. Hopefully it gets better this week!

New Orleans (-4) at San Francisco


The Saints have been arguably the best team in the NFL in the second half of the season. Since a perplexing Week 9 loss to the Rams (which was preceded, anyway, by a 62-7 thumping of the Colts), the Saints have won eight straight games while putting at least 22 points on the board in every game. In five of those games, they scored 40 or more points. Still, all their "weaker" performances on that stretch and during the season have come on the road, where the conditions are not quite as hospitable as in the Superdome. The offense is a juggernaut, with threats at every skill position. On grass, though, their aren't quite as efficient or impeccable. The 49ers offense is almost entirely predicated on kicking field goals; and when on third and long, they choose to play it safe and run instead of putting the game on Alex Smith's shoulders. Against elite defenses, this will lead to a loss, as seen in the 49ers Thanksgiving loss to the Ravens. The Saints, however, have far from an elite defense. Their scheme, predicated on blitzes and turnovers, isn't producing the way it did in their Super Bowl season. The 49ers defense, on other hand, is elite, with a talented crop of linebackers and a great defensive line. They can stop the run (which was instrumental to the Saints success last week) and have a solid secondary.

All that is a long winded way of saying: I have no idea how this game is going to go. The last time I though the 49ers would lose to a superior offense, they went out and beat the Giants 27-20. Still, you have to worry about an offense that so routinely settles for field goals against an offense like the Saints, which can easily put up forty points.  In a match up like this, where I see great offense vs. great defense, the current league is set up to reward the offense. The Saints have the momentum and the better quarterback; and no matter how dominant the 49ers have been on defense for the season, I can't see them shutting out the Saints, and I can't see Alex Smith leading a game winning drive. It'll be closer than the Saints would like, and they won't hit 40, but they have the tools to come through in the clutch, while the 49ers will need to get ahead early and stay ahead- tough to do when you're putting field goals on the board.
Pick: Saints win, 49ers cover


Denver at New England (-13.5)


The Patriots need to win so that it all ends. Incessant Tebow-mania is ruining sports media. I spent the week hoping that the Elias Sports Bureau would alter the stats so that Tebow would have more or less than 316 yards passing so that this asinine "John 3:16 is his favorite bible verse!!! WHAT A SIGN!" nonsense could end.As Will Leitch tweeted:"Ordinarily, watching sports and reading about those sports provide me almost equal measures of pleasure. Tim Tebow is the marked exception.This absurdity needs to end. Tebow is not a referendum on religion in this country. He is not some miracle weaver. He represents something different to everybody, and therefore represents nothing. He is not special in any way besides being an average mechanical quarterback with a knack for beating 4th quarter defenses or the Steelers extremely misguided defensive plans. They let Tebow have the deep ball with one on one coverage. The problem Tebow has isn't with throws like that, where it's a chuck to a general place that lets the receiver get to it; it's in the true NFL style throws where the ball must be put into a tight window, where accuracy is paramount. He can't make those throws. But hucking it deep? Sure. As long as the Patriots don't treat Tebow like the worst player in the kickball game, they should be able to limit him as they did in their last meeting. The Denver defense isn't as elite as it was when Tebow began his run, and the Patriots should be able to pick it apart once again. The Patriots have a terrible, terrible defense, but their offense should be enough to make up for any trouble Tebow might give them. With that, the coverage can be at least lessened. Because it will never die.
Pick: Patriots win, Broncos cover (what, you thought I would bet against Tebow again? Have to hedge, in case this somehow gets worse.)


Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)


This is the least compelling of the divisional games. The Texans beat a limping Bengals team last week in their first ever playoff game. Props to them; Arian Foster played exceptionally well, and TJ Yates didn't do so poorly at quarterback. Unfortunately for the Texans, they now travel to play the Ravens, whose defense is leagues better than the Bengals. The only worry the Ravens might have is their offense, which has been wildly inconsistent and lags when they decided to lean on Joe Flacco. The Texans have an impressive defense, but might wilt under the pressure of winning this game for the Texans. If the Ravens stick to a game plan heavy on Ray Rice and play the solid defense they've played all year, they should win easily. This is the playoffs, and the Ravens will be playing up for this one (since all year they've played up or down to their opponents). The Ravens might be the most complete team in the AFC field, and I like them here.
Pick: Ravens win, cover


NY Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)


There are plenty of people jumping on the Giants bandwagon here, seeing them as a trendy upset pick of the dominant Packers. I can't join on board. The Packers have one of the worst defenses of all time, but still have the potential to create timely turnovers every game. And their offense? Well, if the back up QB can pilot them to 45 points, without their number one receiver (Greg Jennings), you know you have a special unit. The Giants have the ability to put obscene amounts of pressure of Aaron Rodgers due to their ever-formidable offensive line; but their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. Rodgers is particularly adept at avoiding pressure (unlike, say, Tom Brady) and can throw with ridiculous accuracy even on the run. The Packers offense will be able to score, no doubt. The Giants boast a great passing attack as well, but are more prone to turnovers on offense. This game should be a shootout, with two teams trading points. And while the Giants should be able to get some stops with the pass rush, the Packers should be able to get at least a turnover, and maybe some stops, and let Aaron Rodgers do his work. This will be a battle of attrition, and, in the end, Aaron Rodgers will simply have too much firepower for the Giants to keep up with.
Pick: Packers win, Giants cover


Playoffs: 3-1 Overall, 2-2 ATS

Cubs deal for an ace; NFL Wildcard Picks

Finally, after speculation began at the Winter meetings, the Cubs dealt for Matt Garza, trading away a bunch of prospects who I didn't know existed (which is good, because if I did, they'd probably have a ton of potential. But I suppose I could've said the same thing about the Lou Brock trade way back when, if I was alive. Apparently, the shortstop they traded was a top prospect, but we have Starlin Castro, so...

Anyway.) With this trade, the Cubs acquired a solid pitcher the staff, one that we desperately needed, and who could be an ace of the staff. Let's look at his stats last year, shall we?

32 starts, 15 wins, 10 losses, 3.91 ERA, 150 SO, 1.25 WHIP

In the AL East, playing against a great division along with the requisite games against the AL, which is a lot better than the NL talent wise. Those are good numbers. Now he's in the NL Central- a weak division- and gets to play all those lesser quality NL teams. This is a move the Cubs needed to make to even stay relevant in the division. They got their ace (or a quality 2nd or 3rd starter, depending on how you feel), responding to Milwaukee's acquisition of Zach Grienke (who's better, but still, it's a step). Pitching was a major need, and their staff was unquestionably improved by this deal.

That's your hot stove news. Onto some Playoff Football. Glorious. Saturday and Sunday Football...it's like a dream come true.

Saints (-10.5) at Seahawks

Guh, the Seahawks are in the playoffs after "winning" the NFC West after "winning" against the St.Louis Rams in a terrible game. Now they enter the playoffs under .500 facing off against the defending Super Bowl Champions. It doesn't take much to see that Seattle won't last long in the playoffs; they are pretty terrible on both sides of the ball. The Saints may not have a running game, but the Saints should be able to pass the ball effectively enough and also should be able to blitz/terrify the bajeezus out of Matt Hasselback and the anemic Seattle offense. Saints win and cover. Yes, on the road. Seattle is that bad. If the Saints lose this, then...I don't even know. My faith in humanity might be lost.

Jets at Colts (-3)

Along with Packers-Eagles, this is the hardest one to pick. The Jets have played up and down all year, and are liable to lay an egg at any moment. The Colts have been similarly inconsistent, are dragging an injured team into the playoffs, and don't have the same efficiency we've seen out of them in years past. I'm tempted to go with the Colts (out of sheer Jets hate), but I know the Jets are going to be psyched up for this game after the Colts beat them last year. It's tough to say this, but I think the Jets win outright.

Ravens (-3) at Chiefs

The Chiefs benefited from an easy schedule and a weak division (which they only went 2-4 against) in order to succeed this year. They have a good run game and a decent defense, but the rest is nothing special. Last week, they were playing the Raiders for seedings and got blown out. The Ravens were also playing for seeding and won an ugly game. Even at their worst, the Ravens were able to grind out a win in their trademark boring fashion. With that in mind, I'll take the Ravens to win and cover. They have more talent than the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are good enough to beat the bad and mediocre teams, but now they face a solid team, and that will be a bit too much for them, unless the Ravens literally bungle the game away.

Packers at Eagles (-3)

This looks to be the best game of the weekend, and also the hardest to figure. Both teams have explosive (at times) offenses, turnover oriented defenses that blitz A LOT, and hilariously terrible coaches, when it comes to clock management. The Eagles, though, have slowed down lately, seeming to struggle in the cold weather. The Packers have been on a roll lately, and their ferocious defense, I think, can contain Mike Vick. Both teams will put up points, but I have more faith that the Packers can get that one stop. So, Packers win but don't cover. Hope the sparks fly in this one.