Week 14 NFL Picks: The Wave of Apathy

Sad Fitz sums up the season thus far

Welcome to Week 14, folks, where good games go to die. There's only one game this week between teams that could be considered good- Cowboys vs Giants- and that's about it. The rest is either big mismatches or horrible teams having to play one another. Even better, the Bills continue in their five game losing streak, which is really brightening up my holiday season. So, to this week, I give a big ol' "meh." On to the picks. Last week I was 12-4 Overall and 9-7 ATS, which continues the trend of good overall, decent against the spread. Hey, it's not my money you're hypothetically spending.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5)


Here's one of the 'massive mismatch' games of the week, as the winless Colts take on the occasionally transcendent Ravens. I would usually take the Ravens to cover, but given their propensity to play down to their opponents, and the Colts spirited backdoor cover of the Patriots last week, I can't put my full weight behind the Ravens coming out and winning by at least 17. The Ravens love to make things interesting, no matter who the opponent is. Side note: With the way things are going now, I can't wait to see NFL Films Season Recap film for the 2011 Colts. The pinnacle of the season is a seven point loss to the Patriots, with swelling orchestra music behind it.
Pick: Ravens win, Colts cover


Houston at Cincinnati (-3)


Houston, without QB/WR duo Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, have managed to win football games the old fashioned way- run the ball and play great defense. Heck, even TJ Yates looked half decent last week. The Bengals have faltered a little bit now that they've started playing good teams; the offense has been exposed as limited and the defense, without CB Leon Hall, has struggled to completely contain offenses. With that in mind, I like the Texans to take this one with a steady diet of Arian Foster and a stifling D that should shut down the Bengals "Huck it to AJ Green" offense.
Pick:Texans win, cover


Oakland at Green Bay (-12)


Oakland is still without Darren McFadden, the running back that made the offense explosive, and the defense let the Dolphins destroy them last week. The Packers faced their hardest test remaining last week in a close game with the Giants, still managing to win despite Aaron Rodgers only playing merely "well" instead of his usual "ridiculous." The Raiders don't have the weapons on either side of the ball to really challenge the Packers, which means another week of effortless perfection by the Packers. They make it look so easy, don't they?
Pick: Packers win, cover


Kansas City at NY Jets (-10.5)


Tyler Palko was bad enough to get benched last week, but finagled his way back in after Kyle Orton hurt his finger. His only touchdown so far was a goofy Hail Mary last week. The rest of it has set back the art of quarterbacking 50 years or so. The Jets have their own terrible quarterback, but he has a solid running game and a good defense surrounding him, so they get by just fine.
Pick: Jets win, cover


Minnesota at Detroit (-9.5)


The Lions have barely fared better than the Bills have after their hot start, going 2-5 after a 5-0 start. Their offense has no running game at this point, and teams can shift coverage onto Calvin Johnson and effectively shut down the passing offense. On defense, the Lions are still without Ndamukong Suh (suspension) and are otherwise unimpressive on defense (Nick Fairley's made a huge difference, huh?) The Vikings aren't any better, of course, and they're still without Adrian Peterson, but all I'm saying is, I don't get the ten point spread here-the Lions aren't that good. The Lions should still win, but it will hardly be dominating.
Pick: Lions win, Vikings cover


New Orleans (-3.5) at Tennessee

The Saints have had some trouble on the road this season, especially against inferior opponents, but they seem to be on a roll right now. Drew Brees is playing absurdly well right now, the running game has kind of shown up, and the defense isn't bad enough to get them in trouble. After watching the Titans last week, I'm less than impressed- the defense isn't especially good, and the offense will have trouble keeping up with the Saints, especially if Chris Johnson can't get it going. The Saints should be able to end their road woes here, and perhaps hurt the Titans' chances at a wild card or the AFC South.
Pick: Saints win, cover


Philadelphia at Miami (-3)


Even with Michael Vick back under center for the Eagles, can you really trust the Bizarro Eagles? All season they've completely underwhelmed expectations at every turn, exposing a horrible defense (turns out hiring an offensive coordinator for the defensive coordinator job doesn't work) and an offense that seems like the playcaller doesn't want the team to score. LeSean McCoy, perhaps the best running back in the NFL this season, spends pockets of the game ignored while the offense runs another deep pass to DeSean Jackson, who doesn't even look back for the ball before it's picked off. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have spend the last four weeks just winning football games behind a solid defense and a weirdly explosive offense. I'll take that any day over the failed potential of the Eagles.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover


New England (-8) at Washington


New England keeps taking care of business: another three touchdowns for Tom Brady (all thrown to Rob Gronkowski) and a defense that's found a way to bend but not break. The Redskins are running business as usual, but only in the Bluth Company sense- completely dysfunctional. Top tight end Fred Davis, for instance, was just suspended four games for an offseason drug test that came up positive, giving a whole new meaning to the label "Offseason Champs" that the Redskins usually get. The ruthless efficiency of the Patriots should be more than enough to take down the Rex Grossman led, falling apart Redskins.
Pick: Patriots win, cover


Atlanta (-3) at Carolina


The Falcons continue to be the best boring team in the NFL, while the Panthers manage to be the worst exciting team in the league. Unfortunately for Cam Newton and all his exciting plays, the defense is basically non existent. The Falcons should be able to plod their way down the field enough times to pull out the victory here, while the Panthers will win in style points alone.
Pick: Falcons win, cover


Tampa Bay (-3) at Jacksonville


Oh God, this is not a fun game to even think about. The Jaguars have a pretty good defense that has been eroded by defense, and Blaine Gabbert seems to be regressing from week to week, probably because he doesn't have any receivers to throw to; they might as well put Air Bud out there. Tampa has a terrible defense, but the offense can be decent, provided that Josh Freeman plays. And, lucky for them, the Jaguars don't have enough on offense to challenge them (sorry, just Maurice Jones Drew is not enough). In the battle of "Not South Florida," I'll go with Tampa, but I hope I don't have to watch a second of it. (Though I would watch if the Bucs kept wearing their Creamsicle Orange jerseys)
Pick: Buccaneers win, cover


San Francisco (-4) at Arizona 


Arizona is only getting four points here because of their home field advantage, but, unlike the Cowboys, the 49ers don't have some sort of jinx in Arizona. The 49ers will do their usual 49ers thing- great defense, run the ball, and kick field goals. Arizona will counter with "Kevin Kolb just wings it for 60 minutes, hope the other team ices their own kicker, and randomly win in OT," but that's not a blueprint for long term success. Just like acquiring Kevin Kolb as your quarterback of the future.
Pick: 49ers win, cover


Chicago at Denver (-3.5)


Last week I said that Caleb Hanie was a lot better than Donovan McNabb. Oops! Caleb Hanie is awful, and the Bears have lost Matt Forte for the next couple of weeks. This leaves Chicago without an offense, basically. Now they have to face a suddenly nasty Denver Broncos defense, which won't help matters. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have this quarterback you might've heard about, and he plays well at the end of football games, and wins most of them. The Bears still have a great defense and wicked special teams, but their lack of offense will not be enough to keep up with whatever Tim Tebow is able to pull out at the end of this one.
Pick: Broncos win, cover


Buffalo at San Diego (-7)


Sigh. Last week, I ranted about how much I hated the Chargers and how they were basically the AFC version of the Eagles, and then they go out and trounce the Jaguars. The Bills continued to show their 2010 form in another "close but no cigar" loss last week to the Titans. The Chargers have far from a great defense, meaning the Bills could theoretically stick around, but the Chargers weapons on offense should be more than enough to beat a Swiss Cheese Bills defense. It feels like it will be a classic "Bills stick around and then lose in the end" game, which should mean another great Sunday for me. Hoo-ray. It's not too early to think of draft position, is it?
Pick: Chargers win, Bills cover


NY Giants at Dallas (-4)


The Giants just gave the Packers the hardest game they've played in months, while Dallas just choked away a game against the lowly Cardinals. And yet this is the spread? I'll happily take the Giants to win, then- they have a better offense and an at least equal defense to the Cowboys, and Tony Romo has infected the rest of the Cowbiys with a case of the choke-sies- even their coach. It's hard to believe, but Eli Manning has put together a top 10 (or even top 5) season this year, and that should continue against a vulnerable Cowboys defense.
Pick: Giants win, cover


St. Louis at Seattle (-10)


Remember when these two teams played for the division last season? Ha! While the Seahawks stick around in the playoff race (improbably), the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season. Now they're starting their third string quarterback, who I won't even make the effort of looking up. To add to that, they have a historically bad run defense, meaning Marshawn Lynch should be able to get all BEAST MODE against them. Oh yeah, the Seahawks are at home as well, where they have an obscene advantage. So yeah, the Seahawks should take this one pretty easily.
Picks: Seahawks win, cover


Also, I swear, at one point, I will weigh in on Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, The Bulls, Albert Pujols, the Cubs, and OH YEAH the Sabres. Once I have time.

Season:126-66 Overall, 97-91-4 ATS