Week 8 NFL Picks

What a spooooooky week of football action we have this week! Not. I hate Halloween gimmick columns, so I'm gonna stay away from that. Do love the holiday, though, because I am still five years old and love candy (especially Reese's). Anyway, it's like halfway through the season, and the teams are starting to separate into the good and bad (I'll do a column on that later), except in the NFC, where everyone is mediocre.

Denver vs San Francisco (-2) (IN LONDON)

The NFL always thinks they've scheduled a real doozy for this game, and yet, I don't think its ever turned out well. San Francisco is really, really bad, and Denver just laid an egg last week. I think Denver is pissed off and will rebound well against the 49ers, who seem to sort of be quitting on their coach. How many times can you get berated and have it still mean something? Denver covers and wins.

Jacksonville at Dallas (-6.5)

Jon Kitna takes over for Dallas, who are mow just playing for pride after Tony Romo was destroyed. That was so lovely to see. Jacksonville is pretty hopeless, and is just good enough to stay in most games but never good enough to win. I'll take Dallas to win, because even with their bad pass defense I think they can stop Garrard, but I'll take the Jags to cover. Though I'm iffy on it.

Washington at Detroit (-2.5)

Detroit is one of the most fun teams to watch. They love to chuck the ball to Calvin Johnson whenever possible so he can do awesome things (like save my fantasy team). On the other hand, I saw Washington live last week. Snooze. Detroit wins and covers.

Green Bay at NY Jets (-6.5)

The Jets, fresh off a bye, against a team that constantly shoots itself in the foot and has trouble stopping people on defense? Yeah, I'll take them to win and cover. The Jets are legit, whereas the Packers are failing to live up to the hype.

Carolina at St.Louis (-2.5)

St. Louis is another fun team to watch, mostly because of the level of play Sam Bradford has come out with. He's gonna be very good, barring injury, of course. Carolina is pretty bad,has Matt Moore starting at QB, can't get a good running game going, and almost lost to the 49ers last week. St. Louis wins and covers.

Miami (-1) at Cincinnati

Sorry, I'm not believing the Cinci hype. Not enough for the spread to be this low. Miami has a great defense, some playmakers on offense, and have only lost to some very good teams. They're gonna win and cover, and maybe show everyone that Cinci is just not that good.

Buffalo at Kansas City (-7)

As much as I'd like to say last week was a sign of things to come for the Bills, my expect the worst instincts are telling me that the Bills are going to come out and crap the bed. They just won't be able to stop the Chiefs running game. Still,I think they might be able to put up a decent amount of points, so I'll say Chiefs win but Bills cover.

Tennessee at San Diego(-5)

Tough game here, because San Diego SHOULD be really good, but have consistently found ways to lose. Whereas Tennessee hasn't looked good enough to get them favored against the Chargers. I think San Diego wakes up and wins, but the Titans cover behind some Chris Johnson wizardry.

Tampa Bay at Arizona (-3)

I like Tampa Bay. Fun, young team thats doing decently this year. The Cardinals are toiling under Max Hall, and Larry Fitzgerald is starting to die very slowly every time he's underutilized. So Tampa covers and wins.

Seattle at Oakland (-3)

Welcome to your hell game! I couldn't care less about either of these teams, and both only have playoff hopes because of their crappy divisions. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Raiders are very due for a letdown, whereas Seattle has played decently on the road. It goes against my instincts, but I'll take Seattle to cover and win. Also, Dennis Miller, a Jewish Mother, Tony Kornheiser, and Forrest Gump are doing a four person booth for this one. Welcome to your doom!


Minnesota at New England (-5.5)

Randy Moss returns, and he's probably wishing now that he wasn't such a cock, or else he'd still be on a contender. If he was anything like a normal person, that is. We'll see Brett Favre tough it out this game, and totally ham up his injury for pity points and more attention. Ugh. The Patriots have returned to their annoying winning ways in which they dink and dunk down the field and somehow manage to win. They'll beat the Vikings and cover, and continue to annoy the hell out of me.

Piitsburgh at New Orleans (-1.5)

Did anyone not see how the Saints played last week? And some of the weeks before? They're just not as consistently good as they were last season. Pittsburgh is a juggernaut right now, even if they had to get extremely lucky last week. Pittsburgh is a top 3 team in the league, maybe THE top team, so its not hard for me to say they'll win and cover.

Houston at Indianapolis (-5.5)

Indianapolis is going to be out for blood this game. I don't think they're gonna let Arian Foster sneak up on them this time. Plus they're at home, on Monday Night. Peyton always elevates his game on Monday Night. Plus, they need to show that they're still the kings of the AFC South. All signs point towards Indy winning and covering.

NFL Week 7, A Return to Depressive-ness, sort of

And by sort of, I mean I get to go the Bears game Sunday, at 'beautiful' Soldier Field, and ignore the Bills getting abused by the Ravens. Bear Down? On to the picks. I had a good weekend last week. I think. Whatever.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami

Big Ben is back, really, and still unleashing miraculous throws while halfway to the ground. His balance is amazing. The Dolphins have been merely good this season, beating some other good teams but also faltering. I see the Steelers, one of the great teams this year, winning and covering on the road.

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-3.5)

Two of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL face off. Once again, Carson Palmer has yet to prove to anyone that he's a bonafide top 10 quarterback in this league. I say Atlanta takes it at home, but Cinci covers with some gnarly defense and a whole lotta Cedric Benson. I hope (fantasy wise...)

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)

Jacksonville finds themselves with Todd Bouman at quarterback, who was literally picked up this week. Yeah, I'll take the Chiefs to win and cover at Arrowhead against a QB who's learning the system.

Philadelphia at Tennessee (-3)

The Titans won a pretty ugly game last week, and I remain confused about how good they really are. On the flipside, Kevin Kolb and the Eagles lit it up last week against a good Atlanta team. I'll take Philly to win, or at least cover.

Washington at Chicago(-3)

This is the game I'm going to! And a doozy at that. Chicago has a militantly bad offensive line; I don't know how Jay Cutler hasn't murdered his tackle yet. The Redskins are, to borrow a term, whelming. Not over or under. I still think they keep it close and cover the spread while the Bears win on some special teams or defensive play.

Cleveland at New Orleans (-13)

The Saints finally took an advil and woke up from their Super Bowl hangover, putting a licking on the Bucs. Cleveland played decently against Pittsburgh with a rookie in his debut start. I think New Orleans has another big game in them, and they win and cover. But its not too hard for me to see Cleveland cover. Call me shaky.

Buffalo at Baltimore (-13)

Call me not shaky. The Bills have absolutely no shot in this game. I'd be surprised if they kept it within 21. Ravens win and cover while Ray Rice goes roughshod over the whole defense. Oh yeah, free CJ Spiller! Cmon Chan!

San Francisco (-3) at Carolina

Here's your hell game. Euch. I could not be less interested in either of these teams. Both have pretty terrible quarterbacks. Both just seem to be going nowhere this season. I'll take Carolina to cover against the crappiness of Alex Smith. And this game is being shown with the audio of the best game of the weekend, so you know something awesome is happening on another channel that you just can't switch to. This is all in hell, of course.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay(-3)

Two exciting, wholly decent teams face off. I like Sam Bradford, I like Josh Freeman. I think it'll be a fun one, and I see St. Louis continuing to be plucky and covering while the Bucs end up winning. Look for a high score.

Arizona at Seattle (-7)

Seattle managed to play well on the road last week against the Bears, so I feel like they could play really good at home against a rookie QB. The Pete Carrol era: AN ADVENTURE IN SEATTLE! Seattle wins and covers. Sorry Max Hall, you crazy Mormon you.

New England at San Diego (-2.5)

Sorry, I trust San Diego's depleted roster as much as I trust my friends if I passed out at a party (only from being tired, of course). San Diego is just a mess, while the Patriots are starting to revert back to the mid 2000s, non-flashy style of play that got them three super bowls. New England wins outright.

Oakland at Denver (-7.5)

Kyle Orton will throw the ball, there will be a lot of points for the Broncos, and the defense will be stout enough to limit the Raiders 'high powered' attack. Broncos win and cover.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5)

Green Bay is so aggressive on defense that they are constantly getting flagged; it's like the players have a quota in their contracts to fill, that's how dumb they are. Brett Favre is going to show up in this game, I have a feeling, and Green Bay will keep falling apart. Vikings win and cover.

NY Giants at Dallas (-3)

Dallas enters "must win" mode, and I die of enjoyment at seeing them continue to suffer. America's Team, my ass. Dallas is overhyped and has a weak running game and general playcalling. Giants are going to win, and maybe fatty Wade Phillips will get fired.

BCS Ridiculousness

Sure, this happened last Sunday, and yet I'm still stewing over it. When the BCS Standings were released last Sunday, I was shocked. ESPN Projections had called for Boise State to be in first, Oregon second, and the current #1 Ohio State at fifth. Well, Ohio State lost, and I was very ready to see Oregon and Boise State atop the polls. And yet, Oklahoma becomes #1 in the BCS polls, ALL from the computers, as they are not ranked #1 in either the AP or coaches poll, the other 2/3rds of the equation. And I was even more surprised that the mainstream media took this news so easily. Oklahoma at #1? Why? They all seemed to be okay with this, saying it had been because of their 'tough early season schedule'. Are you kidding me? This team beat Utah State (!) by seven, Cincinnati by 2 (!) and a decent Texas team by eight. Their other wins came against even worse opponents. I fail to see how that schedule is any better than Oregon, who has beat a top ten team (at the time) in Stanford, or Boise St, which beat Virginia Tech AND Oregon State, two quality teams. No, Oklahoma is number one because of the ridiculousness of a system that was created to try and end the arguments over who should be the national champion. The computer systems that create the BCS formula are not even supported by the statisticians who run the computers (as this New York Times story shows). One ranker, in fact, uses LAST SEASON'S RANKINGS as a factor in his computations. Because Alabama finished #1 in last years poll, they have an advantage over plenty of other teams. Same with Florida.

I hate to sound like some wackjob conspiracy theorist, but the system is broken and slides heavily in the favor of the conferences that created it. The BCS guarantees that major conference teams will always be seen as the best and play for the championship, shutting out non AQs like Boise State and TCU. The media, particularly those who broadcast the games, agree to the major conference bias because they know they will get more money from Oklahoma being in the title game rather than Boise State. So yeah, Oklahoma is the #1 team according to a system designed to have Oklahoma and another big money NCAA team play for the championship, at the expense of good football.

So now all I have to hope for is that Oklahoma loses. And most major teams lose or lose again (I'm looking at you Alabama). Maybe if the BCS becomes trapped in a situation where all it can spit out is Boise State vs. Oregon or Boise State vs. TCU, it might make all the big wigs crap their pants enough to inspire real change in the system. If their very system is corrupted from the inside, they might just have to change it in order to keep the money rolling in. Somehow these people don't realize that a playoff system would a)increase interest in the college football postseason and b)make tons of money. Imagine if at the end of the year, eight teams were selected by a committee not unlike the NCAA basketball tournament (with major conference champions-ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Pac-10,and Big East plus two "at large teams"), seeded, and thus a three or four week bonanza begins. It would be March Madness in December. And March Madness is one of the most popular and money making operations in sports. To keep the Bowls happy, the games can be played at their stadiums- you could have a "Fiesta Bowl regional", "Sugar Bowl regional", etc. Then, the fans are happy because we see more football between the best teams, and we see who the true champion is. Hell, maybe to appease the Rose Bowl, their regional could always feature the Pac 10 and Big 10.

Sure, some deserving teams would be left out, but isn't that a reality of the NCAA basketball tournament? Or make it 16, and add an extra week. Either way, a playoff system could only help NCAA Football, instead of angering fans when the BCS invariably screws over someone.

I Guess I'll Write About the NBA

Of the four "major" sports (major because hockey has lost its foothold), the NBA is my least favorite to watch. I care about it as much as the players do throughout most of the season, which is not much. And that's the main issue. The season is 82 games, and the players don't really start caring till maybe the last month, or so it seems. The league has wildly disparate teams talent wise- out of thirty teams, I count about six or seven title contenders, and within that group, some are barely contenders. Over a whole season, it turns into the big dogs winning a lot, solidifying their spots, while some crappy teams in the East luck into a playoff spot, and some team in the West gets shafted. Either way, there's no excitement through the season. Also, the games aren't very exciting, as the players don't really put up an effort until the last two minutes for most of the season. I do enjoy playing NBA 2k11, but the game is not quite like the real game.

I do, though, enjoy watching the best players for a little. Seeing LeBron, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo and Kobe play is a lot of fun when they decide to turn it on for a little bit. Basically, I'm a light weight NBA fan. I like the amazing moments and the stars, but going deeper, meh.

But on to the season. The huge free agent summer has passed, and now the season has to match the hype. The Heat come in as the biggest story in the NBA, with their new super team. Then there's the rest of the East, which features the last stand Celtics (aka The Old Heat), the Magic, and the new and improved Bulls, even though Boozer was dumb enough to break his hand. In the West, the Lakers go for three in a row, the Thunder try and unseat them with their young, awesome team, Chris Paul carrying the Hornets, Dirk carrying the Mavericks, the Nuggets trying to appease Carmelo, the Jazz being their usual consistent self, and Steve Nash running on his last legs in Phoenix. These are all interesting subplots, but they all play out over such a long time, that I can't be interested in it until the playoffs.

Finally, a note about the whole LeBron James deal. The whole backlash comes from our expectations of what The Best Player in Basketball should be, ever since Michael Jordan. Jordan didn't win a championship for the first seven years of his career, yet he never was so self absorbed (or more media conscious) to create a huge stink over his own free agency, and build it up so much that he would end up disappointing a large amount of people. Jordan stuck with his team, let them build around him (Scottie Pippen anyone?), and willed his team to victory. He would not allow himself to appear as if he had given up and taken the easy way out. He's seen as such a heroic figure because he stuck with one team and made them into champions, along with some help from the front office. LeBron got some help from his front office in Cleveland, who honestly tried the last couple of years (and haven't been lucky to get a Pippen-like player). The idea that society now has about a sports hero is one who goes through adversity and eventually comes out on top out of sheer will. LeBron, by going to a Super-Team, appears to have taken the easy way out. It may win him some championships, but he will always have that "yeah, but he was playing with another top 5 guy (Wade) AND a great low post player (Bosh).

No one finds James' new decision heroic in the traditional sense. He's betrayed his original team and took the easiest path to the championship. And not many, besides Heat fans, find that at all heroic. He's now just a special player surrounded by more special players. He's going to coast to the playoffs and then might be tested a little, but nothing like Jordan. He's not living up to our expectations. Somehow all this escaped him. It'll be the most interesting plot of the season to see how public reaction changes, if it does at all.

Week 6 NFL Picks, AKA The Week of Football I Actually Enjoy

And why is that? Because the Bills are on a bye!!! I am going to park myself on the couch and watch RedZone all day, get a Redzone-r (say it out loud), and watch good football without having aneurysm watching the Bills screw up again. It will be glorious. Also, I got this picks in before Sunday! BEAST MODE. (Oh yes, I miss Marshawn Lynch very much)

San Diego (-8.5) at St.Louis

The Rams were cute with their first back to back wins in about two years, and then they went and laid an egg against the Lions. Speaking of laying an egg, that's exactly what the Chargers did last week against the Raiders, leading some kid to cry, a lot. Still, I can't see the Chargers losing this one, but I'll take the points and say the Rams cover while the Chargers win.

Kansas City at Houston (-4.5)

Hard to figure this one. Houston crapped the bed last week, getting rocked by the Giants. While good for my fantasy matchup, it wasn't a great idea to stop giving Arian Foster the ball, even when they were down. Kansas City kept it close against the Colts, never letting them get too far ahead and limiting Peyton Manning. The Chiefs are pretty good against the run and decent against the pass, so I think they can keep it close if they get some pressure on Matt Schaub. I'll take them to cover, but the Texans to win. But its shaky.

Baltimore at New England (-2.5)

Another tough one, and possibly the best game of the week. We get to see the Patriots without Randy Moss and the Ravens try to find some consistency on offense, as it has been bits and pieces this season. I think the Patriots Defense is not going to be able to contain the myriad weapons the Ravens possess, and the Ravens upset the Patriots.

New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay

New Orleans got beat by ARIZONA and a rookie quarterback just last week, while Tampa is coming off an emotional win over the Bengals. Something's off with the Saints. I think they'll get back their mojo, but I'm not sure when. But I think Tampa covers and wins. Week 5 was upset week, so now I'm probably overcompensating, but the Bucs are kinda good.

Atlanta at Philadelphia(-2.5)

This game would be so much better with Mike Vick squaring off against his old team, but instead we get...Kevin Kolb. Kolb has been by no means impressive, but the Eagles have managed with a strong running game with LeSean McCoy, almost unheard of in an Andy Reid system. Atlanta's got a good offense and a pretty good offense, so even on the road I think they beat the Iggles.

Detroit at NY Giants (-10)

That is a hiiiiigh spread there. The Lions simply put up points, but it will be interesting to see how they face off against the number one defense in the league. The Giants have been riding an overwhelming pass rush to two straight victories, and I think they'll keep going here, but the Lions will cover.

Seattle at Chicago (-6)

Is Seattle away from home? Easy. They'll lose. Bears get Cutler back, the defense will play well, they'll win and cover. Never ever trust the Seahawks away from home.

Miami at Green Bay (-3)

Another good game! The Pakcers have been just a bit underwhelming so far and have failed to live up to expectations, while the Dolphins are coming off a bye. The Dolphins are fighting in a tough AFC East division and will make this one close, and will win if Aaron Rodgers sits. If he's in, I think Green Bay wins but Miami covers.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)

Cleveland comes into Big Ben's first game back with a rookie quarterback who almost got cut in the preseason and an injured starting running back. Big Ben is probably salivating (well, more than usual) at the prospect of having this as his first game back. The Steelers will shut down Colt McCoy and harass him, and their offense will get it done in a big way. Steelers win and cover.

NY Jets (-3.5) at Denver

Kyle Orton and the Broncos simply chuck the ball up (usually to Brandon Lloyd) and score some points. I'm not sure how they'll fair against the Jets D. The Broncos are bad against the run, and the Jets looooove to run. So the Jets will control the ball, take some shots deep, and shut down the Broncos. Jets win and cover.

Oakland at San Francisco (-7)

Now THIS is your hell game. Two bad, West Coast teams. I think San Francisco will win, but not cover. The Raiders did, after all, beat the Chargers. In hell, this game is on every screen, and there's a little Picture in Picture box of the Red Zone channel, and you can see that it's the Red Zone, but not what's happening. Also, two pretentious rich people are manning the booth, who don't quite understand football, like what you might see in a luxury box.

Dallas at Minnesota (-1.5)

The two most overhyped/underwhelming teams of the season finally get to face off, and we are lucky enough to either see Brett Favre lose or the Cowboys lose. Besides his game ending pick-six (who didn't see that coming), Brett Favre woke up in the second half of last weeks game. I think the Vikings win and cover, with a big game from Adrian Peterson. He is playing me in fantasy after all.

Indianapolis (-3) at Washington

NBC is marketing this one as "ALL BUSINESS" (as it's not the Manning bowl or the McNabb returns to Philly game), which is pretty idiotic. This is one of the least interesting games, as I can summon no excitement for seeing Washington play. I'll be watching Mad Men as Indianapolis wins and covers.

Tennessee (-3) at Jaguars

Wooooooooo! Monday Night in JACKSONVILLE (My Jaguars fan friend is going buck wild)! Well, meh. The Titans did well for themselves last week in beating the Cowboys and showed a good commitment to getting Chris Johnson the ball frequently, whereas the Jags beat up on the Bills, who are still learning the fundamentals of defense (Cover the receivers! How novel). Titans win and cover.

Sabres can't score

With NHL Center Ice, I've been able to watch more Sabres games than ever, and it's awesome to even be able to watch. BUT, the Sabres have been playing really badly to start the year. They can muster no offense, especially not on the power play. This has been an issue since about 2006, and yet the team has found no way to fix it. Every player tries to do some dipsy doodle fancy play to get on Sportscenter, and it never works. They could just focus on doing it right, but instead they get all fancy and mess up. This basically applies to our regular offense as well. Miller and the defense are playing well, though, besides bad showings against the Rangers and Blackhawks. The Sabres can't expect to have Miller be on fire every night- they need to support him. If the team can muster up some kind of offensive effort, they'd be dangerous. But right now, they're just a scrappy team that will win a lot of 2-1, 1-0, overtime/shootout wins.

P.S. Tyler Ennis is really good, thankfully.

The Bills March Towards Infamy

I cannot stand this anymore. The Bills had a winnable game and completely pissed it away this week against the Jaguars. I swear to God we have someone with no knowledge of the NFL as our defensive coordinator. Isn't it common sense TO GUARD THE NUMBER ONE RECEIVER ON THE OTHER TEAM? No, instead, George Edwards (I had to look up his name we've heard so little about this guy), calls plays that leave Mike Sims-Walker WIDE open at all times, or covered by a linebacker. Also, covering the tight end in the red zone is usually a good idea, but instead we have him covered with a lineman or having our DB's get absolutely burned. Leodis McKelvin, a top 15 draft pick at corner back, is terrible. The guy shouldn't even exist he's been burnt so much. And our new 3-4 defense, which has none of the right personnel, can't get a semblance of a rush on the quarterback. For god's sake, we made David Garrard and the Jaguars look like a semi-good team.

The offense looked okay again, but they were killed, as I have become accustomed to, by bad penalties. The Bills had the ball in the red zone three times in THE FIRST QUARTER and managed one touchdown, because there were dumb holding penalties the other two times. So instead of going up 21-3, we went up 13-3 and then promptly lost that lead. And I could tell from about the second quarter that that was going to happen. Thank god there is a bye week this week so I don't have to watch this wreck. Looking at the schedule, the Bills don't play a winnable game until the Lions game (and that's barely winnable), and then the Browns game, and the Bills lost to them 6-0 or 6-3 to them last year. I know this is hard to believe, but I can see this team going 0-16. I know it's hard to not win ONE game, but this team has just the right amount of ineptitude to do it.

Also, free CJ Spiller! Can we please just hand off to this guy 30 times a day and see what happens?

Another Rushed NFL Picks, Week 5

Sorry about the inactivity, but I was studying for the SAT. Cut me some slack here. You can punch my ticket to Oxford now.

On to the picks. Scott Van Pelt said that after Week 4, he knows less than he did at the beginning of the season, except that the Bills are terrible. Can't say I disagree.

Denver at Baltimore (-8)

The Baltimore Defense showed up last week and the offense did just enough to win against a very good Steelers team. The Broncos have a pretty pass happy offense, and I think the Ravens should be able to shut them down, leaving the Broncos struggling. Baltimore wins and covers.

Jacksonville at Buffalo (-2.5)

The Bills are the worst team in football. Jacksonville shocked the Colts last week. And yet, I think the Bills get the win. They are desperate. The Jaguars are due for a let down, and have a bad defense. Fitzpatrick is gonna LIGHT THEM UP! They'll cover, too. But really, I am terrified that they'll lose. It's a very definite possibility. And this is also very possibly the hell game, where Gus Johnson is announcing on sedatives while Chris Collinsworth is on speed.

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-7.5)

If you saw Peyton Manning's face after the Jaguars beat them on a 59 yard field goal, you knew the Colts would win next week. Indianapolis is going to try and show that they are not dead yet. The Chiefs are a feel good story, but they can't play with a really pissed off Colts team. They'll cover but the Colts win.

St. Louis at Detroit (-3)

The two worst teams the past two years, this game might become an entertaining shoot out. I like Detroit to get their first win because they have been playing teams close. Also, this would be the hell game, but I see there being a lot of scoring, a la the game with the Lions and Browns last year. Detroit wins and covers.

Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland

Atlanta scraped out a win against the 49ers last weekend, and they'll win another close one this week against a not so terrible Browns team. Atlanta wins and covers, but Cleveland keeps it within a touchdown. PEYTON HILLIS!! THE GREAT WHITE HOPE!

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-6.5)

Cinci is O-VER-RATED at this point, with Carson Palmer not having shown me any flashes of being "the guy" at quarterback. Tampa Bay is 3-1, with their loss coming to the tough Steelers, and their coming off a bye week. Cinci wins but Tampa covers.

Chicago at Carolina (-3)

I think the Bears win even without Jay Cutler. Sorry, Jimmy Clausen. The Panthers are pretty bad, the Bears defense should be able to shut down whatever Carolina can muster and Todd Collins can engineer just enough points, or the Bears will score on Defense or Special Teams. Bears cover and win, re energizing all the Bears fans who were shut up this week.

Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington

The Packers keep getting by without a good running game, by passing the ball and playing solid defense. I think Donovan McNabb won't be able to get much going for the Redskins and the Packers will be able to score. Packers win and cover.

NY Giants at Houston (-3)

The Giants beat up on the Bear's week offensive line last Sunday Night, but it wasn't like they dominated on the offensive end. Houston has a nice balanced offense now, and should be able to move the ball against the Giants D, providing that Matt Schaub gets protection. Houston wins and covers.

New Orleans (-7) at Arizona

Who is Max Hall? Oh, The BYU Guy!!! This undrafted rookie is making his debut. The Saints love to blitz. This is just not a good combination. I think the Saints can put it together this week against a week opponent. The Saints win and cover.

San Diego (-7) at Oakland

San Diego continues to perplex, but they are close to home and a still terrible Raiders team. So I think the Chargers win and cover. Look for Philip Rivers to have another big floaty day.

Tennessee at Dallas (-7)

7 Points!? Did we forget that Dallas has looked bad for most of the season and the Titans are a talented team? I think Tennessee covers and Dallas wins. I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans won though.

Philadelphia at San Francisco (-3)

Philadelphia is not that bad, and I think Kevin Kolb has the ability to play well (he also better, as he is starting this week for me). The 49ers are a dysfunctional team crumbling under pre season pressure. Philly covers and wins as underdogs. They're desperate too.

NY Jets (-4.5) at Minnesota

Brett Favre, penis photos on the internet and with just arrived Randy Moss, will still not play well against his old team. Minnesota lost all their steam from last year, and the Jets are playing good football (even if they use trash talk as some kind of excuse to beat up on the Bills). Jets win and cover. Don't discount Favre from having a game like the one after his Dad died, but this game will be known as the Penis Game if he plays well and Minny wins.

Last Minute Week 4 NFL Picks

Week 4, here we go. The first of the bye weeks, so, the slate isn't all that great.

Denver at Tennessee (-6.5)

I don't trust the Titans quite enough to definitively say they're gonna win this game by more than the spread. If Chris Johnson isn't playing at a high level, the Titans have trouble moving the ball. Still, today they face the Broncos, who have a potent passing offense. They simply keep chucking it. I think they stay in the game and cover the spread, but the Titans win.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Probably the game of the day, this one is sure to be hard hitting. The Ravens offense has shown some potency, but have also been very inconsistent (Flacco's 4 pick performance comes to mind). The Steelers, even without Big Ben, have been phenomenal and have built up a lot of Super Bowl hype. I think the Ravens will struggle against the Steelers fearsome defense, the Steelers will score enough to win and cover.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Cleveland

The battle for Ohio! Cinci still can't quite move the ball as well as they'd like, but the defense holds and they can score as much as they need to win. Cleveland is still Cleveland. Not impressive. Since LeBron left, this city has become oh so Buffal-ish. The two sides of the Erie, united by depression. The Bengals win and cover (why is this spread so low?).

Detroit at Green Bay (-15)

File this one under uninteresting division matchups. The Packers will be angry after they let the game last week slip away from them, and take it out on the Lions. The Lions aren't 0-16 bad, so I think they cover this really big spread. But Packers win comfortably.

Carolina at New Orleans (-13)

New Orleans has not looked nearly as good as last year, but were only a shanked field goal from winning last week. Jimmy Clausen and Carolina look terrible. I think the Saints take this one, but Carolina covers. What can I say, 13 is a big spread for a Saints team that has played merely ok.

San Francisco at Atlanta (-7)

Snooze. San Francisco, despite what I thought last week, is in a world of trouble. Atlanta looked very solid against a team that beat the 49ers while not even playing their best (the Saints). Atlanta wins and covers. Mike Singletary...YOU ARE ON THE HOT SEAT

Seattle (-2) at St. Louis

But this, this, this is really the hell game. Not a surprise it comes from the NFC West. The Seahawks are TERRIBLE on the road, so I'm actually gonna pick the Rams to win this one. Sam Bradford didn't look so bad last week, as the whole team also didn't look so bad in beating the Redskins. Oh yeah, Joe Buck is announcing with Tim McCarver and Tony Siragusa, and The Dark Lord is also making you watch him play Madden.

NY Jets (-6) at Buffalo

The Jets looked really good in beating the Dolphins last Monday (with some luck), and Buffalo looked improved playing against the Patriots. The spread here is too low, though, so I'll pretty confidently take the Jets to win and cover. The Bills- how many running backs does it take to win a game!?

Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars haven't been playing well, with no offense to speak of, really. TRENT EDWARDS COULD FIX THAT!!! But not yet. Indianapolis has recovered well after their week 1 blip against the Texans. They'll win easily and cover.

Houston (-3) at Oakland

Here's a spread that makes no sense. The Raiders are still one of the worst teams in football, and even the Andre Johsnon-less Texans will be able to trample the Raiders. Look for Arian Foster to have a big game, as Houston wins and covers.

Arizona at San Diego (-9.5)

San Diego has been an enigma, losing games that their regular season champion style selves would win. Arizona is lost in the desert, though. Bad Quarterback, no longer an explosive offense (sorry Larry Fitzgerald), and a defense that is nothing special. San Diego wins, but Arizona manages to cover. The Chargers will allow that in their soft style of play so far.

Washington at Philadelphia (-5)

McNabb returns to Philadelphia, where, inexplicably, he was never really loved, despite leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl and a bunch of NFC Championship games. Now he's in Washington, and...they're not that good. Vick has been lighting it up with Philly, and he'll continue. Kevin Kolb will continue to feel really awkward. Eagles win and cover.

Chicago at NY Giants (-3.5)

WHY ARE THE GIANTS FAVORED? They have been overwhelmingly decent. I don't care if they're desperate. They just have not played well. The Bears are brimming with confidence and seem to be on a roll. If that continues throughout the season remains to be seen, but I think the Bears will win, or at least, if they really screw up, cover.

New England (-1) at Miami

Another exciting game, but I have to wonder at the spread. The Dolphins played pretty well against the Jets, unlike the Patriots. The Patriots just slipped by the BILLS last week and have a terrible, terrible defense. Chad Henne of all people should be able to light them up, and I think the Dolphins win. The Dolphins defense will not be as porous as the Bill's, so the Patriots won't be able to put up as many points as last week, and the Dolphins will be able to put up some points.