After 7 excruciatingly long months, where the draft was the best football related event, the NFL is finally back to playing games. And now I feel like previewing those!
Vikings at Saints
The Saints begin their Super Bowl defense in a rematch of the NFC Championship game from last year, a thriller in which Brett Favre predictably threw another game ending interception in overtime. Since these two teams finished in the top 8 teams (i.e. were conference finalists), the collective bargaining agreement prevented either team from making any major free agent acquisitions. Not like the Saints really needed anyone. Frankly, the Saints return Drew Brees and pretty much everyone from their overpowering offense (except, I guess, Mike Bell?) and their ballhawking defense (according to Peter King, Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams showed his players videos of animals attacking their pray, hoping his players would emulate that in attacking the Quarterback. Now that's awesome), and that should be enough for another successful season. The Vikings, however, might need some help shoring up the pass defense (not great without Antoine Winfield) and other defensive holes. There's also some question marks on the offense, as Brett Favre seems to have a lingering ankle injury, Sidney Rice is out for at least half the season, and Percy Harvin is all whacked out with migraines. With all that taken in, I think the Saints will come out strong at home and keep on rolling. They'll win and cover the spread as 5.5 point favorites. Not that the Vikings will look bad, but they need some time to jell.
Panthers at Giants
The Giants come off a disappointing season two years removed from their amazing Super Bowl victory (and a playoff appearance the year before). The main issues plauging that team were the poor defense (especially pass defense) and merely decent running game. Eli Manning is simply not on his brother, or Brees', or Bradys' level where he can carry a game with only his play. Eli needs a pretty good running game. In response, the Giants brought in Antrel Rolle to shore up the pass defense and have put Ahmad Bradshaw, more of a game breaker at running back than Brandon Jacobs, into a bigger role. Meanwhile, the Panthers got rid of most of what most people remember about the Panthers- Jake Delhomme and Julius Peppers. Now the focus of the team is mostly on the running back duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart, while Matt Moore takes over QB duties full time while Jimmy Clausen breathes down his back. To be honest, I don't see Carolina being anything better than 7-9 or 8-8, while I do see the Giants contending in the NFC East. I can see the Giants winning this one by about ten, and in that case covering the spread as 6.5 point favorites.
Miami at Buffalo
Ohhhhhhhh boy. Here's the gem of a game I'll be watching on Sunday. My Buffalo Bills face off against their biggest rival, the Miami Dolphins. At the Ralph. As a Bills fan, even in a rivalry game, I think the spread (Miami -3) is too low. As much as I hate to say it, the Bills would be lucky to be 6-10 or 7-9 this year. The defense is overrated against the pass (teams always had leads late and would run the ball instead of pass, so the numbers are flawed. Plus, Jairus Byrd isn't playing), and atrocious vs. the run. New coach Chan Gailey's new 3-4 system is mismatched for Buffalo's personnel at this point. On offense, the Bills still have Captain Checkdown Trent Edwards at Quarterback and only one good wide receiver, Lee Evans. One of the only things to be excited about is the three headed monster at RB, with rookie CJ Spiller, the fastest football player I have ever seen and some amazing moves, going along with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch (my favorite, most gangster football player of all time). Still, prospects are bleak. The best most people can say is that the team will be exciting with Chan Gailey calling the plays and CJ Spiller running the ball. Not good, but entertaining at least! As for the Dolphins, I think the addition of Brandon Marshall will greatly improve this team. Now they have a legitimate passing threat to go along with the wildcat. The defense is pretty good as well (i.e. I hate the Dolphins and have a hard time complimenting them specifically). It really comes down to how good Chad Henne is, but Brandon Marshall made Kyle Orton look pretty good in Denver. Anyway, I hope the Bills cover the spread or win, but I say the Dolphins should win by 13 points or so.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
This is one of the most intriguing games of the first weekend. Atlanta has become a sexy pick for a Super Bowl contender, while Pittsburgh is caught in a flux after a decent, non-playoff season last year. For Pittsburgh, it will be interesting to see how Dennis Dixon steps into the starter role for the first of his four games, and how the team responds to Peter King's pick of them as Super Bowl champions. Oh wait, just kidding, Peter King picked that on a "gut feeling" and is full of crap! Otherwise, Pittsburgh's defense is slightly overrated. As for Atlanta, I don't quite believe the hype. Matt Ryan was pretty mediocre last season, as with Michael Turner, and the defense is nothing to write home about. So really, this game features a lot of questions that could be solved in this first game. Eh, I'll pull a Peter King and go with my gut (on a much smaller scale) and take the Steelers in an upset, or at least to cover the 2.5 point spread.
Detroit at Chicago
Since I live in Chicago, I will not escape the build up to this game, even though it is one of the least interesting games of the week. (DA BEARS BEGIN THEIR MARCH TO ANOTHER SUPER BOWL!!!, so sez Chicago fans) The Bears spent a ton of money this offseason on Julius Peppers to shore up the defense, and brought in Mike Martz, the genius of 11 years ago, to ignite the offense, which last year, under Ron Turner, was often stagnant. Jay Cutler, the supposed savior of Chicago, was a huge disappointment last year, leading the league in interceptions and sulky faces. Matt Forte also blew hard last year, pretty much ruining my fantasy team. Asshole. The Bears still don't have any wide recievers (Bears fans have a weird boner over Devin Aromashadu, a third string wide out). And the defense is merely decent, Peppers or not. In their tough division, they will probably go like 7-9. Meanwhile, the Lions are slowing building after their disastrous 0-16 season a couple years back with shrewd draft picks. I think Matthew Stafford is good and he has a big weapon in Calvin Johnson. The defense has the rookie Suh (not even gonna try the first name) and EJ Henderson, but thats about it. They still have some work to do. Still, they're not atrocious. They'll just miss out on covering a 6.5 point spread against the Bears.
Cincinnati at New England
The Patriots are basically those same old Patriots, the emphasis now on "old". This is still a good team, but nothing like the dominating teams of the mid 2000s. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady (a good quarterback), there's still a weird committee of running backs, and they'll have a good offense. On defense, they're pretty banged up on the D-line and weren't great against the pass last year. Also, Randy Moss is already sulking and discontent. I'm sure they'll contend for the AFC East, but it won't be easy. As for Cincinnati, they need to prove that last season was no fluke. Now that T.O. is on the team, along with talented rookie tight end Jermaine Gresham, QB Carson Palmer should have more weapons to throw to and hopefully spur what was a run focused, stagnant offense. Their stingy defense remains from last year. Cedric Benson needs to follow up on his unexpected breakout season to keep the offense balanced. So this is an interesting game, just to see how good the Bengals still are and how the Patriots are holding up. I'll take the Patriots to win by 3, so the Bengals cover the spread.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Sorry, did I say Bears-Lions was the least interesting game of the week? I must've been mistaken. This is the worst. The Browns brought in Jake Delhomme as their new QB, so you know things are bad. There is nothing distinctive about this team. Similarly, the Bucs have the same deal. In hell, this game is showing on every TV and Tony Kornheiser is announcing it solo! Anyway, I guess I think the Browns are in a slightly more stable position than the Bucs (I really don't know why), so I'll pick them to win in the upset, or at least cover that 3 point spread.
Denver at Jacksonville
I'm mildly intrigued by this game, not because I think either team will be anything special, but just to see how these teams look. Denver has lost Brandon Marshall to free agency, Elvis Dumervil to injury, and damn good defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, and I don't buy the hype on Josh McDaniels as some boy genius. Jacksonville is a few years removed from being a pretty good team- they have a great running back, an up and comer at WR with Mike Sims-Walker and David Garrard has shown flashes of being a more than competent quarterback. The defense was not great last year, but seem decent enough to stay in games and make some stops. So I'll take the Jaguars to win by more than a field goal, covering the spread.
Indianapolis at Houston
Houston has become everyone's sleeper pick for the playoffs, as they have been for maybe the last 3 years. The defense still doesn't impress me. Still, the offense is very, very explosive, even with only a decent running back in Arian Foster. The Colts are still, year after year, very good. Peyton Manning was fantastic last season (until the 2nd half of the Super Bowl) and seems flustered by almost anything. Their defense is also less than impressive, but still better than the Texans and, with Peyton Manning, they don't have to be that good. I think the spread on this game is wildly low (Colts as 2 point favorites) even with Indy on the road (I'm sure the Texans have a huge home field advantage...not). I'll take the Colts to win by at least a TD.
Oakland at Tennessee
Oakland is another sexy sleeper to be better than awful this year, and there's one I just can't believe. Just because they replaced JaMarcus Sizzyrup Russell with Jason Perfect Average Campbell, does not mean they will win more games. People bring up the fact that they beat something like 4 or 5 teams with winning records. Here's an explanation- those teams played down for a week and weren't expecting the Raiders to be halfway decent. They can't be surprising too many people this year. The Titans were scorching down the stretch last year after a disastrous start to last year and will look to keep that going. With CJ2K and Vince Young, they have an exciting offense (albeit one without a great wide out). On defense, they can be iffy, but they are usually very good. I see them winning this one and covering the 6.5 spread.
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Green Bay is yet another hot pick for a Super Bowl contender, and this is one pick I can believe. Aaron Rodgers is very, very good, and has become an elite QB. He has good receivers and a solid running back in Ryan Grant. The defense is improving by the year, and creates plenty of turnovers (similar to Philadelphia's). Philly, meanwhile, has pulled a Green Bay-ish move by jettisoning Donovan McNabb and putting in Kevin Kolb at QB. He's unproven and hasn't looked good in the preseason (if that matters.... Trent Edwards has looked great!). Still, the offense is full of weapons, and the Defense can create points. Still, I like the Packers in a close game. The Eagles will cover the 3 point spread.
San Francisco at Seattle
Now that Arizona has lost Kurt Warner and likely won't be great, the NFC West is wide open. Most of the experts have pegged the 49ers as the most likely successors of kings of the NFLs weakest division. They have a stingy defense and some weapons on Offense. The major problem I have is Alex Smith at QB. He hasn't shown much of anything yet. They should be good enough to scrape through to a division title. Seattle, however, still seems like a pretty crappy team, even with Pete Carroll as coach. The offense has very few weapons and a not great offensive line. The defense is just as decent. I'll take San Fran to win and cover that spread of 3.
Arizona at St. Louis
Continuing on with the worst division in football, the NFC West, Arizona takes on St.Louis. Poor Larry Fitzgerald. I can't see him being as dominant with Derek Anderson at QB. In fact, this whole offense will probably be pretty decent without Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. The defense will once again make some plays, but will be nothing special. Still, it should be enough to better the Rams. Sam Bradford has a lot of potential and should be fun to watch, but has not a lot around him, save Stephen Jackson, who just keeps chugging. And the defense will be real bad. So the Cardinals will win and cover.
Dallas at Washington
Dallas is overhyped, once again, so I don't want to spend more time talking about them. They have pretty good offense and defense (NOT SUPER BOWL WINNING QUALITY). Tony Romo puts up big stats in most games, but will throw up a stinker pretty often. Washington has Donovan McNabb but no running game, decent receivers, and an ok defense. When London Fletcher is the anchor of your defense, its not the best sign. The Cowboys will probably roll in this game and get every annoying person to talk them up until they inevitably choke. Dallas wins and covers.
Baltimore at NY Jets
Let me just preface this. I hate the Patriots, Dolphins and Cowboys. But I have a special hate for the Jets. No team is so continually overhyped and talked up than the Jets. And no team is full of such douchebags. Although I will admit that Rex Ryan is fuckin' hilarious. Still, people seem to forget that the Jets backed into the playoffs last year and had Mark Sanchez on a "red light- green light" system before every passing play. He was bad enough to choke away a game against THE BILLS. So let's calm down here. Although the defense is scary good, especially with Darrelle Revis. On the flipside, I really like the Ravens this year. The offense should be prolific with Ray Rice, Joe Flacco and new additions Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmanzadeh. The defense should be good against the run and hopefully better against the pass. While I think the Jets will compete for the AFC East title, they aren't THAT good. The Ravens pull off the win! (Maybe my bias clouds that one a little bit).
San Diego at Kansas City
Ahhh, the late game on Monday Night. I'll probably be able to catch this one after the PAVEMENT CONCERT (!). Anyway, the Chargers will still have their pretty good offense, even without LT and Vincent Jackson, as Ryan Matthews filling in quite nicely. The defense should continue to be opportunistic as usual. As for KC, I think they will be better than people think. While the defense is not great, the offense has some weapons, like Jamaal Charles, who has some serious speed and moves. If Matt Cassel can play competently, they can win some games. In this game, though, I see the Chargers winning, but KC covering the -4.5 spread as underdogs.
So that's that. ITS FOOTBALL TIME.
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