Back from the woods for the Week 6 Picks

The Bills latest attempt at pass coverage.

It's been two weeks, but I'm back, and (legitimately!) better. Over the past two weeks, I've nailed my overall picks (21-8) and stayed steady against the spread (15-14). Looks like I'm close to figuring out this season...

Which, of course, means I already screwed up my first pick of the week, taking the Steelers to cover and win. As a result of some bad coaching by the Steelers, the Titans won by three. Well, whoops. Time to soldier on.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Cleveland

This Bengals team doesn't have quite the mojo it did last year; Andy Dalton is struggling without a running game, and the defense isn't covering up his mistakes as well as it did last year. The Browns, meanwhile, have yet to get a win this year, but they're not as bad as everyone thinks. Well, they're not 0-16 bad. They have to get a win sometime, and they've been playing better as of late, so, why not? Cleveland gets a W, followed by another long losing streak.

Pick: Browns win, cover

Indianapolis at NY Jets (-3.5)

Though the Jets put up more of a fight last week than expected, this is still a broken football team without Darrelle Revis. Sanchez and Tebow are in a race to the bottom at quarterback; their best receiver is Jeremy Kerley; and they have a commitment to ground and pound football straight from the 1950s. The Colts, on the other hand, are plucky and playing for their leukemia-stricken coach (yes, it's insensitive to say, but it is motivating the Colts- just watch the postgame from their win over the Packers). New York seems to be getting the points here because they're at home, but I fail to see the advantage 80,000 angry, drunk Jets fans will give the team as they relentlessly boo Sanchez. So I like the Colts here.

Pick: Colts win, cover

Kansas City at Tampa Bay (-4)

You could only get me to watch this game if you strapped me in Clockwork Orange style. The Buccaneers relish in playing boring football (or, GRITTY NEVER SAY DIE CHARACTER BALL BY COACH GREG SCHIANO), while the Chiefs have not led a game yet- their one win came in overtime. Tampa Bay has more talent on both sides of the ball and Kansas City is starting Brady Quinn. at quarterback. Seems easy enough.

Pick: Buccaneers win, cover

Oakland at Atlanta (-9)

Oakland is just a terrible team. And they're playing across the country against one of the best teams in football right now. While those two sentences should be enough, fine, I'll say a little more: Oakland's corners are awful, and the Falcons have really good receivers. On the other side of the ball, the Atlanta defense is sturdy, and the Raiders have a quarterback who looooooves to throw interceptions almost as much as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Michael Vick's lovechild. I just don't see how the Raiders stay in this game.

Pick: Falcons win, cover

Dallas at Baltimore (-3.5)

Baltimore is one of the better teams in the league, but they have an odd tendency to play down to their opponents as well as not give the ball to their best player, Ray Rice. The Cowboys are coming off a bye, and the extra rest should be enough to keep them in the game- but not enough to win. The Cowboys defense has been extremely vulnerable, and Tony Romo is still finding new and ingenious ways to screw up in the 4th quarter.

Pick: Ravens win, Cowboys cover

Detroit at Philadelphia (-3.5)

With the emergence of the Vikings in the NFC North, the Lions increasingly look like they're going to be squeezed out of the playoff picture (I still believe in the Packers). Their secondary is horrible, and the lack of a halfway competent running game has left the offense too one dimensional to compete week to week. Philly, meanwhile, is a great team bearing the burden of a terrible coach. The Eagles should hand the ball off to LeSean McCoy 20+ times a game, but instead they allow Michael Vick free reign to turnover the ball as much as he wants! Since I can't figure out how good either of these teams are compared to one another, I'll just take the home team to win and the points.

Pick: Eagles win, Lions cover

St. Louis at Miami (-3.5)

I thought that at least if the Bills sucked this year, the Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill would too. But: they don't! The Dolphins solid defense and running game have led them to be 3-2, and they have the ability to stay in most games and beat bad teams. The Rams are by no means a bad team, but they're on the road, out of the comfort of their dome. I think the Dolphins pick up another win and further depress me with their competency.

Pick: Dolphins win, cover

New England (-3.5) at Seattle

New England's offense has spent the past six quarters absolutely rolling on offense (to be fair, two of those quarters were against the Bills). Their offense is, to use a hoary cliche, a well oiled machine. The Seahawks, though, relish the opportunity to throw sand into the machine, clog up the gears, and make the game ugly. Their defensive secondary and pass rush should do enough to slow down the Patriots; but their offense, led by Russel Wilson (whose closest comparison is Tim Tebow, because, improbably, they find a way to win in the end despite all empirical evidence pointing to them being bad quarterbacks) won't be able to keep up with even a sputtering Patriots team.

Pick: Patriots win, cover

Buffalo at Arizona (-4)

I imagine the Cardinals gathered to watch tape on the Bills and burst out in laughter throughout. The Bills aren't getting beat on defense by fancy schemes, trick plays, weird mistakes or pure talent; they just don't execute at even the most basic level. Apparently, "coverage" and "tackling" are optional in the defensive scheme, as well as "getting close to the quarterback." They just don't do those things. On offense, the Bills try running the ball about two times, and then they give up on it (or they're already down by two touchdowns because of their atrocious defense) and let Ryan Fitzpatrick try to throw deep passes down the sideline, always in vain. Goddamn, I hate watching this team. My fifth grade flag football team could score on this defense (I have a feeling even I, a slow offensive lineman, could burn Aaron Williams and Leodis McKelvin). Jim Kelly could come out of retirement and throw a better deep pass than Fitzpatrick. Hell, Jack Kemp could do it better from his grave.

The Cardinals have a good defense and their half-competent offense should be just fine against the Bills carcass of a defense. No, I'm not bitter at how this season's gone at all. I can't wait to sarcastically clap when the Bills allow less than 40 points. Can't wait!

Pick: Cardinals win, cover

Minnesota at Washington (-2)

Tough to figure this one out. The Vikings are good, but I don't know if they're good enough to improve to 5-1 on the road against a not horrible Redskins team. On the other side, RG3 is returning from a concussion and the Redskins defense has been decimated by injury. I guess I'm going with the Vikings in a close one. Just to complete an absolutely horrible weekend for Washington sports.

Pick: Vikings win, cover

NY Giants at San Francisco (-6.5)

Game of the week, by far. San Francisco's been the better team so far this season, but the Giants are...well, the Giants, meaning they constantly confound expectations. Like a six point spread for the defending Super Bowl champs. While both coaches have tried to play the "underdog" card this week- hell, they've competed for the title in an attempt to motivate their players- the 49ers have more to play for in getting even after last season's NFC Championship game. I think this will be a close one, high scoring, but I trust the 49ers defense to get a stop wayyyy more than I trust the Giants. In a close game, that's all that matters.

Pick: 49ers win, Giants cover

Green Bay at Houston (-3.5)

Green Bay's been less than impressive this season- Aaron Rodgers is struggling, the running game is a joke, and the defense hasn't improved much since last season. The Texans are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL- but they haven't played anyone good yet (sorry, Broncos). I'm feeling some upsets this week, so I think Rodgers puts on a vintage performance, shreds the Texans secondary, and wins a close one.

Pick: Packers win, cover

Denver at San Diego (PK)

The Broncos must be glad that their contract with Peyton Manning is only guaranteed for one year, because right now, at least, he just doesn't have the same skills as he used to. His celebrated cerebral-ism is still there, but his inability to throw with as much zip as he used to is killing him. He can dink and dunk down the field, but that does only so much. The Chargers aren't a great team by any means, but they have an effective offense and they're playing at home. I think they should take this one. My only reservation is that Norv Turner is still coaching the Chargers, and it's on national television. Never a good combo.

Pick: Chargers win

Last 2 Weeks (ATS): 21-8 (15-14)
This Week (ATS): 0-1 (0-1)
Overall: 45-33
Overall (ATS): 36-41-1

Week 4: Hovering around .500

Bills hope to have Fred Jackson back- only way to stay in game

Wow. Last week was brutal. Between the horrible replacement refs (finally, finally gone) making football literally unenjoyable to watch and CJ Spiller going down with a horrible (looking) injury, it was the worst Bills win I think I've ever watched. As for my picks, most of my upset picks were horribly wrong, and a bunch of teams I was certain of faltered. Still, I ended up at 7-9 overall and 8-8 ATS. Which isn't horrible. That's just about all I can vouch for in terms of my picks right now: they're not horrible. Trust about half of them.

Onto the Thursday night game that already happened. Note on Thursday games: I tweet out my picks before the game.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-12)

I thought Baltimore would take this handily, and they did, just not handily enough. Browns covered the spread. The Browns could use like ten thousand new receivers, though. After some extensive research watching them last week, I can safely say that they are one again frontrunners for the most boring team in the NFL. When was the last time you actively watched a Browns highlight?

Half right pick: Baltimore wins, covers

New England (-3.5) at Buffalo

The Patriots have lost two straight games, but if you listen to angry Pats fans, like the ones who I work at summer camp with, they should be AT LEAST 2-1 (those fahckin' replacement refs!!!). To be somewhat non-biased, though, they haven't looked like the Patriots of old in either of those games- something's a little off on offense and the defense, though improved, isn't a world beater yet. If the Bills had a fully healthy Fred Jackson or CJ Spiller (both might play, but both are less than 100%- and Chan Gailey might be bluffing on these injury reports), I'd say they have a chance. The Bills offense is completely around the run game now; Gailey can't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick on a game to game basis, but he can trust two stud running backs. But Spiller and Jackson will sit out and play injured, respectively, and these Patriots don't lose three games in a row. Unless the Bills defensive line has a superhuman effort and forces Tom Brady into mistakes, the Pats should win this easily- the Bills offense just isn't at full strength, and the defense hasn't show it can shut down elite offenses yet.

Pick: Patriots win, cover

Minnesota at Detroit (-4)

Can anyone remind me why I should like the Lions and this spread? The Lions haven't looked very good this year. especially as they got lit up by the Titans last week. Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford are both ailing, which basically hinders the whole offense, and the defense has never been anything special. Minnesota, meanwhile, has a power running game and a rapidly improving QB in Christian Ponder. They know exactly what they want to do on both sides of the ball and execute. If they can beat the 49ers, I don't see the hobbled Lions faring much better against them.

Pick: Vikings win, cover

Carolina at Atlanta (-7)

Carolina has kind of looked like garbage this season. Last year's regression over the second half of the season by Cam Newton seems to have continued, and the defense has shown a disturbing fear of tackling. This does not look like the team many thought could contend for an NFC South crown (which, right now, looks to have three mediocre to bad teams in it). The one good team in the NFC South, the Falcons, have blown me away defensively this year. Their success in the regular season is pre-ordained, it seems. What remains to be seen is whether it can continue in the playoffs.

Pick: Falcons win, cover

San Francisco (-4) at New York Jets

It's hard to quantify just how important Darrelle Revis is to the Jets defense. On many defensive plays, he was tasked with covering one whole side of the field, leaving ten other defenders available to disrupt the other side. Without him, the dynamism of the Jets defense disappears, and with that, the Jets are immediately much worse overall. The offense is made to play with a great defense; they won't be able to stay in high scoring games. Meanwhile, San Francisco had a misstep last week in Minnesota, but I still believe in their overall talent- the defense, at its best, is nearly unbeatable and I don't think the Jets have the personnel to overcome that.

Pick: Niners win, cover

San Diego (-1) at Kansas City

Make no mistake: the Chiefs are really, really bad. The team they beat last week, the Saints, are just somehow, shockingly, worse. San Diego ran into a great Falcons team last week and looked beat from the start, and I'll still take them over the Romeo Crennel lead Chiefs. The Bills crushed them; the Chargers ought to be able to as well.

Pick: Chargers win, cover

Tennessee at Houston (-12)

Houston's looked really good this season, but I'm hesitant to take a twelve point spread in ANY game this season, especially since Tennessee had their offensive awakening last week. The Texans are still a better team, but the Titans should hang around and keep this game within ten. Kind of like Browns-Ravens, but with a little more excitement.

Pick: Texans win, Titans cover

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis

Well, I was very wrong about the Rams last week, but they're still a better team than last year. The Seahawks controversial totally ludicrous win last week has overshadowed the fact that their defense shut down the Packers for four quarters, and that they have one of the better secondaries in the league. On offense, they have a strong running game and Russell Wilson does just enough to pull out wins (even if they are, ahem, contentious). Seattle should take this one on the road, but I expect the Rams to stay within seven or ten.

Pick: Seahawks win, cover

Miami at Arizona (-5.5)

Alright. I give. The Cardinals are a good football team, anchored by a great defense and an offense that doesn't make mistakes. They will struggle, though, if they go down in a game- they are built to play ahead. Fortunately, the Dolphins, without Reggie Bush, are not the team that will give them that challenge. Arizona, somehow, gets to 4-0.

Pick: Cardinals win, cover

Oakland at Denver (-7)

How is Denver getting seven points here? Peyton Manning looks to be 60% of his 2010 self- that was his worst season- and the defense hasn't stepped up to make up for their deficiencies. The Raiders found their running game last week and found a way to win against the Steelers. That being said, I don't feel comfortable picking them to win in Denver. Popgun arm Peyton Manning finds a way!

Pick: Broncos win, Raiders cover

Cincinnati (-1) at Jacksonville

Wait, what? If the line is this low because of Jacksonville's home field "advantage", that's hilarious.This is the stadium that covers whole sections in tarps to prevent blackouts. I know. I've been there. The Bengals are just like last year; they'll beat every bad team they play and stay competitive with the elite. The Jaguars are slowly improving, but I don't see them winning, and a 1 point spread is basically asking me to pick a winner. Bengals look good to win here.

Pick: Bengals win, cover

New Orleans at Green Bay (-7.5)

I was so, so, so goddamn wrong about the Saints. They are comically bad. The Packers are angry after the debacle on Monday night and will shred the Saints' atrocious defense. Drew Brees might be able to keep it close for a bit, but nothing can overcome the bad mojo surrounding this team. Run, run away from the Saints bandwagon, all ye who have decided to remain on it while it burns. Sorry to one of my favorite high school teachers ever/ beacoup Saints fan for that.

Pick: Packers win, cover

Washington at Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Tampa Bay doesn't play pretty, but they play consistently ugly, and it keeps them in most of their games. The Redskins are this year's most entertaining team, which is good if wins and losses don't mean that much to you. The Redskins defense has been hobbled by injuries, and the offense might not be able to get past the no-nonsense Buccaneers defense. The Bucs will take this one at home, ugly, just how they planned it.

Pick: Buccaneers win, cover

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Philadelphia has won two of it's games by a point each; and got blown out by the Cardinals last week. Consistent through all that is tons of turnovers and a horrible offensive line. The Giants, meanwhile, have bounced back from some early season shakiness. Of course, just when you think they've fixed their issues, they manage to screw up. Still, I think the Eagles good record has been a result of a lot of luck, and I think the Giants have a better overall team.

Pick: Giants win, cover

Chicago at Dallas (-3.5)

If I had any money to bet, I would stay away from this game. The Bears were much improved last week, but it's always possible for Jay Cutler to lay an egg in primetime. The Cowboys won an ugly one last week against the Buccaneers. The Bears defense can keep them in any game; I'm just not sure about the offense yet. The balanced offensive attack the Cowboys are capable of should be enough to squeak out a win.

Pick: Cowboys win, Bears cover

Last Week (ATS): 7-9 (8-8)
This Week (ATS): 1-0 (0-1)
Overall: 24-24
Overall (ATS): 21-26-1

Week 3 NFL Pickapalooza: Road Warriors

Fitzpatrick is not to be trusted with anything besides handing off

Week 3 is hard to figure since so many teams submitted completely different performances than Week 1. I don't think I'll have a handle on this season till about Week Five. And it shows in my picks! I went 8-8 last week and (yikes) 6-9-1 against the spread. Good thing I'm picking a majority of road teams this week, right? That always works out well!!!

New York Giants at Carolina (-2.5)

Full disclosure: I usually write the Thursday night pick before the game happens, but I was totally swamped and didn't have time. But I was absolutely certain that the Panthers would win this game. As my Dad says all the time: the Giants, always f***ing up my picks. My dad and I play in a confidence picks pool (that's 16 points on the team you are most certain will win, 1 on the pick you're least certain on) and I don't think he's picked a Giants game right, ever. This team will infuriate me and my Dad for the rest of time.

Totally wrong pick I made: Panthers win, cover

St. Louis at Chicago (-7)

I like the way the Rams have been playing lately. I think people forgot about Sam Bradford and how this team almost made the playoffs two years ago. It's like a low-level repeat of the 49ers last year, who got a new coach and played up to the standard they had set two years previous. They also got a ton of draft picks by trading their draft pick to the Redskins, so they're set up for long term success. As for the Bears, wow, what a difference a week makes, huh? Jay Culter was atrocious, and his offensive line was even worse. The defense is still fine, but not good enough to win games on their own. Plus, the Bears are playing without Matt Forte, making their offense very one dimensional. Which is a very long way of saying I think the Rams will upset the Bears.

Pick: Rams win, cover

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-8)

Totally schizophrenic performance from the Cowboys over the last two weeks. Impressive win over the Giants in Week One, then blown out by the Seahawks in Week 2. I have no idea what to expect. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have played good football over the past two weeks, managing to beat the Panthers and stay with the Giants. I think the Cowboys talent will win out, but I'll take the points based on the Bucs' consistency.

Pick: Cowboys win, Buccaneers cover

San Francisco (-7) at Minnesota

The 49ers are the best team in the NFL, and it doesn't even seem close. The defense is too good, and the offense has fixed its glaring weaknesses from last year, actually adding receiving threats and letting Alex Smith throw the ball a little bit. The Vikings couldn't find a way against the Colts last week, and missed a primo opportunity to go 2-0; I don't see much of a chance for the Vikes here.

Pick: 49ers win, cover

Detroit (-3.5) at Tennessee

Detroit hasn't looked great this season, but they put up a fight against the 49ers last week, and still have one of the best offenses in the league. On the other side are the Titans, who look just plain awful. The offense can't get anything going- especially the corpse of Chris Johnson- and the defense has been ineffective at best. The Titans may just be one of the worst teams in the league this year, unless Jake Locker makes some huge steps at quarterback.

Pick: Lions win, cover

Cincinnati at Washington (-3)

Washington looks to be the same team as the Panthers were last year- exciting rookie quarterback (not just saying that because they're both black), good offense, no defense and no depth. A lot of shootouts, but with that a lot of losses. Meanwhile, the Bengals look to be as good as last year- consistently good defense and an offense that will put up at least 20 or so points in a game, against average competition. Washington lost two of their best defensive players last week, which should make this game easier for the Bengals.

Pick: Bengals win, cover

NY Jets (-1) at Miami

No idea on this game. Both teams have shown two completely different sides in their two games. The Dolphins could be a team with a great defense, great running game that hides their rookie quarterback. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez play more like the Sanchez we all know and love- horribly inaccurate- and the defense struggle without Darrelle Revis. Revis is back this Sunday, though, which makes the Jets defense much more dynamic- and I think that will be enough to shut down the Dolphins offense.

Pick: Jets win, cover

Kansas City at New Orleans (-8.5)

Both these teams are 0-2; surprisingly so for the Saints. The Saints defense has been so atrocious that the Saints offense, which has looked maybe 80% as good as last year (and thus, still better than a majority of the league) can't keep up with other teams. And I still, still think the Saints will beat the Chiefs this week. That's how bad the Chiefs looked last week. Romeo Crennel might have been the worst head coaching hire in quite some time.

Pick: Saints win, cover

Buffalo (-3) at Cleveland

The Bills looked really good last week, thanks to CJ Spiller and the fact they were playing the Chiefs. I'm worried about what happens when Spiller faces eight men in the box, planning specifically to stop him. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can make some throws early, then the Bills will have success. Not sure if I can count on that, seeing as Fitzpatrick was basically taken out of the game plan for the first half last week. The Browns looked a little better last week, but I have a hard time picking them to win; I think they can keep it close, but I don't trust them to win. Well, I trust them less than the Bills. Ah, the Bills: I can never feel safe!

Pick: Bills win, Browns cover

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3)

I'd like to sincerely apologize to my friend Ben for totally jinxing the Jaguars. They could not, as I predicted last week, keep it close against the Titans, and Blaine Gabbert struggled again. The Colts, meanwhile, played a lot better in Week 2, as Andrew Luck showed a lot of improvement. Defense still isn't very good, though, and that's why I can't get behind the Colts too much here. The Jags: they might actually stay in THIS one, I swear!

Pick: Colts win, Jaguars cover

Philadelphia (-3) at Arizona 

Arizona is 9-2 over it's past 11 games, and 2-0 this season. This cannot be real. I get it, their defense is great, but the offense has nothing except a terminally frustrated Larry Fitzgerald. It just doesn't make sense. The Eagles are also somehow 2-0, despite leading the league in turnovers. They've won both games by a point. Something has to give in this game, and I think the Eagles talent wins out in this game. But you know what? I can't count out the Cardinals. Somehow, they'll keep it close. Somehow.

Pick: Eagles win, Cardinals cover

Atlanta at San Diego (-3)

Surprised by the line here- San Diego has beaten two bad teams, while the Falcons at least beat the Broncos. Since I haven't seen anything that proves the Chargers are an elite team, I like the Falcons here. They have a better secondary than I expected, and the offense is as ruthlessly efficient as it's ever been.

Pick: Falcons win, cover

Houston (-1.5) at Denver 

Tough to call this one; Peyton Manning crapped the bed against the Falcons early, but then settled down and made a game of it by the end. The Texans haven't played anyone good yet. I like the Texans defense, though, and the consistency of their offense. Still don't know enough about the Broncos.

Pick: Texans win, cover

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Oakland

The Raiders are spinning their wheels and going nowhere. The return of Darren McFadden has not helped, and Carson Palmer is nothing more than an average quarterback. The Steelers, on the other hand, have a dynamic passing attack and a good (no longer great) defense. Same old, same old for the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers win, cover

New England at Baltimore (-2.5)

This looks to be the best game of the weekend. The Ravens will want revenge after last year's AFC Championship game and a tough loss last weekend; the Patriots will look to recover from their bizarre loss to the Cardinals last week. I like the Ravens in this game because of their defense- if the Patriots struggled against the Cardinals defense, why would they do any better against the Ravens? Add in the now dangerous Ravens offense, and I see Baltimore taking this one.

Pick: Ravens win, cover

Green Bay (-3) at Seattle

The Packers haven't looked great so far, but the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, which keeps them in any game. If their offensive line figures out their crap, this will be a much better Packers team. As for the Seahawks, they acquitted themselves well in Week 2 after a bad Week 1 loss. They have a sneaky good defense, and when Marshawn Lynch gets going, the offense is tough to stop. I like the Packers overall talent at this point, but I think the Seahawks can stay in it, especially with a hyped up, Monday Night crowd behind them.

Pick: Packers win, Seahawks cover

This week (ATS): 0-1 (0-1)
Last Week (ATS): 8-8 (6-9-1)
Overall: 17-16
Overall ATS: 13-20-1

Week 2 NFL Picks: Impossible to Tell

 CJ Spiller: the only bright spot of the Bills, so far

The first week of picks is probably the hardest- there are so many unknowns. The second week is nearly as tough, though. There's no way to know the relative quality of each team yet. What I'm saying is, a team that looked impressive in Week One could've been playing a horrible team; a team that looked awful could've been playing a future Super Bowl winner. It's impossible to tell whether teams are better or worse than what they showed yet- the opponent matters so much. So these are hardly picks I make with extreme confidence, in most cases.

Last week, I went 9-7 overall and 7-9 against the spread. Batting around .500, which is fine for me on Week 1. And I already messed up the Thursday Night game- well, just the spread.

Chicago at Green Bay (-5.5)

The Bears are riding high off their Week 1 win over the Colts, and the Super Bowl hype is, obviously, already building in Chicago. Never mind that they beat a rookie QB making his first start surrounded by a horrible team. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off a tough loss to the 49ers, who look to be the class of the league. The Packers have lost their last three games at Lambeau, and I'm sure they're tired of hearing about it. I see the Packers having more offensive success than last week (sorry, Bears, your defense is not on the 49ers level), but the Packers defense is still suspect. I like the Packers to win, but the Bears to keep it close, close enough to crush the hopes of delusional Bears fans.

No, the Bills Week 1 loss didn't make me bitter, or anything.

Pick: Packers win, Bears cover

(Update from the future: Jay Cutler was horrible and the Bears lost. Ha! The Packers weren't super impressive, though.)

Tampa Bay at NY Giants (-7.5)

The Bucs somehow managed to out-discipline, out-character, out-gritty and out-whatever cliche you want to use about a Greg Schiano coached team to beat the Panthers last Sunday, holding them to 10 yards rushing total. The Giants are better than the Panthers, though, have had since last Thursday to rest, and have a more balanced attack on offense- as well as a more talented defense. Plus, they played their typical "mess up an easily winnable game" last week, and the Giants rarely repeat those week to week. No, better to save it for every five weeks or so.

Pick: Giants win, cover

Arizona at New England (-13.5)

The Cardinals, despite their win over the Seahawks last week, still look to be one of the worst teams in the league. John Skelton, who 'won' the quarterback competition, is out with an ankle injury, and Kevin Kolb gets yet another chance to 'shine' as the starter. The defense was able to frustrate a rookie last week, at home, but this is against Tom Brady, on the road. I don't see things going so well for the Cards.

Pick: Patriots win, cover

Minnesota (-1.5) at Indianapolis 

Andrew Luck was not the magical franchise savoir everyone expected him to be in a Week 1 loss to the Bears- he was a rookie. There was some good, and some bad. While he'll get better with time, the rest of the team doesn't have quite the same ceiling. The offensive line, running backs, most of the receivers, and the defense are near the bottom of the league, talent-wise. No amount of rookie magic will fix that. The Vikings, meanwhile, look like they could be a decent team- Christian Ponder is slowly coming along at quarterback, Adrian Peterson is still one of the best running backs in the league, Percy Harvin works well in open space, and the defense isn't horrible. That sounds good enough to beat most bad teams in the NFL, including this Colts team.

Pick: Vikings win, cover

New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Saints were a little out of sorts last week, but that's probably what happens when your coach is the interim to the interim coach, and the real coach is lurking off somewhere in the shadows (presumably). Still, this is basically the same team as last year- the high powered offense with a turnover forcing defense. As for the Panthers, they looked all out of sorts, but with none of the excuses that the Saints have. They couldn't rush the ball, and Cam Newton struggled his way to an ugly 300 yard passing day. The defense was able to shut down the Buccaneers, but the Saints have a little more talent, and a little more to play for this week. The Saints are a playoff contender with Drew Brees at the helm; we have yet to see that from the Cam Newton Panthers.

Pick: Saints win, cover

Kansas City at Buffalo (-3)

Oh god, where to begin with the Bills. Fitzpatrick was awful. His third pick was maybe the most confident looking interception I've ever seen. He stepped in the pocket and just ripped it between Antonio Cromartie's numbers, in the flat, for a pick-six. The defensive line didn't show up, and the Jets used quick routes and throws to make sure they didn't. The corners were atrocious. Leodis McKelvin needs to be cut, or guarding tight ends. The only thing the Bills did well was run the ball (thank god for CJ Spiller, especially with Fred Jackson out for an extended period) and stop the run. They were flat out unprepared to play the Jets. It was one of the worst Bills games I remember watching. And yet...

I feel like this team can't be any worse than that performance. The Chiefs were almost as bad last week in losing to the Falcons, but I can't tell what will happen in this game. If the Bills think they are anything close to a playoff team, they win this game. And I have no idea if the Chiefs are as bad as they looked, or the Falcons are just that good, but I am, regrettably, once again putting my faith in the Bills. They can't be this bad.

Pick: Bills win, Chiefs cover

Baltimore at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Wait, what is this line? Do the Eagles have such a home field advantage that we're just ignoring last week? The Ravens completely blew me away as they destroyed the Bengals, showcasing a no huddle attack that actually works (not to say that the Broncos' version didn't work last week, but the Ravens do it all game) and the same stout defense. Meanwhile, the Eagles barely beat the Browns. With their horrible rookie QB. I can't trust the Eagles as long as Andy Reid coaches them. They have the talent to win titles but are consistently hampered by his awful time management and play calling. The Ravens look like a complete team; the Eagles, still a mess.

Pick: Ravens win, cover

Oakland (-2.5) at Miami

Ryan Tannehill's NFL debut was just as bad as I imagined, and I loved every second of it. That was the only solace I could take from last weekend as the Bills tried to ruin my day completely: Ryan Tannehill looks awful. The only thing that will keep them in games is their above average defense- and that's good enough for this game, at least. Oakland could barely move the ball last week against the Chargers,  and any team worth it's salt will shut down the Raiders running game and force Carson Palmer to throw- not the game plan the Raiders want to use. While I'm not huge on a West Coast team on a short week travelling across the country, the Dolphins are bad enough at home to warrant my belief that the Raiders will eke out a win here.

Pick: Raiders win, Dolphins cover

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-7)

Look at my Eagles pick and you'll see how I feel about the Browns. They are a boring team with a horrible quarterback. Brandon Weeden is a 28 year old project, and that combination rarely leads to wins in the NFL. Or ever. Meanwhile, Cincinnati got out-classed by the Ravens, but that's pretty much par for the course from what we saw last year- they beat bad teams and lose to good ones. Cleveland is a bad, bad team, and the Bengals should be able to win this easily.

Pick: Bengals win, cover

Houston (-7) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars aren't that bad! My Jaguars fan friend, Quazzo, will be overjoyed to hear this (we were watching Sportscenter during the pre-season, and the panel pretty much decided that the Jaguars were not a playoff team this yeah. No chance, at all. Not even considered. Not a good night for Quazzo). Even though he totally jinxed his team by celebrating before they had, you know, actually won the game. Either way, Blaine Gabbert looked like a halfway decent quarterback last week, Maurice Jones Drew didn't look too rusty, and the defense was as sneaky good as last year. The Texans traditionally struggle against their own division, and the Jags have the defense to stay in this. Not win it, mind you, but stay in it- not a minor feat against an extremely talented and balanced Texans team. And that's progress for the Jags! They're staying in it now! Your 2012 Jacksonville Jaguars- we're not getting blown out!

Pick: Texans win, Jaguars cover

Dallas (-3) at Seattle

The Seahawks completely extinguished the pre-season momentum that Russel Wilson engendered with a horrible performance against the Cardinals. That was on the road, though. Seattle has the best home field advantage in the league, good enough to change games. I expect the Seahawks to play better at home, but I don't know if they can beat the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys have had extra rest, are riding high after their win over the Giants, and have a plethora of weapons on offense- an offense that many teams will be hard pressed to stop, it seems. I don't think the Cowboys will make it easy- Romo could easily be rattled in this stadium- but if the Seahawks struggled against the Cardinals, home sweet home won't be quite enough.

Pick: Cowboys win, Seahawks cover

Washington (-3) at St. Louis

The Rams actually gave Detroit a tough game last week, forcing Matthew Stafford into three picks, limiting Calvin Johnson, and losing only in the last minutes. This is not the disaster that was last year- it's a cleaned up version, which I predicted last week. The defense is tough, Stephen Jackson is somehow still chugging along, and Sam Bradford is a good enough quarterback. As for the Redskins, they are filled with confidence after Robert Griffin III's auspicious debut. Unfortunately for the Redskins, teams now have some tape on RG3, and what surprised the Saints last week may not surprise the Rams. And the Redskins defense didn't look impressive last week (although most teams look bad against the Saints offense). All of this is a long winded way of saying, don't count St. Louis out of this game in the midst of all the RG3 hype and media adoration.

Pick: Redskins win, Rams cover

NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

The Jets certainly surprised me last week, but I'm not sure how much of that was a product of the Bills horrible play or the Jets actual talent. Either Mark Sanchez is finally a functional NFL quarterback, or the Bills secondary made him look a lot better. I lean towards the latter. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, couldn't beat the overwhelming media narrative of Peyton Manning returning. Too scared to go with Jets when I still haven't seen them play a functional team (Note: the Bills were NOT that on Sunday). Plus, the Jets are without Darrell Revis, the lynch pin of their defense. I like the Steelers, angry after losing to the Broncos, winning at home.

Pick: Steelers win, Jets cover

Tennessee at San Diego (-6)

No idea what to figure on either of these teams. The Chargers pulled out an ugly win over the Raiders, while the Titans didn't do much to impress in a loss against the Patriots. Once again, I fall into the quandary of figuring out if these teams looked good or bad because of their opponent or if they are actually that good or bad. I have no new opinions about either of these teams since last week. When in doubt, take the points, right?

Pick: Chargers win, Titans cover

Detroit at San Francisco (-6.5)

While many were calling for a regression for the 49ers, the team that showed up to Lambeau last Sunday looked like favorites in the NFC, if not the whole league. Alex Smith actually has talented receivers, and the defense can shut down anyone. In a pass happy league, the 49ers have found an anti-dote. Any team that can't establish the run against the 49ers (which is hard enough) is doomed to flounder trying to pass. They made Aaron Rodgers look sort of pedestrian last week. Detroit is a very one dimensional offense- lots of passing- and didn't look great as they squeaked by the Rams. The 49ers are a class above the Rams, and I don't think Detroit will be able to keep up.

Pick: 49ers win, cover

Denver at Atlanta (-3)

Peyton Manning has his second week in a row playing in prime time, and he looked in vintage form last week. Atlanta also looked a lot better than I expected last week, though that could be a product of a bad Chiefs team. I still don't trust Atlanta's defense, though, and I expect this one to be a shoot out. With the game on the line, the Broncos can get a stop. I'm still not so sure about the Falcons in that situation.

Pick: Broncos win, cover

Last week (ATS): 9-7 (7-9)
Overall: 10-7
Overall ATS:7-10

The NFL Week 1 Picks/ Season Preview Bonanza!!!

The Bills 100 Million Dollar Man, Mario Williams

Ok folks, let's be honest: this blog has been dead for a while. I was back in the great white North once again this summer, leading canoe trips, and unable to write. Now, I'm back in Montreal, and do most of my writing (and spend most of my earthly time) over at The McGill Daily, where I'm editing the sports section this year. Add that into school starting up again, and there just isn't very much time left for ol' Super Cursed.

...

...


BUT: It's football season again!!! And I have the unquenchable thirst to make my picks again, every week! This is just one thing I can't help but write about, and the Daily wouldn't run this in a million years (especially at this length), so here I am again. Week One of my weekly picks column usually acts as a sort of season preview, where I, longtime football fan (and long-suffering Bills fan) give my completely unsolicited and unprofessional view on how the season will play out for each team, along with a straight up and against the spread (ATS) pick. Here goes:

Dallas at NY Giants (-3.5)

In order to save President Obama's DNC from getting trounced in the ratings by the NFL opener, the league graciously moved this game to Wednesday. The defending Super Bowl Champion Giants get their showcase game against a hated division rival, and I don't think it will be as close as the spread suggests. The Giants have flown under the radar all offseason as all media attention in New York has shifted to Tim Tebow. The Giants still have one of the best defensive lines in the league, and the offense, which became scary good over the last half of last season, should pick up right where they left off. That combination of pass rush and pass offense is pretty hard to beat in today's NFL, and I like the Giants' chances to repeat as NFC East Champs. The Cowboys, to me, don't seem much improved from the team that limped to the finish last year- they upgraded their secondary, but the rest of the defense is unremarkable outside of DeMarcus Ware, and Tony Romo may be one of the least clutch QBs of all time. This Cowboys team might come out of the gates hot (as in previous years), but what's going to stop their usual late season swoon this year? The Cowboys are a wild card at best. For this game, I like the Giants, eager to start their title defense well, taking a high scoring game against the Cowboys.

Pick: Giants win, cover

(Update from the future: Look how wrong I was!!! Although I would say if the Giants hadn't injured all their corners, the Cowboys wouldn't have had as much success. Still stand by these predictions)

Indianapolis at Chicago (-9.5)

As much as it pained me to say it, the Bears were headed to the playoffs last year before Matt Forte and Jay Cutler were injured. I'm still not sure how, though: they had (and still have) a terrible offensive line and had no quality wide receivers. The defense is solid as always, though, and Cutler and Forte were able to move the ball well together. Cutler and Forte return this year and the Bears have brought on (totally batshit) wide receiver Brandon Marshall, which should ignite the passing offense, as long as Cutler can stay upright. The Colts picked up some guy named Andrew Luck. The rest of the team is awful. Phenomenal seasons by rookie quarterbacks are fun to watch, but don't often result in playoff appearances- which is what we should see in Indy. Luck should be great, but the lack of depth on defense and a running game will keep this team from getting more than six wins (remember, this team plays in a division with Tennessee and Jacksonville- six wins isn't so unreasonable). As for this game, I like the Bears at home, but think Luck and the Colts will remain within the spread. The one benefit to rookie quarterbacks is the lack of tape on them- opposing defenses have a harder time preparing a game plan to stop them.

Pick: Bears win, Colts cover

Philadelphia (-8.5) at Cleveland

The torch of "most depressed NFL city" ought to be firmly placed in Cleveland's hands at this point. The Browns have decided to place their immediate future in the hands of a 28 year old ROOKIE quarterback (Brandon Weeden). And even with seven years on pretty much everyone else in the NCAA, it's not like he won any Heisman trophies- he was just a good college quarterback. Good thing the Browns helped out Weeden and addressed their gigantic, glaring need at wide receiver by picking up... (searches Google)... (sees that the Browns did nothing to address this). The defense is just about league average. This train wreck of an offense paired with that defense, playing in perhaps the hardest division in the NFL (the AFC North) leads me to believe that this will be a looong season in Cleveland, with a top 5 draft pick. As for the Eagles, after a season where almost everything that could've gone wrong went wrong, they seem due to bounce back. As long as Michael Vick can stay healthy, the offense is full of weapons. The defense got the linebacker they needed in trading for DeMeco Ryans, and have committed Nmandi Asomugah is returning to his preferred position on the outside (as opposed to guarding slot receivers). All this spells good news for the defense, which needed to improve to get this team back to the playoffs. For this game, it's pretty easy to see who I like, right?

Pick: Eagles win, cover

Buffalo at NY Jets (-3)

On to the Bills. Last year, I predicted 6-9 wins, or the Bills would bottom out and win 2 games. And they kind of did all of those things! They got to 5-2, then lost 9 of their last 10 games, which was wonderful to watch. The defense was terrible for most of the year- no pass rush, no corners, no run defense (especially after Kyle Williams went down with an injury)- and the offense fell apart halfway through the season as teams figured out that Fitzpatrick couldn't throw deep and Fred Jackson-who accounted for a ridiculous percentage of the Bills' offensive touches- was lost for the season. So what did the Bills do this offseason? They signed Mario Williams. Wait, I'm going to let that sink in AGAIN, because it is still ridiculous. The Bills signed the best defensive player on the market and one of the best defensive pass rushers of the past decade, for 100 million dollars. BUFFALO did that. Then they signed a situational pass rusher (Mark Anderson) and drafted a stud cornerback (Stephon Gilmore). The linebackers could still use a little work, but the defense is definitely much improved. On paper, this is one of the best defensive lines in the league, and Gilmore is already projecting to be a number one corner. On offense, the team returns basically the same starting lineup from last year, but with a new rookie Left Tackle (Cordy Glenn) and a rookie WR (TJ Graham) who could be a #2, deep threat wide receiver. Some have attributed Buffalo's offensive slide to Ryan Fitzpatrick, our occasionally brilliant quarterback, breaking his ribs- though some comes with opponents figuring out the Bills schemes- lots of short slants, screens and draws.

All signs point to this being a better Bills team, one that could compete for a wild card spot this year. And I hope that's the case. But it's the Bills, and every year I get more and more resigned that they will just crap the bed. This is not some sort of Bill-Simmons-Reverse-Jinx. I will not believe the Bills are bound for the playoffs until they clinch their spot. Like, as soon as the seconds tick off the clock of that game. For now, I hope to be proven wrong, hope that they start strong and stay strong over what looks to be an easy back half of the schedule.

As for the Jets? This team looks like a trainwreck. Mark Sanchez hasn't proven himself to be a legitimate NFL quarterback, and his backup, you may have heard of him (TEBOWWWWWW) is perhaps worse. The offense has one legitimate wide receiver (Santonio Holmes), a malcontent, and are committed to running the ball with a decent at best running back (Shonn Greene). The defense isn't as impressive as it was two or three years ago. It just looks like a bad team, to me. But they've owned the Bills the past few years and seem to be in their heads.

But you know what? At the forefront of a Bills season full of so much hope (a lot of media are picking them for the playoffs, the fans are excited...), the propensity for the Bills to disappoint me is too strong. The Jets will win this one. I hope I'm wrong.

Pick: Jets win, cover

Washington at New Orleans (-7)

After what might have been the most tumultuous off season in NFL history, the Saints begin their season without their head coach and middle linebacker. If anything, I think this will motivate the Saints this season, making it an us against the league type situation. They still have an elite offense (minus Robert Meachem, but that's not a huge loss) and an aggressive defense that tries to force turnovers. I like them to win the NFC South. It's a quarterback league, and Drew Brees, if you haven't noticed, is one of the best in the league. As for Washington, they've salvaged their future in order to get RG3, but the rest of the team remains the same from last year- nothing special. The defense has some standouts, but not a ton of depth, and the offense has no clear running back and overpaid, not-that-talented receiver corps. Add in the fact that the Redskins don't have first round picks for a while because of the RG3 trade, and it seems like we'll be seeing a couple more bad years from the Redskins. Doesn't the pick for this game seem obvious?

Pick: Saints win, cover

New England (-5.5) at Tennessee

Not sure why the line is so low on this game. New England is a known quantity- elite nearly every year- while Tennessee is a mystery this year. The Patriots return one of the league's most potent offenses, and now add Brandon Lloyd to the mix, giving the Patriots a deep threat they have sorely missed since Randy Moss left. The defense was atrocious last year, but the Patriots actually decided- *gasp*- to use some first and second round picks on the defense, which should improve the overall unit (although, to be fair, they can't get much worse). They are basically the AFC favorites heading into this year. The dirty little secret about last year's team is that they weren't really good enough to be a Super Bowl team. This year, they're better. As for the Titans, this is a team that somehow finished at 9-7 and a game out of the playoffs. Think to yourself- do you remember one signature win for the Titans in the last eight weeks last season? It only came against an injured Texans team resting for the playoffs in Week 17. This year they've turned over the quarterback position to Jake Locker, who has extreme athleticism but not much in the way of what makes great quarterbacks really great- accuracy. He hasn't looked horrible this pre-season, though, and the rest of the offense is full of talent. The defense is nothing special, but also nothing to scoff at. In a division as weak as the AFC South, I see no problem with them finishing second in the division and threatening for a playoff spot. For this game, though, it should be business as usual for the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots win, cover

Jacksonville at Minnestoa (-3.5)

Oof. Well, not every game can be a winner, and this one, on paper, looks to be terrible. Vikings QB Christian Ponder was a first round reach in last year's draft, and he goes against Blaine Gabbert, another first round reach! The excitement is palpable here. If you are trying to see a gruesome injury, keep an eye on Adrian Peterson as he tries to return from an ACL injury months before most doctors would reasonably allow! Or, if you like malcontented receivers, watch as brand new Jaguars receivers (Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson) get increasingly frustrated with Blaine Gabbert's horrible inaccuracy! (Yes, he's been better this pre-season, but I've seen too many quarterbacks excel in the pre-season and go back to being horrible when the games count).  Also, the Jaguars have a sneaky good defense that should keep this game close, despite the Jaguars' offensive deficiencies (star running back Maurice Jones Drew is just coming off a holdout, which never works out too well). Ponder has shown more flashes of actual ability at QB than Gabbert, and has Percy Harvin at WR, and they're at home-good enough for me. In the long run, though, both these teams don't look like playoff teams.

Pick: Vikings win, Jaguars cover

Miami at Houston (-13)

Speaking of Blaine Gabbert and non-playoff teams, Miami drafted Ryan Tannehill in the first round this year, just to make sure they don't make the playoffs. Seriously, this guy is a wide receiver turned quarterback who was merely league average in the Big 12. But due to the quarterback draft hype cycle, he got bumped up about 30 spots in the draft by the attention starved Dolphins. And then they traded one of their best defensive players, CB Vontae Davis. Basically, I wouldn't bet on them going anywhere fast this year. As for the Texans, they were close to the AFC Championship game last year even though they they starting TJ Yates at QB. Now that they've got Matt Schaub back, a healthy (for as long as that happens) Andre Johnson, and the most consistent running back in football, Arian Foster. The defense lost Mario Williams (who was injured for the most of the season) and DeMeco Ryans, but was still one of the best units in the NFL. They should roll through their weak division and really roll over the hilariously bad Dolphins.

Pick: Texans win, cover

St. Louis at Detroit (-8) 

The Lions finally made due on their considerable talent and made the playoffs last year, led by a pass happy offense (seriously, NO running game) and ultimately brought down by their porous pass defense (seriously, NO corner backs). They still have a great defensive line and will still be able to pass (if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for a second year in a row), but they didn't make any huge improvements from last year, and a healthy Bears team has closed the gap in the NFC North. Getting to the playoffs will be tougher this year- and I see them beating bad teams but struggling against the elite. They'll either get the last wild card or just fall short. The Rams, a sleeper pick last year, completely fell apart last year as Sam Bradford struggled through injuries. They have a new coach in Jeff Fisher, and that seems good to give them about 4 more wins this year (remember, this team went 7-9 two years) ago. 6-10 seems about right, yeah? Still, this Rams team won't be able to contain the Lions offense and won't be able to move the ball well (weak crop of receivers).

Pick: Lions win, cover

Atlanta (-2.5) at Kansas City

The Falcons are once again a trendy pick to go to the Super Bowl, due to people expecting a huge improvement from Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. While I think the Falcons can still be a playoff team (winning the NFC South or getting the wild card behind the Saints), the defense hasn't significantly improved since last year (sorry, Asante Samuel does not count), and that will be their downfall against elite offensive teams like the Saints, Packers, Patriots. They might win a playoff game this year, but I don't see them in the Super Bowl. As for Kansas City, they would have sleeper potential written all over them (unlucky with injuries last year, stout defense, capable offense with Jamaal Charles coming back), but Romeo Crennel is the coach. In a muddled AFC West, though, they could find a way to win the division, but I'd trust the other teams in that division first. For this game, although they're on the road against an unknown quantity, I like the Falcons to win by a touchdown or so.

Pick: Falcons win, cover

San Francisco at Green Bay (-4.5)

The 49ers were the surprise team of last year, going 13-3 behind the league's best defense and...well... a lot of David Akers field goals! The offense last year was horribly conservative, going for draw plays on  third and longs instead of trying to, you know, throw it. Basically, they were shielding Alex Smith. Now they've surrounded him with weapons in receivers Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, as well as rookie running back LaMichael James. They have clearly addressed their most glaring need, but it remains to be seen if Alex Smith can become more than a quarterback who doesn't make mistakes. I expect a slight regression for the team, but that defense should be good enough to get them at least a Wild Card. As for the Packers, they ought to be the best in the NFC North again. Aaron Rodgers has assumed the throne as the best QB in the league and the defense can only get better after last year's disaster. In this game, what is surely the game of the week, I think the Packers come out on top. While their offense may be limited somewhat by the 49ers, the 49ers offense is still unproven- who knows if they can outscore even a limited Packers offense? So I'll take the Packers in a close one.

Pick: Packers win, 49ers cover

Carolina (-2.5) at Tampa Bay

The Panthers, led by Cam Newton, were 2011's most entertaining team- but entertainment doesn't get you wins. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, was one of the league's disappointments. While some are lauding the hire of Greg Schiano from Rutgers and calling for a Buccaneers resurgence, I have my doubts. Schiano was never that successful at Rutgers, and is a known disciplinarian. While Jim Harbaugh, another 'tough' cough, had a ton of success last year, how many hard-ass coaches have we seen fail in the NFL? I feel like Schiano could be just like Harbaugh's predecessor in San Francisco, Mike Singletary, who lost all the respect of his team with his stern rules. Plus, it remains to be seen whether this team has a viable QB in Josh Freeman or a solid defense. The Panthers, meanwhile, didn't do much to get better in the offseason, and are hoping that returns from injuries will help them get over the hump. I don't see it yet- Newton struggled over the second half of last season, and might run into trouble again, and the defense still isn't anything special. They'll play in a bunch more shootouts, and maybe get a win or two more, but their division is too tough to make the playoffs. The Panthers might just be a year away. For this game, I'll take them, though, because I have yet to see how the Buccaneers respond to their new coach.

Pick: Panthers win, cover

Seattle (-2.5) at Arizona

People are starting to overload the Russell Wilson bandwagon in Seattle, as the undersized rookie beat out high priced free agent Matt Flynn for the starting job. While I loved the guy in college, I'm hesitant to drink the Kool-Aid. The difference between the regular season and the pre-season is vast, and teams will start to be able to game plan for this guy. He will struggle. Still, the Seahawks were sneaky good at the end of last year, and should be able to compete in a weak NFC West- perhaps for a wild card. The Cardinals, meanwhile, look like a candidate for the worst team in the league. That's what happens when John Skelton, the "developmental" project from Fordham, is named your starter in Week 1. (He was labeled developmental in 2010- and still looks the part today!) The only plus they have is Larry Fitzgerald at receiver (not getting the quarterbacking he deserves) and Patrick Peterson at corner back. Two stars does not a team make. So I like the Seahawks here- the Cardinals look like a tire fire this year.

Pick: Seahawks win, cover

Pittsburgh at Denver (-1.5)

Ah, the return of Peyton Manning. The Broncos found the only way to extricate themselves from the Tebow situation by managing to land one of the best quarterbacks in league history. While it sounds like a dream come true, the signing is tempered by the fact that Manning is coming off four major neck surgeries and has had to regain his arm strength as he recovers- no one knows how he will handle a big hit or if he can throw with the same velocity he had before- pre-season results have been inconclusive. Add in the fact that advanced metrics show that the Broncos were NOT a playoff worthy team last year, and the Manning signing doesn't immediately make the Broncos a Super Bowl team. If Manning plays like the Manning of old, they win the AFC West easily. If not, well, I can't see a below average Manning carrying a below average supporting cast to the playoffs.

The Steelers, on the other hand, seem to be underrated this year- even though I thought they were the best team in the NFL with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. No team could match their mixture of pass attack and solid, turnover producing defense. And, despite that defense getting older, I like this team again. The running game remains a problem, but I still like them in the AFC North (more on the Ravens next). For this game, I like them as well- I just can't believe in Manning yet.

Pick: Steelers win, cover

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)

The Ravens, like the Falcons, are another trendy pick to make the Super Bowl. It's not hard to see why-  they were a dropped Lee Evans pass or missed Billy Cundiff field goal away from the Super Bowl last year. I'm not as high on them as others, though. I'm not sold on Joe Flacco, star NFL QB, yet. Reports from the preseason are praising the new no-huddle offense. But I don't remember the last time a no-huddle offense actually worked in the NFL, besides, of course, the Jim Kelly Bills of the 90s. The Trent Edward/ Terrell Owens Bills tried it out a couple of years ago to little effect. Add in the fact that the Ravens have lost Terrell Suggs for about half the season, and this team might not be as good on either side of the ball. I can pencil them in for a Wild Card spot, but the success of last year might be hard to repeat.

The same goes for the Bengals, who unexpectedly rode Andy Dalton to the playoffs last year. The defense is still stout, but it remains to be seen if the offense can get more dynamic than just "Andy Dalton to AJ Green!" I think they'll regress a bit this year (too many close wins last year) but will be a tough out for many teams, and come close to the playoffs. In this game, the Ravens should be good enough to win, but a seven point spread seems fishy to me.

Pick: Ravens win, cover

San Diego at Oakland (-1)

Last year, before Darren McFadden and  Jason Campbell were injured and the world went to Carson-Palmer-shit for the Raiders, they had established  themselves as a power running team that could beat you deep on the play action, with a nasty defensive front. While the front office has released some overpriced veterans from that group, the identity remains the same, and if McFadden can stay healthy (that's a big if) I like this team to make some noise in the AFC West. The Chargers, meanwhile, may have wasted away their championship window laboring under the horrible coaching of Norv Turner. Phillip Rivers might bounce back from his awful season last year, but the offense lost it's best receiver. Running back Ryan Matthews, while talented, has yet to make it through a season injury free (and he won't this year, as he misses the first game). The defense is still not good enough to keep this team out of shootouts. Either Phillip Rivers puts in a remarkable comeback season, or I don't see this team making the playoffs. Which is a long way of saying, I like a healthy Raiders team in this game- doesn't San Diego always manage to mess up the late Monday Night game?

Pick: Raiders win, cover


Overall: 0-1
ATS: 0-1

Derrick Rose: Before and After

On Saturday morning, I managed to haul myself and all my luggage to the Montreal airport, saying good-bye, good riddance to my freshman dorm room, nearly puking in the cab ride on the way (you can't have a quiet last night in town in Montreal). A couple of hours later, I landed in Chicago and hopped into my Dad's truck, ready to drive back home. As soon as we left the parking garage, Dad flicked on the radio for the Bulls game. Crap, the Bulls game. It was the playoffs already? The shortened season had sped everything up- the playoffs started pretty immediately after the rushed season. Wasn't the All Star Game like a month ago? Well, anyway, the Bulls were on, and they were beating the crap out of the 76ers. It was the second quarter, and Derrick Rose seemed to be playing near his peak- the announcers were already predicting a triple double, as Rose had ten points, six assists and four rebounds.

We got home in time for the second half, and Rose continued to dominate, and the Bulls pulled away in the third quarter. I switched over to Flyers-Devils, and eventually left around three to watch a high school water polo game (note: my old team looked good.) So, while I was gone, I missed the moment where the Sixers made a little run at the end of the game, and Derrick Rose was put back in the game. I missed the part where he drove to the basket, made an awkward move, leapt for yet another lay up, and clutched at his knee in mid air. He grimaced in pain on the ground. He was helped off the floor. I was completely unaware of this, in the dungeon of my high school's pool, but I came home in time to log onto twitter and see the pleas of Bulls fans, hoping that Rose was ok. Not soon after, the Bulls officially released their bombshell- Derrick Rose had torn his ACL and would be out for the playoffs. 

There go the Summer Olympics, for one- and the Olympics were going to be an awesome battle between Rose and Chris Paul for the starting point guard spot on the loaded US team. There goes the Bulls title hopes. The Bulls were able to go 18-9 without Rose this season, but against some crappy teams, working their ass off every night, and not in the playoffs. Sure, they might get past Philadelphia, and could beat Atlanta in the next round, but without a star (or John Lucas III morphing into a star- slow progress so far), this team cannot win a championship. Rose is out. He was banged up all season, but this is a career- changer, something that you can't come back from quickly, and something that may force him to alter his style of play. Rose's whole game has been predicated on his quickness in getting to the basket. As with Chris Paul, who suffered the same injury a couple years ago, Rose will have to deal with his 'new' knee. For Paul, it sapped much of his quickness and forced him to become more of a 'pure' point guard- less drives, more passes. That'll be Rose's challenge as he recovers from this injury.

On Tuesday, the Bulls came out and attempted to rally around Rose's injury and prove they could win without him. They started off well, grabbing a big lead in the second quarter. In the second half, though, their defense started to fall apart (which probably couldn't have been solved by Rose) and their offense stalled, settling for jump shots. They lost by 17. The Bulls don't have a consistent shot maker, and no one can drive with the efficiency of Rose. The Sixers defense simply had to press on the perimeter, and they could shut down the Bulls. Yeah, they could still win this series, maybe the next, but this was not a title team. Rose is out, and so are the Bulls.

I realize I haven't said much about the Bulls this year- but they have been the solid bedrock in what has been a crappy sports year for me. The Cubs were always bad; the Bills started well and fizzled out; the Sabres bottomed out, made an epic comeback run, and then failed right at the end. Through all that, I could always look to the Bulls and say, hey, they're pretty good. This team could contend for the championship. I'll admit it, the NBA is not my favorite league and basketball is not my favorite sport, but the Bulls are the one team I like with a serious chance at a title in the near future (try getting to the playoffs, Bills, Cubs and Sabres). They gutted through a regular season full of injury and got the NBA's best record. Somehow. And they seemed all put together going into the playoffs. There was something to look forward to once I got home. But that all vanished as Rose grabbed his knee in mid-air. It's not fair.  

We're past the point where we can blame Tom Thibodeau for having Rose in the game- as we saw in the  Clippers-Grizzlies game, a comeback was certainly possible. Besides, Rose needed conditioning and crunch time minutes to get him back into playoff shape. There's an argument to be made that the compressed schedule due to the lockout contributed to this injury. I merely think that it accelerated the process.  Rose has always played, seemingly, at the limits of human athleticism. How to explain someone his height, his size, could move so fast, jump so high. He threw himself into the middle of the defense, bouncing off of bodies, twisting through contact in mid air to make another ridiculous lay up, or a thunderous dunk. He got hacked and hit by other players. He played, in a word, bravely, or, perhaps, dangerously. With every drive, he threw himself into a minefield, landing safely after every trip. We often forget that athletes, despite their freakish physical gifts, have bodies just like ours, with finite limitations, things it simply cannot do. Derrick Rose was banged up all season, a body rebelling against itself. His last drive was the tipping point, something stretched and stretched until it finally snapped. If it wasn't in that game, it would've come soon- there was only so much more that he could've taken. Hopefully he comes back and can play at nearly the same level as before the injury, throwing himself towards the basket with the same combination of speed and hops. Maybe he'll be a different player, though, and we'll look back at the first years of his career, Derrick Rose 1.0, who dove into the game till it broke him, irreparably changed his game. 

Trying to Predict the Looming Specter of Buddy Nix and the Buffalo Bills Draft

"Hmmm, What Crazy Thing Could I Do Next?"

Oh, loyal reader(s). I know it's been a while since I've said anything on this blog, or talked about Buffalo sports, or even the Cubs/Bulls. I am sorry to all of you. I've been writing stuff over at mcgilldaily.com, if you want to check it out- and I'll be editing the sports section there next year. And the Sabres season- well, I'll leave that for another post, but suffice to say, things got dark. The Sabres figured that the best way to torture their fanbase was to get really close to the playoffs and then crap the bed. Their play over the last two months was awesome, but, of course, they went ahead and crushed me. And the Cubs, well, they just suck. At least the Bulls have been good.

But we've (and by that, I mean me and my one reader) have gone off topic. After an awful end to the 2011-12 season, the Bills went into free agency as...spenders? As Liz Lemon would say, Whuck? They held Mario Williams in captivity persuaded Mario Williams, the year's biggest defensive free agent and a premier pass rusher, to sign in Buffalo, giving him a huge 100 million dollar+ contract. Now in a 4-3 defense, they still needed another end to bolster the line (because Chris Kelsay, as much of a high character, motor guy as he is, IS AWFUL), so they went out and signed Mark Anderson, a 10 sack end last year for the Patriots. In previous years, the Bills would've just signed Mark Anderson and called it a day. Now, with owner Ralph Wilson opening his pocket book, finally, the Bills are spending to the cap and trying to change the culture of losing in Buffalo. Buffalo, like Green Bay, is always going to be a tough sell to free agents- so they paid a lot for Williams, and showed a commitment to winning.

But now comes the scary part. There are still holes on the team that need addressing in the draft. A good draft this year could really help the Bills get a wild card berth. Problem is, Bills GM Buddy Nix is f*cking crazy. In last year's draft build up, I likened him to Charlie Day in "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia"- the guy who cuts the brakes on the van and yells "WILDCARD, BITCHES! YEE-HAW!" (See, it works because Buddy Nix is southern, too!)

Which is a roundabout way to say that Buddy Nix is capable of ANYTHING on draft day. Sure, last year he went safe and picked Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick. BUT LET'S NOT FORGET that two years ago, he went absolutely bonkers and picked CJ Spiller ninth overall when we already had two quality running backs on the roster. He also likes to pick these players that match his measurables fetish- if a player is just the right height and weight, Buddy falls in love with him.

The Bills have some definite needs to fill. Here they are, in no particular order: OT, CB, WR, LB, OG, QB. Hell, I'd even throw another TE in there, since having another big target would be a boon to the Bills.

Anyway, the Bills sit at pick number 10 at what has been called a "4 player draft" by some. There are no sure things (as much as that can be assumed before a draft) past Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson, or Matt Kalil. The rest of the draft? No one's quite sure on any of the prospects. It's been said that every team from pick three to sixteen wants to trade down. With that kind of desperation, the amount of rumors have been ridiculous. I really wouldn't be surprised at any player being linked to the Bills. Hell, if the draft were a month away, I assume that a report would come out linking the Bills to picking me.

So, the Bills have been linked to tons of players, possibly in an effort for someone to trade up to their pick. With that I'm mind, I'm taking everyone the Bills are 'linked' to selecting at ten and ranking how I would feel about each one.

Guys Who Probably Won't Be There, But If They Are, They've Gotta Take Them

Beast mode.

Matt Kalil, OT, USC
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bills have big needs at all these positions, and these are the best players at each position. Claiborne seems to be a lock for  a pick in the top five. The Vikings, at three, have been linked to Kalil for months now. The Vikings, though, also really want to trade down, and have been trying to drum up interest by saying they might pick Blackmon or Claiborne. They have a really solid OT sitting there, right in front of them, and they are wrinkling their noses at him. Still, if the Vikings pass on Kalil, there's an outside chance he drops to 10, according to some mocks I've seen. Anyway, the Vikings passing on Kalil, or trading the pick for someone to take Trent Richardson before the Browns at four, could drop one of these players to the Bills. Any one of them would be a great pick- Claiborne as a great cover corner, Blackmon as a solid number two across from Stevie Johnson, and Kalil as a solidifying force on the offensive line. In terms of probability, Claiborne has almost no shot to be left at ten, while Blackmon and Kalil have better chances of dropping if all goes right for the Bills.

DEAR GOD NO

Look at this dumb Cowboy.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Look, the Bills could use a quarterback for the future (because Fitzpatrick isn't an elite or even very good quarterback), but it's not worth it to take this guy at number 10. For one, it would be a draft pick that wouldn't fill an immediate hole, making the team no better in the short run. More importantly, Tannehill is simply overrated. Every year the media hypes up one quarterback so much that they get drafted way too high, all in an effort to stoke 'drama' in the drafting process. Quarterbacks are the most popular position, and most important, so the media continues to hype and hype up players. Executives and GMs, under pressure to win as soon as possible, aslo fall into the trap of over-valuing mediocre quarterbacks. That's how Ryan Tannehill has gotten himself into the Top 10 of the draft. He's had barely any college experience at QB (he was converted from WR) and was barely talked about before the draft news cycle began. He's a product of hype, just like Blaine Gabbert last year and Jimmy Clausen (both disasters in the pros so far) before that. If he somehow gets past the Dolphins at eight, I hope to God the Bills pass on him. Not at ten. A quarterback for the future would be nice, but not this guy this early.

Any of the Defensive Line Prospects
A top ten pick, hopefully, is a starter or near-starter by Game 1 of the season. Any of the really good D-Linemen in this year's draft, though, would find themselves in a reserve role. That's not very good value based drafting.

REEEEEACH

Too Bad that #12 fella isn't dropping to ten

David DeCastro, OG, and Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
As much as the Bills could use some depth on their kiddie-pool-shallow offensive line, ten is a little too early for a guard, especially with some good tackles on the board. One of those good tackles is Martin, but he won't even be the best tackle available (probably) when the Bills pick. If the Bills can trade down, then Martin becomes intriguing, but not ahead of Riley Reiff (who we'll talk about in a little bit).

I mean, I guess I'm OK with it

Good, but not necessary- trade bait?

Mark Barron, S, Alabama
Reports have recently surfaced that the Bills are really high on Barron. I'm suspicious of these because it's two days before the draft and this is the first I've heard about the Bills and this guy. Supposedly the Cowboys really want him,  so this could just be the Bills trying to get someone to trade up for their pick. But let's say the Bills really do pick Barron. I mean, safety's not too high on the Bills list of needs, but this guy is a blue-chip safety and would give the Bills some depth in the secondary. In the nickel and dime packages, he could probably come in a guard tight ends and running backs. And that's important against teams like, say, the Patriots. This would be a Best Player Available type pick, and I'm not totally against it, but they could do better.

Could Probably Be Filled in Later Rounds

As you can see, some people are really psyched by this guy

Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
I love Michael Floyd. I'm just gonna go out and say it. He's a big fast receiver who could be a serious deep threat for the Bills. The Bills offense was crippled last year by their lack of a deep threat. And the roster right now has no one to fill that role, unless Marcus Easley makes it to the field and can magically perform as a bona-fide deep threat. Donald Jones, last year's 'deep threat,' is way too small. Sorry. So anyway, getting a player like Floyd would be great for the Bills. I get the feeling, though, that the Bills think they can get a big, speedy deep threat in Round 2- there's Stephen Hill from Georgia Tech, Alshon Jeffery from South Carolina and Rueben Randle from LSU, all who could be available when the Bills pick in the second round. There are other positions of need the Bills could fill at ten. I wouldn't be against it, though, if the Bills pick up solid players at OT/G and CB in later rounds.

I Think You Could Do Better, Buddy, and You Feel The Same Way

Buddy Nix says, "Meh."

Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
There's been much said about Reiff's "short arms" as an indication that he won't be a great offensive tackle in the NFL. Nevermind that Joe Thomas has shorter arms and is a Pro-Bowler. I don't buy that. Reiff, though, projects as a pretty good offensive tackle. Not to say that the Bills couldn't use one of those right now, but there are better options for this pick, and the Bills feel like Chris Hairston can fill in this year at left tackle. It's never a bad idea to go safe, but there are a couple guys that should be available who would fill some holes and would arguably be better pros than Reiff. Buddy Nix, in pre-draft interviews, has basically said as much.

 No Complaints- Great Job Buddy!

Stud.

Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Keuchly is a true three down linebacker, a player who could stay on the field in all situations-the worry with most linebackers is that they might have to come off in passing situations. Kuechly has been touted as a great coverage linebacker as well as tackler. The Bills are penciled in to start Nick Barnett, Kelvin Sheppard and Kirk Morrison at linebacker, and Keuchly could step in over the older, less speedy Morrison immediately as a Weakside Linebacker- well, that's the hope. Still, everything I've seen says that this guy is a safe top ten pick. With Keuchly in the linebacking core, the Bills would further solidify their defensive front seven into one of the better units in the league. No qualms with Kuechly at ten.

One of the two cornerbacks would make me extremely happy as well. Gilmore might not make it past Jacksonville at seven, but if he does, the Bills should snap him up, even ahead of Kuechly. The Bills pass defense has been atrocious for years. Terrence McGee, their nominal number one corner, can't stay on the field due to injuries. Drayton Florence is a decent second corner too often pushed into the number one role. And Leodis "Burnt Toast" McKelvin, for all his speed and occasional big plays, is horrible in single coverage and, as my nickname for him reveals, usually gets burnt by other receivers. Aaron Williams is still a work in progress, but it's hard to see him as better than a second corner. Taking someone like Gilmore or Kirkpatrick could hugely improve Buffalo's passing defense, important in the new pass-happy NFL.

I guess if I had to rank these three, I'd go Gilmore, Kuechly and Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick has had some off the field issues but still projects as a good cornerback. I don't think the Bills could go wrong drafting any one of these guys at ten and plugging them into the starting lineup.

So, to put a nice little bow on it, here's how I see it:


Super Unrealistic Best Case Scenario: Claiborne, Kalil or Blackmon
Best Case Scenario: Gilmore
In between, in order from Best to Worst: Keuchly, Kirkpatrick, Reiff, Floyd, Barron, Martin, DeCastro, D-Line Guys. 
Worst Case Scenario: Tannehill



Well, that about wraps it up. That's every player I think the Bills could seriously take (I guess Cordy Glenn, OT, might be an option, but I think he's more of a trade down target). Just, please, let the Dolphins take Ryan Tannehill, so I can laugh at them.

Hoping to write more in the upcoming month and a half before I go away for the summer. Thanks for reading, random people who decide to read this.