Super Cursed

Super Bowl Super Pick

2012-02-05T09:16:00.000-08:00

Giants "at" Patriots (-3)

The Giants are going to win the Super Bowl.

Oh, you wanted more analysis? Really? During the last two weeks, even as the NFL tried to distract us with the Pro Bowl, there's been the Super Bowl news cycle. One person finds a new story or angle, the rest of the media descends like pirañas and desiccate the corpse, reporting again and again on the same thing. There finally reaches a point of oversaturation, and then begin the jokes about how much we've focused on that one story and reports about the over-reporting, and then it fades away until a couple days later, someone asks, why have we stopped talking about this? And on and on and on it goes until you know way too much about Rob Gronkowski's ankle, even more than his own mother, and Tiquan Underwood goes through his own fifteen minutes of fame right in front of your eyes.

It's exhausting. There is no interesting or novel way to look at this Super Bowl. Every point of analysis has been made twice over, incessantly, debated and refuted. We've reached a negative point, a battle of attrition- there is nothing more to say, both teams have their pros and cons, and can be argued incessantly.

Here's how I see it, and I doubt I'm the only one to have said this. The Giants defense is not miles better than the Patriots defense, but they still have a vastly better, game changing pass rush. The offenses in this case are about equal, especially with Rob Gronkowski being at less than 100% for the Patriots. Both teams will be able to move the ball and score, but when it comes down to it, whose defense are you going to trust more to make the one stop needed to win the game? They're not an elite unit, not even close, but the Giants just have a better personnel group, a better pass rush (which can rattle Brady), and aren't starting Julian Edelman as their third cornerback. The Giants win by more than a field goal, something like 30-24.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Last week: 1-1 Overall, 1-1 ATS
Playoffs: 6-4 Overall, 5-5 ATS

NFL Conference Championship Picks

2012-01-21T15:48:00.000-08:00

Well, here we are facing the penultimate weekend of the NFL season. Oftentimes, these are the best games of the year (even better than the Super Bowl, though we have been blessed with some great Super Bowls these past couple of years)- although it's going to be tough to match last week's bonkers 49ers-Saints matchup. In case you missed it, Alex Smith out dueled Drew Brees in the final two minutes, including an insane touchdown run on a third and short quarterback sweep. Brees responded, but somehow Smith led another drive and hit Vernon Davis for an improbable touchdown, shattering my prediction that if the game came down to quarterback play, it would be Brees who came out on top. The other pick I got wrong was believing in the Packers against the destiny juggernaut that is the Giants, and picking Tebow to cover. Freakin' Tebow. With all that being said, I finished 2-2 Overall and 2-2 ATS, putting me at 5-3 overall and 4-4 ATS. Overwhelmingly decent!

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

I've thought about taking the Ravens here, and have even thought out the arguments why- the Patriots have a horrible defense, and the Ravens horrible offensive showing last week was forced by Houston's suddenly elite defense. The Ravens should be able to put pressure on Tom Brady and move the ball on the Patriots sieve like defense. Unfortunately, should doesn't quite cut it. Joe Flacco has been increasingly decent as the season goes on, becoming more and more of a "don't make any mistakes and we'll win" kind of quarterback. Add on to that Cam Cameron's horrible playcalling, and you have to doubt whether the Ravens will truly be able to take advantage of the awful pass defense of the Patriots. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense truly is elite- but Tom Brady has been outstanding lately. He'll be limited somewhat by this defense, but they won't be able to keep him down for the whole game, and it's unclear whether the Ravens will keep up on the scoreboard. If a team like the Steelers had been fully healthy going into the playoffs (or hadn't defended Tim Tebow idiotically), they could've beat the Patriots, since they have the defense to slow down Tom Brady and the offense to punish their defense. The Ravens are missing one half of that equation.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

New York Giants at San Francisco (-2)

I've gone back and forth on this one too many times. The 49ers have the best defense in the league, while the Giants passing attack and pass rush are among the league's best. The 49ers forced five turnovers last week and still had to score in the final seconds to beat the Saints; the Giants intimidated the Packers physically and forced Aaron Rodgers into a bad game (well, a lot of blame could be put on the Packers receivers, who might find themselves with a Butterfingers sponsorship soon (ba dum pshhh!!! I'm here all night!). But something in me says the Niners are going to win this one. They've got the defense and the run game to be successful in this game, and they've got some motivation now that everyone is jumping on the Giants bandwagon. Plus, they'll be playing in front of a rowdy San Francisco crowd that hasn't been this close to the Super Bowl since the glory days. The Giants are the hot team, the team of destiny, right now- but that wouldn't be a real surprise. The Niners stingy defense and middling offense will take down the Giants. Maybe I'm just saying this because I couldn't stand two weeks of "Giants-Patriots REMATCH!" stories, but it's just a gut feeling. The 49ers, not the Giants, are the 'miracle' team.
Pick: 49ers win, Giants cover (fine, I'm not that confident in this Niners pick).

NBA Olympic Basketball Team: Who's the Worst of the Best?

2012-01-19T19:25:00.000-08:00

The US Men's National Basketball team recently announced their prospective roster for the 2012 Olympics. It's a list of twenty players from the 2008 Olympics "Redeem Team" and 2010's younger World Championship Team who expressed interest in playing in the 2012 Olympics, along with two more players shortlisted in order to bring it all to a nice round number. Before the Olympics, though, the roster has to be pared down to 12 roster players (and six alternates). If you're anything like me, you immediately started thinking about who was going to get cut! So, join me as I go through the roster of twenty and find out which 8 guys aren't quite good enough to make it on perhaps the most talented Olympic team ever (yeah- I said it- watch out Dream Team.)

The No Doubters:

Dwayne Wade: The best player on the Heat (but more on that in a little bit). One of the best defensive players in the league, as well. You're not leaving the best two guard in the world off the roster. As long as he stays healthy, he'll be on the team.

Kobe Bryant: If Kobe were one of the 20 people or so who read my blog, he'd probably be very angry at the part where I said Dwayne Wade was the best two guard in the league, and score fifty points in his game and make a snippy comment about it in the postgame presser. In his continued aping of Michael Jordan, Bryant has taken on Jordan's "intense motivation at tiny slights" act. Right now he's dropping close to 40 a game just to show he still can. Whatever the Germans did to his knees, it's working wonders. No way Bryant misses this one, likely his last chance at playing in the Olympics. (Wait for 2016 when he plays in Rio and, after a game, says, "Evan Dent! You said I wouldn't be here!").

LeBron James: The most physically gifted player in the game. He still has an issue to become too passive at the end of the game--his "Miami mindset"-- and settles for long jump shots instead of driving or posting up. Still, the guy is an athletic freak, the second best player on the Heat, and capable of taking over games when he gets his head right.

Dwight Howard: The best center in the world is going to be on your team, no question. Against a team like Spain, who have the Gasol brothers and Serge Ibaka, Howard's size and interior presence will be key.

Chris Paul/Derrick Rose: You could give either of these guys the title of "best point guard in the NBA" right now. While I personally have Rose as the better player right now- his passing has improved immensely and he outgunned Paul already this season- you can't go wrong with having both on the floor. Paul is playing ridiculously well since his trade to the Clippers. He doesn't have the same quickness as he did before injuring his knee, but he's learned to play exceptionally without that speed. As for Rose, well, he might be the best pure driver in the game, and he's coming off an MVP season. No way he's not on the top six for this team. The battle between Paul and Rose for minutes during the Olympics will be fascinating to watch.

Kevin Durant: The best pure scorer in the game (although Carmelo Anthony is close). Durant can score from nearly anywhere on the floor and also has the freaky athleticism to play the four in case the US decides to play small.

Chris Bosh- There aren't very many natural power forwards on the roster, which makes Bosh a near lock for a spot. On a team like this, he'll be the fourth or fifth option on the floor at any time, which is a perfect role for him. Great pick and pop shooter who can also run the pick and roll.

Carmelo Anthony: A less versatile scorer than Durant, but fills the same role. He'll be playing valuable minutes off the bench, and can fill in the two or the three spot.

By my count, that's nine guys who should unquestionably on the team, which leaves three spots left on the main roster, guys who will fill important bench positions, creating a just as dangerous second unit. These are the guys who give Coach K versatility all over the court.

Rounding Out the Twelve

Tyson Chandler: When you absolutely, positively need a stop inside, you're bringing in Chandler. Imagine a defense with Howard and Chandler down low- it'll be nearly impossible to score inside, which will be valuable against a team like Spain.

LaMarcus Aldridge: He's quietly evolved into a near elite player in the NBA. With a paucity of true power forwards on the list, he should be in as Bosh's backup. His ruthlessly efficient jump shot should come in handy.

The last spot is tricky. I could make a compelling argument for about five players in this spot. I'm going with a gut feeling here on who should be the last guy- Andre Iguodala. Previously known for insane dunks, Iguodala has become one of the best defensive small forwards in the league. Plus, he can fill in for the two and three spot- versatility that offers depth as well. His role on this team should be in the same vein as Chandlers- a pure defensive stopper who can help a little on the other end. Add him to the Chandler-Howard lineup down low, and it's near impenetrable. On the 2008 roster, Tayshaun Prince filled nearly the same role- why not add this same type of player again?

Six Alternates: The Not Quite Ready for Primetime Players

Blake Griffin: As much as adding him to this team would make it the most exciting team ever, he still doesn't have the defensive skills or offensive retinue to warrant inclusion on the 12 man roster. 2016, though, he should be there.

Russell Westbrook: He may well get the last spot over Iguodala just to add more point guard depth. He is one of the top five point guards in the league athletically, but still struggles with knowing when to take over the game and when to defer and pass to his superstar teammate (and on a team like this, he'd have about four on the court at all times). Still, his rebounding prowess could get him on the 12 man roster. I like Iguodala better in that spot, but to each their own.

Kevin Love: The guy is a rebounding machine and has the ability to play the three or the four (and spread the floor with his three point shooting), but he's not that great a defender overall. With a talented crop of big men already on the roster, I wouldn't take him over Aldridge or Chandler. After Westbrook, he's the next most likely to be on the twelve man roster instead of my pick.

Deron Williams: If he wasn't playing so listlessly this season, he'd be in over Westbrook, but he's had major struggles this season and isn't playing up to his potential. Maybe he'll turn it on during the training camp, but right now he's nowhere near above an alternate. Also unfortunate for him is the emergence of Rose and Westbrook since 2008, when Williams was the 2nd/3rd point guard on the Olympic team.

Lamar Odom: He's a great versatility guy, and played exceptionally well at the World Championships. He's having similar problems to Williams though- he's in an extended funk since being traded. Besides, the 3/4 group on this roster is stacked; it'll be tough for him to get into the top twelve without an amazing training camp.

Eric Gordon: The best young two guard in the game, but, unfortunately has to compete against Hall of Famers in Wade and Bryant. Tough to see him on the team unless they really want two guard depth.

Stuck in No Man's Land between Cuts and Alternates

Rudy Gay: He's a great defender and a pretty good scorer, and you could certainly put him on the alternate squad based on that- but he seems to be a victim of the numbers game at this point. I see a cut for either Gordon or Gay, and Gay hasn't been quite himself since last season's injury.

The Easiest Decision to Make: Cut

Chauncey Billups: It's pretty hard to make a case for why Billups should be on this team. He's old, no longer the great three point shooter he was, and frequently stops the flow of the offense. He was good as a fill in for the World Championships, but this is the end of the line.

My final lineup:
Starters- Rose/Paul, Wade, James, Bosh, Howard.
Bench: Bryant (though he could start over Wade), Durant, Anthony, Aldridge, Chandler, Iguodala.
Alternates: Westbrook, Love, Griffin, Williams, Odom, Gordon
Cuts: Gay, Billups.

Small lineup: Rose/Paul, Wade, James, Durant, Howard (or even Bosh at center)
Defensive lineup: Rose/Paul, Iguodala, James, Chandler, Howard

Hell, the bench unit on this team- Rose/Paul, Bryant, Durant, Aldridge and Chandler- could probably win Gold. So I'd say the Dream Team is going to be given a run for its' money.

The "New Season" for the Buffalo Sabres

2012-01-14T11:03:00.000-08:00

Your MVP so far.

Last night, Terry Pegula emerged from what I assume is his rich billionaire cave and discussed the Sabres season. He blamed the injuries on the team's middling record so far and expected a turnaround. There's been talk that Pegula will force wholesale changes if the Sabres don't live up to their expectations for the rest of the season. This is a team with a top five payroll in the league. This is a team expected to make the playoffs, not sit at 11th halfway through the season. This is a team that Pegula wants winning a Stanley Cup. Not next year, not in five years, but now, as soon as possible. Pegula then exhorted the players of his organization: from here on out, this is a new season.

And it better be. The first half of the season, the "old" season, has been infuriating. A plague of injuries hit the team, with almost every player on the roster having missed time at one point, causing a slew of call ups and line changes which have disturbed any chemistry that might've been brewing. So we got a team with no identity, no idea what it wanted to be or how it should play. Even worse, the core players besides Thomas Vanek (who is a total stud and should be at the All Star Game) and Jason Pominville (who is going to the All Star Game, and who I fear might be picked last at the All Star draft.) But Derek Roy, Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis, Tyler Myers, Ville Leino and Nathan Gerbe, when not injured, have all disappointed immensely. These guys were supposed to be the depth of the team, with any one of them pitching in a goal or two on any given night. But no. Derek Roy has been bad enough to become the new scapegoat of the team, impressively beating out Ville Leino. The guys over at Dear God Why Us Sports agreed that they'd trade Derek Roy for a McRib. It was hilarious to see a ESPN trade rumors column in which they said that the Sabres are dangling Derek Roy- but nobody, I mean nobody wants him. All the wishful thinking that the Sabres might pull the trigger for Ryan Getzlaf or some other high end center has been tamped down by the fact that the Sabres don't have that many high end players to trade. To add to the troubles, Ryan Miller has become a shell of his former self on most nights. He can occasionally make vintage, amazing saves, but he is also getting beat badly on some shots that used to be routine. And the efforts of the team are mismatched enough such that Miller will play a great game and the team won't score, or Miller will play badly and the team will score, but not enough. All this has led to a team that plays just well enough to lose closely on most nights, grabbing an overtime loss or spare win here or there. It's been awful to watch a team that's basically the same as last year's playoff squad limp so horribly throughout the season. A hot start to the season is what has kept the Sabres at or around .500 this season.

And now, at .500, the new season begins. Last night, the Sabres jumped out to a two goal lead on the Leafs behind scoring from Matt Ellis (!!!) and Paul Gaustad, the kind of production you need from secondary sources. A goofy bounce off the back boards led to a rebound goal for the Leafs, and they tied it up after Mike Weber tripped up in his own zone and gave the Leafs a 3 on 1. (On a side note, our defense has been great at giving other teams chances this season. Besides Regehr and Leopold, they've been horrible. And sometimes, even Regehr or Leopold makes a back breaking mistake.) Two goals that are hard to pin fully on Miller. The Sabres didn't buckle though; they just kept playing their game, as the two teams stalled from that point on. But late in the second, Vanek and Pominville stepped up. If you give them a chance to win the game, they can. Vanek was skating down towards the corner with the puck, saw Pominville open on the other side of the net, and threaded a ridiculous pass through the crease and two defenders to a wide open Pominville. There's your winning goal, brought to you by the transcendence of our two best players. From that point on, the defense clamped down, Miller made some key saves, and the Sabres got an ugly, but much-needed win. The team we've seen all season would give up that lead, and either lose in regulation on a last minute goal or go into overtime, make a dumb mistake, and lose. But they held on. Now they're back at .500, 19-19-5. The new season begins. They're five points out of 8th with 39 games to play. They just need to keep winning, stringing together some back to back wins, and move up. Create pressure. Play like the team that they're capable of being. If they can't, then it might be time to blow up the core and start over. But last night was a start.

I'm not saying that the Sabres are now headed, inextricably, for a playoff spot, but there has to be some momentum, some forward motion. A trip to the Islanders, a bottom feeder of the Eastern Conference, is another test. A loss here is same-old-Sabres of this season, can't win back to back, can't beat a team they should. A win, though, is another step forward, embarking on their new season, to the good, Cup contending team that we think is hidden under this current iteration. A new season, another chance, a last gasp. Here's hoping the Sabres go boldly into the new season.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

2012-01-13T12:28:00.000-08:00

We are heading to the twilight of the NFL season, with 32 teams whittled down to four, and a precious three weeks of games remaining. Well, four if you count the Pro Bowl (and if you do, I just feel bad for you.) That's seven games of football left before the offseason, where we'll sigh and wish we could be watching a Browns game. It gets that bad. So let's carpe diem these last three weeks and enjoy the beauty of playoff football. Last week I went 3-1 overall on my playoff picks and 2-2 against the spread. Hopefully it gets better this week!

New Orleans (-4) at San Francisco

The Saints have been arguably the best team in the NFL in the second half of the season. Since a perplexing Week 9 loss to the Rams (which was preceded, anyway, by a 62-7 thumping of the Colts), the Saints have won eight straight games while putting at least 22 points on the board in every game. In five of those games, they scored 40 or more points. Still, all their "weaker" performances on that stretch and during the season have come on the road, where the conditions are not quite as hospitable as in the Superdome. The offense is a juggernaut, with threats at every skill position. On grass, though, their aren't quite as efficient or impeccable. The 49ers offense is almost entirely predicated on kicking field goals; and when on third and long, they choose to play it safe and run instead of putting the game on Alex Smith's shoulders. Against elite defenses, this will lead to a loss, as seen in the 49ers Thanksgiving loss to the Ravens. The Saints, however, have far from an elite defense. Their scheme, predicated on blitzes and turnovers, isn't producing the way it did in their Super Bowl season. The 49ers defense, on other hand, is elite, with a talented crop of linebackers and a great defensive line. They can stop the run (which was instrumental to the Saints success last week) and have a solid secondary.

All that is a long winded way of saying: I have no idea how this game is going to go. The last time I though the 49ers would lose to a superior offense, they went out and beat the Giants 27-20. Still, you have to worry about an offense that so routinely settles for field goals against an offense like the Saints, which can easily put up forty points. In a match up like this, where I see great offense vs. great defense, the current league is set up to reward the offense. The Saints have the momentum and the better quarterback; and no matter how dominant the 49ers have been on defense for the season, I can't see them shutting out the Saints, and I can't see Alex Smith leading a game winning drive. It'll be closer than the Saints would like, and they won't hit 40, but they have the tools to come through in the clutch, while the 49ers will need to get ahead early and stay ahead- tough to do when you're putting field goals on the board.
Pick: Saints win, 49ers cover

Denver at New England (-13.5)

The Patriots need to win so that it all ends. Incessant Tebow-mania is ruining sports media. I spent the week hoping that the Elias Sports Bureau would alter the stats so that Tebow would have more or less than 316 yards passing so that this asinine "John 3:16 is his favorite bible verse!!! WHAT A SIGN!" nonsense could end.As Will Leitch tweeted:"Ordinarily, watching sports and reading about those sports provide me almost equal measures of pleasure. Tim Tebow is the marked exception.This absurdity needs to end. Tebow is not a referendum on religion in this country. He is not some miracle weaver. He represents something different to everybody, and therefore represents nothing. He is not special in any way besides being an average mechanical quarterback with a knack for beating 4th quarter defenses or the Steelers extremely misguided defensive plans. They let Tebow have the deep ball with one on one coverage. The problem Tebow has isn't with throws like that, where it's a chuck to a general place that lets the receiver get to it; it's in the true NFL style throws where the ball must be put into a tight window, where accuracy is paramount. He can't make those throws. But hucking it deep? Sure. As long as the Patriots don't treat Tebow like the worst player in the kickball game, they should be able to limit him as they did in their last meeting. The Denver defense isn't as elite as it was when Tebow began his run, and the Patriots should be able to pick it apart once again. The Patriots have a terrible, terrible defense, but their offense should be enough to make up for any trouble Tebow might give them. With that, the coverage can be at least lessened. Because it will never die.
Pick: Patriots win, Broncos cover (what, you thought I would bet against Tebow again? Have to hedge, in case this somehow gets worse.)

Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)

This is the least compelling of the divisional games. The Texans beat a limping Bengals team last week in their first ever playoff game. Props to them; Arian Foster played exceptionally well, and TJ Yates didn't do so poorly at quarterback. Unfortunately for the Texans, they now travel to play the Ravens, whose defense is leagues better than the Bengals. The only worry the Ravens might have is their offense, which has been wildly inconsistent and lags when they decided to lean on Joe Flacco. The Texans have an impressive defense, but might wilt under the pressure of winning this game for the Texans. If the Ravens stick to a game plan heavy on Ray Rice and play the solid defense they've played all year, they should win easily. This is the playoffs, and the Ravens will be playing up for this one (since all year they've played up or down to their opponents). The Ravens might be the most complete team in the AFC field, and I like them here.
Pick: Ravens win, cover

NY Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

There are plenty of people jumping on the Giants bandwagon here, seeing them as a trendy upset pick of the dominant Packers. I can't join on board. The Packers have one of the worst defenses of all time, but still have the potential to create timely turnovers every game. And their offense? Well, if the back up QB can pilot them to 45 points, without their number one receiver (Greg Jennings), you know you have a special unit. The Giants have the ability to put obscene amounts of pressure of Aaron Rodgers due to their ever-formidable offensive line; but their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. Rodgers is particularly adept at avoiding pressure (unlike, say, Tom Brady) and can throw with ridiculous accuracy even on the run. The Packers offense will be able to score, no doubt. The Giants boast a great passing attack as well, but are more prone to turnovers on offense. This game should be a shootout, with two teams trading points. And while the Giants should be able to get some stops with the pass rush, the Packers should be able to get at least a turnover, and maybe some stops, and let Aaron Rodgers do his work. This will be a battle of attrition, and, in the end, Aaron Rodgers will simply have too much firepower for the Giants to keep up with.
Pick: Packers win, Giants cover

Playoffs: 3-1 Overall, 2-2 ATS

BCS National Championship Live Blog

2012-01-09T17:31:00.000-08:00

To be honest, I've barely watched any college football this year. While the NFL has a little bit of a foothold in Canada, college football is an afterthought...So why not do a live blog? Here goes, game of the century, take two.

11:31- Another LSU drive fails, Alabama takes over, and Alabama runs out the clock. Let's never hype up a game ever again- both of these "Game of the Century"'s were awful. Yes, both the defenses are immensely talented units, and Alabama was fantastic in executing and shutting down LSU. But there was no excitement- only two turnovers forced, a sack fumble with the game pretty much out of reach and a baffling mistake by Jefferson for a pick. The rest of it was ruthless efficiency by the defense and poor, poor offense by LSU. It's impressive, but not exciting, and not compelling. LSU's offense was bafflingly bad, hardly befitting a number one team. Alabama's offense was methodical and able to get into field goal range. That made the difference in this game. There wasn't one play that decided it- it was a slow drip, a bloodletting, and LSU slowly died. A game without flash or panache. An entirely soulless National Championship. Roll Tide, Roll.

11:20- Holy crap! A touchdown! (of course the kicker misses the extra point). Richardson makes a great play, busting out to the outside and then turning on the jets to take it to the endzone, which was once foreign territory to these teams. That's the undeniable kill shot as Alabama goes up 21-0. LSU is pretty much playing for pride and to not be shut out, at this point.

11:13- LSU is forced to go for it on 4th and long and they are stripped of the ball by the suffocating Tide defense. At this point, Alabama's got this game in the bag. But should LSU be number two? Sure, they had a great season, but they've ruined it with this showing. Oklahoma State is going to get a lot of votes for #2 and for a split national championship. Still, the BCS continues, money making machine that it is. The Plus One is the only system they might bring in, and even that seems far off. Maybe a game as poor as this one will spur some change, but it's doubtful.

11: 08- LSU crossed the 50! LSU crossed the 50! Oh my God! With a touchdown, this is a game....

11:04- LSU defense does what they need to do, forcing a punt. Now let's see if LSU can triumphantly cross over the 50 yardline. Honey Badger's return gets two bad puns from Brent Musberger.

10:59- I didn't even watch that last possession, just listened; and I didn't really need to, because it was almost a foregone conclusion that LSU would have to punt. The defense is so good, too good, so that watching is unnecessary. The BCS needs a plus one so we could see this defense against a capable offense with a real quarterback.

10:50- Another field goal puts Alabama up 15-0 as we approach the 4th quarter. LSU needs to score on this drive, pronto. Alabama's defense has been amazing- less than 100 yards given up, total. Alabama has shown they deserved to be here; it's LSU that's crapped the bed. Oklahoma State-Alabama would be a great game. As much as this defense is amazing, it's not fun to watch. Any contrarian who tries to say otherwise is just trying to seem like a 'better' football fan, sorry to say.

10:47- So close to a touchdown, but there's a dropped pass for Alabama, after getting the ball back from yet another three and out. Getting near the end zone must have been weird for the receiver, so I can see why he dropped it.

10:41- Alabama's kicker misses another kick, giving LSU another shot. But it's never a good sign when your quarterback gets booed coming onto the field, and you haven't gotten past midfield all day. LSU did a worse job recruiting their quarterbacks than Alabama did, and that's saying something.

10:34- What in the hell was that pitch by Jordan Jefferson? Lee needs to be in this game, yesterday. Alabama gets another shot to go up 15 or 19, both seemingly insurmountable at this point.

10:31- Alabama had a chance to put the game out of reach, but they falter, with AJ McCarron missing on another deep throw, although he was on the run and in an awkward throwing position. Still, this punt keeps LSU in it. LSU needs to score; they can't just keep hoping to hang around, waiting for someone like Mathieu to make a play- they need to go out, execute, and score, as soon as possible.

10:23- An initially promising LSU drive gets them as far as the 50 yard line, and a punt. A penalty on the punt return gives Alabama better field position. A touchdown in this case would be a dagger; another field goal puts the Tide right at the threshold at putting this game out of reach. LSU could (and I stress, could) muster two touchdowns (and a two point conversion), if they start executing more consistently; three touchdowns, at this point, would be miraculous.

10: 15- Coming out of the half, Alabama marches down the field to... a stall within the red zone! Another field goal makes it 12-0 Alabama. LSU has to do something on this drive, anything to give them some momentum in this game- it's slipping away, especially as Alabama's offense continues to be able to move down the field.

9:48- Halftime! 9-0! I'm going to keep reading Henrik Ibsen's The Wild Duck. University life is wonderful. LSU is going to have to make some huge adjustments to win this game. A touchdown by Alabama would put it away. Any touchdown that's scored will change this game. We're just waiting, waiting for one score to alter this game for either team. Still, big half for Alabama.

9:44- The way Brent Musberger says "Honey Badger" is hilarious. He said it half seductively. "The Honey....BADger." Calm down. Alabama maneuvers themselves into field goal range. Alabama scores more in the first half of this game than the last game of the century, and a 9-0 lead is huge- LSU would have to manage to score at least a touchdown and a field goal while keeping the Alabama offense at bay in order to win this game.

9:40- Once again, the LSU offense stalls. Jordan Jefferson is a fantastic athlete, but not a quarterback that can beat Alabama- as are most college quarterbacks. McCarron brings back the Alabama offense to see if they can get some points before halftime; a field goal, perhaps?

9:31- An impressive drive by Alabama, but they once again stall in the red zone- the LSU defense is just too good. As long as we're settling for field goals, this game is going to stay close. They way they've been playing doesn't reflect the score- Alabama has been miles better so far. 6-0 Alabama.

9:21- LSU can't capitalize on the blocked field goal. So far, LSU has no answer to the Alabama defense. They might need the Honey Badger to go off to get in this game.

9:16- The fake field goal was all for naught, as Alabama stalls in three plays, and then their field goal is BLOCKED. A missed kick? In this game? Wow!

9:10- Alabama is taking my "save Trent Richardson" advice a little too much to heart. And then, on the field goal attempt, FAKE!!!! Alabama gets the 1st down by the nose of the football, but it's under review. Still, you gotta love a fake field goal. One of my favorite plays in football.

9:08- McCarron overthrows a wide open receiver deep. Yikes.

9:03- Watching AJ McCarron, I feel like Nick Saban doesn't try so hard when recruiting for quarterback. Sure, he's good, but he doesn't seem "Alabama" good- a prestige program should have a prestige quarterback, but instead they have prestige running backs and defense. Anyway, Norwood makes a big catch on an underthrown McCarron throw to put the Crimson Tide on the 38 yard line to start the second quarterback. Ballsy move by Alabama to commit so heavily to the pass- perhaps saving Richardson for the second half to wear down LSU's defense?

8:57- Alabama's lost their best receiver and punt returner, which is a bad omen. Lucky for them, their defense is still ridiculously good. I wish I could trade the Bills defense for this one.

8:50- Alabama stalls in the red zone. Their kicker actually manages to make it, giving us a 3-0 start to the game. A field goal. Who woulda thunk it? I don't know if the officials are going to do if someone actually crosses the goal line in this game.

8:42- Whenever they say "big boy football," I nearly lose it. Reminds me of this clip:

Which my friend Paul does so wonderfully. Anyway, that was a huge return for Alabama. Field goal time, at least.

8:41- Alabama gains valuable field position, but fear the honey badger too much to punt it to him. Field position is going to be Kirk Herbstreit's buzzword, I can tell.

8:37- Full disclosure, I'm rooting for Alabama because: I made a ten dollar bet on the game last night, I love the phrase "roll tide," and I'd love a three point Alabama win to cause BCS PANDEMONIUM.

8:32- Ha! Just kidding. Three and out. After the first edition of this game, most derided it as an overhyped snoozefest with no offense. There was a group of football purist contrarians who said they loved the game. Are you kidding me? Great defense is only exciting for so long; I need a breakthrough, a sustained moment of offensive brilliance against a great defense to have a compelling game.

8:31- Kickoff goes to LSU. Will we see the first touchdown between these two teams?

NFL Wildcard Picks

2012-01-07T13:38:00.000-08:00

Finally, the playoffs are here, so I don't have to worry about the Buffalo Bills anymore. Especially after they finished their season with a classic punch in the gut game. Even when they were up 21-0, somehow I knew they would lose. And it still sucked to watch. I finished the season with an 11-5 overall week and a 6-9-1 ATS record, after a Week 16 total of 9-7 Overall/ 8-8 ATS. For the whole season, I was 168-88 overall and 124-126-5 ATS (all figures approximate). Dang. My overall picks were good, but still couldn't go above .500 against the spread. Well, better luck next year, and in the playoffs. Wild Card playoff games are always good- you know something crazy is going to happen (see: Seahawks over Saints last year).

Cincinnati at Houston (-4)
We've got two rookie quarterbacks here, with the threat of Jake Delhomme (or Jeff Garcia!) looming for the Texans. As much as that should be the equivalent of playoff suicide for the Texans, they've lucked out in facing the Bengals, this year's quintessential "luck of the schedule Gods" team. The Bengals haven't beat a playoff team this year- with a loss to the Tebow-less Broncos, two apiece to the Ravens and Steelers, a close loss the 49ers, and a loss to the Texans earlier. If you have to find their "best" win, it's either their win over the Titans or a win over the Bills-when-they-were-good. The Texans, despite being on a little slide into the playoffs, have the rushing attack and a hopefully healthy Andre Johnson, and a defense that is still near elite even without Mario Williams. The Bengals have the better rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton, but the worse overall offense and defense. I expect the Bengals to be able to hang around in this game, thanks to AJ Green, but to actually win this game? They haven't done it yet, so why believe it now?
Pick: Texans win, Bengals cover

Detroit at New Orleans (-10.5)
You're not beating New Orleans at home. Sorry. Drew Brees is too efficient and ridiculously good at home, and he ended the season in MVP form. The Lions have a great offense (even without any semblance of a run game), but their defense doesn't have the chops to stop an elite offense. For instance, we'll take last week, when the Lions gave up 480 yards and 6 touchdowns to Matt Flynn, the Packers backup QB. This is Drew Brees' turn, and he should be able to put up numbers as good. The only reason I can't pick the Saints to win and cover is their porous, turnover dependent defense isn't going to completely hold down Calvin Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Something like 45-35 seems right to me- not close, but close enough for a Lions cover.
Pick: Saints win, Lions cover.

Atlanta at NY Giants (-3)
Have you ever sat back and said "Wow, those Falcons sure are good!" No, you haven't. They're a consistent team that are better than most of the NFL, but against great teams, great defenses or on the road, they never jump out at you. In essence, this is a team that can get you to the playoffs, but I could never see them as Super Bowl Champions. The Giants rollercoaster-ed their way through the season, peaks and valleys. They've finished the season peaking, winning the must-win, high pressure games with panache. They have a QB in Eli Manning who flirts with elite status and has a knack for 4th quarter, game winning or game-icing drives, and a dangerous wide receiver group. The defense rushes the passer so well; Matt Ryan should be getting ready to become quite cozy with the cold New York turf. The Giants defense is nothing special against the pass, and their run game won't blow anyone away, but their best is better than the Falcons best. Add in home field advantage and I see the Giants taking it over the good-but-never-great Falcons.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Denver
You can't have honestly watched the last three weeks and confidently pick the Broncos. The Bills- THE BILLS- were able to hold the Broncos to 14 points and pick off Tebow 3 times (plus a interception that was changed into a fumble). Last I checked, my 8th grade flag football team could score 21 against the Bills. He threw for 60 yards against the Chiefs. That's in four quarters. Simply put, teams have figured him out. You don't blitz him too much (or else he'll run), cover everyone, let him stay in the pocket, and keep a spy on him in case he rolls left to throw. In addition, the defense has lost some of their stinginess- they aren't quite as dominant. The Steelers have a crippled Ben Roethlisberger at QB, their main running back tore his ACL, and their leading tackler can't play because of sickle cell anemia. Despite all this, their defense is good enough to stop Tebow and the Broncos- in fact, they're more than good enough. And even if the Broncos put in Brady Quinn (Tebow has a short leash this week), it would be laughably not enough to beat the Steelers. The Steelers offense doesn't have to be great to win this- they just have to be decent, and Peg-Leg Roethlisberger should be able to put together something. Seeing as the Steelers are so hampered, though, I'm hedging and saying the Broncos can stay within a touchdown.
Pick: Steelers win, Broncos cover

Week 17 New Years Picks

2012-01-01T10:13:00.000-08:00

Eagles (-7.5) at Redskins
Building teams through free agency: you're doing it wrong. Either way, the Eagles have more talent all over the field than the Redskins. In a meaningless game, that's what I'm going with.
Pick: Eagles win, cover

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-9)
Atlanta still has something to play for, while the Buccaneers have redefined the word "fluke" with their performance this year after going 10-6 last year.
Pick: Falcons win, cover

San Francisco (-11.5) at St. Louis
San Francisco is playing for a first round bye. The Rams are close to the Number One pick in the draft. Not hard to figure this one.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Chicago at Minnesota (-2.5)
Josh McNown was slightly better than Caleb Hanie last week for the Bears. That sentence alone can pretty much sum up the dark turn the Bears season has taken. The Vikings, even without Adrian Peterson, have been playing better under Joe Webb lately.
Pick: Vikings win, cover

Detroit (-6.5) at Green Bay
Tough to figure this one, but with the Packers second stringers in for a good portion of the game, and with seeding possibilities for the Lions (they could avoid the Saints and play the Giants or Cowboys), I've got the Lions winning a close one.
Pick: Lions win, Packers cover

Dallas at NY Giants (-3)
The Giants finally seem to have screwed their heads on right, and in that mode, they're a dangerous team. The Cowboys lost their running game with DeMarco Murray's broken ankle, and you still can never trust Tony Romo, especially with an injury.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Carolina at New Orleans (-7)
Saints could be sitting guys by the second half of this one, but their first half effort should be enough to take the game- and who knows, the starters might be in the whole game. Cam Newton and the Panthers can keep it close, though.
Pick: Saints win, Panthers cover

Tennessee (-1) at Houston
The Texans are challenging last year's Seahawks as "worst division winner in the playoffs" now that all their playmakers are injured. TJ Yates isn't cutting it. Titans have a lot to play for, and seem like they could be the crappy sixth seed of this year's playoffs-meaning they'd play the Texans again.
Pick: Titans win, cover

Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati
The Ravens play down to their opponents on the road, especially against physical teams. The Bengals are at home (offering two for one tickets!) and play especially physically. Andy Dalton is taking them to the playoffs! (Words I never thought I'd say.)
Pick: Bengals win, cover

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland
Steelers still have a shot at a first round bye. The Browns are still terrible.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3)
The Colts should be able to fulfill their manifest destiny and clinch the number one overall pick. The Jaguars are probably really happy with the Blaine Gabbert pick right now.... (laughter)
Pick: Jaguars win, Colts cover

NY Jets at Miami (-3)
The Dolphins! They're definitely good enough to beat the overrated, overhyped Jets. I swear, if the stars align and the Jets are in the playoffs, I'm going to have a conniption fit.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover

Buffalo at New England (-10.5)
It would be awesome if the Bills found a way to sweep the Patriots this year and somewhat redeem what has been a trainwreck of a season. Unfortunately, they'll probably close out the season with another grim loss.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

San Diego at Oakland (-3)
This must be the most underachieving Chargers team of the past decade, and that's saying something. The Raiders are somehow still alive, and there would be nothing better than seeing Carson Palmer screw up a home playoff game with three interceptions.
Pick: Raiders win, cover

Kansas City at Denver (-2)
The Chiefs were able to shut down Aaron Rodgers; Tim Tebow was shut down by the Bills and Patriots, two of the worst defenses in the league. The Chiefs should be able to take care of Tebow and let Kyle Orton get his revenge.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover

Seattle at Arizona (-2.5)
Seattle figured out that they're a running team and rode Marshawn Lynch to near playoff contention. Arizona rode John Skelton to near playoff contention. I've gotta give it to Beast Mode here.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover

Week 16 Christmas Picks

2011-12-23T21:03:00.000-08:00

Another in a series of Sad Fitz photos

Merry Christmas, y'all. I'm writing this one from the heart of Dolphins country, South Florida. The weather's nice, and the team is better than the Bills. Buffalo really is cursed. Once again, missed the Thursday Night Pick. Would've gone Texans win, Colts cover, so at least I got an ATS win. As for the last two weeks (I forgot to tally up the Week 14 picks), 13-3 Overall and 7-9 ATS for Week 14; 9-7 overall and 6-9-1 ATS for Week 15. Yikes against the spread, folks, but at least I can pick winners.

Oakland at Kansas City (-2.5)
Oakland's gone through a horrible slide and their bet that they could make the playoffs with Carson Palmer is looking like a huge mistake. Good thing this team won't have a number one pick for the next two years to get any better! As for the Chiefs, they just beat the Packers and have some serious momentum under Romeo Crennel (yes, I was very wrong about him last week. The Chiefs definitely hated Todd Haley). The AFC West is basically a crapshoot, so, of course, the Chiefs will take this one to further muddle the picture.
Pick: Kansas City wins, covers

Denver (-2.5) at Buffalo
Do you really think Tim Tebow is going to lose on the eve of the birth of his savior? Do you really think the Bills can compete against the Broncos' great running game and defense? Absolutely not. It might not be pretty, but the Broncos should win pretty easily. The only way this would not happen is if the Bills pulled a classic 'Bills' move and won out and got a worse draft pick because of it. (*long, exasperated sigh on behalf of all Bills fans). Still, losing seems more likely.
Pick: Broncos win, cover

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)
The Titans just lost to the Colts last week and they're getting seven over a just as good Jaguars team? Sorry, can't trust the Titans to comfortably win this one. The Jacksonville defense is good enough to hamper a middling Titans offense for long enough in the game to keep it close. The Jaguars just won't be able to win because of Blaine Gabbert's bad quarterbacking, throwing to the worst corps of receivers in the league.
Pick: Titans win, Jaguars cover

Arizona at Cincinnati (-4.5)
The Bengals have faded a bit since their hot start, as their schedule has become increasingly difficult. The Cardinals have gone on a mini run to get back into longshot playoff contention behind proto-Tebow John Skelton. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they're away from home, and the Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives and are overall a better team. It'll stay close, but I like the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals win, Cardinals cover

Miami at New England (-9.5)
New England's been great this season, what with their fancy two tight end offense that masks their terrible defense. But I love the Dolphins- Reggie Bush is finally living up to his potential, Matt Moore has a weird connection with Brandon Marshall, and the defense is very good. I like the Patriots to take this by sheer dint of their offense, but I think the Dolphins will make it pretty interesting.
Pick: New England wins, Miami covers

Cleveland at Baltimore (-12.5)
The Ravens have a chance to clinch their division this week, and the Browns are still the Browns: nothing to see here. The Ravens have had a terrible habit of playing down to opponents, but were able to smack down the Browns last time they played, so I'm hesitantly picking the Ravens to cover as well as win.
Pick: Ravens win, cover

NY Giants "at" NY Jets (-3)
I hate both these teams, picks wise, because they are maddeningly inconsistent. I guess I'll pick based on either team's best possible performance; and in that case, I like the offense of the Giants and their pass rushing defense better than the Jet's ground and pound offense and not-as-good-as-the-hype defense.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Minnesota at Washington (-7)
The Redskins have made something of their previously doomed season behind the resurgence of Rex Grossman and a slightly better running game. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson back, though, and the Redskins aren't great on defense, so I see the Redskins victimizing the Viking's poor pass defense and the Vikings making a game out of it before ultimately losing.
Pick: Redskins win, Vikings cover

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-7.5)
While Tampa Bay has been pretty bad this season, the Panthers haven't been nearly good enough for me to trust them with 7.5 points. It should be a close battle between these two NFC South also-rans, and I like Cam Newton and the Panthers to win, but the Bucs will stick around.
Pick: Panthers win, Buccaneers cover

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-12.5)
Charlie Batch always comes in and plays decently for the Steelers, and that should be quite enough against the Rams, who have been the most disappointing team of the season. Remember when we all thought the Rams would take the NFC West? Ha!
Pick: Steelers win, cover

San Diego at Detroit (-2)
I wish I wasn't getting tricked into another Chargers late season run, but here they are, and here I am, picking them to beat a Lions team that only has a playoff chance because Matt Forte and Jay Culter got injured. Feel like I might hate this pick, but here goes: Chargers win.
Pick: Chargers win, cover

San Francisco (-1) at Seattle
If the spread wasn't just a point, I would pick the Seahawks to cover, because they're at home and have been playing increasingly well. The 49ers shocked me in dismantling the Steelers last week (albeit without a healthy Ben Roethlisberger), but I don't think they'll find this game quite easy. Still, they should win, probably on a Akers field goal or something.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Philadelphia at Dallas (-1)
The Eagles have finally stopped making the dumb mistakes that led them to their horrible start. The Cowboys seem long overdue for another Romo-led collapse. Plus, the Eagles have been playing lights out recently. Dallas' defense is horrible against the pass, got beat by a worse version of this Eagles team already, and the offense is still sometimes wonky thanks to Romo. Like the Eagles here, even if the game becomes meaningless for them with a Giants win.
Pick: Eagles win, cover

Chicago at Green Bay (-11.5)
Green Bay may have lost last week, but they're still far and away the best offense in the league. The Bears are starting ~~Cade~~ Josh McNown at quarterback, so even with all the motivation in the world to beat the hated Packers, I don't see them being able to keep up.
Pick: Packers win, Bears cover

Atlanta at New Orleans (-7)
Anyone watching Drew Brees lately should know that this doesn't even seem fair. The Saints offense has been ridiculous lately, and as much as the Falcons wish they had the same kind of firepower, Matt Ryan is no Drew Brees. Both defenses aren't that good, so it'll come down to the offense, and the Saints have a clear advantage.
Pick: Saints cover, win

Season: 148-76 overall, 110-109-5 ATS

Week 15 NFL Picks- the Return of Losman!

2011-12-18T08:52:00.000-08:00

J.P Losman makes his triumphant return to Buffalo!

Hi Folks. Sorry to have missed the Thursday and Saturday Night games, but, on the mystical honor code once again, I would've gone 2-0 overall and against the spread. It's not that impressive a feat, considering both those games were huge mismatches. Let's quickly get into Week 15. I can't really muster any excitement for the season anymore with this Bills losing streak. Getting up on Sundays is a chore. Let's go on ahead.

Washington at NY Giants (-6.5)
The Giants finally got off the schneid and won a close game with the Cowboys, giving the Giants control of the NFC East. The Giants are prone to disappointing performances coming off big wins, and the Redskins have hung around in their games lately, but I don't see the Giants letting up now that the division title is within their grasp.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Green Bay (-14.5) at Kansas City
Kansas City just fired their coach, and now the venerable Romeo Crennel steps in just in time to face off against the juggernaut that is the 2011 Packers. No amount of new coach motivation will be able to lift the Chiefs above their mediocrity to even keep up with the Packers.
Pick: Packers win, cover

New Orleans (-7.5) at Minnesota
The Saints are rolling right now, with Drew Brees on pace to destroy Dan Marino's single season passing yards record and an offense explosive enough to hide their poor defense. The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the league, Adrian Peterson is only just returning from injury, and Christian Ponder is still the quarterback. It should be pretty easy for the Saints in this one.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)
Is Caleb Hanie still starting for the Bears? Yes? Well I certainly can't pick them. The offense without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte is effectively dead. No matter how good the defense is, the offense can't put up enough to win every week; the Seahawks are on a mini-run and have Marshawn Lynch in beast mode right now, and should be able to get enough points to beat the decrepit Bears offense.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover

Miami at Buffalo (-1.5)
Maybe I'm still too hopeful about the Bills, but I still think they should be able to beat J.P. Losman. A loss here would be the final blow on my psyche. The Bills offense is very hit or miss, and could hit, and the Dolphins offense should struggle under Losman (I've seen enough Losman games to predict this- watch for a backbreaking interception or three!)
Pick: Bills win, cover

Carolina at Houston (-6)
Houston's found a way to grind out victories against any opponent without Matt Schaub or Andre Johnson behind a great defense and running game. The Panthers have Cam Newton and a terrible defense. It won't be the most exciting win, but the Texans will take this one handily, even if the highlights are focused on Newton's exploits.
Pick: Texans win, cover

Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis
The Titans aren't even that good, but the Colts are very bad. I'm still hedging my bets here, because it's hard to go 0-16 in this league, and if the Colts were going to win any game, this might well be it. These winless teams always come out and shock one team a year... and why not the Titans? I'm not betting on it, but I could see it.
Pick: Titans win, Colts cover

Cincinnati (-7) at St.Louis
The Rams have been atrocious all season, despite their one shining moment win over the Saints. The Bengals have struggled against quality opponents this year, but they finally get a break here. The Bengals are in the thick of the playoff race, need this win, and will take care of business of the hapless Rams.
Pick: Bengals win, cover

Detroit (-1) at Oakland
Both these teams are poorly coached, ceding way too many penalties per game in an effort to be 'tough' or 'nasty.' It's only intimidating until it costs you points, or a game, which has happened to both of these teams. Based on their recent runs, I'll go with the Lions, because the Raiders have been atrocious lately. Plus, Ndamukong Suh is back to stomp on more people!
Pick: Lions win, cover

New England (-7.5) at Denver
Tim Tebow has gotten his seven wins against teams with decent to bad offenses. The Patriots have one of the best offenses in the league, although their defense lets teams hang around too long. While Tebow should be able to keep the Broncos close, the Patriots offense will be too much for the Broncos defense (the real key to Tebow's success), limiting any more 'miracles' from Tebow. Finally.
Pick: Patriots win, Broncos cover

NY Jets (-3) at Philadelphia
The Jets have managed to become playoff contenders behind a strong running game and their typically tough defense; still, I don't see them as a really good team as long as Mark Sanchez is still at QB. The Eagles have underachieved all season, are still hanging by a thread in the NFC East race, and have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. I might be once again going down with this infuriating team, but I like the Eagles here.
Pick: Eagles win, cover

Cleveland at Arizona (-6.5)
John Skelton is even more Tebow-y than Tebow, in that he just wins game and he doesn't even have Tebow's run ability. The Cardinals are also inexplicably very good at home. Once again, I can't come up with anything about the Browns, who remain steadfast in losing ugly. Cleveland! Feel the excitement!
Pick: Cardinals win, cover

Baltimore (-2.5) at San Diego
San Diego has rattled off two straight wins against crappy opponents; now they're up against the Ravens, who have a real defense and an efficient offense. The Chargers haven't shown they can win against a good team yet, and Baltimore will be able to grind out a win here.
Pick: Ravens win, cover

Pittsburgh at San Francisco (-3)
While the 49ers are built in the same vein as the Ravens, a team that has beat the Steelers twice this season, I thought the 49ers-Ravens game exposed the 49ers fatal flaw- they're too safe on offense. On 3rd and long, they were running draw plays, trying to prevent turnovers. The Steelers have a good enough offense to score points on the 49ers defense (probably through the air), and the defense should be able to shut down the extremely conservative 49ers offense- field goals will not be enough for the 49ers, and that means a rare 49ers loss.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Week 14 NFL Picks: The Wave of Apathy

2011-12-10T11:43:00.000-08:00

Sad Fitz sums up the season thus far

Welcome to Week 14, folks, where good games go to die. There's only one game this week between teams that could be considered good- Cowboys vs Giants- and that's about it. The rest is either big mismatches or horrible teams having to play one another. Even better, the Bills continue in their five game losing streak, which is really brightening up my holiday season. So, to this week, I give a big ol' "meh." On to the picks. Last week I was 12-4 Overall and 9-7 ATS, which continues the trend of good overall, decent against the spread. Hey, it's not my money you're hypothetically spending.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5)

Here's one of the 'massive mismatch' games of the week, as the winless Colts take on the occasionally transcendent Ravens. I would usually take the Ravens to cover, but given their propensity to play down to their opponents, and the Colts spirited backdoor cover of the Patriots last week, I can't put my full weight behind the Ravens coming out and winning by at least 17. The Ravens love to make things interesting, no matter who the opponent is. Side note: With the way things are going now, I can't wait to see NFL Films Season Recap film for the 2011 Colts. The pinnacle of the season is a seven point loss to the Patriots, with swelling orchestra music behind it.
Pick: Ravens win, Colts cover

Houston at Cincinnati (-3)

Houston, without QB/WR duo Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, have managed to win football games the old fashioned way- run the ball and play great defense. Heck, even TJ Yates looked half decent last week. The Bengals have faltered a little bit now that they've started playing good teams; the offense has been exposed as limited and the defense, without CB Leon Hall, has struggled to completely contain offenses. With that in mind, I like the Texans to take this one with a steady diet of Arian Foster and a stifling D that should shut down the Bengals "Huck it to AJ Green" offense.
Pick:Texans win, cover

Oakland at Green Bay (-12)

Oakland is still without Darren McFadden, the running back that made the offense explosive, and the defense let the Dolphins destroy them last week. The Packers faced their hardest test remaining last week in a close game with the Giants, still managing to win despite Aaron Rodgers only playing merely "well" instead of his usual "ridiculous." The Raiders don't have the weapons on either side of the ball to really challenge the Packers, which means another week of effortless perfection by the Packers. They make it look so easy, don't they?
Pick: Packers win, cover

Kansas City at NY Jets (-10.5)

Tyler Palko was bad enough to get benched last week, but finagled his way back in after Kyle Orton hurt his finger. His only touchdown so far was a goofy Hail Mary last week. The rest of it has set back the art of quarterbacking 50 years or so. The Jets have their own terrible quarterback, but he has a solid running game and a good defense surrounding him, so they get by just fine.
Pick: Jets win, cover

Minnesota at Detroit (-9.5)

The Lions have barely fared better than the Bills have after their hot start, going 2-5 after a 5-0 start. Their offense has no running game at this point, and teams can shift coverage onto Calvin Johnson and effectively shut down the passing offense. On defense, the Lions are still without Ndamukong Suh (suspension) and are otherwise unimpressive on defense (Nick Fairley's made a huge difference, huh?) The Vikings aren't any better, of course, and they're still without Adrian Peterson, but all I'm saying is, I don't get the ten point spread here-the Lions aren't that good. The Lions should still win, but it will hardly be dominating.
Pick: Lions win, Vikings cover

New Orleans (-3.5) at Tennessee

The Saints have had some trouble on the road this season, especially against inferior opponents, but they seem to be on a roll right now. Drew Brees is playing absurdly well right now, the running game has kind of shown up, and the defense isn't bad enough to get them in trouble. After watching the Titans last week, I'm less than impressed- the defense isn't especially good, and the offense will have trouble keeping up with the Saints, especially if Chris Johnson can't get it going. The Saints should be able to end their road woes here, and perhaps hurt the Titans' chances at a wild card or the AFC South.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Philadelphia at Miami (-3)

Even with Michael Vick back under center for the Eagles, can you really trust the Bizarro Eagles? All season they've completely underwhelmed expectations at every turn, exposing a horrible defense (turns out hiring an offensive coordinator for the defensive coordinator job doesn't work) and an offense that seems like the playcaller doesn't want the team to score. LeSean McCoy, perhaps the best running back in the NFL this season, spends pockets of the game ignored while the offense runs another deep pass to DeSean Jackson, who doesn't even look back for the ball before it's picked off. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have spend the last four weeks just winning football games behind a solid defense and a weirdly explosive offense. I'll take that any day over the failed potential of the Eagles.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover

New England (-8) at Washington

New England keeps taking care of business: another three touchdowns for Tom Brady (all thrown to Rob Gronkowski) and a defense that's found a way to bend but not break. The Redskins are running business as usual, but only in the Bluth Company sense- completely dysfunctional. Top tight end Fred Davis, for instance, was just suspended four games for an offseason drug test that came up positive, giving a whole new meaning to the label "Offseason Champs" that the Redskins usually get. The ruthless efficiency of the Patriots should be more than enough to take down the Rex Grossman led, falling apart Redskins.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina

The Falcons continue to be the best boring team in the NFL, while the Panthers manage to be the worst exciting team in the league. Unfortunately for Cam Newton and all his exciting plays, the defense is basically non existent. The Falcons should be able to plod their way down the field enough times to pull out the victory here, while the Panthers will win in style points alone.
Pick: Falcons win, cover

Tampa Bay (-3) at Jacksonville

Oh God, this is not a fun game to even think about. The Jaguars have a pretty good defense that has been eroded by defense, and Blaine Gabbert seems to be regressing from week to week, probably because he doesn't have any receivers to throw to; they might as well put Air Bud out there. Tampa has a terrible defense, but the offense can be decent, provided that Josh Freeman plays. And, lucky for them, the Jaguars don't have enough on offense to challenge them (sorry, just Maurice Jones Drew is not enough). In the battle of "Not South Florida," I'll go with Tampa, but I hope I don't have to watch a second of it. (Though I would watch if the Bucs kept wearing their Creamsicle Orange jerseys)
Pick: Buccaneers win, cover

San Francisco (-4) at Arizona

Arizona is only getting four points here because of their home field advantage, but, unlike the Cowboys, the 49ers don't have some sort of jinx in Arizona. The 49ers will do their usual 49ers thing- great defense, run the ball, and kick field goals. Arizona will counter with "Kevin Kolb just wings it for 60 minutes, hope the other team ices their own kicker, and randomly win in OT," but that's not a blueprint for long term success. Just like acquiring Kevin Kolb as your quarterback of the future.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Chicago at Denver (-3.5)

Last week I said that Caleb Hanie was a lot better than Donovan McNabb. Oops! Caleb Hanie is awful, and the Bears have lost Matt Forte for the next couple of weeks. This leaves Chicago without an offense, basically. Now they have to face a suddenly nasty Denver Broncos defense, which won't help matters. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have this quarterback you might've heard about, and he plays well at the end of football games, and wins most of them. The Bears still have a great defense and wicked special teams, but their lack of offense will not be enough to keep up with whatever Tim Tebow is able to pull out at the end of this one.
Pick: Broncos win, cover

Buffalo at San Diego (-7)

Sigh. Last week, I ranted about how much I hated the Chargers and how they were basically the AFC version of the Eagles, and then they go out and trounce the Jaguars. The Bills continued to show their 2010 form in another "close but no cigar" loss last week to the Titans. The Chargers have far from a great defense, meaning the Bills could theoretically stick around, but the Chargers weapons on offense should be more than enough to beat a Swiss Cheese Bills defense. It feels like it will be a classic "Bills stick around and then lose in the end" game, which should mean another great Sunday for me. Hoo-ray. It's not too early to think of draft position, is it?
Pick: Chargers win, Bills cover

NY Giants at Dallas (-4)

The Giants just gave the Packers the hardest game they've played in months, while Dallas just choked away a game against the lowly Cardinals. And yet this is the spread? I'll happily take the Giants to win, then- they have a better offense and an at least equal defense to the Cowboys, and Tony Romo has infected the rest of the Cowbiys with a case of the choke-sies- even their coach. It's hard to believe, but Eli Manning has put together a top 10 (or even top 5) season this year, and that should continue against a vulnerable Cowboys defense.
Pick: Giants win, cover

St. Louis at Seattle (-10)

Remember when these two teams played for the division last season? Ha! While the Seahawks stick around in the playoff race (improbably), the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season. Now they're starting their third string quarterback, who I won't even make the effort of looking up. To add to that, they have a historically bad run defense, meaning Marshawn Lynch should be able to get all BEAST MODE against them. Oh yeah, the Seahawks are at home as well, where they have an obscene advantage. So yeah, the Seahawks should take this one pretty easily.
Picks: Seahawks win, cover

Also, I swear, at one point, I will weigh in on Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, The Bulls, Albert Pujols, the Cubs, and OH YEAH the Sabres. Once I have time.

Season:126-66 Overall, 97-91-4 ATS

Week 14 Thursday Night Pick

2011-12-08T15:14:00.000-08:00

Pretty simple: (Won't get into any details of how I did last weekend. Without thinking, pretty good? More on Sunday.)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)

It's Cleveland. They have no weapons on offense besides a barely-invested Peyton Hillis. Their defense has been decent-to-good all season, enough to make most of their games extremely boring- their offense doesn't score, and they prevent the opponent from scoring too much. Fortunately, the Steelers have enough fire power to beat the Browns defense, and the Steelers D shouldn't be challenged all too much. All that makes me think it'll be smooth sailing for the Steelers. Another great game on the NFL Network! (They get the last choice every week!)
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Week 13 NFL Picks, Just in Time

2011-12-04T09:25:00.000-08:00

Stevie Johnson, When it Counts.

Happy Sunday everyone! I'll get through this semi-quickly, since I'm running out of time. Last week, I went 11-5 Overall and 8-8 ATS, which is for all accounts pretty decent. (And I nailed the Thursday Night pick this week!) I don't even want to talk that much about the Bills; I'll get to that in the picks. Sorry, no huge theme for the column. Just picks. It's final exams time.

Tennessee at Buffalo (-1)

Last week was a pretty classic sucker punch Bills loss. The team came out and actually played well against the Jets, seemingly saying, "Oh, you thought we were going to just get blown out? No! We're going to play well and make this loss even more infuriating!" Just when you think it's done, they pull you back in. (As a side note: I thought Stevie Johnson's TD celebration was hilarious, going to the ground and drawing a flag was not, along with Dave Rayner's inability to kick off correctly. And Stevie's drop in the clutch? Well, no one likes that, and if he wants #1 receiver money, he has to perform in the clutch.) Anyway, I'm not getting suckered into picking the Bills again. The Titans have a division title to play for now that TJ Yates is starting at QB for the Texans, and the Bills still have no defense and a streaky offense. It might be close, but not seeing the Bills winning this one; they've destroyed my homerism this season.
Pick: Titans win, cover

Kansas City at Chicago (-7.5)

Donovan McNabb could be starting for the Bears and I'd still pick them. Tyler Palko is that bad as the Chiefs' QB. The Bears have the defense and special teams to get it done; Caleb Hanie needs to just hand off to Matt Forte and limit mistakes, and it should be smooth sailing for the Bears. Also, Bears fans hoping to sign Donovan McNabb- really? Why would you want that ever? McNabb, at this point, is leagues away from Hanie. Not worth it.
Pick: Bears win, cover

Oakland at Miami (-3.5)

Miami is actually pretty good. Matt Moore is inexplicably playing well, and the defense, which was very good last year, has returned to that form. Oakland won mostly on field goals last week against a weakened Bears team; and they're coming on a cross country flight. I'll take the Fins to win and further shake up the AFC West division race.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Cinci just barely scraped by the Browns last week, and now come into Pittsburgh. The Bengals still have a good shot at the playoffs, but I can't see them beating an elite team like the Steelers. Steelers have too many weapons on offense and a better defense than the Bengals. The Bengals will stick around, but eventually, the cream rises to the top.
Pick: Steelers win, Bengals cover

Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland

The Ravens just came off a big win against the 49ers; and here comes the inevitable letdown against a crappy opponent that has characterized the Ravens this season. The Browns remain the most uninteresting team in the NFL; literally nothing jumps out at me to talk about. The Ravens have to break out of this play-down-to-their-opponent funk sometime (their coach has been preaching it this week), and I guess I'll go with this week as the one. Although I could definitely be cursing this when it's 13-3 Browns in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Ravens win, Browns cover

NY Jets (-3) at Washington

The Jets are still not that good; Mark Sanchez had the worst 4-TD quarterback performance I've ever seen, and the defense is not impenetrable anymore. Good for the Jets, the Redskins are still pretty bad, despite Rex Grossman's good play the last three weeks. Can't see Rex doing much better than Fitz did last week against the Jets, and the Redskins have a defense that's as good as the Bills- which all leads to another Jets win. As much as it pains me to say.
Pick: Jets win, cover

Atlanta (-1.5) at Houston

Welcome to the T.J Yates era in Houston! Can't think of anyone successful who goes by the name "T.J"in the adult world- so that's never a good sign. The Falcons should be able to stack the box and prevent the Texans run game from taking over the game, forcing Yates to throw. On offense, the Falcons offense goes against the newly tough Houston defense. In the end, I think the Falcons offense will be able to have more success against the Texans defense than vice-versa. Which leads to a Falcons win, but I doubt it will be that easy.
Pick: Falcons win, cover

Carolina (-1.5) at Tampa Bay

Since I'm writing this an hour before the games begin, I get the benefit of knowing that Josh Freeman is out for this game. Which means that an already stagnant Bucs offense will be worse off. The Panthers have no defense, but against Josh Johnson, it won't matter as much. Cam Newton will be able to get it done against a mediocre Tampa defense, and we've got ourselves a fourth Carolina win. Oh yeah, Josh Freeman injured himself because he went to a firing range with an injured thumb on his throwing hand and decided to shoot with a DESERT EAGLE. This story should be much bigger.
Pick: Panthers win, cover

Detroit at New Orleans (-9)

The Lions are without Sir-Foot-Stomper Suh, and their defense already wasn't that good with him on the field. A week after being lit up by Aaron Rodgers, well, Drew Brees comes into town, and it won't be much prettier. Brees is well on his way to breaking Marino's season-passing-yards record, and the Lions won't be a hiccup in that chase. The Lions are still woefully one dimensional on offense (chuck it to Calvin Johnson!), and they will not be able to keep up with Brees and the Saints.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Denver (-1) at Minnesota

Denver is without Von Miller (another benefit to writing so late!), meaning the defense that has kept Tim Tebow is every game will not be quite as good. Lucky for them, Adrian Peterson is still out for the Vikings, and Christian Ponder isn't quite lighting up the stat sheet these days. Once again, Tebow should be able to pull this one out; one they play a good offense without Von Miller, this might be a different story.
Pick: Broncos win, cover

St. Louis at San Francisco (-14)

Yep. St. Louis is that bad, San Francisco has a chance to clinch the division. The NFC West: Clinched by Week 13! And it's not even close!
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona

Dallas, for some reason, sucks at Arizona, but Kevin Kolb is returning for the Cardinals, and yes, it's a bad thing when he returns as starting QB. He's taken the crown of "ill advised back foot throws" from Jay Cutler. Dallas will probably win this game; they have more talent all over the field; but I'll take the Cardinals to cover, just in case Dallas continues to struggle in Arizona.
Pick: Cowboys win, Cardinals cover

Green Bay (-6.5) at NY Giants

Remember what Drew Brees did to the Giants last week? Aaron Rodgers has been better than Brees this season; this should be a cakewalk for Rodgers and the Packers' extremely efficient offense. The Giants are not as bad as previous Giants team that swooned in December; I still see them grabbing the division or a wild card. This week, though, will not be pretty.
Pick: Packers win, cover

Indianapolis at New England (-20.5)

Peyton Manning for MVP! There's the effect of not having Manning this year- the Patriots are twenty point favorites, and I'm very willing to take that spread, especially now that Dan Orlovsky is under center for the Colts. They might as well just put their punter at QB; it would be just as apparent that they have no interest in winning games this year.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville

Screw the Chargers. I'm done believing in the talent this team as long as Norv Turner is still the coach. Jacksonville should be energized under their new coach and still have a great defense. Enough for me to believe that they can pull out a win over the underachieving, listless Chargers.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover

Season:114-62 Overall, 88-84-4 ATS (not including Thursday's results)

Battle of the Birds Thursday Night Pick

2011-12-01T13:28:00.000-08:00

Thursday Night Football comes off a great Thanksgiving Night game to give us...this. Eagles-Seahawks. Yet again, how could any TV executive think this is a good game before the season started? Does the NFL Network get like the 8th pick for its' games? Well, anyway,

Philadelphia (-3) at Seattle

I know Seattle's pretty bad, but they do have a pretty hefty home field advantage, and they run the ball consistently, if not always well. The defense is pretty good against the run, with a crappy pass defense. The Eagles have been underperforming all season, looking less than impressive in most games. With Vince Young under center instead of Mike Vick, they've hardly looked any better. The short week should aid the Seahawks (the underdogs have performed better in the Thursday Night games so far), and they have a good enough run defense to limit LeSean McCoy, the most productive Eagle. The Eagles have a bad run defense, and the Seahawks should be successfully pounding the ball with Marshawn Lynch. While I have trouble trusting either team, I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Seahawks win, further torpedoing the Eagles season.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover

Week 12 NFL Picks: Yes, It's All Downhill from Here

2011-11-26T15:19:00.000-08:00

CJ Spiller steps into the spotlight this week

In my last post, I posited that the Bills were basically doomed from this point onwards, and little hope remained for a playoff run. Well, with the distressing news of Fred Jackson's season ending leg injury, I can pretty much say that there's no hope for this team. Jackson accounted for 40% of the offense this year. One player! 40%! If the Bills were struggling on offense before this, well, it can't get any better without Jackson. The only silver lining from this development is the chance for CJ Spiller, so far a total bust, to get a starter's workload in the backfield. Who knows, maybe he'll flash the talent that made him the #9 pick. It doesn't look good for the Bills from here, though.

Anyway, I failed to make my Thanksgiving picks because I was traveling, but I would've gone (cross my heart, hope to die) Packers win, Lions cover; Cowboys win, Dolphins cover; Ravens win, cover. Which puts me at 3-0 overall and 2-1 ATS for this week. Or I'm a big, filthy liar, but that's the honor code for you.

Last week I went 9-5 Overall and 5-7-2 ATS-continuing my streak of good picking overall and poor against the spread. To be fair, it's my first year really picking spreads, and a lot of these games were a lot closer than expected. Anyway, onto the rest of Week 12, in the post Thanksgiving hangover.

Arizona at St. Louis (-2.5)

Um...(plays eenie-meenie-minie-moe, throws at a dartboard blindfolded...) I'll take the Rams here? Honestly, both of these teams are awful, I wouldn't let any of my loved ones watch this game, and it's near impossible to pick between the two, like picking between spending time in a Turkish prison or the Gulag. In the end, no one is a winner.
Pick: Rams win, cover

Buffalo at NY Jets (-9.5)

The Jets aren't even that good of a team, as evidenced by last week's loss to the Broncos. Their offense is painful- they can't run and Mark Sanchez is still nowhere near a good quarterback.The defense is still very good, but not always enough to pick up the slack for the offense. And I still think they'll crush the Bills in their current state- injured and exposed on both sides of the ball. The Bills will lose this and we can stop pretending they're in the playoff race.
Pick: Jets win, cover

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-7.5)

The Bengals have lost their last two games to the elite of the AFC North, but have shown a lot of resolve in keeping both of those games close; right now, they look like a wild card team. The Browns are mediocre and boring on both sides of the ball; there's just nothing interesting or dangerous about this team. They were good enough to beat an offensively defunct Jaguars team, but I can't see them doing much damage against a stout Bengals defense and a talented offense.
Pick:Bengals win, cover

Houston (-6.5) at Jacksonville

Houston has lost Matt Schaub for the rest of the season, and now the revered (for his partying) Matt Leinart steps in to take over what looks to be a playoff bound team. Fortunately for the Texans, he won't have to do much- the Texans defense is really good this year, and the run game is what makes the offense work well. Plus, it doesn't hurt that big target Andre Johnson is coming back, giving Leinart a big safety blanket if he needs it. Jacksonville, for all its quality on defense, can't do anything offensively. So even if Leinart crashes and burns, the Jaguars won't be able to benefit from the wreckage, and the Texans should be fine relying on Arian Foster anyways.
Pick: Texans win, cover

Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis

For all the excitement Cam Newton has brought to the Panthers, he's only provided them with two wins (although their porous defense is much to blame as well.) Lucky for him, the Panthers face off against the Colts, a winless team that seems close to resigned to not winning till 2012, with either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck under center. Even with an awful defense on his side, Cam should be able to get it done against the listless Colts.
Pick: Panthers win, cover

Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-3.5)

Both of these teams confuse me; I can't tell what their relative quality is. Both have some offensive issues and mediocre defenses, but manage to hang around in games. Matt Hasselbeck is still the starter for the Titans, despite a Jake Locker appearance last week. As long as Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson are the main players in the Titans offense, I don't trust them much, while Tampa has a young nucleus of offensive players that have struggled this year, but could be breaking out right now. So I'll go with the Bucs here.
Pick: Bucs win, cover

Minnesota at Atlanta (-9.5)

Minnesota is without Adrian Peterson, far-and-away their best offensive threat, and their passing defense is pretty awful. Atlanta has righted the ship after a rocky start, playing their methodical offense and just good enough defense to pull out victories. It ain't always pretty (Julio Jones has brought a modicum of flair to the offense), but against a weak Vikings team, it should be more than enough to win.
Pick:Atlanta wins, cover

Chicago at Oakland (-3.5)

Even without Jay Cutler, the Bears have an astonishingly good special teams unit and a great defense. The offense was always predicated on Matt Forte, so Caleb Hanie's biggest responsibilities will have to be handing it off to Forte or throwing screen passes to Forte. The Raiders have risen above the squalor of the AFC West, but I still don't see them as a great team; their recent wins haven't been against quality teams, and they haven't been dominating in either win. The Bears can survive without Cutler, and this is the start.
Pick: Bears win, cover

Washington at Seattle (-3.5)

Yes, the Redskins were surprisingly competitive last week in taking the Cowboys in overtime, but can you really expect Rex Grossman to be consistently good? No, especially not on the road at the loudest stadium in the NFL, that of the Seahawks. The Seahawks have found an offensive identity in giving Marshawn Lynch the ball 30 times a game, no matter what, and hoping Tavaris Jackson can string together a couple plays of offensive competency. And their defense is OK. The Redskins have a bad defense and a potentially catastrophic offense (depending on which Rex shows up). I'll take consistent mediocrity over potential for mayhem.
Pick: Seattle wins, covers

New England (-3.5) at Philadelphia

The Eagles are yet again without Michael Vick, and while Vince Young's "Tebow" impression was cute last week, I don't see him being able to match an offensively gifted Patriots team. While the Bills defense has gotten worse and worse, the Patriots defense has managed to get better as the season has progressed- the sign of a true contender. The Eagles playoff chances will take a nosedive in this one, while the Patriots will move closer to an AFC East crown.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

Denver at San Diego (-5.5)

Tough to trust either team, as Philip Rivers has been terrible this season and Tim Tebow can't play quarterback well for more than five minutes. The Chargers are all hype with no substance, while the Broncos have a stingy defense to match their overhyped quarterback. The Chargers need this to stay alive in the AFC West, and have to put together a complete game sometime; the Broncos have gotten a little lucky these past five games under Tim Tebow. Something's gotta give, so I give it to the Chargers, though reluctantly.
Pick: Chargers win, Broncos cover

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City

Tyler Palko is still at QB for the Chiefs, and he led the Chiefs to three whole points last week against an improving, but still weak, Patriots defense. Now he faces the Steelers defense, and they won't be as forgiving (if you consider a field goal forgiving). The Steelers also have a high powered offense as good as the Patriots, and the Patriots were able to put up 34 points against the Chiefs. All told, this should be easy sledding for the Steelers as they challenge the Ravens for the AFC North crown.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

NY Giants at New Orleans (-7)

New Orleans is rested, coming off a bye, and have what is probably the second best offense in the league (behind Green Bay's.) The Giants are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Eagles and have shown a propensity for infuriating inconsistency. I don't think their corners will be able to contain the Saints offense, and the Saints defense, far from world beaters, should be good enough to stop a Giants offense that's in a semi-funk. You never know, though, with the Giants, so I'll take them to cover, in case they decide to be competitive.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Season: 106-57 Overall, 82-77-4 ATS (counting Thanksgiving games)

Paradise Lost in Buffalo

2011-11-22T21:02:00.000-08:00

"he with his horrid crew/ lay vanquished, rolling in the fiery gulf/ confounded though immortal: but now his doom/ reserved him to more wrath; for now the thought/ both of lost happiness and lasting pain/ torments him; round he throws his baleful eyes/ that witnessed huge affliction and dismay/ mixed with obdurate pride and steadfast hate"
-Paradise Lost, John Milton

The above passage describes Satan himself, in the aftermath of his expulsion from heaven, waking up in hell. But you know what? It perfectly describes the pain of this Bills season so far. Stick with me here as I get extremely English-Nerdy.

See, the Bills season started off unbelievably. There was the drubbing of the Chiefs in Week 1, the come from behind, thrill a minute shootout with the Raiders, and then, finally, the Patriots game. The Bills hadn't beat the Patriots in 15 tries. 15! That's about eight seasons of being the punching bag for the Patriots. Yet here were the Bills, going down 18 points in the first half, then storming back to win on a last second field goal. Heavenly. The Bills lost the next game, but only by three, hung on to beat the Eagles, barely lost to the Giants, and then convincingly beat the Redskins.

It all seemed so good. The offense was prodigious, seemingly able to score at will. Fred Jackson made the engine purr, was capable of busting off 10+ yard runs at will, he ambling down the field, changing direction subtly, like water. Ryan Fitzpatrick was accurate, made good decisions, and the quick passing game seemed good for at least seven yards every time. Also, they were deadly efficient in the Red Zone. The defense had a better run defense than last year and were creating turnovers at key times by either undercutting routes or pouncing on tipped balls. Chan Gailey was making perfect half time adjustments.

But now they have fallen precipitously. As Jets running back LaDanian Tomlinson said, "Same Old Bills." The offense has suddenly stalled, scoring 11, 7 and 8 in their last three, all blowout losses. The short route spread offense is no longer working-teams are simply playing the receivers tight at the line, meaning that the quick routes aren't open. The Bills don't have a deep threat at receiver, so there's no need to play off at the line of scrimmage. Without the threat of the pass, Fred Jackson has been severely limited, although he's still the best player by far on the offense. (In addition, Chan Gailey seems to abandon the run on some drives, which is infuriating.) Fitzpatrick has shown that he's too inconsistent to be a franchise QB, and has made his big new contract look like a huge mistake. Chan Gailey has lost his touch play calling, sticking to an offensive plan that has been figured out. The already thin wide receiver core and offensive line have been hit by injuries, along with every level of the defense. The defense isn't creating turnovers anymore, which means it's the same defense as last year- awful. There's a receiver open on every play and the run defense wears down. It's a total breakdown. A fresh hell.

The pain of this fall comes from the fact that we, the fans, have seen the flash of potential that this team has shown. They looked to have the talent and resolve to make a playoff run, to end the playoff drought that's plagued Buffalo since 1999. Last year's 0-8 start was less painful than this, because they were always bad- there's no sense of loss there. But this, this is cruel. It's like the flash off a disposable camera- it hits, it hurts your eyes with its strength, and the mark remains burned in your eyes. When you close your eyes, you can still see that mark, the remnant of the bright flash that once was, and now it's fading. "lost happiness and lasting pain." There's the mix.

Yet, despite this, hope springs eternal. The Bills are still only one game out of the playoffs, due to the bungling by other teams in the NFL. It will take a drastic turnaround by the Bills to make the playoffs, and they'll probably have to go at least 4-2 (with some help) to make the playoffs. The way they've been playing recently, I don't see them winning another game on the schedule. But there's always the chance they can reinvent themselves into winners for the final stretch of the season. It starts with this week's game against the Jets. The Jets are certainly not an elite team; one simply has to watch their game against the Broncos to prove that. The Jets defense was the first team to really shut down the Bills; if the Bills somehow can make the adjustments necessary to win, it would probably be the monumental win needed to turn it around. I don't see it happening, frankly, but it could. We've seen the peak this team can hit, we've seen its' low point, and now it's left to see if they will ascend again. The pain is worse, the cut deeper, and yet, I'll probably keep watching, and keep hoping. What else can we do, anyway? Give up? No, not until the bitter end. I'll let the Devil provide the rallying cry:

"We may with more successful hope resolve/ to wage by force or guile eternal war/ Irreconcilable, to our grand foe/who now triumphs..."
-Paradise Lost, John Milton

Week 11 NFL Picks: Up or Down From Here?

2011-11-19T13:06:00.000-08:00

The only highlight for the Bills last week. Literally. Yet, they're still in the playoff hunt.

It's weird to think that we're getting very close to the end of this NFL season. Huh? I've watched 9 weeks of Bills football? That's three months! It's now the crux of the season; teams can either fade away, as the Bills seemingly are right now, or they can fight through November, rising as the season enters its' last quarter. As I said before, the Bills have faded since their hot start; they started 3-0 and, since then, have gone 2-4. But they remain alive in the playoff race, because the AFC is seriously muddled right now. There isn't one dominating team in the AFC so far, every team has a fatal flaw, and everyone is basically sitting in a muddle between 7 and 5 wins.

The Texans, at the top of the conference, just lost starter Matt Schaub for the rest of the season, putting revered partier, not so revered football player Matt Leinart at the helm. The Ravens are blisteringly inconsistent. The Steelers, for all their improvement, can't beat the Ravens. The Patriots have an atrocious defense and Tom Brady has looked decidedly mortal. The Bengals and Jets don't have good offenses (with the Jets being appreciably worse than the Bengals.) The West is a logjam of mediocre teams. The Titans are struggling on offense and defense, but have managed to stick around. And, of course, The Bills.

The Bills have a bad, bad defense that can't generate pressure. When they don't force turnovers, they're dead. The offense has become stagnant, and teams have figured out how to beat the spread. Basically, their flaws have been badly exposed. But due to the uncertainty in the AFC, they still have a shot at turning it around and making a playoff run. It has to start this week, or the beginning of the season was just a flash in the pan, a brief vision of what a competitive team in Buffalo could look like.

Anyway, onto the picks. My Thursday Night pick was once again wrong. The short weeks are definitely helping the underdogs so far. Also, Tebow. More than enough has been said about him. It's bizarre to watch him, because he looked horrendous through all four quarters; then led an amazing 95 yard game winning touchdown drive. I've never seen anything like it; a complete and utter transformation. The defense kept him in the game, and then he delivered. If he can ever put it together for more than just the end of a game, then there's a world of potential for him, even if he defies almost every convention of NFL quarterbacking. So, yes, 0-1 this week, but I'm happy about it, because the Jets lost. And that can never be a bad thing.

Last week, I went 10-6 Overall and 9-7 ATS. Can't complain.

Tennessee at Atlanta (-6)

The Titans are now back to being AFC South contenders, without even trying. Now that Matt Schaub is down for the Texans, it looks as if the Titans can contend for the AFC South (unless Matt Leinart keeps the ship from sinking). Still, they haven't been very good all season; last week, they beat up on an overrated (yes, a two win team can be overrated) Panthers team. The Falcons, on the other hand, have shown a propensity to lose close games this season, but also have a stouter defense than the Panthers, which should stop the Titans somewhat anemic offense. The Falcons offense is still the plodding, methodical unit of last year, and, while not always pretty (Julio Jones has brought some excitement to it, though), they can usually put up enough points to win. The Titans are going to be playing harder, because they have a new hope for the division title, but the Falcons, at home, should be able to get it done- they are playing for their playoff lives, too- they either need to catch the Saints in the division or win a wild card spot in a crowded NFC race.
Pick: Falcons win, Titans cover

Buffalo at Miami (-2)

Well, who woulda thought that Miami would be a home favorite in this game even two weeks ago? The Dolphins have ripped off a two game winning streak, and the Bills have faltered badly in two straight, setting up this line, where a 2-7 team is favored over the 5-4 one. As I said before, the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and REALLY need this one; they've been embarrassed the last two weeks, and they are (hopefully) looking to get back on track. Also, them being underdogs to a 2-7 team should light a fire under them. If they lose this one, it's done. If they win this one, and the Jets game next week, they would have sufficient momentum to get a Wild Card or even challenge the Patriots for the division. They were handed a gift when the Jets lost on Thursday; now they need to respond and try and make a playoff run out of it. I know the Dolphins have been playing well for the past five weeks or so, but they've only beaten the Chiefs and Redskins, two sub-par teams. Blinded by homerism, I will once again go with the Bills. They need it. I need it. Let's hope this is the start of an upward trend, a rising from the trench they've dug for themselves the past two weeks. Squish the Fish!
Pick: Bills win, cover

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)

The Bengals are without AJ Green and Leon Hall for this game, which should make this a comfortable Ravens win. Unfortunately, the Ravens play to the level of their opponent, beating very good teams and falling to the bottom feeders. The defense is still top class; it's the offense, stuck with an identity crisis, bringing the team down. Specifically, the Ravens have an elite running back in Ray Rice, and they barely use him, instead depending on the inconsistent Joe Flacco. It's not pretty. This game has playoff implications, though, and I think Baltimore will be up for the game. The Bengals, despite their injuries, should keep it close, but I see Baltimore taking it- as long as they care about this game.
Pick: Ravens win, Bengals cover

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)

Guhhhhhhh. Every game that Jacksonville is involved with turns out to be terribly boring. This one might set new records, replacing "Watching Paint Dry" as the go to descriptor of a boring activity. The Jaguars have a great defense and Maurice Jones Drew on offense. That's it. The Browns? Nothing of note.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover

Oakland at Minnesota (-1)

Tough to figure this one. Oakland is leading the AFC West, currently, while the Vikings sit at 2-7. Yet, the Vikings are the (slim) favorites. I'm having trouble picking either way, so I'm going with what I saw last week- the Raiders were impressive last Thursday in beating the Chargers (and get the long week to rest after that), while the Vikings just got blown out (admittedly, it was against the Packers). Adrian Peterson could take over this game and win it for the Vikings, but, barring that, I like the Raiders. Carson Palmer actually looks to be growing into the QB role for the Raiders, and just in time for a divisional race. Should be enough motivation to beat an underrated Vikings team.
Pick: Raiders win, cover

Carolina at Detroit (-7)

The Lions, like the Bills, have fallen off the face of the planet after a hot start to the season. The Panthers started the season as possible spoiler team- they always managed to keep it close, even against far superior opponents. Both teams have basically been figured out. The Lions still have no running game, and the defensive front can't mask their bad secondary. The Panthers have a horrible defense, and the Cam Newton show on offense isn't as productive as it was to start the season. Detroit's at home, needs to stay in the wild card race, and has more quality on both sides of the ball. I'll take them to win, but the Panthers should be able to stay within a touchdown because Matthew Stafford has lost his accuracy, and the Lions offense is hampered.
Pick: Lions win, Panthers cover

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14)

Have you watched a Packers game recently? Yeah, they're pretty good, in case you haven't noticed. Have you watched a Buccaneers game lately? Well, they have a stagnant offense and a horrid run defense to go with a decent pass defense. Easy pickings for Aaron Rodgers and co.
Pick: Packers win, cover

Dallas (-7) at Washington

As I saw last week, when Dallas has all its cylinders firing, they are scary good. DeMarco Murray is a talented back, and Tony Romo, when on his game, is among the top ten quarterbacks in the league. The defense can create pressure consistently. (All Cowboys praise comes through gritted teeth.) The Redskins are just bad. Very bad. When John Beck and Rex Grossman are fighting for the quarterback job game to game, well, it's not going well. The offense has no appreciable weapons without Santana Moss, and the defense isn't good enough to bail out the offense. This is one rivalry game that shouldn't be close.
Pick: Cowboys win, cover

Arizona at San Francisco (-10)

Yep, the 49ers are for real. Stout defense, mistake free offense. The Cardinals have won two straight, somehow, behind the quarterbacking of John Skelton. I don't his success continuing against the 49ers, especially on the road. The 49ers should be able to take this one easily and get one step closer to locking up this division.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Seattle at St. Louis (-3)

Can't find a compelling reason why I'm picking the Seahawks here besides the fact that they've looked better than decent the past two weeks (giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch a lot more), while the Rams win over the Saints, their only quality game this year, was an aberration from the norm (see: last week's win against Cleveland which came thanks to a missed field goal.)
Pick: Seahawks win, cover

San Diego at Chicago (-3.5)

The Chargers are infuriating; they have a wealth of talent, but squander it away in every loss. They haven't played an impressive game all season. The Bears, as much as I hate to say it, have hit a stride on both sides of the ball. Jay Cutler has learned to succeed behind a bad offensive line, and Matt Forte has shown the form of his rookie season. Now let the Bears fans Super Bowl proclamations proceed- it's never too early for them. Consistency wins over the potential that the Chargers show but never go through with.
Pick: Bears win, cover

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-5)

No Mike Vick for the Eagles? Vince Young starting in his place? The Giants, at home, coming off a tough loss and looking to take the reins of this division? Check, check, and check. The Eagles are the NFC version of the Chargers, yet somehow worse. The Giants have the defense to neutralize Vince Young and an offense that can exploit the Eagles sub par defense. This is another NFC East rivalry game that shouldn't be close.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Kansas City at New England (-15)

New England silenced the doubters with a huge win over the Jets last week. Now they can take further control of the division with another win, and, lucky for them, they get the Chiefs. The Chiefs have reverted back to their early season form- bad- and are going into this game with Tyler Palko at quarterback. Who? Exactly. New England's defense won't be tested in this game, and the Chiefs offense doesn't have the personnel to slow down Brady and the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

Season: 94-52 Overall, 75-69-2 ATS

Thursday Night NFL Pick

2011-11-17T14:52:00.000-08:00

Jets (-6) at Denver

Even looking at this game before the season (without any of the hindsight we have now), I'm not sure why the NFL Network thought this game was the best fit for this week's Thursday Night game. The Broncos weren't supposed to be good at the start of the season; and so far, they're holding up their end of the bargain. The Jets were considered to be good before the season and, lo and behold, they are a quality team. So this has been a mismatch from the start. Still, in this wacky, Tebow-filled world, the Broncos have managed to get to 4-5. They even beat the Chiefs last week with an old school, run heavy "T-Bone" offense, with Tim Tebow completing two passes...for the whole game. It may have worked last week, but I don't see it working against a very angry Jets team, sore after losing to the Patriots. The Jets will be able to stuff the box, denying the run, and have the ability in the defensive backfield to leave their corners in man-to-man situations. Basically, the Jets can put about eight or even nine people in the box, lock Darrell Revis on Eric Decker (or whoever the #1 receiver is on the Broncos in the post- Brandon Lloyd era), and capably cover the other receivers. Tebow will be forced to throw, and that's usually not pretty. On the other side of the ball, the Jets aren't amazing on offense- see: last week, when they got effectively shut down by the Patriots defense- but they should be able to put up enough points against an improving, but not great, Broncos defense. It won't be a pretty game, or high scoring, but the Jets should take it.
Pick: Jets win, cover

The Rest of My Week 10 NFL Picks

2011-11-12T16:47:00.000-08:00

Marcell Dareus, head of the Bills defense now that Kyle Williams is out

Well, my picks started off rough after the Chargers crapped the bed Thursday Night, giving Carson Palmer a career renaissance en route to a seven point Raiders win. So I started 0-1 this week. Also: the AFC West is insane and whoever comes out of this cluster**** cannot be foreseen at this point. Last week, for all my picks, I went 7-7 overall and 8-6 ATS. Nothing special. Some big whiffs, but some big hits, I guess.

What of this week? Well, there are no bye weeks, probably because of some weird lockout scheduling. It's also extremely difficult to pick; there are only two lines above seven points, with the rest ranging from "PK" to 6.5. There are some games easy to pick overall, on just winners, but picking these spreads is tricky. If I had real money to bet, I'd be saving it this week.

Pittsburgh (-4) at Cincinnati

The Bengals have been the shock of this season; behind rookies Andy Dalton and AJ Green, along with a stifling defense and a mistake free offense, they've climbed to the top of the AFC standings. Dirty little secret time, though: they haven't beaten a good team besides the Bills, and even that was a 23-20 victory. The rest of their games have been close wins over bad teams. Now they're running into the tough part of the schedule: two games against the Steelers, two against the Ravens, and the Houston game (along with a couple of creampuffs). The Bengals are in a good spot now, but look to be headed for a little bit of a fall. The Steelers have been really good lately, notwithstanding a last second loss to the Ravens last week. Their defense is alive and kicking (after they were presumed dead) and the offense has become a passing juggernaut. The Bengals are facing their first real test, and I don't see them passing this one: the Steelers are too good right now, and the Bengals have been lucky so far.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

Honestly? I have no idea about this game. The Chiefs got absolutely destroyed last week by THE DOLPHINS. The Broncos blew out the Raiders last week because they instituted the option. This is some bizarro universe I can't even come close to understanding. The Chiefs should have a week to prepare for the option attack (which somehow the Raiders couldn't react to), but they also just got BLOWN OUT BY THE DOLPHINS. Fine. I'll go with the Broncos. No idea why. The option works again? If it makes no sense, it makes sense in the AFC West.
Pick: Broncos win, Chiefs cover

Jacksonville (-3) at Indianapolis

If you want to cry tears of boredom, watch this game. Jacksonville has a terrible offense- rookie Blaine Gabbert is struggling more as the season moves on and his receiving core is comprised of cardboard cut outs of real NFL wide receivers. They have a great running back, though, and a really good defense. The Colts are just bad on both sides of the ball- a solid fantasy play is just to play whatever defense goes against the Colts. Seriously, the Colts have nothing going for them. The Jaguars should manage to win this one, and it certainly won't be pretty.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover

Buffalo at Dallas (-5.5)

Last week the Bills got flat out beat down by the Jets on both sides of the ball. The Bills looked flat and never were in the game, even when it was 3-0. Flat out, they laid an egg in one of the key games of the season. Once again, the Bills need a win here to stay in the playoff race and prove their legitimacy as a playoff contender. They haven't won against a good team on the road yet, and they're facing a stretch of tough road games. A loss here puts them in precarious position for the rest of the year, and squanders their fast start. The Cowboys are similarly in need of a win. At 4-4, they're in the middle of their division and losing ground to the Giants, and the NFC South and North look to have strong contenders in the wild card race. My homer side is picking the Bills here; the Cowboys don't have the same personnel as the Jets to shut down the Bills passing offense, and the run defense should be able to be exploited by Fred Jackson. My logical side is saying that the the Cowboys are at home, and even though they're missing Miles Austin, they have an explosive offense and plenty of talent on defense. The deciding factor for me, in the end, is that Dallas hasn't looked impressive against any good teams yet (besides one game against the Patriots which they managed to fumble away in typical Cowboys fashion.) I'm just not impressed, ever, by the Cowboys. So, without much logic behind it, I'm going with Bills. Let's hope my homerism is not once again misplaced, and the Bills actually come out to play- because a loss here would be damning for this season. Also, screw the Cowboys, their fans, their owner, and whoever called them "America's Team."
Pick: Bills win, cover

Houston (-3) at Buccaneers

Houston is rolling through the AFC South, and, with the Titans fall from contention, look to be a lock for the division. The Buccaneers seem allergic to scoring points and have no run defense. That's perfect for the Texans, who have Arian Foster leading the way on the ground and a decent passing offense without Andre Johnson. The Texans have a much better defense than last year, and the Buccaneers have none of the offensive explosiveness they seemed to show last year. It looks to be an easy game for the Texans.
Pick: Texans win, cover

Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5)

The Titans had a strong start to the season behind Matt Hasselbeck's unexpected career resurrection, but have fallen off their pace after the injury to Kenny Britt. The offense has nothing (hey, Chris Johnson, where are you?) and there's nothing special about the defense. Carolina is rested, coming off a bye, and they have Cam Newton (have you heard of him?). The Panthers have an awful defense, but against the Titans, it should be OK; and Cam Newton should keep doing Cam Newton things and win this game.
Pick: Panthers win, cover

Washington at Miami (-4)

I think it says a lot about John Beck that the Redskins can go into Miami, a 1-7 team who are 2-12 in their last 14 home games, and still be four point underdogs. The Redskins have just died after a 3-0 start. The Dolphins have been playing well enough to stay in games for a while, and finally pulled out a win last week in shellacking the Chiefs. I'll take the team that's made an effort versus the team that's dead in the water. Although I do think the Dolphins are crappy enough to let the Redskins hang around.
Pick: Dolphins win, Redskins cover

New Orleans at Atlanta (PK)

The Saints have an extremely efficient offense and a pretty bad defense; and they're prone to dropping games they should win. Atlanta has been inconsistent all year, but has managed to win three games in a row against opponents of varying quality. So far, I just know that Atlanta is no longer as dominant as they once were at home, and the Saints just look like a better team: more explosive on offense, better quarterback, and the defenses are just a draw. In the end, I'll take the Saints, even though they could easily drop this game.
Pick: Saints win/cover

Detroit at Chicago (-2.5)

The Bears have managed to figure out how to use Matt Forte, their defense is still making plays, and Jay Cutler has managed to survive and thrive despite his offensive line trying to kill him. The Lions shot out at the beginning of the season but have slowed down due to injuries; Jahvid Best is still not playing, and the offense has become somehow less than one dimensional (they just throw it to Calvin Johnson.) The Bears have seemed to figure it out, they're at home, and I see them taking this game.
Pick: Bears win, cover

St. Louis at Cleveland (-2.5)

If you hate yourself, you'll switch between this game and the Jags-Colts game during the 1 PM games. I can't say anything of note for these teams: both quarterbacks are kind of awful, both teams don't have any receivers of note (although Brandon Lloyd is trying to make a difference in St. Louis), and the defenses, well, they're both not very good. I guess I'll take the Rams in this one, if only because the Browns have too good of a record already at 3-5.
Pick: Rams win, cover

Arizona at Philadelphia (-14)

Despite the Eagles loss to the Bears last week, they still have incredible talent and have been playing much better since their horrid start. The Cardinals can only beat bad teams, and have John Skelton at QB, who managed a win last week only because of Patrick Peterson's heroics. I can't see John Skelton and the Cardinals horrible defense sticking around with the Eagles and their wealth of talent.
Pick: Eagles win, cover

Baltimore (-6.5) at Seattle

The line for this game is only so low because Seattle's at home and the Ravens have a terrible habit of dropping games against bad teams. The Ravens are clearly a better team than the Seahawks, and I feel like their big win over the Steelers last week should propel them through this game, even if they let Seattle hang around a little too long. Baltimore should pull away in the end. Seattle is just bereft of talent.
Pick: Ravens win, cover

NY Giants at San Francisco (-3.5)

The Giants were impressive last week in limiting the Patriots offense and engineering a last second drive to beat them. The 49ers have been impressive all year, with a stifling defense and a mistake free offense. When I look at this game, I think that the 49ers defense will be able to limit the Giants passing attack, but won't be able to stem it completely. The Giants defense, on the other hand, should be able to stop the 49ers offense, and that's why I like the Giants on the road. The 49ers are due for a let down, anyway.
Pick: Giants win, cover

New England at NY Jets (-2)

This one is huge for the AFC East. The Patriots are coming off two straight losses, something they seemingly never do. The Jets are riding high on a four game winning streak which has put them back at the top of the division (albeit in a three way tie). I'm taking the Patriots in this one, because I think their offense should be better than the Bills was last week and able to move the ball against the Jets. The Jets offense still didn't impress me last week; and while the Patriots defense is horrible, they can limit the Jets. I still see this as the Patriots division (although if the Bills can beat the Jets, they'll have something to say about that), and I find the Patriots suited to win this game. Plus, the Patriots NEVER lose three in a row. They won't let it happen, especially against these Jets.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

Minnesota at Green Bay (-13)

Minnesota was able to keep things close the last time these two played, but with more tape on Vikings QB Christian Ponder, that doesn't look likely to happen. The Packers are, offensively, unstoppable right now. There was a moment in last week's Packers game, where Aaron Rodgers was chased out of the pocket and rolled right. On the run, he whipped a forty yard pass to Jordy Nelson. It was unreal. No one can touch Rodgers right now, and as long as he's behind center, the Packers have a chance in every game. The Vikings aren't anywhere near elite, and they'll get blown out by this Packers juggernaut.
Pick: Packers win, cover

Season: 84-46 Overall, 66-62-2 ATS

Joe Paterno, Penn State, and Idealism vs. Reality

2011-11-10T12:11:00.000-08:00

Before I dive into some weighty matters, let me just put down my pick for tonight's Thursday Night Football game, so it can go on the official record:

Oakland at San Diego (-7)

Oakland is still without Darren McFadden, who was the main weapon in their offense. The recently acquired Carson Palmer has stepped into play quarterback, and has performed in a manner that is vintage 2010 Carson Palmer- sure, he can make some nice throws, but he's also going to throw some awful interceptions, and his arm strength is suddenly gone. The Chargers managed to keep it very close against the Packers despite 3 interceptions from Philip Rivers, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Sure, the Chargers defense looked silly against the Packers, but most defenses do. The Chargers seem to have hit a stride on offense, and the Oakland offense is nowhere near as good as the Packers. Looks like the Chargers should be able to break their three game losing streak, winning easily at home.
Pick: Chargers win, cover

Ok, massive switch in tone here, but here goes: Let's talk about the Penn State scandal and Joe Paterno.

As everyone knows by now, Jerry Sandusky, former defensive coordinator for the Nittany Lions, has been charged with 40 sex crimes against various youths in his "Second Mile" program, one which aimed to help impoverished children. This man had complete access to the youths and (allegedly, but the evidence is pretty overwhelming) abused his authority to gain sexual access to many underage children. This is obviously a horrible crime, and Sundusky has rightly been vilified; but now the story has mostly shifted from Sandusky to Joe Paterno, the long time head coach of the Nittany Lions.

Paterno, according to the legal briefs, was informed by a graduate assistant that Sandusky had been seen in the showers at the Penn State facility raping an underage boy. What the graduate assistant actually told Paterno is unclear (he might've said Sandusky was raping the boy or just doing sexually inappropriate things to him); what Paterno passed on to his superior, the athletic director of the school, was that Sandusky had been seen fondling or doing other sexually inappropriate things to an underage boy. And that's all Paterno did. Passed on the news to his superior, the bare minimum of what he was legally supposed to do. (In addition, he might've even downplayed the graduate assistant's report to his superiors.)

In the wake of this scandal, Paterno has been fired. In response to this, a good portion of the Penn State campus erupted into a riot, defending Paterno. They carry signs that say, "We love you, Joe!" and vilify the board of directors that ruled to fire him. Their main argument is that Paterno's been made the scapegoat for the whole mess, and that he deserves to have the whole legal process run through before any judgement can be passed. By then, say all the defenders, we'll know what was truly reported to him and what he did. Here's the issue: Joe Paterno became some weird, mythic father figure to a whole institution. He became the figure head of a school, the shining exemplar of how to run a college football program. Unfortunately, he made a huge mistake.

When we're young we idolize our fathers. Everything they do is perfect. But there comes a time when we realize that our fathers are fallible (sorry, Dad. I still think you're awesome, though.) That they make mistakes. It's certainly a shock for most people-no one wants to believe it, and they fight against it. But there comes a time when everyone must accept the facts: there is no perfect person. Humanity is rife with mistakes. Everyone has something they're hiding or wish they had done better; humans simply are never perfect. Joe Paterno made a mistake. Even if the report he got was only that there was fondling of a child, he (and the rest of the administration) had a moral obligation to report it to the police. If it was your kid, or if it was a relative of yours, you'd feel the same way: the bare minimum is not enough in this situation.

Joe Paterno was Penn State's father figure. He built the program into a model for college football programs and made sure his players got an education. On the way, he became a legend. These student riots are just people struggling against the realization that he's not perfect. You can still love the man for all his accomplishments as a coach and in building the Penn State program, but that does not excuse his mistakes. People don't reside on opposite sides of a good and bad, black and white moral spectrum. There's shades of grey. Paterno was built up to be something more than human, more than fallible; a white knight of pure good. But there's no one out there like that in reality. The sooner Penn State students can realize this, the better off they are. It's okay to love the man, but his faults must be recognized. "We love you, Joe!"Well, at least the idea of you, instead of the reality.

Week 9 NFL Picks: Welcome to the Gauntlet, Bills

2011-11-04T14:07:00.000-07:00

GET! OFF! ME!

I'm just going to try and pretend that the Sabres' Wednesday game against the Flyers did not happen. And that I didn't irrevocably jinx them with my optimistic little piece about them last week. All I can say is, Friday's game (as I'm writing, that's tonight) against the Flames shouldn't be this important, but it is. 7-5 seems like a gift from the gods as opposed to 6-6 at this point. They just need a win, a complete 60 minutes of hockey, to assay some long term fears that have started to crop up. If they lose, well, just wait for a sky-is-falling-already post. Suddenly having the highest payroll isn't such a good thing; the expectations are stifling.

Anyway, onto Week 9 in the NFL. The Bills stand at 5-2 and at the top of the division (via a glorious tie breaker over the Patriots). Now comes November, which very well might decide the Bills chances at a division title or a wild card. They play both their games against the Jets this month, and winning one or both of these games would be instrumental in crippling the Jets chances for the season (which would be wonderful). Sandwiched in between these two Jets games are away games at Dallas and Miami. One of them is not a worry (the Dolphins are allergic to winning at home, and the Bills would have to seriously play down to lose that one), but the Cowboys have talent on both sides of the ball that alternates between brilliant and awful, meaning the Bills could catch the Cowboys playing at peak-level, and the only thing that can stop that is Tony Romo "Romo-ing" the game away. Basically, the Bills have to beat the Jets at least once and go 2-2 or better in this four game stretch, which is certainly possible, but it won't be easy. Good teams win on the road. Good teams thrive in November. I'm hoping the Bills are truly a good team, built to play well over the whole season, and not just a first half flash in the pan. Yikes.

Last week I went 10-3 overall (nice!) but 6-7 ATS (good thing I'm not gambling). So maybe you should ignore that part where I try and pretend I can pick spreads.

Atlanta (-7) at Indianapolis

Atlanta's coming off the bye and off an unexpected (to me) win over the Lions. They may be boring, but at least they've figured out a way to win games. The Colts? They played dreadfully last week against a decent at best Titans team. They're well on their way to one or two wins, and in a dogfight for the first overall pick with the Dolphins (and if they get the 1st pick, the Colts have the luxury of either using it on Andrew Luck, and dumping an iffy Peyton Manning OR trading the pick for a boon of draft picks to rebuild themselves into a contender). Losing this game should be business as usual for the Colts.
Pick: Falcons win, cover

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-8)

Wait, what? An 8 point spread for a New Orleans team that a) just lost to the Rams in an embarrassingly bad performance and b) lost to Buccaneers earlier this year? The Buccaneers are a weird, inconsistent team, but they're better than the spread gives them credit for. Their defense was good enough to keep Drew Brees in check last time these two played, and if the offense was more consistent, the Buccaneers would have a better record. Still, I think New Orleans is going to come out angry after last week's awful performance and will be able to put enough points on the board to win, but the Buccaneers will hang around, as they've done in every game this season.
Pick: Saints win, Buccaneers cover

Cleveland at Houston (-10.5)

I don't think there's a more boring team than the Cleveland Browns. They have a pretty good defense (and it's not even an exciting defense, like, say, the Ravens or Steelers elite units) mixed with an awful, awful offense predicated on running the football down the middle with their big, bruising (read:boring) backs. They don't trust their presumed QB of the future enough to open up their game plan, and even if they did, they don't have any receivers who would crack the top two of most NFL teams (except the starved Jaguars, who just picked up Browns cast off Brian Robiskie. Pity those Jaguars.) Houston's got consistency issues, but even without the return of Andre Johnson, their offense should still be able to run the ball effectively and their improved defense should be more than enough to shut down the anemic Browns.
Pick: Texans win, cover

NY Jets at Buffalo (-2)

This game is huge for the Jets, who have won two straight to get back to 4-3 and in the thick of the playoff race. It's also huge for Buffalo, as they need the win to get the respect they crave and also solidify their place in the playoff race this season. A loss would be crippling for the Jets, and they know it, and so do the Bills. It's a huge divisional game. And I have no clear idea of how it's going to shake out. The Jets defense is not quite as good as it used to be, especially against the run, which means the Bills should be able to get a strong game out of Fred Jackson (who should be getting more MVP love, but the media is obsessed with quarterbacks). Alternatively, the Jets still have one of the best secondaries in the league, and have enough depth to effectively cover the Bills 4 and 5 receiver sets, which the Bills often use to set up the run. On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense showed improvement last week, but now face a better team. The Jets will be committed to running the ball on the Bills, clinging to the "ground and pound" strategy. The Bills haven't been as bad against the run this year as in years past, so it will be interesting to see if they can stop what has been an inconsistent (but potentially dangerous) Jets running attack. The Jets passing game has recently picked up, but Mark Sanchez is still prone to mistakes, which could benefit the Bills interception-hungry defense. There are favorable match ups for both teams that almost cancel eachother out; I have a hard time choosing. Screw it, I'm going with my heart: the Bills will be able to run the ball on this defense and put up points, and on defense force Mark Sanchez into some mistakes. For this season's sake, I hope so. Letting the Jets back into the division race is a scary prospect. Also, I hate the Jets and this win would make me giddy. So much hope here.
Pick: Bills win, cover

Miami at Kansas City (-4)

The Chiefs are the zombies of this NFL season, somehow dragging themselves from the dead back into the AFC West division race; no, it hasn't been pretty, but they've been brutally effective. On the flip side, the Dolphins are just dead. They don't even have zombie life. When they play well (like last week), they'll find a way to lose. No franchise could use Andrew Luck more than the Dolphins; and they certainly play like that.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover

San Francisco (-3.5) at Washington

Is Vegas fearful of this being a 'trap game' for the Niners? I watched the Redskins last week; their offensive line was one of the worst I've ever seen. They Bills had 10 sacks against them, which was 2.5 times more than they had ALL SEASON. The offense has no weapons without Tim Hightower and Santana Moss, and the defense is eminently beatable by the air or the ground. The Niners may be flying across the country, but they're a team that grinds out wins without mistakes. The Redskins should provide plenty of those in this game, and the Niners will improbably move to 7-1.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Seattle at Dallas (-11.5)

Forget last week's embarrassing 34-7 loss for the Cowboys; its the Seahawks, who have no running game, a terrible QB, and nothing special on defense. Oh yeah, they're not even at home, which is their only advantage. Dallas, barring an implosion, should be able to take care of business. Against the Seahawks, you don't need much more than talent, and the Cowboys have plenty of it (just no consistency and a tendency to blow games they seem poised to win).
Pick: Cowboys win, cover

Denver at Oakland (-7)

Nope, not even Tim Tebow being an awful quarterback will get him out of the news cycle. It's now become a conversation on Tebow's potential for the future and whether we can criticize Tim Tebow at all (because he's so openly Christian, does criticizing him constitute religious criticism?). Tim Tebow is now a worse version of Brett Favre. At least Favre was good at one point; Tebow is all story, no production. The last time the Raiders played, they were brutally shut out by the Chiefs and their quarterbacks put on a clinic about how to be atrocious, and they probably won't have Darren McFadden, their best weapon, for this game. No matter; Tebow is bad enough (but I'm ok with Christianity, just saying) that Oaklands big defensive front should be able to contain him, force some mistakes, and the offense, behind a less-rusty Carson Palmer, should be able to get the job done against a porous Denver defense.
Pick: Raiders win, cover

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-3)

I wasn't impressed at all with the Titans win last week; against the Colts, they won by two touchdowns, and one of their scores came from a blocked punt. Take that lucky score away and it's a one score game, against an awful Colts team. They don't have much on offense ever since they lost Kenny Britt and the defense is pretty good but far from dominant. The Bengals have a stingy defense and the offense manages to get just enough every week to get by; Andy Dalton is morphing into a pretty good quarterback and AJ Green is everything he was hyped up to be as a receiver. I don't think the Bengals are as good as their record indicates, but their slide won't happen until they start playing the Steelers and Ravens. They should be good enough to take this game against a scrappy but ultimately decent Titans team.
Pick: Bengals win, cover

St. Louis at Arizona (-2.5)

I wouldn't touch this game with a 1,000 foot pole as a viewer of good football games OR a gambler. How do you pick between two crappy teams? Which pile of NFC West manure is better? The Rams are still without Sam Bradford, but they managed to improbably beat up the Saints last week. The Cardinals built up a 21-3 lead over the Ravens last week behind some lucky plays and watched as it predictably vanished. I guess I'll take the team that played better last week. Also, John Skelton (yes, THE John Skelton, Fordham alum and terrible QB) might be starting for the Cardinals. Yikes.
Pick: Rams win, cover

NY Giants at New England (-9)

The Patriots defense is still awful. They have no cornerbacks of note; somehow the Patriots decided that cutting all the talent from that position would be a very "Patriots" move (they're always a step ahead of the game!) and they would end up looking like geniuses, but, no, they just have an awful secondary. Their offense is still good, but also limited by their lack of running game or deep passing threat. Despite all this, the Giants are on the road, don't have Ahmad Bradshaw (or they have Ahmad Bradshaw playing with a fractured foot), and while their defense has a good pass rush, their defense as a whole is just decent. The Giants will certainly be able to keep it close against the Patriots, but won't be good enough to pull out a win. The Patriots, after a loss last week, will return to business as usual. (Although I certainly hope the Giants win for the Bills sake, but that's hope and not intelligent picking. Shucks.)
Pick: Patriots win, Giants cover

Green Bay (-5.5) at San Diego

The Chargers cruised through the first quarter of the season to a 4-1 record, seemingly bypassing their usual early season woes. But no! They've just showed up later, as the Chargers have dropped to 4-3 behind some ugly performances in games they should've won. They have the talent to right the ship; but even if they do in this game, Green Bay is rested coming off a bye and have played a team in Madden's franchise mode- ridiculously good offense (that passes more than runs and spreads the ball all around) and a opportunistic defense that is sometimes burned. Simply put, they're on another level, and the Chargers have yet to find their optimal gear.
Pick: Packers win, cover

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)

After an embarrassing Week 1 loss to Baltimore and a slow start to the season, the Steelers have reverted back to the form that brought them to the Super Bowl last season. The defense still has elite potential, even if they don't play that way consistently, and the offense is now a pass happy machine that moves the ball according to what the defense gives them- a lot of deep balls, but they showed last week they can dink and dunk towards victory. The Ravens have played two bad games in a row, even if they managed to pull out a 27-24 win last week against the lowly Cardinals. The defense has been great; but the offense is faltering behind Joe Flacco's misfires. The Steelers defense is leagues better than the Cardinals, and the Ravens haven't shown an ability to get it done against good defenses lately. I think the Steelers will shut down the Ravens on defense and move the ball effectively against the Ravens tough defense. It'll be close, but I like the Steelers to get revenge.
Pick: Steelers win, Ravens cover

Chicago at Philadelphia (-7.5)

This by all accounts looks like an awful match up for the Eagles; they can't stop the run, and the Bears seemingly run every play through Matt Forte, even when they pass. (Forte says they're grinding him to a pulp and not giving him the money he deserves. Well, Chris Johnson pretty much lost all of Forte's leverage once he got his big new contract and has crapped the bed. Why give a contract extension to such a volatile position? *Fred Jackson winces.*) Anyway, despite this, the Eagles seem like they're starting to finally roll, utilizing the talent they have, especially LeSean McCoy. Even if their defense gets gouged by Forte, I still see their offense being enough to win this game. Chicago's defense is no longer elite and their offense is very one dimensional. Still, Forte can keep them in this one, with or without his new paycheck.
Pick: Eagles win, Bears cover

Season: 77-39 overall, 58-56-2 ATS

Week 8 NFL Picks + Some long overdue World Series/Sabres thoughts

2011-10-29T12:36:00.000-07:00

Just awesome. Even if you hate the Cardinals

Ok, so baseball is probably number three on my list of 'favorite sports,' and while I can always be suckered into watching a Cubs game on TV (and I can never deny the chance to actually go to Wrigley), if the Cubs aren't in it, then I lose interest. So much of a good baseball season is getting to know the players, their idiosyncrasies and their strengths and weaknesses. It's about listening to the local radio or TV guys and growing to love them in their homer-ism. The season is long enough to create these sustained storylines, and a playoff run is downright magical once you know so much about the team. With these playoffs, though, I had none of that connection. National broadcasts of teams that I frankly knew only on a surface level. (To be fair, I spend most of my summer in the woods, away from most baseball coverage, so I am at a disadvantage.)

The Cardinals are a hated rival of the Cubs, but damnit, I couldn't help but feel happy for them once Game 7 finished and they had won their 11th World Series. It's too good of a story to hate. The Cardinals were three games out of the playoffs with five games left in the season, managed to play themselves in (with some help from the free-falling Braves) and then beat the two best teams in the NL (the presumed favorite Phillies and the NL Central champion Brewers) en route to the World Series. Then came one of the best World Series of my lifetime. At first I held back from watching, because I didn't think I'd be interested (call me a bad baseball fan, fine, whatever), but the series pulled me in. Game 1 was an exciting 3-2 win for the Cards, Game 2 featured an ninth inning comeback by the Rangers for a 2-1 victory. I missed Game 3 up in the woods, but Albert Pujols showed off why he's one of the best of all time with a three HR opus. Game 4 feature Derek Holland's pitching gem that evened the series at 2 all. Game 5 was marked by Mike Napoli putting the team on his back as Tony LaRussa had communication issues with his bullpen, giving the Rangers a 3-2 lead in the series. Then came Game 6, which might be the most dramatic, best World Series game I have ever seen. It started sloppy, with both teams committing errors leading to a 4-4 tie. The Rangers pulled away to a two run lead behind back to back homers and seemed destined for their first title in the ninth inning, up 7-5. The Cardinals were down to their last strike. Literally. And they converted. There is nothing more dramatic than that- little kids dream about hitting home runs in the bottom of the ninth with only one strike left. That's something out of fairy tales. What happened next was, therefore even more ridiculous. The Rangers pulled away in the 10th, taking another two run lead, and the Cardinals, AGAIN down to their last strike, pulled back. Finally, in the 11th, they won on a walk off homer.

Sorry, who was saying baseball was boring? Because for every awful game of baseball we get, every four hour, 5-2 game, there's also brilliance like these games. Game 7 was nothing special- but of course, it had to follow Game 6, so it was dead from the start. But the Cardinals won. They were one pitch away from a losing the whole thing- twice. If you saw a movie with that sort of ending, you'd call it hacky or unrealistic. But we saw it happen. That's why we can still love baseball. There's no clock, nothing to tell us the game is over until the final out is recorded; there is an infinite amount of time for comebacks.

(Looks at roster) "What did I just get myself into?"

Onto some more Cubs-ish news, the Cubs successfully lured away Theo Esptein from the Red Sox (although it probably wasn't that hard to get him away from the circus that was the Red Sox over the last two months) and have installed him as the President of Baseball Operations (I love sports organizations, because they have ridiculous titles like that). Epstein promptly brought in a former protege of his, Jed Hoyer, to be the new GM. Listen, I'm very excited to have a new braintrust running the "Baseball Operations" of this team, because Jim Hendry has been struggling since 2008. He needed to be replaced, and Epstein and Hoyer are certainly sharper baseball minds at this point. But really, the unbridled optimism that has come with it needs to stop- there is a lot to fix on this team, and it won't be quick. Plus, we have no idea if Epstein and Hoyer will actually produce. Epstein was handed a pretty good team in 2003 when he took over the Red Sox, and then they won the World Series (twice). This Cubs team is nowhere near as good. They have no pitching ace and a weak rotation. The offense is a mess, with Starlin Castro being about the only consistently good hitter on this team. So it's going to take a ton of work to mold this team into a winner. And remember, Esptein was behind this summer's Carl Crawford deal, a mega contract which turned out to be a huge bust- something Cubs fans are used to (ALFONSO SORIANO...). Epstein is certainly not bulletproof. Hoyer's talent apparently comes in building a great farm system, which is a better move for the long term future, but he also presided over this year's Padres team, a 90 loss disaster. Things are looking better for the Cubs, but I wouldn't say anything is guaranteed. I guess we'll have to see in a couple of years. But watching last night's game, all I could think was, "I want that to be the Cubs. Sometime. Please." The waiting game will most likely continue.

Luke Adam and Captain Pominville celebrate a goal

Quickly onto hockey, where my beloved Buffalo Sabres have ripped out to a 6-3 start behind sterling play from their top line of Pominville-Adam-Vanek and an improving defense in front of a usually solid Ryan Miller (and finally, a dependable backup in Jhonas Enroth.) They started gang busters in Europe, with two wins over quality teams from the West, with eight goals over two games. The early season back in the States has been marked by some inconsistent play at home (two really annoying 4-3 losses) and mostly sterling play on the road. The team is rolling out three lines that can score, with the aforementioned top line doing most of the damage. Lindy Ruff's decision to put Luke Adam on the top line was brilliant- why not put the rookie with the best wingers and see what he can do? He's responded so far with three goals and five assists, giving the Sabres another dependable center that they desperately needed. The other lines are playing inconsistently but still are a threat to opposing teams, though free agent pick up Ville Leino has struggled early and asked to be moved back to the wing and Tyler Ennis was trying too hard with the puck before his ankle injury. Right now the top line is shouldering the load, but the other lines have enough talent to pick it up eventually, leading to a deep,dangerous scoring attack. The defense has markedly improved- Robyn Regehr is a pure defenseman who makes great plays in his zone. Ehrhoff has started slow but is a fixture on the power play and is no slouch on defense. Tyler Myers has had a maddening start to the season, littered with turnovers and bone headed mistakes, but it's early and he's adjusting to yet another new defensive partner. Jordan Leopold has stepped out as a very dependable fixture on D and the third pair of Sekera (who has played very well) and Gragnani (who is great on the power play but struggles in five-on-five) isn't being forced into big time, pressure situations. (I can only hope that Mike Weber starts to get more playing time instead of watching from the booth.) Ryan Miller has had some bad games, but has also been transcendent in stealing games from Montreal and a shutout in Florida. Enroth has been able to step in after poor Miller starts and get the job done. Overall, the team looks to be in good shape. If the offense gets more consistency from all the lines, the defense picks it up even more, and they can figure out whatever's ailing them at home, this should be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference for the rest of the season. That's a beautiful thing to think about. This is a quality team, built for success. I haven't seen too many of that in my personal fan experience.

The Face of A Franchise?

(Exhales). Alright. Onto the Week 8 NFL picks, as my Bills return from their bye week (more on that in the preview). Last week I went 7-6 Overall and ATS. Kind of a rough week, looking back, with some real swing and a misses (like the Titans). Well, it's over .500, so I can take that.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-8.5)

The Colts basically threw up a white flag in the first quarter of their game last Sunday and ended up losing 62-7 to the Saints. Which basically explains the size of this spread. But look at the Titans the last couple of weeks- they've imploded. Without Kenny Britt, the offense has stumbled behind the awful running of Chris Johnson and no pass game, and the defense has been destroyed. The Colts are an awful team, to be sure, but they can stay in this game. They've shown flashes of competence, and the Titans are nowhere close to the Saints. The Titans can bounce back this week for a win, but it won't be pretty.
Pick: Titans win, Colts cover

Jacksonville at Houston (-9.5)

Houston was supposed to have made some sort of grand statement last week in demolishing the Titans, but I'm still not convinced. This team is definitely good enough to win the AFC South (which is the second worst division so far), but they still lack, to me, a signature win that puts them among the NFL's elite. The return of Andre Johnson in this game, or soon, should help immensely, though. The Jaguars have a nasty defense, which uglies up the other team and keeps them in games. The Jaguars, even with their anemic offense devoid of talent at wide receiver, should be able to stick around long enough, thanks to Maurice Jones-Drew, to make the Texans sweat a little bit. Also, SHOUTOUT to loyal reader Ben Quazzo, a Jaguars truther who successfully predicted the Jaguars win in last week's column's comments. While the prediction might have been behind a layer of irony, you can't tell on the internet, so, good for you!
Pick: Texans win, Jaguars cover

Minnesota at Carolina (-3)

Christian Ponder actually showed a spark at QB for the Vikings last week, although it might've just seemed that good after seven weeks of Donovan McNabb. Ponder now goes on the road to take on the presumptive rookie of the year in Cam Newton, who has led the Panthers to two wins now and is good for about three or four awesome plays per game. It's scary to think about how good he is now and about how good he has the potential to be. The Panthers don't do much on defense, but their offense has been able to make up for it. The Vikings have a decent defense (with an awful secondary), and an offense that hasn't been trustworthy, especially since we haven't seen how Ponder will handle the road. In this case, I've got to take Cam and the Panthers to get the win at home.
Pick: Panthers win, cover

New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis

So, you saw the Colts-Saints game last week, right? The Rams are just as bad as the Colts, and are going without Sam Bradford this week. The Cowboys were able to trample the Rams last week, and I'd say the Saints are a step above the Cowboys in all respects. So, St. Louis, enjoy your World Series, because the Rams are brutal. Look for Drew Brees and co. to keep chugging along.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Arizona at Baltimore (-12.5)

Baltimore is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars. Suffice to say, they're going to be playing angry. The Cardinals D is a long ways off from being the Jaguars D, and the Cardinals offense with Kevin Kolb is just about as good as the Cardinals offense last year behind Derek Anderson. Which is to say, terrible. The Ravens should be able to fix any lingering offensive problems in this one.
Pick: Ravens win, cover

Miami at NY Giants (-9.5)

The Dolphins managed to lose a game last week that they were winning 15-0 in the final five minutes, in the process building the legend of Tim Tebow. That's a new level of futility. I feel like this team won't even fire Tony Sparano at this point because he gives them the best chance to lose and therefore get Andrew Luck. It's that kind of season in Miami. The Giants can be maddeningly inconsistent, but I don't think they'll be able to let this one slip; the Dolphins won't let them.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Washington at Buffalo (-5) (In Toronto)

Ah, the yearly Toronto game, the one which the Bills have never won since it started three years ago. The Rogers Centre is simply no home field- the fans are usually split 50/50 or are neutral observers. It's not a good atmosphere for a football game, and barely a Bills home game. The Bills are now entering the second half of the season off their bye with some lingering issues. They've lost Shawne Merriman for the season and the rumors about Kyle Williams are not optimistic. These two losses weaken an already poor defensive unit (Merriman wasn't getting much done on passing downs but he was an effective run stopper). I do think Arthur Moats should be able to step in and rush the passer effectively in Merriman's place. The offense is still good, and the return of key offensive linemen and receiver Donald Jones should help in the upcoming weeks. The Bills also just resigned Ryan Fitzpatrick for the long haul, establishing him as the face of the franchise. (I still worry that Fitzpatrick is streaky and maybe not fit for a long term role, but he's the best QB the team has had since Jim Kelly.) I would be worried about this game and all the injury trouble (especially on the offensive line), but the Redskins are starting John Beck at QB, lost Santana Moss for 5-7 weeks, and one of their running backs tore his ACL, leaving the team depleted on offense. The Bills defense might not be great, but they should be able to shut down the suddenly anemic offense of the Redskins, while the Bills offense should be able to put up points against a merely decent Washington unit. These are the games the Bills need to win in order to stay in what will be a crowded playoff hunt in the AFC.
Pick: Bills win, cover

Detroit (-2.5) at Denver

Detroit suddenly finds themselves slipping with two straight losses. Denver and their ~~walking religion metaphor~~ QB Tim Tebow managed to pull out an improbable 18-15 win last week over the Dolphins. Here's the thing, though- the Lions aren't the hapless Dolphins. Even without Matt Stafford (who's questionable at this point) and Jahvid Best, I would put the Lions above the Dolphins. Tim Tebow is, sorry, NOT a good quarterback- he has found ways to manufacture wins, but that's also come with the help of the rest of his team and in opposition to his poor mechanics and accuracy. Sometime, his luck has to run out, and I see it ending this week, even with the banged up Lions.
Pick: Lions win, cover

New England (-2.5) at Pittsburgh

This should be a great game. If you've listened at all to the hype building up to this one, you'd know that "Tom Brady OWNS Pittsburgh", going 6-1 in his career against Pittsburgh. I look at this one differently, though. Both teams have high powered passing offenses. The Steelers depend on the deep ball while the Patriots move down the field with ruthless efficiency in their two tight end sets. Now, the Steelers defense is not as good as it has been in years past, but I trust them way more to get a stop than the porous defense of the Patriots. They have better personnel, plain and simple. If the game comes down to a shootout, the Steelers have the better chance of making a stop. Which is why I like the Steelers to reverse the trend of Brady domination and win this one at home.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Cleveland at San Francisco (-8.5)

I've bought into the 49ers as a legitimate NFC contender, and they should definitely take the NFC West. Cleveland could only score six points last week against the Seahawks (and should've lost due to a Seahawks special teams TD that was called back). The Browns have almost no offense and the defense is no elite unit. The 49ers have a great defense and an offense that doesn't make mistakes and scores when they need to. No chance for Cleveland in this one.
Pick: 49ers win, cover

Cincinnati (-2) at Seattle

The Bengals have been a good enough team so far, winning behind a solid defense and the heroics of Andy Dalton (never thought I'd type that). They grind out victories. The Seahawks are usually awful, sometimes managing to fluke out a victory. What makes me hesitate is that fact that the game is in Seattle, where, somehow, the Seahawks become a tough team. I'm not 100% confident, but I'm going with Cinci, because the Seahawks are fresh off scoring three points in an entire game. Sometimes home field just isn't enough.
Pick: Bengals win, cover

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3)

Philadelphia is coming off the bye and looking to continue climbing up the NFC East standings, and I feel like they've had enough time to iron out some of the mistakes that were plaguing them in the previous weeks. The Cowboys are able to beat up on bad teams (the Rams) but can't find a way against good teams, showing a special ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Not sure why I still trust Philadelphia, but I think their talent wins out here and they can outscore Dallas, even with Dallas' good pass rush- Vick neutralizes that.
Pick: Eagles win, cover

San Diego (-3) at Kansas City

The Chiefs have stormed back from the grave to bring themselves back to respectability and back into the AFC West race. The Chargers have meanwhile stumbled through their season, managing to win unimpressive games against bad teams (like the Chiefs a couple of weeks ago) and losing to good teams (the Patriots and Jets). I'm still going with the Chargers here, because the Chiefs have risen from the dead with plenty of luck, playing some very poor teams and playing the Raiders last week with Kyle Boller at QB (followed by a fresh off the street Carson Palmer) and without their best player, Darren McFadden. The Chargers received a wake up call with last week's bad, give-up-a-comeback loss, and now, with the division in the balance, I see the Chargers winning this one even if the Chiefs manage to keep it somewhat close.
Pick: Chargers win, cover

Season: 67-36 Overall, 52-49-2 ATS

NFL Week Seven Picks: Relaxation Station

2011-10-20T10:01:00.000-07:00

I'm going to be relaxing in the woods this weekend. Ahhh.

Along with Week Seven comes the Bills' bye week, which means I can kick back and not nearly have a heart attack during every game. Honestly, the tension I feel during all these close games is not healthy. Too many emotions at once, too much tension, all wringing in my chest. Deep breaths. Deep Breaths. So I'm going to the woods this week. Fresh air, cool breezes, what have you.

Anyway, since I won't get to talk about in a preview, the Bills game last week was disappointing, but not too crushing- they lost to a solid team on the road. If Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't throw one of his two picks, the Bills probably win the game. The offense did well, but only in fits and stretches, showing a lack of consistency at some points. The defense was bad, bad, bad though. They couldn't get a pass rush (how much longer till Arthur Moats is on the field every third and long? Please?) and the pass defense was atrocious. If they weren't leaving guys open, our secondary was probably getting a pass interference call. As the game wore on, the run defense also broke down, critical in the late stages of the game when the clock is a key factor. The Bills definitely need this bye week to recover from injuries to key players such as Donald Jones, Kyle Williams, Shawne Merriman, Terrence McGee and a lot of the O-Line. In spite of the loss, though, they still look like a good football team, one that should be a joy to watch for the rest of the season. (Of course, in classic Buffalo fashion, there's always the chance they fail miserably.)

Anyway, onto the picks. Last week I went 8-5 overall and ATS. I definitely whiffed on some upsets, but...uh... you miss 100% of the shots you don't take? Also, an anonymous commenter (I have commenters!) stated that last week actually was a good slate of games and cited SF/DET, NYG/BUF, PHI/WSH, HOU/BAL and CAR/ATL as the best of the week. Well, with hindsight, two of those games were good- SF/DET and NYG/BUF, while PHI/WSH was a blowout, CAR/ATL was merely decent, and HOU/BAL was an exercise in red zone futility. (NE/DAL was no fun until the end.) It was also a weak week in that none of these match ups presented any natural rivalries or story lines to make the games more interesting (which was kind of what I meant at the beginning...). Either way... anonymous commenter, that shows you.

Chicago (-1) at Tampa Bay (London)

I really don't get the push to put games overseas or build a market in London. The NFL already is the most popular sport in the US. It doesn't need this extra fan base, unlike, say, basketball, which has moved into China with great success. American Football will never have a solid footing in Europe or England as long as there is Football (Soccer). It's a national and regional identity in England- you identify with the national squad and the hometown team at a level matched only by other Football (Soccer) loving countries. It can't be replaced. You can't rip the soul out of the people. And if not to replace it, why go to be the little sister of the Premier League when there are plenty more viable markets? Whatever, NFL. Keep shipping the Buccaneers over every year to play one schedule altering game a year.

As for the game itself, even without a true home field advantage, I still like the Buccaneers here. Last week they shocked me by scoring above 23 points (!) and beating the Saints, who I think are among the top three in the league. The offense is still troubling (they can't go deep), but the defense is solid. The Bears thwarted my too-cute upset pick on Sunday Night, and beat up on a poor, poor Vikings team. The Bears still have no offensive line and bad receivers that can be neutralized by decent coverage (which the Vikings did not have), and a defense with weak safeties. Looks like a Bucs win to me.
Pick: Buccaneers win, cover

Washington at Carolina (-2.5)

Say hello to your new Redskins QB, John Beck! Can't you feel the excitement coursing through your veins? No? Not yet? I honestly have no idea what anyone sees in John Beck- he's a very mediocre quarterback at best, nothing more than a game manager. The Redskins, apart from QB, didn't run the ball all too well against the Eagles and the defense was nothing special. The Panthers have Cam Newton, and they're at home, and I see that as enough to pick them to win this one. Their defense may be shaky, but it's not like John Beck is going to rip them apart.
Pick: Panthers win, cover

San Diego (-2) at New York Jets

The Jets played some ugly football and buried the hapless Dolphins, supposedly righting their proverbial ship. Still, it's the Dolphins, and with someone competent at QB, that game would've been closer. The Chargers are rested, coming off a bye, and typically get better as the season wears on. They're also welcoming back Antonio Gates, who is a huge part of their offense. Ryan Matthews should be able to run on the Jets D, and once that happens, the passing game will be opened up for Philip Rivers. On the other side, Mark Sanchez is still stumbling in his progression as an elite QB, and the Jets will struggle as long as they can't run the ball and have to rely on Sanchez.
Pick: Chargers win, cover

Seattle at Cleveland (-3)

The Seahawks are coming off the bye, having beaten the Giants, in New York, two weeks ago in a topsy turvy game. Cleveland has shown itself to be a wholly decent team- an average defense paired with an offense that is held back by its lack of receivers. I can't put any faith in the Seahawks yet- they've played better recently, but have so much potential to be awful. The Browns, on the other hand, just keep chugging along, scraping by a win every couple games, never in a pretty fashion. They should find a way to win again this week.
Pick: Browns win, cover

Houston at Tennessee (-3)

Tough one to figure here; the Titans got shellacked in their last game before the bye, struggling without Kenny Britt, and the Texans have faltered since losing Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. Both teams have struggled to stop the run, meaning that this one could be decided by Chris Johnson and Arian Foster. Foster's been the better back so far, but Chris Johnson is primed for a big game. What will probably be most important is the defense, and despite Houston's improvements on that side, I still think the Titans have the edge. Add in home field advantage and it looks like the Titans will take this big AFC South match up, but it should be close.
Pick: Titans win, Texans cover

Denver at Miami (-1.5)

God hath delivereth Tim Tebow, and now he gets his shot at the Broncos starting gig. Against any other opponent, I'd say he's bound to struggle, but this is the Dolphins, who made Mark Sanchez look competent. Miami is awful at home, as well, and seems to be in full on Suck for Luck mode- once you start Matt Moore at QB, it's almost a complicit admission. Denver's got Tebow and an OK defense, while Miami is a poorly coached disaster. See ya later, Tony Sparano (presumably as some team's coordinator)
Pick: Broncos win, cover

Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5)

Detroit lost for this first time in nine regular season games last week, and now it's up to them to respond to adversity. The Falcons took care of the Panthers, but I still haven't seen any week to week consistency out of the Falcons where they look like the elite team they were last year. They're passing game isn't what it was cracked up to be when they drafted Julio Jones, and Michael Turner is not quite as good as he used to be. The defense has major flaws, especially on the line. The Lions have a great passing game but are struggling on the ground after Jahvid Best's concussion. No matter, though- their nasty defense should be able to pick up any slack, and the Lions will be able to bounce back against the good but nowhere near great Falcons.
Pick: Lions win, cover

Kansas City at Oakland (-4.5)

While the Carson Palmer trade was arguably a terrible, terrible decision for the Raiders (trading two first rounders for a QB who hasn't been good since about 2007 is not a shrewd move), he's an improvement over Kyle Boller or any other healthy QB on the roster. They won't need to rely on him too much because the Chiefs are still bad- they've just managed to beat bad teams. They'll shoot down back to Earth in this game.
Pick: Raiders win, cover

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Arizona

Really surprised this line isn't higher, but I guess the oddsmakers like the Cardinals at home coming off the bye. Still, all evidence to this week points to Kevin Kolb being a bust as a starting NFL QB. The Steelers may have a weaker defense than years past, but their offense has started firing on all cylinders, and I don't see the Cardinals being able to stop them on defense or keep up with them on offense.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

St. Louis at Dallas (-12.5)

Dallas managed to fumble away another win last Sunday as they narrowly lost to the Patriots. This week, they have a luxury of playing a team that shouldn't even be able to stay in the game, especially if QB Sam Bradford doesn't play. With the addition of Brandon Lloyd, the Rams improved their horrible receiving core, but the rest of this team is just plain broken. Dallas should be able to easily capitalize on all the chances the Rams give them.
Pick:Cowboys win, cover

Green Bay (-9) at Minnesota

The Packers are clearly the best team in the league at this point, with an offense that has a multitude of weapons and a defense that can create pressure on the QB and force punts or turnovers. Minnesota is starting Christian Ponder in this game, and Christian Ponder looks like a newer version of Trent Edwards to me. The Vikings defense doesn't stand a chance against this Packers offense, and Christian Ponder is no team's savior.
Pick: Packers win, cover

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14)

Oh, pity the poor TV executives who have to schedule games so far in advance. With Peyton Manning, this would be a great offensive match up. Now it's just a game of polar opposites- the high octane Saints team with star QB at the helm vs. the slowly decaying corpse of the Colts, with perennial backup at the helm. The Saints don't have a great defense, but it's not like Curtis Painter has the ability to make them pay for it- so I see the Saints moving the ball with ease and winning with ease.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Baltimore (-7.5) at Jacksonville

I understand why TV executives would schedule Indy and New Orleans, but I do not at all get this match up from any stand point. This is one of the worst games of the week, and I could've seen that when the NFL released its schedule way back in the spring. Not sure why ESPN jumped on this one. Anyway, Baltimore has a great defense and a great running game, and Joe Flacco is slowly developing into a good QB (emphasis on slowly). The Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert, who's just a boring rookie QB, a criminally underused good running game, and a lack of playmakers on defense. This will be yet another Monday Night snoozefest.
Pick: Ravens win, cover

Season: 60-30 Overall, 45-43-2 ATS

Week 6 NFL Picks: The Worst Slate of Games Yet?

2011-10-15T13:25:00.000-07:00

Pretty much sums up the Bills win last Sunday. Fast Freddy Breaking Tackles

Week 6 this year is pretty bland. Looking at the schedule, there's only one game that jumps out- Dallas at New England- and even that is inflated because of the media's unabashed slobbering over either team. New England is the team that does it the "right way" while Dallas is "America's Team" filled with big name players who create media circuses with every interview. As per usual, I'll be sticking to the Bills game.

Last week I went 9-4 overall and 7-6 ATS. I completely whiffed on the Bucs, the Giants and the Titans. A little too heavy on the underdogs, but still, I was able to do pretty well.

St. Louis at Green Bay (-14)

The Rams could get as much time as they want before this game to prepare (beyond the bye week they just had) and I still wouldn't take them to even cover this game. They've put seven (!) cornerbacks on IR this year, which is roughly the amount of cornerbacks you need to guard all the receivers Aaron Rodgers throws to (12 different players caught a Rodgers pass last week). In addition, the Rams have been gouged by the run this year, and while the Packers aren't world-beaters on the run, James Starks and Ryan Grant should easily be able to open up holes in the defense. Aaron Rodgers can then rip his way through the tattered remains of the Rams secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Rams have no receivers to help Sam Bradford, and the running game is not too worrisome. If Green Bay can beat the Broncos by 29, its not hard to see them beating the Rams by 14+.
Pick: Packers win, cover

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-12)

Well, I certainly underestimated the Steelers last week. Even on an injured foot, Ben Roethlisberger was able to throw 5 TDs against what was considered to be a good Titans pass defense. Now they go up against the Jaguars, who are a worse version of the Titans, to be honest. A good running back (Chris Johnson for the Titans, Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars) a QB who you can't completely trust to win the game (Matt Hasslebeck, Blaine Gabbert), no receivers of note, and a decent defense. The Steelers ran roughshod over the Titans last week- and this week against the inferior Jags, it shouldn't be much different.
Pick: Steelers win, cover

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington

This game is brutally hard to pick. I watched the Eagles last week, and even for all the times they shot themselves in the foot, they had chances to win or tie that game- but of course their own mistakes got in the way. The offense is explosive- they have three good receivers and LeSean McCoy is a beast at running back. The offensive line, though, stinks. The Bills anemic pass rush looked halfway decent against them. The defense on the Eagles is especially susceptible to runs up the middle, and the corners, while talented, are stuck in a zone coverage system that hampers them. Also, they can't tackle well. As for the Redskins, they lost in a snooze fest to the Cowboys and had trouble beating the Cardinals and Rams. The Eagles have to put it together sometime, right? There has to be a game where they win in spite of their mistakes, or don't make as many, and their talent wins out. The Redskins don't have quite an explosive enough offense (Rex Grossman at QB is a worry, and the backs are a mishmash of spare parts, able to excel in Mike Shanahan's system). I could see Philadelphia screwing themselves out of it, but I guess I'm going with the Eagles to finally pull it together.
Pick: Eagles win, cover

San Francisco at Detroit (-4)

San Francisco blew out Tampa Bay last weekend, completely surprising me in the process. The team is far and away the best in the NFC West (which isn't much, but still). The team has a great defense and runs the ball well on offense. Somehow, Alex Smith hasn't imploded at QB yet. The Lions, meanwhile, have a scary front seven and a dangerous offense- Matthew Stafford merely has to chuck it up, and Calvin Johnson usually comes down with it. Jahvid Best showed improvement last week at running back. As much as I like the 49ers to win their division, I can't see them winning on the road against a quality Lions team. Not with Alex Smith at QB...I still can't trust him, not yet.
Pick: Lions win, cover

Carolina at Atlanta (-4)

Atlanta hasn't impressed anyone this season- after a strong start to their last game, going up 14-3, the Falcons completely folded. They bet the farm on this season, trading away a future first rounder for Julio Jones, but the offense hasn't been good even with Jones and the defense is eminently beatable. They've taken a step back since last year. The Panthers are the best 1-4 team in the NFL, staying close in every game against some quality opponents. This week, I see the Panthers pulling out another win- Cam Newton has been outrageously good, and should be able to make up for their weak defense.
Pick: Panthers win, cover

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7)

The Bengals have a great defense and Andy Dalton is good enough to win games in the clutch with the help of stud receiver AJ Green. The Colts, even with the improvement of Curtis Painter at QB, have found ways to consistently lose games- the defense just isn't good enough. The Bengals should be able to pull this one out pretty easily, because they've shown the ability to shut down better quarterbacks than Curtis Painter and have the offense to beat the weak Indy defense.
Pick: Bengals win, cover

Buffalo at NY Giants (-3)

The Bills showed last week the ability to run the football and score points. The main problem they face is the passing game- they're now suddenly thin at receiver and weren't trying any deep shots, which allowed the Eagles to press their coverage, which choked the passing game. The Bills need to go deep occasionally to keep defenses honest and open up holes for short throws and Fred Jackson to run. The defense has shown the ability to create turnovers, but I'm not sure they'll be able to do that every game, so they need to find a way to shut down opposing offenses and rush the passer more consistently. Luckily, the Giants D looks susceptible to the passing game (even against the Seahawks) and is missing some key players on the defensive line. The Giants offense can't run the ball but has a dangerous passing game. Eli Manning, though, is susceptible to mistakes. Overall, I think it's a favorable matchup for the Bills, and I see them taking this one on the road. Yep. Still irrationally confident.
Pick: Bills win, cover

Houston at Baltimore (-8)

Houston's lost Andre Johnson for the next couple of weeks and Mario Williams for the rest of the season, limiting their offense and their seemingly improved defense. The Ravens are coming off a bye week, are playing at home, and have a more potent defense. The offense, if Joe Flacco is on his game, is highly efficient, especially with Ray Rice at running back. The Ravens look like a team on the rise with smooth waters ahead; the Texans look to have choppy waters ahead, even if the AFC South has never been easier to win.
Pick: Ravens win, cover

Cleveland at Oakland (-6.5)

The Raiders are playing tough, "classic Al Davis football" (writers are stretching for that point now)- run the ball, play tough defense, and capitalize on big downfield throws. The Browns, even off a bye week, have a weak offense- if Peyton Hillis is shut down on the ground (which the Raiders can do), Colt McCoy has no weapons at receiver. The defense is nothing special. All this leads to another Raiders win.
Pick: Raiders win, cover

Dallas at New England(-6.5)

The Cowboys have talented players on both sides of the ball, to be sure- Miles Austin and Dez Bryant make up one of the best receiving cores in the NFL, and DeMarcus Ware is a premier pass rusher. Unfortunately, they have a weak running game and a weak secondary, and Tony Romo is always good to fail in the clutch with a back breaking interception. The Patriots have a horrible defense, to be sure- susceptible to the pass and run- but their extremely effective offense has been able to make up for it. The Cowboys should be able to keep this one close with their passing attack, but in a close game, can you put any faith in Tony Romo?
Pick: Patriots win, Cowboys cover

New Orleans (-5) at Tampa Bay

The Saints can score at will behind Drew Brees and their multifaceted offense, scoring above 22 points in every game so far. The Buccaneers offense has stalled, never putting up more than 24 points in any game. I don't see the Buccaneers defense being good enough to stop the Saints, and the Bucs just can't score enough. It's that simple.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Minnesota at Chicago (-2.5)

When I look at this game, all I can think of is the image of Jay Cutler sulking after being sacked yet again by Jared Allen and the Vikings pass rush, while the Bears defense gets gashed by Adrain Peterson (last week, Jahvid Best was able to rip to shreds the Bears D). Even if Donovan McNabb is playing like he's been possessed by some terrible-QB-spirit, the Bears lack of an offensive line and the Vikings ability to stop the run (Matt Forte is the only weapon the Bears have) should be enough for the Vikings to take this one.
Pick: Vikings win, cover

Miami at NY Jets (-7)

It is so tempting to take the Dolphins in this game- the Jets are imploding under their own hype and beginning to fight amongst themselves, and the play of Mark Sanchez has never been so deliciously poor. A loss to the Dolphins would put the Jets in a beautiful tailspin. The Dolphins, though, are starting Matt Moore in this game. And they're on the road. So while I'm hopeful the Dolphins pull it off, it's hard to see my fantasy coming true. They can't stop anyone and the offense should be somehow worse with Moore at the helm. And, wow, another awful Sunday/Monday Night combo. Yeesh.
Pick: Jets win, cover

Season: 52-25 Overall, 37-38-2 ATS

Week 5 NFL Picks: Going with the Dogs

2011-10-08T14:41:00.000-07:00

Hopefully what Michael Vick looks like all day Sunday. Or Not Playing.

Week 5, the first of the bye weeks, is also being billed as "Make or Break Week," yet another way for the media to drum up excitement for this week's slate. There are no natural big rivalries, so we're contrived to the first of many "This is it!" weekends in football. Because a team that falls into 1-4 or 2-3 HAS NO CHANCE OF EVER MAKING THE PLAYOFFS. Or, in the case of the Bills, a loss to the Eagles will definitively prove that the Bills are PRETENDERS. Barf. Sometimes I hate sports media. It's too early, still. We're not even halfway through October. Some teams wake up. Some teams fade. Week 5 can give us a glimpse, a further clarifying of what we've seen so far, but this early, it will never be the definitive end all, be-all. For instance, the Bills started 0-4 through 5 in 2004, were 3-6 at one point, then rattled off 6 straight victories followed by a loss that excluded them from the playoffs. Still. Things swing. Also, the 2001 Patriots started 1-3, were stuck at 5-5 at one point, then never lost again that year en route to the Super Bowl.

So, yeah, sorry for lowering the stakes this week. It's a long season. Last week, in my picks, I went 12-4 overall and 10-6 ATS. I'm getting better! Let's see if this newfound confidence completely crumbles in my face. After writing this out, I realized I picked a lot of road underdogs. There's always one week in the NFL where the 'dogs go wild, and I guess I'm choosing this week as the one.

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2)

Yikes. Unless you're a fervent fan of either team (which has been a rough experience so far), there is no reason to watch this game. There isn't even a compelling fantasy player to watch, because starting Colts or Chiefs at this point means your team is probably pretty awful. The Chiefs managed to grab their first win against the Vikings this week, even with their coach and QB getting into a nasty spat on the sidelines. Maybe dissension is the key to victory? The Colts, meanwhile, showed some life against the Bucs, keeping the game close at Curtis Painter looked to be halfway decent at QB. I can't choose one team as clearly better, but I'll take "competitive against good teams" over "wins against the dysfunctional Vikings, blown out otherwise."
Picks: Colts win, cover

Arizona at Minnesota (-3)

Interesting game here, in that either team cannot be trusted at all. In picking this game, you have to choose between the crappiness of the NFC West or the crappiness of Donovan McNabb and the Vikings. Kevin Kolb has decidedly not been the savior he was anointed before the season, and the Cardinals have no defense. The Vikings have the corpse of Donovan McNabb at QB, a shell of the defense they once had, and Adrian Peterson is seeing about 12 defenders in the box every time he lines up. Both the QBs in this game were passed over by the Eagles, and its not hard to see why. Once again, with no clear indication of a better team, I guess I'll take the Vikings, at home, with the better offensive weapon in Adrian Peterson, over the decent-for-the-NFC-West (awful everywhere else) Cardinals.
Pick: Vikings win, cover

Philadelphia (-3) at Buffalo

When you're a media created "Dream Team" that's built up to run roughshod over the league, when things go wrong, well, a lot of people are going to be gleefully clapping, watching it all fall apart. Whenever the Eagles lose, it seems as if 20% of SportsCenter (or, SportsCentre, in Canada- but they focus on hockey over everything) must be committed to analyzing every facet of the Eagles game and why they came up short. In their typical hyperbolic manner, this Week 5 game against the Bills has become the crux of the Eagles season. Losing this game means that the Eagles are DONE. To be sure, they need a win after a disastrous 3 weeks- but as Chan Gailey said, "Every team needs a win." The Eagles are going to come out hard in this game, to be sure, and Mike Vick and LeSean McCoy might just have a field day against the Bills defense. But the Bills aren't lacking for motivation either- they've seen how quickly the media gives up on them after a loss to the Bengals, and they're now the underdogs again, fighting for respect. They're more comfortable in that role. Add in an Eagles defense that can't stop the run and hasn't been stellar against the pass, and, well...I see the Bills taking this one at home. It's irrational confidence, sure, but the Bills have the talent to bounce back from their loss and they have a great matchup with the shaky Eagles D/weak offensive line that might allow the Bills to actually get a pass rush.
Pick: Bills win, cover

Oakland at Houston (-5)

Even after last week's win over the Steelers, I'm not sold on the Texans. They let a battered Steelers team back into the game, lacking the killer instinct to just put them away. It worked against the Steelers, but against better teams, it will haunt them. In addition, they lost Andre Johnson, which will undoubtedly affect the offense until he comes back. The Raiders are perfectly suited to take this game- they play a physical style that should overwhelm the more finesse Texans team. They can stop the run, and the Texans will be relying on the run as a focal point without Andre Johnson. The Raiders will also be fired up, playing in memory of their deceased owner, Al Davis. You can't beat that kind of motivation.
Pick: Raiders win, cover

New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina

Carolina and QB Cam Newton have been highly effective at scoring points in garbage time to give the illusion of a close game- Bill Simmons dubbed Newton "the King of Backdoor Covers," which is the best we can say for him. He has gaudy stats so far, but also throws some backbreaking interceptions and has one win to his name over four games. While some of that can be attributed to the weak Panthers defense, he hasn't shown the ability to win in spite of his defense- yet. The Saints have an offense that will victimize pretty much any defense, and they should have a field day against the Panthers. The defense has been decent, and loves to blitz- which might throw off Newton. Either way, I can't see the Panthers getting much closer than a TD in this game, which makes the line pretty convenient. Even with Cam "the Garbage Man" Newton's late heroics, I still don't think he can keep up with the Saints for 60 minutes.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-2)

The main lesson I got from last week was that the Bengals have a pretty good defense and Andy Dalton has the ability to be a pretty good QB in the NFL (especially with AJ Green as his #1 target). The Jaguars just look like a mess. Blaine Gabbert hasn't shown much at all, the team abandons the run for no reason, the defense is at best decent, and the team can't even paint the arrows on the field the right way. Also, the team can't sell out the stadium- they're back to using big tarps to cover up whole sections. Bengals should be able to slog their way to a win here.
Pick: Bengals win, cover

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-3)

The Titans have looked the more impressive team over the first four weeks of the season, and might give Houston a run for the AFC South crown. The Steelers, meanwhile, have been able to beat cruddy teams (the Colts, Seahawks) and lose to quality teams. So far, Tennessee has been a quality team, even without Kenny Britt. There's always the feeling that the Steelers will go back to being the same old Steelers and start winning ugly, but I don't see it happening quite yet, especially with Ben Roethlisberger hobbling on a sprained foot against the Titan's solid defense.
Pick: Titans win, cover

Seattle at NY Giants (-9.5)

Pretty simple here. Seahawks, on the road,when all they have going for them is their home field advantage. The Giants might just be a decent team (they looked as if they were trying to lose Sunday), but against the Seahawks, it should be more than enough.
Pick:Giants win, cover

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3)

Tough one here. The Niners had an impressive comeback last week and looked invigorated by coach Jim Harbaugh, but I don't trust them yet- something about Alex Smith at QB still makes me queasy. The Bucs haven't seemed to hit their stride yet, but keep winning games by performing well in clutch situations. At the very least, I trust Josh Freeman over Alex Smith, so I'll go with Tampa here, but I could definitely see the Niners hanging around with their solid defense.
Pick: Bucs win, cover

NY Jets at New England (-7.5)

The Patriots are a machine on offense- they move with ruthless efficiency, showing no mercy to defenses, picking away with throws to Wes Welker and their Tight Ends. The only thing derailing them is their shoddy defense. Fortunately for them, they're going up against the Jets, who look offensively inept right now. They can't get a running game going, and Mark Sanchez is crumbling under the pressure of putting the game on his shoulders. The Jets defense has remained solid, but is showing cracks- they're not the imposing unit they were two years ago. The Jets luck is seemingly on short supply this year, thank God, and the Patriots don't deal with luck. They just produce. It will be too much for the Jets to handle- they won't be able to keep up even if their offense starts working. Also, Tom Brady and the Patriots are furious after last season's playoff loss to the Jets. Throw in a poorly timed Mark Sanchez pick here or there, and it all spells a humbling defeat for the Jets.
Pick: Patriots win, cover

San Diego (-3.5) at Denver

San Diego has waltzed to a 3-1 record behind an easy schedule, as opposed to their usual slow, 1-3/0-4 starts. This is a team that usually gels as the season goes on, getting stronger with each game. The Broncos, to me, are the definition of a 6-10 team- they'll stick around in some games, win against bad teams, but they'll be crushed by the elite. They just have an overwhelmingly boring roster, full of pretty good players but no one special. San Diego's going to start playing at an elite level sometime, and this week seems as good a time as any to start.
Pick: Chargers win, cover

Green Bay (-5.5) at Atlanta

Atlanta has bounced between extremes this season, never gaining any semblance of consistency. Something's just not clicking on offense, yet, and the defense is still not an imposing unit. Still, they always play well at the Georgia Dome. The Packers have run wild over the league, and Aaron Rodgers truly hit his stride last week with a monster performance against the Broncos. While I'm not sold on the Falcons as Super Bowl contenders, they play well enough at the dome to stay in this game, while the true Super Bowl contender wins it. The Packers are every bit as good on offense as the Patriots and have a better defense. Good luck, rest of the NFL.
Pick: Packers win, Falcons cover

Chicago at Detroit (-5)

The Bears finally figured out how to be successful on offense- don't even try to have Jay Cutler throw behind his porous offensive line, just give it to Matt Forte. The Lions, meanwhile, completed an epic 20 point comeback against the Cowboys, perhaps cementing their status as NFC playoff contenders. The Lions are hosting their first Monday Night Football game since 2001, and the atmosphere will be electric. Nick Fairley might play, making Detroit's front seven even stronger. Last week, the Panthers were able to stay close to the Bears despite the Bears getting a Special Teams TD and a Defensive TD- not something you can count on every game. The offense will struggle if Matt Forte can't run the ball effectively, and the Detroit front seven can stop the run. The Lions have the offense (throw it to Calvin Johnson) to beat the Bears, and the defense should be able to clamp down on the Bears running game. Viva le Detroit!
Pick: Lions win, cover

Season: 43-21 overall, 30-32-2 ATS

The Buffalo Bills: Just the Same but Brand New

2011-10-03T16:42:00.000-07:00

Pretty emblematic of the day. If only I could photoshop Leodis McKelvin getting burned in there.

Complacency is a dangerous feeling, especially for the Bills. To feel comfortable with your surroundings, to feel at ease- well, it creates opportunities to fall. Once you put your guard down, it's pretty obvious that it's easier to be struck. I don't know if the Bills got complacent Sunday; but I know I and most other Bills fans did. Watching that game, with the Bills up 17-3 at half, I actually believed that the Bengals had no chance of coming back. To that point, the Bills had played a pretty awful first half, only starting to look good by the end of the second quarter, and still had a fourteen point lead. In the previous two games, the Bills had shown a propensity to make brilliant halftime adjustments and ignite the offense and defense. During the first half, even, the Bills had completely harassed Andy Dalton into two picks, and the Bengals had no running game to speak of. This looked like signed, sealed, delivered, 4-0.

Unfortunately, the Bills looked as if they had the same thought process, like they took the second half easy and couldn't believe what was happening. They had no focus; they let the Bengals take control of the game. They got Buffalo Bills'd (from the past two weeks.) Once the Bengals hit the field goal to make it 17-6, I began to worry, because it was so clear to see how much momentum the Bengals had gained. The defense continued to put Leodis McKelvin on A.J. Green (I'm not sure how the coaching staff hasn't seen that HE IS THE WORST COVER CORNER WE HAVE AND HE CANNOT BE PUT ON ANY #1 OPTIONS), which predictably burned them, and also showed the maddening trait that the Bills have had for seemingly my whole life- they didn't cover the tight end. One thing a rookie QB like Andy Dalton loves is a tight end as a safety valve. Not only that, this is Jermaine Gresham, a talented, big tight end who serves as one of the top targets. The Bills, instead of adjusting the way they did last week (by doubling Ron Gronkowski against the Patriots), simply let him be single covered by linebackers or safeties and he burned us. Also maddening was the complete folding of the run defense- as the second half rolled on, the Bengals just decimated the Bills with huge chunks of yardage on the ground. The defense, as a whole, failed. No pressure, couldn't stop the run, couldn't stop the pass.

No less blame can be put on the offense, who were awful in the second half, mustering three points. When they got those three points to make it 20-13, well, then I was even more worried, because a touchdown could've sealed the game; but a field goal keeps them right in it, hanging around. They let the Bengals hang around. The run game was bad- Fred could not get it going due to interior penetration by the Bengals line, and the Bills never tried anything on the outside, it seemed. The line also failed to give Fitzpatrick time on a lot of throws- even in an offense predicated on quick drop backs and quick routes, the Bengals still made Fitzpatrick's life miserable. Fitzpatrick himself was the erratic quarterback we saw at times last season, with the main problem being inaccuracy and a propensity to wing it long on third and short. Fitzpatrick usually starts games slow, and then heats up; but this time, he couldn't get it going. (Good thing we haven't signed him to that big contract yet, right?)

There's a point to be made about the officiating. Yes, it was terrible for the Bills. That 3rd down completion to Stevie Johnson that was called off was one of the worst calls I've seen in an NFL game. The Bengals secondary looked to be mugging our receivers down field, with no calls. And there were some times our rush was stifled by clear holding. But here's the thing- we've been the beneficiary of good calls so far this year, and the pendulum swings both ways. Also, good teams win in spite of penalties, and the Bills had more chances to win this game. While it didn't help, the Bills are to blame most for this loss.

The game was a classic punch in the mouth to the fan's optimism and to the budding status of the Bills as contenders. The Bills fell right into the proverbial 'trap' game. It was a stern reminder that this season will not just be fourth quarter come backs and gaudy point totals. No season comes without lows. It's also a test. For this was a classic Bills loss- take the lead and then bumble it away; how the team responds will show the fans if this team is any different from the prototypical Bills team. For many past teams, this would be the beginning of a downward slope, one loss feeding into the next one, a self fulfilling prophecy of losing. But there's a chance to take this game, learn from the mistakes, get motivated by it, and use it to get to greater heights. Early returns have been favorable: the team is certainly acting like a team motivated to kill the Eagles next week and regain the respect they scratched and crawled their way towards. We've seen the talent this team has; it's playoff calibre. Now it's time to see whether, mentally, it's the same old disappointing Bills or something brand new.

(St. Vincent is awesome, and this song is a good summer-upper)

Week 4 NFL Picks

2011-09-30T13:53:00.000-07:00

Week 3 of the NFL was AWESOME. Besides the Bills literally unbelievable comeback against the Patriots, which might be the best Bills game I've ever seen in my life, there was:
-A monsoon during a football game! (Panthers-Jaguars)
- The excitement of the Texans-Saints game, a 40-33 barnburner with some gaudy throws by Drew Brees and seeing the Texans fail in the clutch yet again
- The Lions coming back from a 20 point deficit to beat the Vikings (who have led at halftime of all their games, and lost all three- call them the bizzaro Bills). The Lions improved to 3-0.
- ~~The 49ers Bengals and Seahawks Cardinals games~~... nope. Nevermind. Let's never speak of this again.
-Michael Vick getting absolutely battered by the Giants defense. When you watch Vick, you're either watching the most talented football player in the league do amazing things, or watching the most talented player in football get beaten to a pulp and trying not to scream at his offensive line.
-The Dolphins lost! The Jets lost! The Bears lost!
-Ok, sorry, it had to make the list twice, but the Buffalo Bills came back from a 21-0 deficit, picked off Tom Brady 4 times (and made him cut his hair), out Belichek-ed Belichek with halftime adjustments and playcalling, and won on a drive in the final two minutes. THESE THINGS DO NOT HAPPEN.

So, on, on to week 4 the NFL moves forward. This is one of those weird weeks the NFL scheduled during the lockout in case they missed games- meaning there are no divisional match ups. There are a couple of good match ups to be had out of it, though. Last week I went 10-6 overall and 8-7-1 against the spread. Not bad.

Detroit at Dallas (-1.5)

Dallas has shown me pretty much nothing over the last 3 weeks. They bumbled away victory against the Jets, struggled to beat the 49ers, and then beat the Redskins by hitting six field goals. With no touchdowns. (Meanwhile, Ron Jaworski, in the MNF booth, was giving Tony Romo the most ridiculous tongue bathing I've ever heard. Made it sound like Romo's no TD performance was one for the ages. Ugh). Detroit has shown the ability to win from behind and when they're not playing at their best. They have an explosive offense led by WR Calvin Johnson, and the defense is absolutely nasty up front. I don't care if the Cowboys claim they're going to put tons of coverage on Johnson- the Lions still have Jahvid Best at running back, Nate Burleson as a capable if not exceptional #2 option at receiver, and Brandon Pettigrew as a solid tight end. The Cowboys don't have Miles Austin back at receiver, Dez Bryant is playing through an injury, and the running game has been slow to develop. Dallas doesn't have the weapons on offense to match Detroit right now, and it will take a monumental effort from their defense to win this game, an effort I don't think Dallas has in them. Detroit to 4-0.

Pick: Lions win, cover

New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville

In the lead up to the NFL draft, I did some low level film study of Blaine Gabbert, the Jaguars presumed quarterback of the future, and even I could see that he had serious "happy feet"- he was not comfortable in the pocket. It's fitting, then, that the Blaine Gabbert era in Jacksonville began with a safety, as he ran back into the endzone and was summarily sacked. It'll take a while for Gabbert to be good if he continues with that. With no threat at QB, the Saints can stack the box against Maurice Jones Drew and make Gabbert beat them. On the other side, the Jaguars don't have much of a chance against Drew Brees and the Saints absurd offense. Most defenses don't, to be fair.

Pick: Saints win, cover

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9)

Philadelphia has bumbled their way to a 1-2 start, looking like a team not quite ready for all the hype that's been placed on them (to be fair, a lot of it was self inflicted). Michael Vick has played fine- when he's played. Otherwise he's been off the field, nursing any amount of injuries due to a porous offensive line and Vick's propensity to take hits. The defense has looked just as porous- the linebackers seem to be apparitions, as opposing running backs run right through them. Despite all this, they face the 49ers, a team that looks only good enough to win the NFC West. If you haven't been paying attention, that's not a good thing. The Eagles need a win to right their ship, and the 49ers have arrived at a perfect time. Don't like the big line, though. Philly hasn't shown dominance yet.

Pick: Eagles win, 49ers cover

Washington (-2) at St. Louis

Well, I'm sure a lot of people would like to get a mulligan on predicting the rise of the Rams as NFC West champions. They look downright broken right now. Sam Bradford can't seem to handle a snap at this point (3 fumbles returned for touchdowns in 3 games), always a promising sign for a presumed franchise QB. The Redskins were stuck in the dirge that was their MNF game against the Cowboys last week, but at least showed they had a decent defense and they've previously shown some offensive spark. As long as Good to Middling Rex Grossman shows up for this game, the Redskins should be fine against the sputtering Rams.

Pick: Redskins win, cover

Tennessee at Cleveland (-1)

Pretty uneasy about this game, because we have yet to see how the Titans will respond to the loss of their biggest offensive weapon in Kenny Britt. The Browns have gotten to 2-1 as a result of the Colts no longer having a viable offense and the Dolphins being...well, the Dolphins, and choking away a game. I think the Titans have a pretty good defense, and Matt Hasselbeck should be able to find other options than Britt with receiver Nate Washington leading the charge. And if Chris Johnson manages to wake up from his sleepwaking through the past three weeks, well, this should be an easy game for Titans. Even without him, they can still beat the Browns, who look to be the quintessential 7-9 team this season. Decent, but nothing special.

Pick: Titans win, cover

Buffalo (-3) at Cincinnati

Welcome to 2011, where the Bills are road favorites! While many people have touted this game as a possible trap game (myself included...), I can't see the Bills losing this one. They still seem to have this hunger in them- they want to keep proving to the league that they're not to be taken lightly. They love the attention they're getting, but coach Chan Gailey has warned them about media attention- it's gone once you start to lose, especially games you should win. The Bills have won the past 10 meetings with the Bengals, including last year's thrilling 49-35 comeback win. The Bengals are now led by a rookie QB (Andy Dalton) and an accused criminal at running back (Cedric Benson). Good old Bengals. The Bengals boast one of the best defenses in the league, statistically, but they've also played the Browns, Broncos and 49ers- and Willis McGahee shredded them on the ground in the Broncos game. Yes, Willis McGahee. Fred Jackson and the rest of the offense should do just fine against the defense, and I feel like the Bills defense might finally dial up some pressure on an opposing quarterback this week.

Pick: Bills win, cover

Minnesota (-2) at Kansas City

Oh, the wretched 0-3 game of the week. One of these teams will be put behind the eight ball early in this year's race for the worst record in the league and, ipso facto, Andrew Luck. Because one team improbably will win this game. The Vikings have been masters of fast starts and crumbling finishes; the Chiefs have been the masters of slow starts...and slow middles...and slow finishes (though they did manage to keep it close with the Septemeber Chargers last week). The Vikings, if they're smart, will just pound the ball with Adrian Peterson from start to finish. I can't guarantee that the Vikings will be smart (they've been iffy the last three weeks), but that's what I think they'll do, and Kansas City will slip a little further into oblivion. Kansas City just doesn't have the personnel or game plan to compete with anyone right now.

Pick: Vikings win, cover

Carolina at Chicago (-6)

In my gut, I see a trend here- this is the game the Bears lose, at home, which sends the fans into catalectic rage. My 18 years in Chicago have given me enough a sense of these things. It's just a feeling, but I can see Cam Newton, fresh off his first win, having a pretty solid game against the overrated Bears defense, and, on the other side of the ball, the Bears offense continue to implode under Mike Martz's pass happy attack. Look for big woe-is-us headlines in the Chicago papers monday morning. It's just about a yearly tradition.

Pick: Panthers win, cover

Pittsburgh at Houston (-3.5)

Houston's high powered offense and improved defense are no match for the stigma that hangs over the team- can't close against the NFL's best teams. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has ground out two straight wins, not always at their prettiest, but wins none the less. The main concern for the Steelers is if they're defense has gotten too old- the team has started to give up chunks of yardage on the ground, not a common trait for the Steelers. The Steelers couldn't even stop the Colts running game last week. The Colts! That running game was built to be a sneaky little thing Peyton Manning called every once in a while, not the focal part of the offense. With the Steeler's looking so overwhelmingly...decent...I have to take the Texans, who, even though they can't close, have looked the better team this year, and play at home. It takes one win to break a stigma, and this should be Houston's week, even if the Steelers will ugly up the game enough to make it difficult.

Pick: Texans win, Steelers cover

Atlanta (-4.5) at Seattle

While Atlanta has hardly looked the part of the Super Bowl contender they were made out to be at the beginning of the season, they're still playing the Seahawks, who appear to be only able to beat other NFC West teams at home. Atlanta, even in their weaker state, while they figure things out, are still leagues ahead of the NFC West.

Pick: Falcons win, cover

NY Giants (-1) at Arizona

Well, the bettors have come in against the Giants, for some reason doubting the Giants and believing in Arizona's home field advantage. But after last week's loss to the Seahawks, can you really put any faith in the Cardinals? Besides, the Giants are starting to return players from their lengthy injury list, and seemed fired up by their win over the Eagles. As long as the NFC West remains the football purgatory that it is, I won't be picking them against most other teams. Especially not a seemingly rising Giants team.

Pick: Giants win, cover

Miami at San Diego (-7)

San Diego managed to get through September with a winning record, which probably elicited a champagne shower in their locker room. I have a feeling Dolphins players would have a similar reaction if coach Tony Sparano were fired. The Dolphins are a team with tons of talent, but they look like they've given up on their coach, and have a sort of self fulfilling prophecy in terms of losing. Now, on the road, they play a team that gets better as the season rolls on, at home. As much as the Chargers like to bungle early season games, it'll be hard against a team determined to lose.

Pick: Chargers win, cover

Denver at Green Bay (-12.5)

It's the Packers. They're the preeminent team in the league right now. They've been playing at a level below their best and still impressively winning. Denver, meanwhile, doesn't have enough to beat the Titans, and could barely beat the Bengals. With the Packers at home, it's hard to see any chance the Broncos have in this game, besides an injury to Aaron Rodgers. Even then, it would be close, and the Packers might still win. There's just too much talent on the roster.

Pick: Packers win, covers

New England (-4) at Oakland

Last week was an emotional victory for the Raiders, as they shook off a bad Week 2 loss to the Bills and manhandled the Jets, taking revenge for last year's blowout loss. As much as I would like to say the Raiders are going to pull another upset, the Patriots are still the Patriots, and they usually respond after losses. Brady is not going to have another game like he did last week unless the Raiders get a ton of pressure on him, which seems unlikely. The Patriots are going to come out focused and put any fears of a slide to bed; still, I like the Raiders to keep it within range because they now have a top 5 running back in Darren McFadden and the Patriots defense is atrocious.

Pick: Patriots win, Raiders cover

NY Jets at Baltimore (-3.5)

Nothing would make me happier than to see the Jets be crushed under the mountain of hype they put on themselves; and it looks a real possibility this season, especially with this game and the Patriots coming up next week. The running game has disappeared, Mark Sanchez still has plenty of room to grow as a quarterback, and the defense hasn't been their usual stellar selves. The Ravens, meanwhile, re-focused after a sloppy Week 2 loss and crushed the Rams in Week 3. The Ravens have one of the best running backs in the league so far in Ray Rice and the semblance of a passing game this year; and the defense is as stingy. So, goodbye Jets, down the rabbit hole where all your brash statements are thrown right back at you.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-10)

This is the eight year anniversary of an exciting game once played between these two (a huge comeback for the Colts, who were down 35-14 at one point in the 3rd quarter, and came back to win 38-35); but the anniversary will not be marked by a repeat performance. The big change is that Curtis Painter starts for the Colts, while Tampa Bay has a team full of young studs on offense and an improving defense. The Colts are still dead in the water without Peyton Manning, and I can't see them making any movements towards life anytime soon, unless Peyton Manning magically wakes up with a new spinal system. The 2011 Colts are the San Antonio Spurs the year they got Tim Duncan- horribly bad at the perfect time. If Andrew Luck ends up with the Colts... well, we'll know that God loves Indianapolis. But only the football team.

Pick: Buccaneers wins, covers

Season: 31-17 Overall, 20-26-2 ATS

I am never comfortable, I am afraid of heights

2011-09-28T19:19:00.000-07:00

Why do people fear heights? Whenever I'm at the top of any tall thing, whether it be a mountain, skyscraper, or even a balcony, it's looking down and seeing that you could fall. On the edge of destruction.

The Bills 3-0 start has me in a state of confused bliss. I wear my Bills shirt every Sunday and Mondays after wins, a classic throwback with the standing buffalo, long sleeve. I've worn it enough this year where it now fits as a shawl; the arms are too loose, and it drapes over my shoulders and fans out over the rest of my body. It fits as well as the Bills fit as NFL contenders. This isn't something I'm used to; the Bills last made the playoffs when I was six, and, in true Buffalo fashion, they lost a heartbreaker in what came to be known as "the Music City Miracle." (Or, total horsecrap,if you ask the city of Buffalo.) That's my first clear Bills memory- the Bills being beaten in the last seconds on a call that was ostensibly wrong. So wrong. And in my naive understanding of the play as it happened, I just couldn't understand how the Bills could lose like this, how things weren't fair.

After twelve more years of grizzled sports experience, I get it now; in fact, for a while, I've been almost resigned to losing, to heartbreak, to things not being fair. Not to say that the pain is any less painful, but it's not unexpected. The 3-0 start by the Bills, to me, is new and terrifying. These things don't happen to the Bills (at least in my lifetime)- 2nd half comebacks, favorable penalty calls, high scoring offense, timely turnovers, beating the Patriots (well, I saw it once, but it seems like a mirage sometimes), and last second drives to win the game. They're playing at a level few could foresee, and they look poised for success. They have an attitude, a presence; they're the castoffs of the league, and they want their revenge. Unfortunately, I have seen the depths that sports can take me to, and the Bills, with their current play, are approaching a pinnacle. They have a long way to fall. And that's the worst part of being a fan for me right now. I am not comfortable with this. I cannot simply just enjoy; I must worry, as much as other fans try to exhort me to live in the moment. Because I've seen this before. I've seen this before.

2008, we start 5-1, the hot new contenders of the league, poised for success. We finish the season at 7-9. Now, this team seems different- better QB, already a 'better' win in the Patriots victory (although the Bills did beat the Chargers in 2008, but the Chargers suck in the beginning of most seasons and finished 8-8. They still made the playoffs though!), a better offensive line, better defensive front. That's what I'm telling myself, at least, that the 2008 team is different than this year's team. But it's still nagging at the back of my mind- the Bills could slip right back into mediocrity.

This is why I find this upcoming game against the Bengals highly important. Last week, I didn't expect the Bills to win, just to play a good game. Now comes the burden of expectation. They should beat the Bengals. In fact, they should roll the Bengals if they're a true NFL contender. It's a classic letdown game. The Bills, high off their win against the Patriots and looking ahead to the Eagles next week, blow it to the Bengals. And envisioning a loss for them this week begets visions of more losses, of a slippery slope right back to a depressing season. It is a bleak horizon, the one I don't want to see, but presses on the back of my mind. We've been here before. They have to start strong in this game (no more comebacks, please), they have to take this one easily, to calm my fears even a little bit.

This season already has given me exuberant highs. The last two weeks, what with their dramatic, my-heart-is-going-to-explode-with-anxiety comebacks, their ability to move the ball in the clutch, and their amazing halftime adjustments, I have bought into this team. I'm along for the ride. I just wish I could sit in the backseat without constantly fearing a ten car pileup. When will there ever be security? Probably only when the Bills have clinched a playoff spot. Until then the abyss of uncertainty will hang over me. Because there's always one more game they can lose, one more 'sure thing' that can go wrong. The classic expectation is that they'll stumble after such a start as this, and while I don't believe it (I think the players are staying remarkably grounded and remember 2008), I have to consider it, out of past experiences. I wish it could be different, that I could just enjoy. Climbing so high, though, I have to look down.

Week 3 NFL Picks- Make or Break Time

2011-09-25T09:38:00.000-07:00

David Nelson's Game Winning TD...With a packed Ralph in the background!

Week 3 in the NFL presents for many teams a critical point in the young season. For every team that's started 0-2, it's a chance to turn around the momentum of their season before they've dug themselves into a hole that's too deep to crawl out of. The 1-1 teams want to get on the right side of the 2-1/1-2 split, obviously, but they also want to show that what happened in their sole loss was an aberration, a blip in what will be a successful season. And for every team that's started 2-0, including my own Buffalo Bills, it's trying to prove that they are, as the media loves to put it, "for real", that they can keep up the pace, that they are as good as advertised. It's still early in the season- everyone still has hope (except for Colts fans), and this week goes a long way in either proving that the hope is warranted or extinguishing belief in many fans.

Anyway, onto the picks. Last week I went 12-4 overall, but a ghastly 4-11-1 ATS. If you were desperate enough to follow my gambling advice, well, don't. Unless you're just picking winners, of course.

San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Well, I wouldn't touch this game if I had any money on the line, because both teams haven't presented a consistent identity. Which 49ers are going to show up? The team that needed a bunch of special teams TDs to beat Seattle or the team that hung around with Dallas and took them to overtime? The Bengals had a dreary win over the Browns and then a close loss to a depleted Broncos team. Still, Andy Dalton and AJ Green have shown the beginnings of some chemistry and are making plays. For the 49ers, there's still Alex Smith and no one at wide receiver, but a pretty solid defense. I can't make sense of this game, couldn't say why I think this, but I'll take Cinci to win and cover.

Pick: Bengals win, cover

New England (-7) at Buffalo

Well, here's the ultimate test for the Buffalo Bills. The media has been quick to anoint the Lions as "The NFL's newest contender!" but, for some reason, look upon the Bills with wary eyes, saying that this is the week where we'll see if the Bills are "for real." What, does that mean the Bills have to lose by a certain amount to be "real"? Or do they have to win? Well, we'll just have to see after the game. The Bills have what looks to be an explosive offense paired with an underachieving defensive secondary- ESPECIALLY YOU, LEODIS MCKELVIN- and face the Patriots, a team with...an explosive offense paired with an underachieving defensive secondary. Neither team has shown an ability to stop the pass and aren't fantastic against the run, either. This game is going to come down to a shootout, where whoever gets the ball last might be the winner. Whichever defense can create turnovers, either by fumbles or interceptions, will take control of the game. The Bills, to me, have a shot in this game, especially if Fred Jackson gets rolling and keeps Tom Brady off the field. I don't have enough blinding optimism to pick them to win, but I still harbor the expectation that it will be close, close enough that the Bills might be considered "for real".

Pick: Patriots win, Bills cover

Houston at New Orleans (-3.5)

The Texans are another 2-0 team trying to prove that they're "for real." The defensive secondary, statistically, is vastly improved over last year's unit, but they've only faced the decaying corpse of the Indianapolis offense and the Chad Henne led Dolphins. Their biggest test comes now as they face the high powered machine that is the New Orleans Saints offense. I have yet to see the Texans defense perform against a good offense and the Saints have carved up better defenses already (the Packers and Bears). The Texans might be able to get their offense going, but they won't be able to make any stops when they need it, as opposed to the Saints defense.

Pick: Saints win, cover

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-8.5)

The Eagles are just plain weird, seemingly altering between mediocrity and brilliance between drives on offense, with or without Michael Vick (he will play this week). The defense, however, is weak against the run, something opponents will now try to exploit. The Giants, on the other hand, look to be a mess in all facets of the game. There's something off. Eli Manning has been completely pedestrian, the receivers are all injured, the running game hasn't picked up, and the defense is also ripped up by injuries (real or feigned). I'll take the schizophrenic over the just plain broken, I guess.

Pick: Eagles win, cover

Miami (-1) at Cleveland

Miami's awful record at home in the past two seasons belies the fact that they've been fantastic on the road during that stretch. The Browns just got by last week against the decaying corpse of the Colts, haven't looked impressive this season, and now go into this game without Peyton Hillis. Miami has a lot to play for- they've started 0-2, and everyone else in the division is 2-0, so, if they want to keep up, they have to win ASAP. I'll take Miami's desperation over Cleveland's boring mediocrity.

Miami wins, covers

Denver at Tennessee (-7)

Tennessee burst out last week and shred the disinterested looking Ravens behind strong performances from Matt Hasslebeck and Kenny Britt, winning in spite of Chris Johnson's lackluster performance. The Broncos managed to pull out a win last week seemingly without half their starting lineup, as a ton of key players sat out the game. Call it a hunch, but I see the Titans as a better overall team- more weapons on both sides of the ball, and healthier. I see them winning this one, but I can't quite count out the Broncos yet.

Pick: Titans win, Broncos cover

Detroit (-3) at Minnesota

Detroit's offense has looked like a juggernaut so far, with Matthew Stafford living up to all the hype as a top tier quarterback. They have a nasty front seven on defense, although they haven't been tested much in two weeks (a game against the Chiefs, sans Jamaal Charles, is a cakewalk). The Vikings blew a 17 point lead last Sunday, and seem to have about one option on offense- Adrian Peterson. The Lions, with their huge defensive line, look built to stop the run, and the offense looks capable of moving the ball on anyone, even with the return of Kevin Williams to the Vikings defensive line. I'm looking at another Lions win here. 3-0 in Detroit! Can't say much else is going right for the city (cue tons of sportswriters covering that angle for the rest of the season if Detroit is a true contender). Looking at the games this week, though, this is one where picking the upset wouldn't be that farfetched. Adrian Peterson can still control games.

Pick: Lions win, Vikings cover

Jacksonville at Carolina (-3.5)

So far, Cam Newton has made all his doubters look like fools, passing for over 400 yards in his first two starts. He has a chance to really prove something by winning a game against the Jaguars and his draft day nemesis Blaine Gabbert, who is making his first start for the Jaguars after the Luke McNown experiment, as was foreseen by pretty much everyone, failed. For everyone who said Gabbert would be a better pro quarterback, well, he'll have to do a lot today to try and prove them right- and he does not have the weapons around him that Newton has, at least receivers wise. I look for Carolina to get their first win, but an inspired performance by Maurice Jones Drew could certainly shift this one the other way.

Pick: Panthers win, cover

Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5)

Last week I asked, "Kansas City can't be that bad, right?" Well, they are, and with the loss of Jamaal Charles, it's gone from bad to worse. This should be no problem for the Chargers, who come off a tough loss to the Patriots that was decided by some costly turnovers. They'll be able to take their anger out on the Chiefs.

Pick: Chargers win, cover

NY Jets (-3) at Oakland

Watching the Raiders last week, I actually came away pretty impressed- they have a power running game and a franchise running back to make it work, and they can pass the ball when they need to. They're defensive front is improving, and the corners are good (but not against quick, short routes). Is that enough to beat the Jets? Mark Sanchez has been decent-to-awful so far, and the defense has picked up the slack for the team. Their running game has been awful, and that's bad news for a team built around the running game. I definitely think the Raiders can stay in this game, but I'm having trouble putting my faith behind them fully- it seems as if the Jets are masters at pulling wins from the jaws of defeat, creating good luck for themselves.

Pick: Jets win, Raiders cover

Baltimore(-5.5) at St. Louis

Well, I think it's fair to say that the Ravens weren't as up for their game against the Titans as they were for their game against the Steelers. They looked as if they were sleepwalking, still dazed at the prospect of beating their hated rivals. Hopefully the shellacking they received was enough to wake them up. St. Louis, on the other hand, is playing out a string of very difficult games, and they haven't looked good doing it- they can't score in the red zone. The funny thing is, this team could start with 5 or 6 losses and still contend for the NFC West crown. St. Louis, though, is definitely not the league-wide contender many thought they'd be.

Pick: Ravens win, cover

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

Both teams have played sloppy, inconsistent football, and both teams find themselves at 1-1. The Buccaneers have played 2 good quarters of football so far, and might have been awakened by last week's second half comeback. The Falcons looked bad in week 1 and then won a topsy turvy affair with the Eagles. That win, though, was at home, in the dome, where Matt Ryan flourishes. On the road, he goes into his shell. Without brilliant play from Ryan, I can't see the Falcons winning this one. The Buccaneers have weapons on offense and look as if they've hit their stride- a come from behind win can do wonders for a team.

Pick: Buccaneers win, cover

Arizona (-3.5) at Seattle

Literally the only thing the Seahawks have going for them is their very loud home stadium. The rest of the team is a dreck, with two touchdowns through two games and a ton of points allowed. Arizona has played decently enough, beating Carolina and keeping it very close with Washington. Decent beats out horrible, though, and that phrase ought to be the slogan of the NFC West.

Pick: Arizona wins, covers

Green Bay (-4.5) at Chicago

Green Bay hasn't even hit their stride yet and they're sitting at 2-0; the Bears have played one great game and then got shredded by the Saints. The Packers were able to beat the Saints while playing an off game defensively. The Bears simply don't have the weapons on offense to keep up with the Packers, even if their defense stays strong and limits the Packers attack. So far, Aaron Rodgers has looked too good, too precise, to be knocked off his game. The Bears have shunned their best offensive option in Matt Forte and have tried to put the game on Jay Cutler's shoulders, but he doesn't have an offensive line, which creates some problems. It's probably why he's pouting all the time.

Pick: Packers win, cover

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis

As with every Colts appearance on prime time television, well, this game would've been awesome if Peyton Manning was healthy. He's not, and his team is a mess. The Steelers get the luxury of playing this team before they've started to sort everything out, and a week after they got to rip up the Seahawks. It's a luxury cruise for the Steelers, who will coast back to 2-1 after a week one embarrassment.

Pick: Steelers win, cover

Washington at Dallas (-4)

Ah, Monday Night Football is always willing to either put a terrible game on TV between two teams with high expectations going into the season or put the Cowboys, Jets, Patriots or Eagles on. The Cowboys come in after Tony Romo's gutty performance last week (did anyone ever think they would say that about Tony Romo?) led the Cowboys to a win over the 49ers. The Redskins eked out a close win over the Cardinals last week and have improbably improved to 2-0. The Cowboys are without Miles Austin, and will have to rely on a reality show winner to pick up some of the slack. Still, I find Dallas' defense scarier than Washington's, and I don't trust the Redskins offensively. With Rex Grossman slinging the ball, you can only really just close your eyes and pray it doesn't fall into a defender's grasp.

Pick: Cowboys win, cover

Season: 21-11 Overall, 12-19-1 ATS

Week 2 NFL Picks. Indulging Delusions.

2011-09-18T07:37:00.000-07:00

After an oftentimes thrilling and record setting first week of the season, we finally get to see these teams in action again. This is critical because in seeing a team play again, we get to expand our frame of reference- right now, all we know is the result of week 1, which doesn't give us much because we don't know if the team that won is really good or if the team that lost is really bad. For instance, the Bills unexpectedly demolished the Chiefs, 41-7, last week, but its still tough to get a read on the Bills- did they beat a talented team (meaning that the Bills are really good)? Or did they beat an awful team (meaning that the Bills are just decent?) This is the question that faces a lot of teams, and now, thankfully, we get to see them play again and start to figure out the direction this season is headed. Until then, the picture is still muddy. Anyway, onto the week 2 picks.

Last week I went 9-7 overall and 8-8 against the spread. A decent week. Totally missed on the Ravens and...the Buffalo Bills. I did not properly Billieve, I suppose.

Chicago at New Orleans (-6.5)

Nothing like a fluky win (5 recovered fumbles) last week to give delusional Bears fans hope for a Super Bowl this year. The Bears have what might be the best luck in the NFL pretty much every week, and I continue to doubt them and they continue to back themselves into wins. It's like the opposite of being a Bills fan. Somehow everything just works out. Still, the defense was good enough to shut down the Falcons offense (when they weren't fumbling) and Jay Cutler had one of his good statistical days (although he got plenty of yards off two short throws that the receiver took for long gains). The Bears now travel to New Orleans to play a team that just came off a heartbreaking loss to the Packers. The Saints were able to move the ball well against Green Bay and, at the end, just couldn't punch it in with no time remaining. There's no shame, though, in playing close with the Packers, who look to be among the year's strongest teams. The Saints also have the advantage of more rest- they played last Thursday and should be more fresh than the Bears. The Bears defense might be fired up, rallying around Brian Urlacher, whose mother recently passed, but I don't see it being enough to shut down the Saints. The Bears offense hasn't shown, to me, that it can keep up with an offense like the Saints', so if it comes down to scoring points, the Saints should be in control for his one. Hopefully this is one week where every ball doesn't bounce Chicago's way.
Pick: Saints win, cover

Kansas City at Detroit (-8)

Well this is odd. When was the last time Detroit was an 8 point favorite in any game? Detroit has been the one team as bad as the Bills since 1999, and they now enter the season as a dangerous team, looking to finally break through. They handled the Buccaneers while playing their "C" game- they won below their best, which usually portends future success, especially if they can start playing at their peak. The Chiefs, meanwhile, played some seriously sloppy football last week and ended up getting crushed by the Bills. The Lions should be riled up to play at home and also boast a more dangerous offense and defensive front than the Bills, which is a good sign for them. Even if the Chiefs play remarkably better this game, I don't think they can match the offensive and defensive pressure the Lions will put on them. Still, the Chiefs can't be THAT bad, right? They should be able to at least stay in this one.

Pick: Lions win, Chiefs cover

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9)

Jacksonville tried to mask their awful starting quarterback last week by handing the Titans a steady dose of Maurice Jones-Drew, and they ended up winning a close one. The Jets, however, are not the Titans- they have a much better defense. The Jaguars will have trouble running on this defense and will have to rely on Luke McNown to make plays... and there aren't many more quarterbacks in the league that I'd rather NOT rely on to make plays. No matter how sloppy the Jets looked last week, Jacksonville is nowhere near as talented as the Cowboys, so the Jets should take this one pretty easily.

Pick: Jets win, cover

Oakland at Buffalo (-4)

Last week I was cautiously optimistic that the Bills would be able to contend with the Chiefs, so, needless to say, last Sunday's 41-7 beatdown was surreal. I was stationed at a bar in Montreal, found some other Bills fans (BILLS NATION!) and watched the most satisfying Bills opening day since 2003, when they crushed the Patriots 31-0. Unfortunately, we've been down this road before- Bills start well, then fizzle out, which means all my optimism (and many others) is tempered- I can't commit yet. After all that 2003 team ended up being terrible and losing to the Patriots in week 16, by a final score of...31-0. The Raiders come into Buffalo this week coming off a punishing win over the Broncos. The Raiders play a type of smashmouth football on both sides of the ball and love to run the football whenever possible, making this a true test of the Bills run defense. Last week, they were able to limit the Chiefs in part because they had a sizable lead early. The Raiders will probably stick to the run all game, so the fans get to see if all the work done to the defense has made actual improvement. Last week I went with my head over my heart and picked against the Bills. This week, I'm not making the same mistake. I think the Raiders will be tired off a short week and a cross country flight for a day game, and the Bills will be able to move the ball on offense if they can't stop the Raiders run game on defense. I'm trying not to get too excited about this team, and a win these week would make it awful hard to keep tempering those expectations.

Pick: Bills win, cover

Arizona at Washington (-3.5)

Arizona won last week, but that fact was overshadowed by the fact that they gave up 422 yards of passing to a rookie QB last week (I think his name was...Cam Newton? I don't know, he doesn't get that much media attention...). Now they're going cross country and playing a team with an established, if erratic, starting QB in Rex Grossman? Don't see how the Cardinals are going to stay in this game, if they barely beat a team with a worse defense than the Redskins last week. Rex Grossman will be gunslinging his way to a win, and the fans in Washington will become just a little more insufferable.

Pick: Redskins win, cover

Baltimore (-6) at Tennessee

I think Baltimore made a pretty big statement last week in crushing the Steelers, showing that they've made the step many predicted them to make. Ray Rice looked amazing against what is supposed to be a tough Steelers run D, and he should be able to get through the Titan's defense fairly easily. The Titans don't have much on offense besides Chris Johnson, and it showed last week, as they struggled to 14 points while severely underutilizing Johnson. They plan to give him the ball more this week, but the Ravens are no slouches against the run. Barring a huge game from Johnson (he is capable of winning games by himself sometimes), I can't see anyway the Titans stay in this one.

Pick: Ravens win, cover

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-14)

As I mentioned last week, Tavaris Jackson is an awful NFL quarterback, and the Seahawks will be pretty awful as long as he's under center. Pittsburgh got smoked last week and will be looking to take revenge on the hapless Seahawks this week. It'll be a bloodbath. Pittsburgh might not be Super Bowl contenders this year, but they'll still be able to beat up on terrible teams, and the Seahawks are brutally bad.

Pick: Steelers win, cover

Green Bay (-10) at Carolina

Lost in all the Cam Newton hype last week was the fact that his team still lost to the Cardinals last week. When your quarterback has the best day for a starting debut EVER, yardage wise at least, and you lose, you usually don't have a very good team. This week Cam will be seeing some tricky defenses and, you know, actual coverage (Steve Smith was WIDE open for a lot of last Sunday), which should make Cam stumble a bit. The Packers also have an offense exponentially better than the Cardinals, and I look for them to absolutely destroy the Panthers D here. Green Bay is still in Super Bowl form, and the Panthers are no worthy opponent.

Pick: Packers win, cover

Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-2)

A little confused about this line, seeing as the Vikings are starting the corpse of Donovan McNabb at quarterback (he threw for 39 yards last week. That's over 4 quarters.) and have exactly one weapon on offense- Adrian Peterson. The Buccaneers have a more dynamic offense and some talent on the defensive side of the ball to at least match the Vikings. Barring one of those games where Adrian Peterson has like 300 yards and 3 TDs, I don't see the Vikings pulling this one out, and I see the Bucs getting back on track with a win after a sloppy performance last week.

Pick: Bucs win, cover

Cleveland (-2) at Indianapolis

That's right folks, it's your 2011-12 Indianapolis Colts! Watch as a team crumbles when the pedestal of their team gets a debilitating neck injury! Still, even with that being said, the Browns looked terrible last week in losing to the Bengals last week, causing many people to jump off the "Browns to the playoffs!" bandwagon. I hope to not have to see a second of this game because it just looks awful. I think the Colts can't get any worse than they were last week and maybe have put together a game plan for how to succeed with Kerry Collins. Cleveland, well, I still don't see them having much of an offense with their no name receiving crew, and their defense isn't scaring anyone. The Colts, I guess, will take this one. If they don't...yikes, it'll be a long season in Indy.

Pick: Colts win, cover

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

Wait, the 49ers are three point underdogs? WHY? Last week they beat the lowly Seahawks on the strength of two special teams touchdowns by Ted Ginn, not something you can count on week to week. Otherwise, they are still starting Alex Smith at QB, which is a recipe for failure. The Cowboys and Tony Romo especially may have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory, but they still have enough talent to put away a cruddy team like the 49ers. Unfortunately for the 49ers, you can't play the Seahawks every week.

Pick: Cowboys win, cover

Houston (-3) at Miami

Tough to get a read on this one, because last week Houston beat up on a disheveled Colts team,while the Dolphins got smoked by the Patriots, who are among the league's elite. Chad Henne surprisingly threw for 400+ yards last week, but didn't do so well in the red zone, which ended up screwing the Dolphins. The Texans were able to move the ball well without star running back Arian Foster, and now they get him back in time to face a defense that has the potential to be dominating (even though they really did not show it last week). So, did the Texans just beat up on a bad team, or are they that good? Did the Dolphins just lose to an amazing team, or are they that bad? I can't get a read on it, so I revert back to my preseason expectations, which say that Chad Henne is not that good, the Dolphins won't be that good, and the Texans will make the playoffs. At home, though, I can see the Dolphins putting up a fight.

Pick: Texans win, Dolphins cover

San Diego at New England (-7)

San Diego was pretty underwhelming to start the season, and now they face one of the most impressive teams from week 1, the Patriots. The Patriots one problem, though, was that their defense looked porous against the pass, against a quarterback as decent as Chad Henne. The Chargers have an elite quarterback in Philip Rivers who leads an elite offensive attack that I don't think the Patriots defense will handle too well. Luckily for the Patriots, their offense is more than good enough to make up for any shortcomings on the defensive side, which is why I still see the Patriots winning this one, but the Chargers being able to stay in it.

Pick: Patriots win, Chargers cover

Cincinnati at Denver (-3.5)

Even after their win last week, I can't get behind the Bengals (and neither can Vegas). I don't believe Cedric Benson can run that way against most teams, and the two headed quarterback of Andy Dalton and Bruce Gradkowski is overwhelmingly decent. Denver isn't much better, but Kyle Orton isn't awful and the defense looks improved from last year. Denver has some angry home fans (who want Tim Tebow at QB... now that's delusional), and I think the Broncos will come out hard in this game to show them something. Plus, it's the Bengals. Even a blind squirrel gets a nut every once in a while, and last week's win looks to be the Bengals'.

Pick: Denver wins, covers

Philadelphia (-2.5) at Atlanta

Michael Vick returns to Atlanta, where people inexplicably still love them, even though he torpedoed their team after his arrest. The rest of the Eagles, especially LeSean McCoy, looked good in dispatching the Rams last week. The Falcons played an incredibly sloppy game against the Bears, uncharacteristic of their fundamental style of football. The Falcons should bounce back this week and play their solid game, but I can't see them beating the explosiveness the Eagles have on both sides of the ball. The Falcons bet big on this being "the year" for them (trading next year's first round pick), but so far, they have not shown the look of a Super Bowl team, and I think an 0-2 hole to start the season will create some urgency down in Atlanta, even if they keep this close. Vick and the Eagles, however, should be getting better each week, gelling together, towards Super Bowl contention.

Pick: Eagles win, cover (but it's close)

St. Louis at NY Giants (-6.5)

St. Louis was doing well against the Eagles last week until the injury bug hit them, hard. The Giants are in a similar situation, as defensive starters seem to drop left and right. The Giants still have most of their offense intact, while the Rams are missing Steven Jackson, he of the perennial, it seems, hamstring pull. Justin Tuck might be coming back to help the Giants D. The Rams still haven't shown me they can win big games against quality opponents, and they don't really have a good receiving core, either. The Giants need this one to stay afloat in the NFC East, and should play with energy, while the Rams, I think, still have a ways to go before their anything more than an NFC West contender. They can stay in the game, but win it? Not with these injuries, anyway.

Pick: Giants win, Rams cover

Season: 9-7 (8-8 ATS)

Roger Federer's Endgame

2011-09-12T16:43:00.000-07:00

Let me be among the many to join in the chorus about the Djokovich-Federer US Open semi-final match on Saturday, one that will be remembered for years to come, and probably remembered more than the final. Right now, Djokovich is about to put a cap on what may be the greatest tennis season of all time, leading defending champion Rafael Nadal two sets to none and on the verge of winning the third set (well, he's in a tiebreak now, but he is in control of the match, to be sure) and the US Open, barring a miraculous comeback by Rafael Nadal. This will be Djokovich's third Grand Slam victory of the year, with his only failing coming at the French Open. Yet I sense that when we look back on his career and 2011, in tennis, the first match mentioned will be his semi-final win over Federer. In this epic five set match, Djokovich effectively showed why Federer will no longer be a champion in this sport, why he and Nadal have become the kings of this sport. Djokovich bent reason with his play; and with that, destroyed Federer.

The key moment, as nearly everyone has brought up, was when Djokovich was facing a double match point in the fifth set. He had lost the first two sets; Federer looked particularly strong in the first two, playing the vintage Federer game- impeccable angles, planned shots, clean tennis, finesse. And it worked. In the third and fourth sets, though, Federer's precision started to fade, and he was physically outmatched by the pace, energy and sheer power that Djokovich was putting behind his ground strokes. Djokovich in particular started to attack Federer's backhand, which abandoned him after the first two sets. Djokovich won the third set and then proceeded to go up 5-2 in the fourth, looked to be clearly in control of the set and the match. Federer was down 40-0 in the game, and then, curiously, awoke, almost as if he planned to show Djokovich that he was not done yet, that he would bring everything for the fifth set. He brought the game to deuce behind some thundering forehands. He lost the game, and the set, but still, he had sent a message. The fifth set was to be a dogfight.

Federer took his renewed energy into the fifth set and built up his lead, trading games with Djokovich and then defiantly breaking Djokovich's serve. He was now in command, serving for the match, and he built up a 40-15 lead. Now was the double match point that will go down in history for Djokovich's career, the one in which Federer met his endgame. Djokovich was clearly angry at the crowd's jubilation that Federer was about to win; he glared, and set up to return Federer's serve, exuding bravado. This was his last stand, staring down the barrel of what seemed to be a foregone conclusion.

Federer served, and Djokovich whipped back a cross court shot that defied rational thinking or tennis strategy; here was a man playing in one of the biggest matches in his career trying the riskiest shot he could.

The crowd erupted, thinking, knowing, that that shot could've never gone in, and Federer just watches it, doesn't make a move for it, as it slides by, just hitting inside the line and then disappearing to the side. Djokovich turns toward the crowd and demands their support, for he has truly earned it. He has subjected time and space to his indomitable will.

This is when Federer has lost his match, and probably lost the chance at more majors. Federer's game, his beautiful game, is predicated on planning, on careful placement, of knowing what the other player will do and using it against him, setting his opponent up such that Federer can control the game, control where the other player will be, and he can place his shot in a place where his opponent will never reach it. He uses the other player, and sets him up to fail. But this approach is based on reason, on careful planning, on a knowledge of things as they are; and Djokovich's shot was an impossibility. Not with that pace, not with that placement, not with that speed, not with that angle. It was luck, maybe, but it was also a reflection of Djokovich- with his power and shot making ability, he is sometimes above what we, and Federer, consider to be possible.

Federer, suitably shaken, dazed, with the crowd now pulling for Djokovich, faltered, and lost the game, and then the rest of the set. There was nothing he could do. After the match, he could hardly express what had happened.

"I believe in the hard-work's-going-to-pay-off kind of thing, because early on, maybe I didn't always work at my hardest. So for me, this is very hard to understand how can you play a shot like that on match point.".... But like I said, sometimes in sports it just goes the other way. Maybe you've already won so much that it evens it out a bit sometimes. I don't know."

But this much was clear- this was so far outside the scope of Federer's game, of pure reason. It could only take him so far. You can't plan for the miraculous. You can't beat the impossible.

NFL Week One Picks/Season Preview

2011-09-08T15:05:00.000-07:00

Before I start this hybrid of Week One Picks and a little bit about each team's prospects this season, I just want you to do one thing. Stop. Imagine for a second that the NFL lockout was never solved, that right now we'd be entering fall without NFL football, without the bright horizon of a new season, the endless possibilities that are inherent in each one.

OK. You can stop weeping now. There it is, right in front of us, another start to the best season in all of pro sports. And after hearing for months about the lockout and the CBA, the truncated offseason was a blast of fresh air in the summer heat, a hyper speed version of the NFL offseason we are used to. And it was glorious. The issue that came with less time, though, was less preparation, and now we enter an NFL season where teams with 'continuity' from last season are presumed to have the edge. The quality of play itself could get appreciably sloppier as well, in addition to affecting rookies entering the league. But enough of that pessimism. It's the NFL. It will be awesome.

So, here are my picks for the first week, which is the hardest week to prognosticate because of the lack of data; we haven't seen these teams in action since at least February (don't even try to tell me that pre-season counts for anything but final roster cuts) and have no idea how exactly the teams will mesh together, how the new additions will play, how the new coaching will affect these teams. It's a guessing game. Along with each pick will be some thoughts on how each team looks heading into the season and my prediction for how they'll fare.

There is one thing I've noticed, though, about pre-season predictions. You can frame any team you choose positively or negatively- there is hope for each team, along with a reason to worry about each team. It depends on how you want to look at it, or which side you think is more realistic. That's why I'm having so much trouble with some sets of predictions, most notably Bill Barnwell's preview over at Grantland. He has 4 sections- pretenders, teams that will decline, teams that will improve, and title contenders. While a lot of it is smart, statistical analysis- Pythagorean Win Totals, turnover ratios, etc.- there is a lot of it that is pure speculation and assumptions. For instance, the Bills are listed as a "pretender", while the Panthers are listed as a team that should "improve"(of course, the improvement is relative for the Panthers). The way these arguments are constructed is such-

The Bills: Man, this team is awful and will continue to be awful. They have a terrible organization, coaching staff, and set of players. Buffalo's an awful place to live.

The Panthers: Man, this team was awful, but here's a bunch of reasons why they could be plenty better!

The problem is, there's no mention, really of the flipside for either team- and I could give plenty of reasons why the Bills could be a lot better this season or why the Panthers will still be awful. Barnwell doesn't want to acknowledge these sides, though; he makes his projection and only gives that side besides the "Best Case- Worst Case" section, which gives the Bills a chance at- oh boy!- 9-7! I get it, this is supposed to be a strong argument on behalf or against each team, but an antithesis is a part of any good argument- you can even try and argue against the antithesis within the piece. As I said, each projection is all about framing, how you want to see it. Still, what's outside the frame shouldn't be completely thrown out.

So, with that in mind, here I go. I'll try and give some reasons for optimism for each team (if I, personally, think they'll be terrible) and some warnings for teams that I expect to do very well. In the interest of eliminating redundancy, health is a key issue for each team, and I'll only mention it if it is a special case.

New Orleans at Green Bay (-4)

The season opener pits the last two Super Bowl Champions against one another, and both teams have a strong outlook for the season. The Packers won the Super Bowl last year without some key players: RB Ryan Grant, TE Jermichael Finley, DE Justin Harrell, OL Mark Tauscher, and they lost CB Charles Woodson in the Super Bowl itself. Now the Packers get all of that back and look to build on last season's run. QB Aaron Rodgers is probably the frontrunner for NFL MVP at this point, and LB Clay Matthews and Woodson lead a strong, opportunistic defense. Seriously, this organization has built a team that should contend for years. As a Packers friend of mine said, the team shunned huge signings (or, couldn't get them because of the small market) and big trades (as opposed to the Bears, Vikings, Redskins, and perhaps the Eagles this year...) and chose to smartly draft and homegrow talent into the contender it is now. Honestly, the only thing I could see derailing this team is an injury to Aaron Rodgers (the team could survive anyone else) or a massive mental lapse, i.e. 'The Super Bowl Hangover." Something tells me, though, that this team is hungry to keep contending.

Their opponent in this game are the Saints, who were good enough last year to overcome any 'Hangover' and at least make the playoffs, where they were upset by the Seahawks, probably the worst team to make the playoffs. This offseason, they went out and aggressively drafted RB Mark Ingram and DT Cameron Jordan, signed C Olin Kreutz and DT Shaun Rogers, without losing too much (in fact, losing RB Reggie Bush might be a plus). Obviously, the Saints want to be back in the Super Bowl after a 'down' year. I can see them winning the division and making a deep playoff run- although you have to worry a little bit about the defense, even under Greg Williams' coaching.

This game, then, pits two of the (predicted) top NFC contenders together for the season opener. The Packers will get their rings, and then immediately return to 0-0, with a target squarely on their backs. Both offenses are dangerous, more through the air than on the ground, and I think will effectively cancel each other out. If it comes down to defense, I like the Packers defense a little more- they are a top to bottom better defense. The Saints are susceptible to the pass and not fantastic against the run, and relies too heavily on turnovers, which, against a QB like Aaron Rodgers, are hard to come by. The Packers will take this game in a close one, winning their own coronation ceremony.
Pick: Packers win, Saints cover

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2)

This is the other prominent game of the week (sorry, NY Jets vs. Dallas...I don't care, even if the media tries to shove this down the collective throat of America), a divisional matchup that has gotten downright nasty in the past couple of years. However, for the casual football fan, this one is not much fun to watch- these teams focus on kicking the crap out of one another and getting points comes in somewhere down the line. Anyway, the Steelers and Ravens are both going to be good this year, as has been the case for the past two or three years. The Steelers have a bad habit of doing poorly the year after they make the Super Bowl (whether they win or not), but I can't see them doing that this year. They get a full 16 games out of QB Ben Roethlisberger this year (as opposed to 12 last year), barring injury, and the offense has actually become pretty dynamic with the emergence of RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Mike Wallace to compliment the possession receiver play of WR Hines Ward. The defense is the same old stingy defense, albeit a little bit older. They're nearly immovable on the ground and pretty good against the pass. Of course, there's always LB James Harrison to provide illegal hits on any player who puts their head down, just for good measure. It's not that bold to say it, but I still see this team at the top of the division (despite the Super Bowl curse and their increasing age- two worries), despite all the hype for the Ravens.

The Ravens, too, have a stingy defense, with LB Ray Lewis somehow still out there making plays, DT Haloti Ngata wreaking havoc, and a decent if sometimes burnable stable of corners. Unlike the Steelers, though, I still don't see them having a good offense. RB Ray Rice is a playmaker on the ground, but I'm not sold yet on QB Joe Flacco or his crop of receivers, Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans (who has been decent to awful for the Bills in the past three years). When the game comes down to the wire, do you really want Joe Flacco, the guy who looks like Bert from Seasame Street and doesn't do so well without a big cushy pocket, leading the charge? I don't think so, and that's why I think the Ravens will still be behind the Steelers in this division (while making the playoffs)- they don't have a better Quarterback, they don't have a better offense, and the defenses are fairly equal. If the Ravens have don't get early leads, or fall behind early, they'll have a tough season just getting to the playoffs, unless Flacco takes some major steps.

That just about spells out my pick for this game. It'll be close, but the Steelers have a better ability to score points, and they'll cover and win this game.
Pick: Steelers cover, win

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

Last year's surprise team (10 Wins!?)- Tampa Bay- takes on the team many are jumping on to get to the playoffs this year-Detroit. The Buccaneers had a quiet offseason, building through the draft on a young team that has already tasted success. The problem, however, is that the Buccaneers played an amazingly easy schedule last year, and feasted on weak teams (in the aforementioned Bill Barnwell article, he really hammers this point in). Since they finished third in the division, though, behind two other strong teams, they at least get the benefit of playing two games vs. third place teams in other NFC Divisions. They also get to play the AFC South and the NFC North this year, which isn't too bad. This is still a talented team, with plenty of room to grow, but I see a slight recession, to around eight wins- the schedule is a little tougher. Though,if they actually keep getting better than last year, maybe they'll hit ten wins again, but I can't see them in the playoffs without the Saints or Falcons tripping up or the wild card falling into place for them.

Detroit, on the other hand, hasn't gone above six wins ever since they went winless, but they've been steadily improving every season. The offense, if it can stay healthy- and that is a BIG if- could be explosive. QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best and WR Calvin Johnson, all playmakers in their own right, all have injury problems. The defense, however, could be one of the nastiest in the league, with the young defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley anchoring the line. The defensive backs, though, could use some serious work. Last year, this team was a BS ref's call away from seven wins, and if Stafford can stay healthy, it's not hard to see this team getting at least eight wins this year, and at least contending for a playoff spot this year as a wild card. But the bottom could fall out really quickly if they can't stay healthy.

In this opening game, the Lions ARE healthy, so I like them to take this and send a message to the team that they can beat quality opponents. Their defense should be able to pressure the Bucs QB, Josh Freeman, into some mistakes (he had a ridiculously low TD-INT ratio last year), and come away with a win.
Pick: Lions cover, win

Atlanta (-3) at Chicago

Oh, the Bears. This was one of the worst teams I think I've ever seen go to an NFC Championship game. They bumbled through the season against a ridiculously easy schedule and sheer luck (weird bounces, referee's calls, the other team not having their best players). Even when they played a good team, it always seemed as if the other team had an issue that week that made them appreciably worse. Fine, they capitalized on their opportunities. But God, this is not a good team, not a division champion, not even a playoff team. QB Jay Cutler is a far cry from 'elite', RB Matt Forte is a decent back who thinks he is a superstar, and they have no bona fide number one wide receiver (Roy Williams will masquerade in that role this year. Comical.) The defense has a solid pass rush with DE Julius Peppers, but the linebackers aren't getting any younger, and the defensive secondary isn't that impressive. I swear, if this team is still this bad and makes the playoffs again, my head will explode with anger. To return to the playoffs in a non- sheer luck way, they're going to have to take some major steps, like Cutler making better decisions and an offense that can consistently put up points and protect the quarterback. I don't see it, but I'm sure plenty of Bears fans have talked themselves into it.

As for the Falcons, well, they've built a team that should be near the top of the NFC for the next couple of years. Matt Ryan is already a franchise QB, Roddy White is a top WR, and they can pound the ball on the ground. They also gambled and traded some future draft picks to pick up WR Julio Jones to further bolster the passing attack- it's clear they want Matt Ryan to start throwing more. The defense isn't quite up to snuff, but they added DE Ray Edwards to up the pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I do worry about the defensive secondary and linebackers- they play good but not great defense, and against elite offenses, they're going to have some trouble. That's why I see them slightly slipping from last season and getting an NFC Wild Card, losing the division to the Saints. An injury to Matt Ryan (who has stayed exceedingly healthy, it seems), though, would definitely plummet this team out of the playoffs.

Once again, the preview colors the pick. The Bears are shells of NFC contenders, and I don't even see them in the playoffs this year. Atlanta will be near the top of the NFC, and possibly in the Super Bowl. Quality wins out here, and I see the Falcons winning and covering easily. This line is way too low.
Pick: Falcons win, cover

Buffalo at Kansas City (-6)

Hoo boy. My beloved Bills. Before I get into my mini-treatise about the Bills, I'll get into the Chiefs. The Chiefs were another surprise team last year, riding a strong running game and defense to an AFC West title while the Chargers imploded. One factor for their sudden rise was their easy schedule: they got to to play the NFC West and the AFC South, as well as 6 games against the rest of their division which wasn't too hot last year (and they still lost to the Raiders twice and the Broncos once). They also built well through the draft and becoming, basically, the Junior Patriots by taking almost any player they could from the Patriots roster and their roster cuts. RB Jamaal Charles is truly a game breaker on the ground, and should get more carries this year as Thomas Jones starts to age. WR Dwayne Bowe has the ability to take over games. QB Matt Cassel has shown flashes of brilliance, but still isn't much more than a glorified game manager. If the game is on his shoulders (i.e the Chiefs go down early and can't run the ball as much), he hasn't shown the ability to grasp that moment. The defense got even bigger by adding DT Kevin Gregg. The linebackers are pretty good, nothing special, and there's plenty of talent in the defensive secondary. Not sure I can see this team making the playoffs, though, unless Cassel makes a big step forward. For one, the AFC has two divisions with two great teams- the North (Steelers and Ravens) and the East (Patriots and Jets), so the wild card will be tough to get. Secondly, the Chargers should be a lot better than last year (and, statistically, they were very good, but everything somehow went wrong), and the Chiefs don't have enough on offense to match the Chargers. Thirdly, the problem with winning your division is that you play other division winners next year, strengthening the schedule, and they play the NFC North and AFC East this year. It's not going to be as easy, and the Chiefs will struggle. They'll still a good team, but they can't live up to the run they had last year.

This could probably be it's own column in its own right. The Bills outlook for this season is divided into two camps: "This team has been awful since 2005 and there is no hope. Cry, Buffalo, for you have been cast into football hell" (ok, so the last part was only slightly exaggerated), or, the more optimistic view- "This team has been pretty bad since 2005, but they have started to improve the team and have some potential in this year and years upcoming." And you know what? I think these two sides are split among one line- people who actually have watched the Bills games from 2010 fall on the more optimistic side, while those who don't (cough cough most ESPN personalities cough cough) look at last year's record, what we did in free agency, and the overall roster, and say, this team is nothing.

But that's sort of the point (and here comes the optimism). The Bills don't have the resources to compete with other teams financially and lack a big market to draw good players. And instead of just standing pat and taking that fact, they're trying all sorts of ways to build up talent to become a competitive team. The organization has a plan in place to build an unconventional winner- big in the trenches, speed on the outside. Sure, the strategy isn't unconventional itself, it's the implementation. GM Buddy Nix and coach Chan Gailey have basically turned over the whole roster since the Dick Jauron era ended, keeping only the parts they could utilize in their new system. They've drafted for this system, bringing in CJ Spiller (who has the pure ability to be a Jamaal Charles type back) and Stevie Johnson, as well as finding a group of young, talented receivers, and tailoring the pass attack around them, highlighting their strengths. The offense is predicated on the players, not the scheme. The scheme is tailored around the players. When you're dealing with not being able to attract players, this is the way to maximize potential. On defense, the team has completely built up their D-Line, surrounding stud NT Kyle Williams (seriously, he was, by some metrics, the defensive player of the year last year) with new DE/DT Marcell Dareus, who looks scary as a rookie. This pick, along with the signing of Nick Barnett and Kirk Morrison, was a direct response to last year's failings against the run. The team took a chance of claiming LB Shawne Merriman off waivers, and, if he can stay healthy, he looks to be back in his game changing form. The secondary is still a question mark, but the Bills at least tried to address in the draft by grabbing CB Aaron Williams and S Da'Norris Searcy. This roster isn't full of big names or special players. This roster an optimized, bottom of the barrel team. They showed flashes last year- especially in weeks 7-12 last year, where they took the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers to overtime, scored 35 unanswered points against the Bengals, and got their first two wins. The offense, when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is on his game, can be explosive. The defense is hopefully improved from last year's sieve. There is hope. The Bills are not in the pits of NFL Hell. Their roster is a bunch of no-names trying to prove that they are something, that the city is something, that they are not merely cast offs. This team is playing for respect, and athletes who feel slighted are dangerous athletes. I see a 6-9 win season, and, hey, maybe some sneaky playoff contention if they REALLY improve and start knocking off quality teams.

Would I be surprised if the Bills bottomed out and won 2 games this season? Well, that sort of failure has become commonplace for the Bills, and, sure, I could see them imploding behind a weak offensive line and a still developing defense. I would be disheartened, but not surprised. You have to expect the worst watching the Bills. But damn it, there was a flicker last year, a smattering, of hope, of potential. I feel like one of those trick candles sometimes. The Bills keep trying to blow out the belief I have in them, but, annoyingly, I'm still there, burning, dripping wax onto the cake.

Well, finally, onto the pick. Literally, my brain is screaming at me here NOT to take the Bills, while my irrational heart keeps popping in and saying, hey, they could do it! Unfortunately, I'm going to have to see it before I believe it- that the Bills can stop such a strong running team and if their offense can get into the groove they sometimes had last year. Sigh. Chiefs win, Bills cover (remember, these teams went to OT last year).
Pick: Chiefs win, Bills cover

Indianapolis at Houston (-9)

Any talk about Indianapolis at this point revolves solely around QB Peyton Manning and his mysterious neck injury. The Colts and Manning himself are being exceedingly hush hush about the injury, which is never a good sign. The interesting thing that fans get to see here, though, is truly how valuable Manning is to this team. The argument that most MVP debates come down to, at least in my view, is how good would the team be without this player? Here, we have a real life example, no theoretical posturing needed. The last time we saw this was in 2009, when Tom Brady of the Patriots was injured, putting Matt Cassel into the starting role- and the Patriots still won 11 games. The Colts, however, don't seem built as well as the Patriots were. The defense, for one, besides DE Dwight Freeney, has always been an afterthought. The offense has never really developed a solid running game, and the receivers, besides Reggie Wayne, seem to be good because of Peyton Manning, and not because of insane ability. Basically, then, it DOES come down to Peyton. If he misses a couple of weeks, the Colts should be able to right the ship and challenge Houston for a division crown. If he's gone for a majority or...ALL... of the season, Kerry Collins is not going to get them to the playoffs, barring some sort of miraculous reinvention by him or by the whole team.

Houston, on the other hand, looks primed for a playoff run for the first time in franchise history. The offense has weapons aplenty, and QB Matt Schaub can run the offense brilliantly at times. With TE Owen Daniels coming from back from injury, the Texans have even more options. Last year, the defense was the problem, particularly the pass defense, so the Texans brought in CB Jonathan Joseph, a top 10 corner, and jettisoned some of the worst starters they had and ably replaced them. The defense might struggle in their new 3-4, but the team has the ability to outscore almost any team, besides elite defenses. In the suddenly weak AFC South (with the issues the Colts are having), the Texans are primed for a division championship, a home playoff game, what have you. They just can't get tied up in their own hype.

For the pick, I'm not sure why, but I think this spread is still a little too high. It's not like the Colts will become an 0-16 team without Peyton Manning. They're going to win some games and stay at least competitive.
Pick: Texans win, Colts cover

Philadelphia (-5) at St. Louis

If you don't know what the Eagles did this summer by now, you probably just don't like the NFL that much, because it was the story of the offseason. I'm not going to go into it here, but they signed the best player on the market (CB Nnamdi Asomugah), traded for a Pro Bowl CB who will probably play in the NICKEL (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) and basically signed all-pro talent on offense and defense to give depth and a new look to the team. The burden of these expectations now falls on QB Michael Vick's shoulders. His health is especially key, since the team doesn't have as good a back up this year (Vince Young). He also needs to show that he can still play on the elite level that he had last year, and that he can fix some of the issues that plagued him at the end of last year (namely, the inability to pick up blitzes). If Michael Vick plays at his transcendent peak, this team is going to be hard to beat. If he struggles behind the offensive line (the weakest point on this team), the team sputters. I, personally, believe in the Eagles, and I can see them easily winning their division. I know, not hard to say, but remember, Andy Reid and his terrible clock management are still at the helm. That could also torpedo the team.

The Rams were one win away from an 8-8 record and a home playoff game last year, but blew it against the Seahawks last year. Still, there's plenty of optimism for a team that went from the 1st overall pick in the draft to 7-9 the next year. QB Sam Bradford is on his way to being a star, and the team is trying to bring in talent around him-WR Mike Sims Walker and RB Jerious Norwood, to name two. Still, the receiving corps around Bradford look a little thin, and it might not be a great step forward for him, even under new offensive coordiantor Josh McDaniels, who loves to wing it. The defense has a pretty good pass rush and good personnel interspersed throughout, despite losing S OJ Atogwe. There's plenty to be hopeful about, but it also must be remembered that this was still a 7-9 team in the NFC West, a division where pretty much every team was decent to bad. They get the benefit of 6 games against the rest of the division to show that they are actually better than them. Something tells me they'll win this division, mostly because they have the best quarterback in the division (not sold on Kevin Kolb yet) and should be able to get to the playoffs, even as the worst team there.

For this game, I don't think the Eagles are going to be clicking immediately, and I don't think they'll dominate this game. St. Louis has had time to prepare for Vick all offseason, and they have a good pass rush which could harras Vick. Still, talent wins out in this game.
Pick: Eagles win, Rams cover

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-6.5)

The battle for Ohio! Guhhhhhhh. Sorry if my enthusiasm for this epic battle wanes. The Bengals are primed for a pretty awful season. Former QB Carson Palmer told the team he would like to be traded; and if he wasn't he would 'retire', and not play for the team. Instead of smartly trading him for Draft picks or an infusion of talent, the Bengals and owner Mike Brown took a stand and are letting him sit out, severely ruining an already bad team. Now rookie QB Andy Dalton steps in, and, if you've ever seen Andy Dalton play, he is a far cry from even Carson Palmer. Like, seriously overmatched at the NFL level. The team also drafted phenom WR AJ Green, but, of course, he has Andy Dalton as his quarterback. The defense lost CB Jonathan Joseph, a great corner, and added Nate Clements, a terrible, overpaid corner, to replace him. Oh yeah, they also lost WR's Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco,who, though getting old, had some talent. The defense- also not impressive. So it's not hard to see this team close to the number one pick in this year's draft, barring some sort of Andy Dalton miracle, or RB Cedric Benson becoming Barry Sanders. Not seeing it.

Cleveland offers a little more hope, but I'm not as hyped on this team as others are. This is, after all, a team that lost to the Bills last year- I don't think they're quite ready for prime time. QB Colt McCoy steps into the starting role after a solid rookie season, but he has yet to prove he is more than a game manager, and his weak core of receivers won't help him out too much. RB Peyton Hillis was a revelation last season-until about Week 11, when he started a serious decline. Maybe he'll be fresher to start this season, but he's not a safe bet to return to his peak form from last season, something the Browns need to be successful. On defense, the Browns are pretty solid, but not world beaters by any stretch of the imagination. Most of the hype for this team revolves around some big step forward; but I don't see that happening, because Colt McCoy still doesn't have weapons on offense, and the defense is just the same as last year. The Browns will be pesky, sure, and might win 7-9 games- but playoffs, not so fast. Not in their division.

As for this game, though, they should be able to dispose of the hapless Bengals. I can't see the Bengals being anything else until I, you know, see otherwise.
Pick: Browns win, cover

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-2)

Oh wow, this one is another doozy. Tennessee brought in Matt Hasslebeck to play QB, RB Chris Johnson is fresh off a lockout, and WR Kenny Britt is also a little under-trained. Tennessee pinned its future on QB Jake Locker in the draft, and Hasslebeck is the stand in, at this point, and if he struggles, the calls to bring in Locker will start. Still, Hasslebeck's main function should be to turn around and hand the ball off to Johnson, one of the best backs in the league, and watch him do his thing. The defense looks to be nothing special. The team also parted ways with coach Jeff Fisher this offseason, and he usually was good for an extra win or two. This team is going to try and run, run, run all day with Chris Johnson, and that should win some contests, but the rest of the team is pretty unimpressive to me. Chalk me up for five wins unless Matt Hasslebeck transforms this offense into something more multidimensional.

Jacksonville is a mess right now, seeing as they cut their presumed starting QB, David Garrard, at the beginning of the week. But no, it definitely wasn't about the money (8 million dollars saved), it was because they thought they had a better option at QB! Luke McNown! Feel the excitement! If he's not doing too much for you, you're pretty much everyone except Jack Del Rio. The team still has top 10 RB Maurice Jones Drew, but not much else on offense, with a weak core of receivers (Mike Thomas is a #1 receiver...in bizzarro world). The defense has a pretty good line, with DE Aaron Kampman, but the linebackers and secondary leave much to be desired, even though they brought in LB Paul Pozluszny. With Garrard, this team was at best a 8-9 win team in the weak AFC South. Now I think best case is 5-7, unless Luke McNown is the next Tom Brady. I won't be holding my breath.

I wouldn't touch this game with real money, betting wise, and picking it is a pain. I'll take the Titans, because this is one match up where they actually have an advantage at QB.
Pick: Titans cover, win

NY Giants (-3) at Washington

Ah, the Amurrica game- NY at Washington on 9/11. If you want to kill yourself, play a drinking game during this game where every time you see an American Flag or someone mentions 9/11, take a shot. You'll be out by the first quarter. Anyway, the Giants came into the season with plenty of optimism, with a strong offense and what was hoped to be a strong defense. Unfortunately, they've had a horrible string of injuries on defense this pre-season, leaving them thin and with less talent across the board. They still have a pretty good defensive line and secondary, but the linebackers are weak and injury decimated. This offense is talented, though. Ahmad Bradshaw is a quality running back, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are top receivers, and Eli Manning can sling it- when he's not throwing it to the other team. With the injuries on defense, this team is going to be forced into a lot of shootouts, and I don't trust them to compete every week like that in the NFC East, where the Eagles and a possibly revitalized Cowboys team loom. They'll be hovering around .500 most of the year unless (yes, this is becoming an every paragraph feature) the defense steps up in a major way.

The Redskins, perennial offseason champs, come into the season having finished one of the worst quarterback battles since JP Losman and Trent Edwards battled it out for the Bills job a couple years ago. Rex Grossman won out over John Beck to take the reins of this team, but, if he falters, I'm sure there will be a quick hook. The offense has looked good in the preseason, with new RB Tim Hightower skyrocketing up fantasy draft boards, but I'm waiting to see it against regular season defense before anointing them as anything special. The defense is similarly wholly decent. In the NFC East, against quality opponents like the Eagles, Cowboys, and the Giants, even, this team will struggle, and they also have to face the Jets and Patriots this year. I'm seeing this team in the basement of the East once again- mostly because of the quarterback situation. If one comes out with flying colors, or the defense becomes imposing, there's more hope, but both seem unlikely. Have fun at 5-6 wins, Washington!

As for the Amurrican Game of the Week, well, I see the Giants winning this one fairly easily, putting solid pressure on Grossman to mask the defensive deficiencies they will have.
Pick: Giants win, cover

Carolina at Arizona (-7)

This is a battle of two quarterbacks making big debuts for each team- Cam Newton for Carolina, and Kevin Kolb for the Cardinals. First, Carolina. Last year's worst team starts this year that it pretty much can't get any worse. 2-14 is hard to top. The team returns the talented RB tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and the offensive line, highly battered last year, returns from injury as a pretty good unit. The defense, outside of MLB John Beason, is overwhelmingly decent. The team's success is going to come down to the play of Cam Newton, and I'm not sure I've seen a top draft pick who needed more development before starting a season, and Cam didn't get that with a shorter offseason. So yeah, there's reasons why this team will improve off 2-14. But they're not going much further than 5 wins- the division is too strong, and they just don't have the talent besides the running game. Cam Newton will get his baptism by fire.

The Cardinals regressed pretty badly last year, mostly because of their terrible offense- the running game was horrendous, and only that was beat by the carnival of awful quarterbacks they started. This offseason, they aggressively traded for former Eagles back up QB Kevin Kolb, giving him the starting job he so desperately wanted. The team still has RB Beanie Wells, who was pretty bad last year, giving him one last chance to show he's a true NFL running back. I wouldn't trust the running game too much here, but that's kind of the point. The Cardinals love to throw the ball, and I'm sure Kolb is going to have fun throwing to bona fide game changer Larry Fitzgerald, WR. The defense is aging and not altogether amazing (besides rookie CB Patrick Peterson), but this is a team built for winning shootouts. How much do you trust in Kolb, though? I'd compare his arrival to Matt Schaub's in Houston- back up QB gets starting shot with a great receiver on his team- but doesn't make the playoffs the first year he's there. The Cardinals will compete with the Rams for the division crown, but fall short, somewhere close to 7-9 wins, with plenty of hope for the next season. Kolb could be great, but the rest of the team needs to catch up.

In this game, though, I like the Cardinals at home against an overmatched Cam Newton. Panthers should be able to cover, though, behind their strong running game.
Pick: Panthers cover, Cardinals win

Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5)

Oh god, it's the NFC West. The dreck of the league. I don't even want to think about these teams for too long, and I wrote a solid three paragraphs about the Bills, possibly the most depressing team in the league to follow. But anyways.

Seattle, after an absurd run to the playoffs at 7-9, traded incumbent QB Matt Hasslebeck away and picked up a new QB, pinning their hopes on...Tavaris Jackson. Tavaris. Jackson. Tavaris Jackson is like a more raw, less gifted version of Cam Newton- with more NFL experience, somehow. The offensive line is injured and not getting any better, severely limiting an offense already led by Tavaris Jackson. The Seahawks also went and picked up WR Sidney Rice and TE Zach Miller to bring some offensive fire works, but, then again, Tavaris Jackson is the QB. RB Marshawn Lynch, I think, is being pretty underrated- he's always run behind bad offensive lines, and will get plenty of work here, because, well, you guessed it, Tavaris Jackson is playing quarter back. The defense is worthy of a shrug- nothing special. So, as you can see by this preview, unless Tavaris Jackson becomes...well...someone else, this team is stuck somewhere around 4 wins this year, way outside playoff contention.

The 49ers at least have the foundations to contend in the NFC West- RB Frank Gore is great when healthy, and the defense, led by LB Patrick Willis, is nothing to sniff at. The problem is, Alex Smith is still the quarterback, and the top two receivers are Ted Ginn are Braylon Edwards, two guys who are only good at running straight and catching long balls. This team, for me, holds just about a little more promise this year than the Seahawks- like, 5-6 wins this year- because from what I've seen, Alex Smith is not a good NFL quarterback, and the rest of the team can't overcome that. Still, they'll give a little bit of trouble to the Cardinals and Rams.

As for this awful, confined to the ninth circle of hell game, I'll take the Niners to win and cover. I don't want to even think about this game anymore.
Pick: Niners win, cover

Minnesota at San Diego (-8.5)

Minnesota booted coach Brad Childress during last season and finally got rid of Brett Favre, replacing them with Leslie Frazier and QB Donovan McNabb. While I like the Frazier upgrade, McNabb hasn't looked so good since he's left the Eagles system. The Vikings still have RB Adrian Peterson, who can win football games, but the rest of the offense might struggle without a bona fide number one receiver (sorry, Percy Harvin). The defense, though, is good- the line can get plenty of pressure and stop the run, they have good linebackers and secondary. This team should be able to stay in games with that defense, but I can't see them consistently putting up points, which will be their downfall. Mediocrity is one thing you can get when you acquire Donovan McNabb.

The Chargers, meanwhile, must've offended the Gypsy from Drag Me to Hell or something, because they were continually plagued by bad luck last year, particularly in special teams. (As Bill Barnwell pointed out, 4 of 9 blocked punts came against them last year). The Chargers have a high scoring offense led by QB Phillip Rivers, WRs Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, and perhaps RB Ryan Matthews. The defense is fast and aggressive, looking for turnovers. Barring one of their traditional slow starts, this team looks set to win the AFC West and contend for the Super Bowl. There's just too much talent- only another gypsy curse can bring them down, so I hope they gave that button to the Jets or something. (If you haven't seen Drag Me to Hell, you're missing out).

So, obviously, I like the Chargers here, but I can see the Vikings hanging around behind their D and Adrian Peterson.
Pick: Chargers win, Vikings cover

Dallas at NY Jets (-4.5)

Speaking of the Jets... I'll try not to let my distaste for this team show through in this. The Jets have made a rapid ascent to the peak (or near it) of the AFC since hiring Rex Ryan. Problem is, they haven't found a way to win the AFC Championship game yet, and Rex Ryan's Super Bowl predictions are starting to wear thin. QB Mark Sanchez, is, as anyone will tell you, the key to the team's success- can he progress above being a glorified game manager? Till he shows that, this team will continue to rely on a stingy D and a strong running game that opens up the air for WRs Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes a little bit. The team did lose some depth all around, though, which could spell trouble if the team gets any injuries or players underperform. Still, I can't see this team not making the playoffs- the defense is just that good. I would love to see them bottom out, though. (Oops, I couldn't do it).

Ooh, the Cowboys, a team I also hate! Rooting for the meteor in this match up, folks. Anyway, the Cowboys had a disastrous 6-10 season last year behind some bad injuries and a terrible record in close games. Now the team should have a healthy QB Tony Romo for a whole season, with RB Felix Jones taking over the main role, and WRs Miles Austin and Dez Bryant heading up the receiver core. This should be a good offense, and the defense has the ability to be pretty good, with OLB DeMarcus Ware. Unfortunately, the defensive backfield isn't strong, which will be trouble against elite passing teams.

The good news is, the Jets aren't an elite passing team, so the Cowboys should be able to stick around in this game, but I still see the Jets taking this one with a great defensive performance- CB Darrell Revis will be in top form.
Pick: Jets win, Cowboys cover

New England (-7) at Miami

New England has been great for the past decade and don't show any signs of stopping now. As long as Tom Brady is the QB, this team will be in a position to win 10+ games. The offense is still a high powered machine, no matter the other personnel. The defense needed to beef up, so they got Albert Haynesworth, hoping to build him back to his pro bowl form. I don't need to say much- the Patriots are going to be good, they'll win the division, and probably be close to the Super Bowl. Same old, same old.

Miami, on the other hand, has Chad Henne at QB, and that about does it for me. Sure, the defense could be GREAT, but Chad Henne+ one good receiver+ no proven running backs= a disaster. This team is going to hold teams to low scores, but will not be able to match them consistently- there's just not enough talent on the offensive side, and I see Miami battling the Bills for the AFC East cellar. The defense will have to be transcendent for any more to happen.

Yep. I like New England here. Couldn't you tell?
Pick: New England wins, covers.

Oakland at Denver (-3)

The Broncos struggled last year, unable to stop anyone even when they could put up points. The defense this year should be improved by the return of DE Elvis Dumervil and the drafting of DE/OLB Von Miller, giving the Broncos a good pass rush. The linebackers are otherwise nothing special, and, besides CB Champ Bailey, there's not much to say about the secondary. The offense should be more conservative under John Fox, which is good news for RB Knowshon Moreno, and not as good news for QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Lloyd, who won't be so explosive this year. This team should be improved off last year, but they can't compete with the Chiefs or Chargers for the AFC West. 6-7 wins, perhaps?

Oakland is, as usual, a catastrophe. They fired the one coach who actually made them semi-decent and ruined all the momentum they may have built up last year. The lone bright spot may be RB Darren McFadden, the offense's only true weapon. The defense lost their best CB and didn't do a good job replacing him, leaving this defense pretty vulnerable. Look for Oakland to fall back into the depths of the cellar this year. 3-5 wins sounds about right.

As for the pick, well. Denver wins and covers, because, well, they're 3 points better than the Raiders.
Pick: Denver wins, covers

Wow. That was a very long column. Future picks won't be quite so long. Anyway, IT'S FOOTBALL TIME! OH GOD YES! Enjoy, everybody.

College Football didn't get Ballsier, It Just Got Smarter

2011-09-01T20:27:00.000-07:00

Tonight, the College Football season began (go Sconnie!), and with it came some buzz for a couple of games between ranked opponents- Boise St- Georgia and Oregon-LSU, to name the biggest. ESPN, of course, has been hyping up these games, and heralding some new era of ballsiness in College Football. Woah, instead of playing a creampuff in their first week, these teams are playing big time games! How risky!

The problem is, it's not. These games have very little risk versus a very high reward- win or lose- that no team should pass up, and it's because of the dirty secret of the BCS- it's better to lose early than lose late, no matter the opponent.

The worst part of College Football, as I've lamented before, is that every program is extremely risk averse. The system itself rewards that. A team that played the hardest schedule in the league (conference schedule+ top 20 ranked non conference opponents) and lost two games would likely be shut out of the BCS bowls; a team that plays a middling schedule, with the standard conference schedule and no or #20-#25 ranked non conference opponents, and went undefeated, would likely be put in one of the major bowls. And yes, some conferences (the SEC and the Big 10 and 12, sort of) have good conference schedules that challenge each team, and they are usually rewarded for surviving that gauntlet- but for the most part, the undefeated team that played the easier schedule has a better shot than the two loss team that played the hardest schedule, or even a one loss team in many cases. The system doesn't reward stronger schedules- it rewards staying undefeated against decent opponents and playing the conference schedule out. So there's almost no incentive to schedule multiple difficult games during a season, or even any hard non conference game.

Well, besides the opening weekend. A nationally televised opener brings in tons of revenue (millions for each team), tons of exposure to fans and possible recruits, and also acts as either a defining win to start the season or a safeguard for the rest of the season. If the team wins, they instantly get tons of media attention and become national title contenders (unless the team they beat absolutely falls apart during the year, which is rare). If they lose, though, they can always say that they lost to a good team and then run the table and become the best one loss team in the Nation by the end of the year.

Losing once is devastating in College Football- it sends panic into the voters, who move the team down in the rankings, affecting the BCS standings. When a team loses early, though, it is able to build momentum throughout the rest of the season and climb back up the polls, even before the BCS standings are released. The voters have a fairly short memory, and a first week loss is gradually forgotten, forgiven, and the team is given consideration right behind or sometimes in front of the undefeated teams. Losing late in the season effectively shuttles any chance for a BCS bowl- the team has no time to recover from the drop in the polls and it usually ends up with losing at least a shot at the National title if not a chance at a BCS Bowl. For example, the 2008 Texas Tech team that shocked Texas had a chance at a BCS Bowl if not the National Title late in the season; and were then beaten by Oklahoma. They lost the division tiebreaker to Texas, didn't get to play in the Big 12 title game, and were put in the Cotton Bowl. Texas, a team TEXAS TECH HAD BEATEN, got to play in the Fiesta Bowl. Texas lost earlier and could recover; Texas Tech was shut out because of a late loss to a team many thought was #1 in the Nation. It's always better to lose early, unless it's a disaster on the level of Michigan-Appalachian State.

So the programs of these teams entering big games this weekend aren't really taking that big of a risk. They get money, exposure, and the chance to make a huge statement to the voters early in the season. If they lose, they still have the chance to make it up throughout the season instead of suffering a huge setback late in the season. Don't get me wrong- I'm excited to watch these games, but it will be with the knowledge that this is a calculated risk, a game that won't really affect the National title race unless it is a drubbing. It's not ballsy. It's just smart.

NHL Western Conference Offseason Review

2011-08-28T11:53:00.000-07:00

Alright, here comes part two of the NHL Offseason Review, and I'm writing this from Montreal, which is probably the best place in the world to be if you're writing about hockey. Also, if you like to have fun, I highly suggest it. Anyways, onto the teams and their offseason moves, and a tiny little prognostication.

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim, hockey hotbed.... oh, who am I kidding. It's Anaheim, where people don't even show up to baseball games on time, and pretty much never show up to hockey games. The Ducks were pretty exciting last year, what with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf, but it wasn't enough to get them past the first round. This year they went out and traded forMathieu Carle (D, Montreal) and Andrew Cogliano (F, Edmonton) to bolster the front and back lines, without losing too much in the process. So, mild improvement. With Hedburg back in goal and the offense slightly improved, they might get past round 1 this time.

Calgary Flames

Calgary's been on the decline for a couple years now, as their formerly all star core starts to age. This offseason looks like an attempt to get a little younger- they traded Robyn Regehr to Buffalo in return for young, somewhat promising Chris Butler and Paul Byron, and signed a couple new faces from around the league. Is it enough to return Jerome Iginla to the playoffs? This team still looks understaffed and not ready for any postseason success.

Chicago Blackhawks

The gist of the Blackhawks offseason was to get tougher. They lost some good two way forwards, but then just decided to sign and trade for bigger, tougher guys up front. Andrew Brunette, from Minnesota, adds a physically big scoring threat to the team, Carcillo (Philly) brings some dickishness, and the Blackhawks might be able to develop Rostislav Olesz (Florida) into a more consistent scoring threat. Overall, after getting out-toughed in their first round series against hated Vancouver, the Blackhawks responded this offseason by bulking up. This is a Cup contender in the West, once again.

Colorado Avalanche

Colorado missed out on the playoffs last year; and it appears they've made moves to try and get back. Without losing too much, they infused a massive amount of talent all over the ice- three new goalies, Hejda (Columbus) and O' Brien (Nashville) on D, and Kobasew (Minnesota) up front. Building around Paul Stansy after trading Chris Stewart last year is the path their taking, and they might be able to sneak into the playoffs.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Will Columbus ever be relavent? They just remain unknown, a team disappearing in what David Foster Wallace would call the Great Ohio Desert (English Nerdiness over now). This team might be trying to do something about that, though, with a ton of moves they made (probably to counter all the departures, as well). Most notably, they traded for Jeff Carter (Philadelphia) and picked up James Wisnewski (Montreal) and Vaclav Prospal (New York). They've got two pretty decent lines now, so, who knows, maybe someone will be watching when Rick Nash does something awesome in Columbus.

Dallas Stars

In news that I am glad to hear, there was a pretty big talent drain in Dallas this year (still not forgiven for their 1999 Stanley Cup. Never). They lost Brad Richards to New York, as well as Langenbrunner (St. Louis) and some other good players. For replacements sake, they brought in Michael Ryder (Montreal) and some others (Shelden Souray, for one), but the damage is still done. Dallas is going to have some trouble scoring consistently, and they'll have some trouble staying in contention.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings' core of aging stars might not have many runs left in them. The team stayed effectively neutral this offseason, picking up Mike Commodore (Columbus) and Ian White (San Jose), while losing Kris Draper and Brian Rafalski to retirement. The team will still be near the top of the West, as per usual, but not Cup contenders anymore.

Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton hasn't done much of anything since their surprise run to the Stanley Cup finals in the mid 2000s. This team is very young, but they did bring in some nice additions to bring some experience to the team, and maybe some winning. The pickups of Ryan Smyth (LA), Ben Eager (San Jose), Eric Belanger (Phoenix) and Cam Barker (Minnesota) offset some of the losses this team faced, such as Sheldon Souray (Dallas), Andrew Cogliano (Anaheim), and Colin Fraser (LA). This team could be one on the rise, but they have a pretty big mountain to climb to get back to the playoffs.

Los Angeles Kings

The LA Kings are riding a resurgence right now, and they had a big offseason to try and take that next step. They brought in Mike Richards from Philadelphia and Simon Gagne from Tampa Bay to add scoring to an already dangerous offense. This offsets some of their loses, like Ponikarovsky (Carolina), Smyth (Edmonton) and Handzus (San Jose). The Kings will once again be near the top of the West, and maybe even get to the Conference Finals. Hockey in LA...I guess it'll work.

Minnesota Wild

Minnesota has such a rabid fanbase, but they haven't really done much in the playoffs to convert any legions from outside Minnesoh-ta. They traded Martin Havlat and Brent Burns to San Jose in exchange for Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, which seems like a steal for the Wild offense (even if losing Burns is a big hit to their defense). They also lost Brunette (Chicago) and Cam Barker (Edmonton). This team looks to be little improved from last season, all told, and they might scrape the playoffs, but I doubt it.

Nashville Predators

Ok, nobody really cares about this team. It's Nashville. To be honest, their offseason was nothing special- lost some guys, brought in able replacements. They'll keep playing defensive hockey, leaning on Pekka Rinne, and improbably finish well in the playoffs, infuriating teams with their ability to win despite seemingly no offensive weapons.

Phoenix Coyotes

Phoenix is like Nashville, except a million times less people could care about them. They made a bunch of signings, and they're all really...decent players. Nothing special. Then note that they lost Jovanovski, Belanger, and this kind of important guy, Ilya Bryzgalov, and it looks like Phoenix will come tumbling out of the playoffs this year.

San Jose Sharks

Ah, the Sharks. It is so easy to predict when you'll lose in the playoffs. It seems as if it will never ever even be in the Stanley Cup Finals, with the level of chokitude this team exhibits. The biggest move they made was the trade with Minnesota where they picked up Marty Havlat and Brent Burns (a huge defensive addition). They lost Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, though, which is a hit to the offense. Still, it looks like this team is trying to bolster up on defense, and that might get them deep into the playoffs again, but I don't see any addition that will take them to the Stanley Cup finals.

St. Louis Blues

St. Louis is another pretty forgettable hockey team, and their offseason is one of the most boring I've seen. Lose no one too big, don't bring in any one too big. All the losses are offset with some decent signing. I can't muster any enthusiasm for anything this team has done. They'll be same old St. Louis. Nothing doing.

Vancouver Canucks

I started with Boston, and now I finish with Vancouver, the team Boston beat in the Stanley Cup finals. Vancouver didn't do much either this offseason, besides bringing in Marco Sturm from Washington and losing Christian Ehrhoff to the Sabres. They'll once again dominate the Regular Season, but with Luongo still in net... they won't be Cup winners, sorry.

Parsing the NHL Offseason: Eastern Conference

2011-08-26T15:53:00.000-07:00

If you read my last post (all four of you!), you would know that I spent the last two months in the isolation booth that is my camp, sheltered from the daily onslaught of information that plagues anyone who uses the internet. I've been back for a week, now, and I'm slowly reentering the deluge. Little known fact: A lot happens in two months! So here's a little breakdown of the NHL Offseason for each team, from a guy who's just learning about it now. We start in the Eastern Conference, my preferred conference, the one I know just a little bit more about. Alphabetically, of course.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins sat pretty comfortably on their (oh god this hurts just a little bit) Stanley Cup Champion haunches, choosing not to make any big moves. Instead, they simply replaced parts that they lost in the free agency period. Michael Ryder left, so the Bruins went out and signed Benoit Pouliot from the hated Canadiens. Both Ryder and Pouliot are inconsistent wingers who can sometimes find the net, so its a zero sum acquisition. The Bruins also lost Thomas Kaberle to Carolina, and promptly traded for Joe Corvo- another offensive defenseman. The strategy, then, was just to replace spare parts, to keep the motor running. I'm sure the hope is that some young players--Marchand, Seguin, will continue to evolve into consistent scoring threats, the defense stays strong, and Tim Thomas is even half as good as he was last year (I don't think any Goalie can keep that ridiculous streak up- just look at Ryan Miller last year). The Bruins are betting that the same team-essentially- can do it again.

Buffalo Sabres

Well, I pretty much covered this in my last post, but the Sabres were major offseason players for the first time since...well... not since I've ever known. They traded for Christian Ehrhoff (Vancouver), a great offensive defenseman, as well as Robyn Regehr (Calgary), a big, physical defensive defenseman. Their big offensive splash was playmaking center/winger Ville Leino (Philadelphia). They also resigned key members from last years' playoff run: Stafford, Gerbe, Enroth, etc. They lost Tim Connolly to the Leafs, but not many are mourning his departure. Terry Pegula came in as the Sabres new owner and said that the only goal he had was to bring a Stanley Cup to Buffalo, and these moves reflected that- an improvement on defense and a splash on offense, and a lot of dollars spent to take this team close to the top of the conference. The lack of depth at center is troubling, though.

Carolina Hurricanes

This team is just about my least favorite in the whole NHL. Team in a market that doesn't deserve a hockey team? Check. Beat the Sabres on the cusp of a Stanley Cup victory behind crappy officiating? Check. CHEERLEADERS? IN HOCKEY? Check. Ugh. Anyway, this team signed Kaberle from Boston and Ponikarovsky from LA, along with some other physical forwards, in an effort, I'm sure, to toughen up. They lost some defensive depth, though, and big winger Erik Cole. Overall, there doesn't look to be much improvement for a team that just missed out on the playoffs last season. They'll probably be around that point again barring some major steps forward on the roster.

Florida Panthers

Holy jesus, the Florida Panthers made an absurd amount of moves. But for all the praise this spree is getting (ESPN called it the best offseason in the NHL), I can't help but say, Arrested Devolpment style, "Her?" The list of free agents signed is long but unspectacular. The biggest names on it are Sean Bergenheim (Tampa), Kris Versteeg (Philadelphia), Ed Jovanovski (Phoenix) and Brian Campbell (Chicago). The 15 other names on the list are, somehow, less impressive than that. The biggest strength this oft forgotten team had was goaltender Thomas Vokoun, and he fled to Washington, where people care about hockey. The goalie they brought in is Jose Theodore (Montreal), and, well, CuJos been around the block a couple times, getting a little long in the tooth, is no spring chicken...insert your "This guy is OLD" descriptors. The team has been improved, sure- I like the Bergenheim signing and the Kopecky (Chicago)- but not by much. For me, it looks like a mediocre team swapped in a new mediocre team, this time with worse offense. This is a step towards contention, but playoff hockey for the Panthers still seems far off. God, I hope this team moves to Quebec City. (Attn. NHL Moneymaking Department,which is probably understaffed.)
t
Montreal Canadiens

Ah, the team of my future city. That's right, I'm going to McGill this year, and I'll be immersed in one of hockey's epicenters. Also, I might be getting the crap beaten out of me for wearing any Sabres gear. So, I'm going to have to be careful, but I'll also be in a country that cares for hockey above anything else. Anyway, Montreal (the team) didn't do much this offseason. They lost some defenseman and the aforementioned Benoit Pouliot, but signed Erik Cole (Carolina) to beef up the front line and some veteran defenseman. It should be more of the same in Montreal, probably battling Buffalo for 2nd in the Northeast behind Boston. Remember, this is a team that took Boston to seven very close games, so, they didn't need to make tons of improvements to contend near the top of the conference.

New Jersey Devils

A year after signing Ilya Kovalchuk to one of the most absurdly huge, backloaded contracts I've ever seen, the Devils did close to nothing this offseason. They added some tough, gritty forwards, and...well, they didn't lose anyone. It seems the Devils are betting on a return to playoff form because of the return of Zach Parise. Looking over the lines, though, the Devils don't look like they have enough offensive depth to get back. The Devils really need to get a youth movement going, because right now they're a team left behind by time, stuck in the late 2000s.

New York Islanders

Ah, the bastard child of the New York- New Jersey sports scene. The Islanders haven't been relavent since... well, I remember the Sabres played them in the playoffs one year, and they were the eight seed.... well, anyway. The Islanders are in the midst of their own youth revival, led by former number one pick John Tavares. They signed Sean Backman (Dallas) and Brian Rolston (New Jersey) for some more depth up front. They tried to acquire Christian Ehrhoff by trading for his rights, but he refused to sign with the Islanders. Bummer for them, a party for the Sabres. Either way, this is a team to watch in the future, but they're still missing a quality Goalie to take them the next step. The Islanders remain in relative obscurity.

New York Rangers

The Rangers, as they are wont to do, won the one big name on the market this year, Brad Richards (Dallas). Richards is a bona fide top line center, a great scorer, an able passer. He adds some offense to a team that sorely needed it. They didn't sign anyone else of great note, and didn't lose anyone big besides Vaclav Prospal. Hopes are high in New York now, but can Brad Richards bring the Rangers to Stanley Cup contention almost singlehandedly? I lean towards no, given the track record of Rangers free agent signings wilting under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. Brad Richards, welcome to the stable of big name free agents! Won a Cup yet? No, not yet? Alright, let's get another one!

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa was a perennial contender in the East for most of the late 2000s, and then last year they fell off the face of the Earth. The core (Spezza, Alfredsson, Michalek) is talented, but old. The 'big' signing the Sens made was Nikita Filatov, the young Russian sniper who has oodles of potential and almost no consistency. Maybe in this system, though, he could blossom. There was also a decent talent drain, with 8 departures. The Senators look ready for another season out of the playoffs, a minor pest in the Eastern Conference.

Philadelphia Flyers

Oooh, another team I despise (call it being a sore loser, but still, Philly. Yuck.) The Flyers had one of the most newsworthy offseasons', if not the best. They dumped Mike Richards (LA Kings), Jeff Carter (Columbus), Ville Leino (Buffalo), Kris Versteeg (Florida) and Dan Carcillo (Chicago) in an attempt to reinvigorate the team behind a new crop of stars- Claude Giroux and James Van Riemsdyk. They also signed Jaromir Jagr from the Euro-Leagues and Maxim Talbolt from the Penguins, to bolster their depth. Most important, though, was the acquisition of Ilya Bryzgalov, the outstanding goalie from Phoenix. Anyone who watched Philadelphia play musical chairs with their goalies last year could see that goalie should've been far and away their most pressing matter this offseason, and they solved it by getting an elite goalie, which spells trouble for the rest of the Eastern Conference. This team got younger, but also got better, much to my chagrin. They'll challenge Pittsburgh for the Atlantic title and the Eastern Conference itself.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins didn't bring in anyone special- just some depth on the front line- and didn't lose anyone of note, really, besides Maxim Talbolt. Boring. The key to this offseason was rehabbing stars Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, and, despite some organizational shadiness, it seems as if those two will be back. This team succeeded last year despite this injuries, and with those two back, will be right back near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay is one of the few success stories from the NHL's awful decision to go South of the Mason-Dixon line, and its mostly because they won a Stanley Cup. Last year, they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals and gave the Bruins a pretty tough test. They didn't do much to improve this summer, especially after losing Simon Gagne (LA Kings) and Sean Bergenheim (Florida). The team is banking on the continued production from Stamkos, St. Louis, and Lecavalier, and hoping that Dwyane Roloson continues to play beyond his age. It's a bold, misguided strategy, and it'll probably leave Tampa where it was last year- second in the Southeast Conference- but with less playoff success.

Washington Capitals

Washington is clearly tired of losing in the playoffs. They addressed one of their biggest needs, goalie, by signing Thomas Vokoun, and then added a ton of depth all over the ice, with notables Roman Hamrlik (D, Montreal) and Troy Brouwer (W, Chicago). The Capitals also didn't lose any hugely important pieces- if anything, they cut the fat off this team and made it more playoff ready. The transition they're trying to make is one from "Regular Season Champs" to "Stanley Cup Champs", and with this ambitious set of moves, they look ready to contend, finally.

Winnipeg Jets

Ah, the Eastern Conference Winnipeg Jets, aka We're Going to Be in The West Next Season Winnipeg Jets. The biggest move this team made was, obviously, the move from Atlanta to Winnipeg (which is a totally bizarre city... floods are a way of life there. They take flooding like its NOTHING. Oh, my basement's about to flood. Better have a sandbag party!). The team is pretty much the same as last year (some decent new faces, some decent departures), which is mildly interesting, but not talented enough for a playoff run. At least someone will be paying attention to their mediocrity this year.

Alrighty, thats the Eastern Conference. Look in the next couple days for the Western Conference, and maybe something about being in Montreal.

Under the Northern Lights

2011-08-21T15:18:00.000-07:00

Camp Pathfinder, where I've spent my last ten summers, seven as a camper, three as staff, is a canoe tripping camp in Algonquin Park, Canada. It's also a wellspring of blind optimism for the Bills and Sabres. The camp was founded in 1914 by two Rochester men, and the current enrollment of staff and campers is mostly comprised of guys from Buffalo and Rochester. Every June when I go up, I know there are at least fifteen people I can detailed conversations with about Buffalo sports. This stands in stark opposition to the decidedly one sided, slightly alienating conversations I have in Chicago. At camp, there are people who understand. We can commiserate over the pain of the last season or, rarely, delight in the highs we've experienced in the past year.

July 1st is the beginning of free agency in the NHL; and it's also the day the first set of campers arrive, referred to as "The Big Moment." While some staff say that they are disappointed to know that the campers are coming to ruin the staff-only paradise, there is still a sense of anticipation hanging in the air, a buzz, as we sit and wait by the motorboat dock (the camp is on an island) for campers to arrive. There is card playing, idle conversation, some reading, as we wait, and kids being dropped off by their parents slowly trickle in (as opposed to the ones who take the Buffalo/Rochester buses, who arrive in a massive flood) and staff man care called on to carry trunks and duffles to sleepages after their camper has taken an obligatory photo.

This year, however, a new anticipation was suffused onto the day for me and six or seven other diehards. We wondered, we speculated, we day dreamed a little bit. What would the Sabres do today? With our new owner, Terry Pegula, a free spender with one stated goal- win a Stanley Cup- we were suddenly players in the free agent market. The team was actively making moves to shape itself into a contender, a feeling I've never had in the Sabres (or the Bills), and I've only had once or twice before, when the Cubs made midseason trades in '03 and had big free agency splashes in '06-'07 with Soriano and Fukudome. Otherwise, my teams have always tried to homegrow talent and strike lucky from there, a plan that sometimes works but often leaves your team defeated in the conference championships, the league championships, never with a chance to play for the overall championship. This was the case with the Briere-Drury Sabres in '04-'06, the Cubs in '03 (sort of), the Bills in '99 (the last time they've made the playoffs) and the Bulls this year.

So now I got to watch, in a new kind of joy, as the Sabres tried to make that next step. First, pre July 1st, came the trade for Calgary defenseman Robyn Regehr (along with Ales Kotalik, back from sabbatical), a pure defensive guy, one who finishes his checks, a tough guy the Sabres need. News on the island is hard to come by- there is electricity on about four buildings on the island, cell phones are seldom used and basically banned, and there is a scarcely available computer with an internet connection. So this kind of news came to us in trickles, each new morsel satisfying our craving for information.

So we had gotten Regehr, and only traded fellow defenseman Chris Butler and Paul Byron, a young, expendable forward, undersized. Butler was maddeningly inconsistent. The only thing he could do consistently, it seemed, was screw up in important moments, and most fans did not trust him anymore, so it did not hurt to see him go.

I learned the next bit of pre July 1st news in a van on the eve of a day long whitewater training trip. The Sabres had just completed a trade for the rights to sign RFA D-man Christian Ehrhoff for only a fourth round pick, and promptly signed him the next day. Ehrhoff is an offensively talented defenseman who played in Vancouver last season, providing solid play on the powerplay and playing first pair minutes. With his signing, suddenly, the Sabres have, for the first time I can remember, a formidable defense. And all this before free agency had begun! Defense is something you can never have enough of in hockey, and the Sabres especially needed more after being exposed by the Flyers in this year's playoffs. Simply put, Ryan Miller couldn't do it alone. There are some nights when he is unbeatable and our defense can be subpar. But when it's not his night, and he's not playing at his transcendent peak, that was when the holes of the defense were exposed and the Sabres would lose because of it unless the offense made a monumental effort, not something that could be counted on consistently.

Now, though, the defense should be strong. The top four of Tyler Myers, Ehrhoff, Regehr and Jordan Leopold rivals any other in the leagues in terms of depth. The last pair, probably Marc-Andre Gragnani and Andrej Sekera, have plenty of potential, now get to play third pair minutes and develop into solid players, providing more depth. Tyler Myers should be particularly pleased by these additions- last year he couldn't play his usual offensive style of defensive because he lacked a solid defensive partner. Now he can settle into the groove he started to enter at the tail end of last season. For the whole unit, the hope is now that they will be tougher and able to punish teams defensively, allowing our offense to work in the other teams' zone. One maddening thing I've noticed about the defense is the inability to clear the puck after gaining the puck in their own zone-especially in the playoffs- and maybe, with more experience, that issue can be solved. Ehrhoff also brings considerable skill on the power play and on offense in general, a huge boost to the overall team.

So all this had come to pass in the week leading up to The Big Moment. As July 1st approached, we had visions in our heads of Brad Richards, a top line center (just what the Sabres need), the cream of the free agent crop, who we were reportedly in the contention for despite his price tag. As noon rolled by, the bell on the island rang for the arrival of campers, and also marked the beginning of NHL free agency.

We had to wait by the dock for our campers to arrive, or else I would've been trying to get on a computer to get updates. Luckily, a fellow staffman, Gill, who might be the biggest Sabres fan I've ever met, was receiving text updates on the sly from his friends in Buffalo, as well as my friend Jeremy. So every twenty to thirty minutes or so, I'd talk to them both for any sort of update. Not much was going on in the early going- no news of any sort. We talked about how good our defense was going to be and other moves we could make. Gill smartly pointed out that Tyler Myers was going to be a free agent next year, so some money had to be saved to keep a future Norris Trophy contender on the team for the long term future. My spirits were dampened, but still, I knew we were going to do something.

Finally, after some interminable time, we had news, unexpected at that. It was not Brad Richards, no, it was Ville Leino, a RFA who the Flyers hadn't kept and I didn't even know would be on the market. Leino is a skilled winger who adds a scoring punch to the lineup. He has bounced from the Red Wings to the Flyers, two teams loaded with talent, and hasn't gotten the chance to be on a top six player, which he now has. Jeremy had seen reports that the Flyers would regret letting him go, which is always good news (though, I know now they acquired Bryzgalov, a top goalie. Still, they had a weird offseason, contenders dumping quality players and signing a back-from-the-KHL Jaromir Jagr). And, on a personal note, he always seemed to kill the Sabres whenever they played the Flyers, but now he had switched sides. Sure, he wasn't Brad Richards, but he helps the offense, another sniper who can aid our offense and powerplay. The Sabres last season seemed to be missing just one piece on offense, and while a center would've been nice, Leino should fit in quite nicely. The top six forwards project to be Vanek, Leino, Roy (hopefully in pre-injury form), Stafford, Gerbe and Ennis, though there's only one center in that group, so Brad Boyes will have to step in, and Pominville is a great two way forward who will probablu be among the top two lines. McCormick, Kaleta, Gaustad, Kotalik, Hecht, and maybe Luke Adam or Zach Kassain- Adam the AHL Rookie of the Year, Kassain a recent first round pick, fill out the rest. It is not a murderers' row, but there is a depth we haven't had since '04-'06, when the Sabres had four reasonably productive lines. The middle is decidedly weak, but that is an issue that should be worked on throughout the season, with Luke Adam hopefully stepping up. Overall, with the Sabres resigning Gerbe and Stafford, and bringing in Leino, the offense is unquestionably better. The team seems to take on Boston for the division crown and contend for the East and maybe even a Stanley Cup. Last year, at camp, we shook our heads as we learned that the Big Free Agent acquisition was Rob Niedermayer. Now, we celebrated.

The losses we suffered weren't bad, either. Richards went to the Rangers for a high price, filling out their stable of high priced stars who all seem to fade out under the bright lights. We let Steve Montador go- he was now expendable with the new defensive acquistions. My Blackhawks fan friends were excited to get him but most Sabres fans are ambivalent. He was over-the-hill, anyway. Most hilarious was the 'loss' of Tim Connolly, the perennially injured, too often showboating, party animal center, chased out of Buffalo behind cocaine rumors. And who signs him but the Maple Leafs, desperately overpaying the center in a thin market, to try and look like they are making an effort to get back in contention. They signed him to two years, 9.5 million, a bigger cap hit per year than Leino is to the Sabres. There are some Leafs fans at camp and I spent a good deal of time laughing in their faces.

That was July 1st and beyond. My commiserates were lost in a daze of optimism for the next couple days, an optimism, this time, that was actually based on something real, a reaction to to something that has actually happened as instead of a hope of the unseen, of something that could happen if the pieces fell into place magically. Now, this time, there was someone placing the pieces, planning ahead, making us believe.

As for the Bills, well, we kept believing in the pieces somehow falling into place, stumbling through a field of fog looking for a beacon. The lockout ended later than I expected- I kept coming back from canoe trips, expecting it to be over, but kept getting the same news- no news, no progress. But near the end of July, when news hit that the owners had come to an agreement, and the players had signed off to the new deal, the fervent Bills optimism began. "Now we can begin our Super Bowl Run! Bills in 2011!" said many, in the way that only Bills fans can. Hope is really all we have left, and we cling to it, shoot for the moon and invariably miss it, but still ready to make the journey again. In a word we are indefatigable, we can't give up now.

The Bills, unlike the current Sabres, do not spend big. They are one of the teams far below the salary cap, but they do not have or intend to spend the money. As the 1st half ended, I traveled with a friend to Buffalo to spend two days off between the two halves. This was just as the lockout ended, so SportsCenter was exploding with football, with not a word about the Bills, of course. Still, it was nice to see football back and now the Bills would report to camp soon. I returned to camp for 2nd Half and the slow trickle of news began again. The Bills resigned all their draft picks, a good sign. The Bills had what I thought was actually a good draft, focusing on fixing a leaky run defense. Unfortunately, in the first days of Free Agency, we lost Paul Pozlusny, severely thinning an already weak linebacking crew. We did sign Nick Barnett, former Rookie of the Year, coming off the IR, who might just be better than Poz. The Bills made some more minor splashes, with the signing of Brad Smith, a receiver who specializes in gadget plays (the Wildcat), and adding some depth at WR (especially now that we traded Lee Evans- but to be honest, he was a shell of a number one receiver, and there are a lot of guys below him who look ready to play). I guess its a good pick up, if only to screw with the Jets gadget plays. The Bills also picked up a back up quarterback, Tyler Thigpen, who has thrived under Chan Gailey's system before. Now he serves as a dependable back up if Fitzpatrick gets hurt. In the end, the Bills, through this whole offseason, have gotten a tiny bit better. The D-line, with Dareus (he's looked great this pre-season) and Kyle Williams, might be the first good D-line we've had since Pat Williams was a Bill. The secondary looks decent, and the linebackers have some potential and might be helped by the improved D Line. On offense, the Bills have plenty of potential- a young, deep set of receivers; Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, hopefully effectively splitting carries, and Fitzpatrick making more ballsy decisions as he settles into the role as at least the transition franchise quarter back. The offensive line is still iffy, but perhaps developing into a decent unit. It's easy to forget that the Bills played 9 games against playoff teams last year, including both Super Bowl participants and the Jets and Patriots each twice, and took the Ravens, Steelers and Chiefs to overtime. They kept it close with the Bears and the Patriots once. They're not far from being .500 or even a playoff bid.

I see three possibilities- a sneaky playoff run (wild card); they hang around till the end of the season and just miss the playoffs (labeled a sleeper team for next season); they bottom out and get the first pick (Andrew Luck!). There is nothing behing that three pronged, cover all the bases prediction other than feeling, either blinding hope of damning realistic pessimism. At camp, though, we just laugh off the bad omens, bear through the storm clouds collecting, and march through, gazes fixed on what awaits s on the end of the trail, that it will be a place of beauty, as it is on our canoe trips. It is this reassurance that aids us to sleep as we lay down in our tents for another magnificent night, beneath a night sky that is full of satellites, constellations, shooting stars, possibility.

Live from Wrigley Field, it's... The One and Only Chicago Flubs

2011-05-28T18:34:00.000-07:00

Cubs fans are a funny bunch. Down 10-0 in the bottom of the ninth, 2 outs, and up comes Darwin Barney (winner of April's NL Rookie of the Month and a personal favorite) to the plate. At this crucial juncture the game, the Cubs have mustered 2 hits against ~~perennial Cy Young candidate~~ completely mediocre pitcher Paul Malholm. 2 hits. On the flipside, Randy Wells, fresh off a DL stint, gave up 5 runs in only a couple innings of work, including a three run home run to Ronny Cedeno. RONNY CEDENO! Yes, the same Ronny Cedeno who I theorized could hit into a double play with no one on base, the same one who could move runners backwards on the bases. The relief pitcher, James Russell (I think, since there's no jumbotron at Wrigley to tell me the pitcher at all times. One of the simple pleasures of Wrigley.) proceeded to give up 5 more runs, really holding down the fort real well. And, oh yeah, Marlon Byrd and Fukudome are being rested, leaving two no names (and I mean no names) playing right and center field. They both looked like they were in high school. Hallelujah for the farm system! Sorry, make sure you wipe off the sarcasm that was just dripping off that paragraph before you proceed.

So, there were the Cubs, down 10-0 on a rainy afternoon in Chicago. I might've left the game a couple of innings ago, but I was lucky enough to be in a box (dessert cart!!!), thanks to my friend Andrew. Since the game has been out of hand for a couple innings, my friend Nick and I have turned to an old past time to create interest- 25 cent bets. After some disastrous bets on my part- I trusted a little too much in Neil Walker- I was down 75 cents. So here's Darwin Barney, stepping up, and I turn to Nick and say, "Double or Nothing- Darwin Barney gets a hit." Nick thoughtfully chews on his S'More cake and finally shakes my hand, solidifying the bet. I start cheering, the last thing I can do to influence Darwin. Nick and I had this conversation earlier- the only possible thing we can do to influence the game is cheer, and that's exactly what I'm doing.

Barney goes down 0-2 quickly. In my head, I'm already thinking about how I'm going to pay Nick his $1.50, what I'll do to make it up to him. I sarcastically say that Darwin hits better when he's down 0-2, anyway, and prepare for the inevitable strikeout or groundout that comes next. And then, remarkably, Barney hits an infield bloop that falls perfectly between the pitcher running out and the shortstop charging in. The throw to first is too late, and Darwin Barney has singled and saved me $1.50.

Of course, at this point, I'm screaming with joy, celebrating the timely hit, number 3 for the Cubs all game. But oddly enough, the rest of the stadium is cheering with me. All 10,000, give or take, fans that have remained at the game, the hopeless souls who still believed, are wildly cheering, half with sarcasm, half with hope. A chant of "Let's Go Cubs!" is heard throughout the stadium. Up next is Starlin Castro, the lone bright spot for the Cubs in this game, and, for the most part, this season. The remaining fans are as energetic as they can be, trying to will Starlin to start the most improbable comeback, the one that every person remaining has secretly been harboring in their head, the one they might've sarcastically talked about before but now that notion is playing around in the back of their head, and they'll be one of the glorious few who stayed at the game and saw the Cubs come back from 10 runs. The story of a lifetime. We've been beaten down for years, for more than a century, but we'll be there at the very end waiting for the small chance of joy, these 10,000.

Starlin takes a couple pitches, and then hits a fly ball almost straight to the right fielder. The fans initially see it and hope for a home run, and make the excited sound for a half second before it is cut off by the realization that this game is over. And, like that, the game is over. No comeback, no Go Cubs Go today, no W flag hanging over Wrigley.

Yet that moment of excitement after Darwin's hit is still there, that residual feeling. While some of my friends just say that the Cubs suck, my friend Andrew has a different feeling, half joking, but at heart, we want it to be true. "I think that Darwin Barney hit was the turning point for the season, no, the franchise," he says, "I want to look back and tell my kids that I was there when Darwin Barney hit a bloop single in the bottom of the ninth. Sure, Starlin Castro popped out the next play, but it changed things."

I stopped, turned in my All Star Ballot (Starlin at shortstop!) and say, "If the wind was blowing out, that would be a home run."

We talk about more things as we zombie shuffle out of Wrigley, like how every shirt or jersey we buy for a player ends up with him sucking or leaving (That's why I didn't buy a Starlin T-Shirt, and perhaps Andrew saying he got a D-Rose jersey explains some things from the Bulls series..), about the Champions League, what have you, but the exchange about the wind sticks in my mind.

We're Cubs fans. Even in the face of a three hit shutout at the hands of Paul Malholm, an absolute drubbing by the Pirates, we're standing and cheering after a 2 out single, waiting for the wind, for once, to be blowing our way, for the impossible release of joy to occur. It's pathetic, but we're locked in. At this point, it's been too long for us to give up, can't admit that we've wasted any time supporting the Cubs. We've subscribed to the fact that one day we'll get it. Till then, I'll be right there with ya till the ninth inning, looking to the flags to see if they're finally flapping out.

The Chicago Bulls: Welcome to Must Win Territory

2011-05-23T21:25:00.000-07:00

Yikes. After a dominating Game One performance, the Bulls have dropped the last two games to fall behind 2-1 in the series. The Game Two loss was slightly acceptable- the Heat were going to be fired up, it was tied with three minutes left and the Bulls let it slip away (but still, they were in it), and the Bulls just had an off shooting night.

Game Three, though, was infuriating. The Bulls defense, statistically the best in the league, got ripped up by CHRIS BOSH. Yes, Bosh Spice of all people. One of the softest big men in the league was able to drop 34 on the Bulls. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade didn't even have spectacular games- they just about matched Bosh's production points wise, TOGETHER. On offense, Derrick Rose had 20 points, but was barely the dominant force he needs to be for the Bulls to have a chance. Carlos Boozer finally stepped up, but Joakim Noah stepped into the background with a point and five rebounds, while Taj Gibson continued his solid, consistent effort. Omer Asik...we'll, he's not what we'd call "offensively competent," so Miami is happy to leave him in scoring position, which he does not take advantage of. Luol Deng had a decent game, but continued to force the issue on the offensive end. Too often he drives into the paint and tries to force a shot that just ins't there instead of passing the ball off. The lack of scoring from the Shooting Guard position has been exposed this series- Bogans isn't hitting open shots, Brewer, for some reason, isn't getting quality minutes, and the Heat attack Korver defensively every time he subs in.

Simply put, the Heat defense has figured out how to stop the Bulls attack-with some help from the officials, who aren't giving that many fouls on Derrick Rose's drives. The Heat don't respect Joakim Noah as a shooter, so are free to leave him open on the high pick-and-roll with Derrick Rose and clog the lane (which is why I think Gibson should get more playing time in that role). Also, the Heat have put LeBron on Derrick Rose, along with a helper (who comes off one of the big men, Noah usually) to prevent his drives. They're keeping the ball out of his hands. And when that happens, the Bulls aren't scoring consistently.

On the defensive side, the Bulls fell apart on their rotations and help defense, leaving Bosh open to try and stop Wade or James. Here's the problem- Bosh can hit open shots when he's motivated. He continued to punish the Bulls for playing off him when all they needed to do was play him hard and take him out of the game early. As for stopping Wade and James, I think the Bulls should go with Brewer on Wade (he's better than Bogans on defense and has been hitting more shots recently) and keep Deng on James with help off Joel Anthony (when he's in) or off of Bibby/ Chalmers (because Haslem has been killing us).

But that's just one fan's opinion. What really matters for Game 4 is how much effort the Bulls put into the game. This is simply put a must win. The Bulls will not come back from down 3-1 in the series. Miami is too talented to lose three straight. The Bulls need to take this one and prove that they can win on the road, even the series and regain home court advantage. If the Bulls can play defense like they did in Game 1, where they shut down James and Wade and let Bosh do some damage (but not enough to really kill them, as their offense was actually working), they can win this game. They need to pair that defensive energy with some offensive fire- some good low post play along with a dominating Derrick Rose performance. This is a time when an MVP shows what he's made of- in the clutch, when the team needs him most. He's been hemmed in this series, and he needs to bust out in a big way- the rest of the team will follow.

So I'll be watching Game 4 intently, hanging on every basket. Because it is life or death. As much as fans like to delude themselves, 3-1 is almost impossible to get out of. It's the death knell for the season, the shot before the total knockout. That dazed state is almost impossible to deal with. Hopefully the Bulls keep me out of there.

Bummer Time

2011-05-15T17:24:00.000-07:00

Every sports fan has felt it at some point- the dejection after a playoff loss, when the finality of a season is fully realized, nothing to look forward to, every dream deferred. Yet, there's the promise of next year that sucks you right back in. And so it continues. You get over it, eventually, once the team starts up again. There's that promise of a better day, a triumph that will lift you off the mat.

It's different for the athletes, who have to deal with the fact that they had control, that they had the opportunity to change the outcome. Fans like to pretend they have some sway in the performance- with cheering, booing, or following all the right superstitions. When it comes down to it, though, cheering and maybe giving a boost to the home team is all you can do. It's that separation that lets a fan move on. They were let down by the team, and not by themselves. The pros have to consider what they contributed, what more they could've done. It lingers, pops up in your head when you don't expect it. And eventually, they motivate themselves and move on, ready to do more when they have the next opportunity.

The problem is, I don't have another opportunity.

Yesterday I played my last game of high school water polo, and we lost in the sectional finals for the third straight year to the same team (and no, it's not lost on me that I've done a small-scale Early 90s Buffalo Bills in my own athletic career.) We lost 12-9 this year, 8-7 the year before, and 12-10 the year before- all close games. And that makes it even worse, because every decision I made, every action I took during the game more important. I didn't play particularly well, and neither did my team. We were better than this. We got down 4-1, early, got back to within a goal, and then they broke it open. We just didn't have it. Worst of all, though, for me and my two fellow seniors, we don't get another chance at it. It's done. No redemption. I'm jealous of my younger teammates who have the opportunity to make things right. For me, I just have to move on with my life, ignoring pangs of regrets and telling myself that there's more to life than high school water polo, there's more to life than sports. Eventually, eventually...

The Bandwagon

2011-05-08T16:34:00.000-07:00

The playoffs are supposed to bring out the best in sports fans. Having endured a season of highs and lows, of hot streaks and injury troubles, there is the final certainty that their team will continue playing, and the dizzying hope that they will put it all together and win the championship (well, maybe not for Pacers fans this year, but still). Every game has an intensity to it that makes a fan's heart beat 100x times faster, and each day between games seems interminable, the hours stretching by as you continually check for more news about the team. It's a state of concentrated focus, and a state of possibility. And it's a reward for all the time, money and devotion sunk into a team over the course of a season.

Unfortunately, there's a segment of the population that tries to latch onto that feeling, to reap all the rewards with none of the work put in. The bandwagon fans. I can't think of one thing that boils my blood more than to see someone who clearly has no interest in sports, the team, or the very sport itself (for instance, someone not liking hockey) suddenly joining the ranks of true fans.

This sudden rush of new fans when a team is suddenly doing well was probably best exemplified by the Blackhawks playoff run last year and their subsequent season. The Blackhawks were a dead franchise about five years ago, but they changed owners, put the games on TV, welcomed back some famous ex-players, and got Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews through smart drafting. That brought back some fans, but the city hadn't latched onto the team until they made it to the conference semis in 2009. As the next season started, the city was truly behind the team; and I, as an outside observer and not a die hard Blackhawks fan, saw a group of fans that could finally believe in their team again, and threw themselves into the team. It was acceptable after the Dark Ages of Blackhawks hockey. But when the playoffs rolled around that goodwill died for me and plenty of other fans as the next wave of bandwagon fans joined in. People who couldn't tell you what offsides was or name any player on an opposing team were starting to post facebook statuses, wear t-shirts, get lower bowl seats to home games, and then eventually party with the rest of Chicago when they won it all. How is that fair?

My level of disgust reached a new high this year being surrounded by the Blackhawks bandwagon fans. The Blackhawks struggled for a playoff spot all year, leaving all those bandwagon fans not paying attention and writing them off, writing themselves off as fans- "I never liked hockey anyway." Once they clinched the 8 seed, they came back. They went down 3-0 in the series, and it seemed like they were gone for good. School was bereft of Hawks jerseys except for diehards, facebook and twitter were noticeably absent of any Hawks updates in between my personal storm of Sabres updates. The Blackhawks won two straight games and some started crawling back, building up to a tipping point when Game 6 hit. When the Blackhawks eventually pulled it out in overtime, suddenly, all the Blackhawks "fans" were back! Presto! They'd reappeared!

Ugh. I made my disgust known to every bandwagon fan I could find. Finally, someone asked me, "What's the problem, Evan? Why can't I just support the city? Is there such a problem with that?"

Yes, yes there is a problem. A lot of people talk about how some teams "deserve" a championship, or a playoff win, or whatever. Well that's crap. No team deserves anything more than anyone else, no matter what the history of the team is (I've learned that fact the hard way). But there are fans who deserve to have the joy of championship, and they deserve to enjoy it with other real fans. The people who have actually paid attention, those who know the ins and outs of their team and all the players, all those little funny stories that a team acquires over a season. Those are the fans who should be reveling in the glory of a championship. Sports is an all or nothing investment of time. You're in, or you're out. There can't be an in between, you can't just be in when it's good to be in it. And that's what infuriates me so much.

Maybe its jealousy- maybe I know that I can't remove myself from a sinking ship, that I can't just wait for things to get better before I care again. There are people who don't like sports, and I'm willing to accept that. There are people who don't follow sports as deeply as I and many other people do, but sill make a concerted effort to at least pay attention to their teams, and I respect that, especially if its not their favorite sport, or they don't have the time to keep up obsessively. But to try and leech off on the special feeling real fans get in the playoffs, when they're firing on all cylinders and the fanbase is too much for me. I can only hope that when the time comes that they celebrate their championship, they know that it's empty compared to the feeling every real fan has.

Also, I'm going to try and write more frequently. Sorry, it's been a while, plenty of other time commitments. At least I was able to unload this screed.

Thoughts on...Well, Everything

2011-04-22T16:21:00.000-07:00

Yeah, I don't really have any unifying theme for this post. I've got Bills draft impressions, Bulls playoff impressions, the Sabres continuing warpath, and more thoughts on Buffalo sports fandom. Heck, I'd have something to say about the Cubs if they had any consistent story so far besides inconsistency. Anyway, it's a pretty huge time of the year for sports fans, but especially in my realm. Let's get into it.

-Yep, the NFL Draft is next Thursday. The Bills have been linked to seemingly every player with the number three pick, which leaves me terrified. The general consensus I've seen is that the Bills will take Von Miller, the linebacker from Texas A&M. If the Bills actually do this, I will be elated. Seriously, I have visions of Von Miller sacking Tom Brady on key third downs dancing in my head. A defensive playmaker at linebacker is exactly what we need. He can rush the passer with devastating speed (hopefully like Clay Matthews) and has good run stopping and coverage skills. If Marcell Dareus isn't available at that spot, I would love for him to be on the team. Unfortunately, I have almost no faith in Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey to draft for any semblance of 'need' after last years first round pick of CJ Spiller when we had two 1,000 yard running backs already. So when I hear Nix say that the Bills have always been "super high" on Blaine Gabbert...guh. And when I see that Andre Reed basically gave away that the Bills are trying to draft Christian Ponder in the 2nd round...oh Lord. A quarterback from Florida State with injury problems and above average accuracy and arm strength? Replace 'Florida State' with 'Stanford' and you get the exact description of Trent Edwards. For the love of God, not again. And, if the Panthers go with anyone else but Cam Newton at #1, I would not be surprised to see him go to the Bills. I've already stated my preference for Newton over Gabbert, but not over Miller or Dareus or any other defensive stopper. And you know what? I wouldn't even be surprised if the Bills took A.J. Green, the wide receiver. Seriously, Buddy Nix is capable of anything. I could see him explaining his pick by going Charlie-from-It's Always Sunny-style "WILDCARD, BITCHES!!!" and leaving the press conference. I'm not going to trust any source until I hear the name called at the podium. It's going to be a looooooong week.

-Onto the Bulls, who have a 3-0 series lead over the lowly Pacers, but haven't looked dominant in any of the wins. Every game has gone down to the wire; and it's usually the Bulls who are coming back as opposed to fighting off Pacers rallies. Derek Rose was phenomenal in games 1 and 2, struggled through game 3, but managed to hit the game winning shot. Even with the 3-0 series lead, plenty of pundits are beginning to write off the Bulls as serious championship threats, instead turning to the Miami Heat as favorites to come out of the East. Franky, I find this ridiculous. For one thing, the Bulls have still managed to win these games (unlike fellow #1 seed the Spurs who lost game one) despite playing well below their potential (too many turnovers, poor shooting, lackluster defense). Secondly, the Pacers are a better team than their record indicates- yes, they only won 37 games, but they've played much better once they fired their coach and got Vogel in there. Thirdly, Joakim Noah is still easing his way back into the lineup after a late season injury. Once he gets healthy and the team gets its collective mojo back, watch out. Till then, they're still winning. So why's everyone complaining? Sorry, in the playoffs, a W is a W, no style points needed. We'll see how the Miami Heat fare against the Bulls in the conference finals, with Bulls fully motivated and firing on all cylinders.

-Finally, onto my daily, no, hourly obession. The Sabres playoff run. I haven't been able to write about every game, for a confluence of reasons, but I've been living and dying with every game of this series. The whole series has been shocking to me, because the Sabres are actually matching and often beating the Flyers in terms of toughness. Last year, and in preceding years (think '05-'07 with Briere and Drury), the Sabres have always been the finesse team that either wins with that finesse or gets completely out muscled in every loss. Now, they have the opponents complaining about them and their after the whistle antics. Lindy Ruff has rightly called them 'whiners', sparking a whole new controversy. I think the Flyers complaining about dirty play has to be the most hypocritical thing I've ever heard. This is a team whose history is built on dirty play, and they love to continue that legacy today. You can't complain about another team "getting away with murder" (what Mike Richards said) on the ice and also try and play dirty at the same time. It's maddening. That whole attitude comes from their d-bag of a coach, Peter Laviolette, who seemingly spends the whole game complaining about calls and working the refs. He did it in Carolina in '06 to screw over the Sabres and now he's doing it again in Philly. I'm just ready to see Kaleta booed every time he touches the puck, and to continue antagonizing the Flyers.

And now it comes down to a three game series. The Sabres have fought hard throughout the whole series, winning two 1-0 games behind Ryan Miller's otherworldly goaltending (he's in that 2010 Olympics Zone right now, firmly in the opponent's head), and losing two games where it came down to the end, a 5-4 loss in Game 2 and a 4-2 loss in Game 3 (the last Philly goal was an empty netter, so it was a one goal game). The Sabres have shown remarkable resilience in the two losses- almost every time they went down a goal, they were able to respond, and have basically shown that they can stick with the Flyers even if Ryan Miller lets in a goal. The next step is to win that way, though, to win with a concerted offensive effort (so, come on Boyes, Connolly, etc) that nets more than one goal so Ryan Miller doesn't have to be our savior, because he can't do it every game. If the Sabres can do that, along with cutting out the dumb penalties and stupid mistakes, this is their series. One can only hope, because this team is so different from previous years- they play a good style for the playoffs and they play with physicality. It's warpath time.

And, you know what, this has been bouncing around my head for a little bit...so why not?

- I've just finished Beckett's famous play Waiting For Godot, and, in lieu of actually trying to deeply understand it (in terms of the human experience and whatnot), I've instead just related it to being a sports fan, or my own particular experience. As a fan, I've been waiting, like Estragon and Vladimir, waiting for a championship, for the thing that will give validation to my allegiances. Despite the fact that we've (now I'm switching to fans in general of my teams, Bulls notwithstanding) been beaten down by continued years of abuse, we find ourselves back at that same old place, waiting for the same old thing. Sometimes we see something coming down the road, and our hope rises- but its just Pozzo and Lucky (similarly, we all could just be Lucky, strung along by our 'master'. Or maybe he's luckier than us, because he has no allegiance except for to Pozzo...sorry, I haven't sorted it all out, obviously). When things are at their worst, we contemplate suicide or just giving up, but we just can't. Every time we say that we're done following these teams, that we're done caring- (-"Shall we Go?"-"Yes, let's go"), that when the curtain is about to fall, we will not move, we will remain because we now that once Godot, the championship, what have you, comes, we will be saved.

Or we could be wasting our time. As I said, I'm not sure I understand the play, so. Sorry for getting English-Nerd-y on you.

Name One Thing Better Than Hockey...

2011-04-10T16:06:00.000-07:00

The title of this post is not, I repeat, not the beginning of a post about how hockey is awesome/better than any other sport. Instead, it's the beginning of one of my favorite expressions- "Name one thing better than hockey...playoff hockey." (Of course, it must be said in a faux-Canadian Gordie accent.) But really, there's no better playoffs than what hockey has-the best trophy, playoff beards, and the most intense games and series of any sport. While the NBA's playoffs feel like an interminable slog (it might have to do with the crappy teams that make it and the terrible scheduling that lengthens every series), the NHL playoffs feel perfectly timed, full of drama, and almost over too soon. And the best part- THE BUFFALO FRIGGIN' SABRES ARE IN IT!

That's right, after a shaky start to the season, the Sabres actually managed to pick it up after the All Star Break/ the introduction of Terry Pegula as the new owner/ the trade for Brad Boyes/ the death of former French Connection star Rick Martin. Thomas Vanek has been streaky (as per usual) but managed to pick it up right when his team has needed it, during the stretch run. Drew Stafford has continued to be surprisingly un-Drew Stafford-ish with consistent production (though maybe it's just his contract year...gulp...), Tim Connolly has decided to actually produce (though I hope to God that his injury prone, inconsistent ass is GONE after this season), and, presumed dead a couple of months ago, Nathan Gerbe has started to light it up. It's exciting to see a player way shorter than the average male do ridiculous things on the ice, like a spin-o-rama backhand to tie the game. (And, dirty little secret time: Derek Roy got injured, freeing up the offense, methinks.) Ryan Miller rounded back into last season's form, and then, when injured, Jhonas Enroth came out of nowhere and stepped up for some huge games. The kid has big game flair and is literally 1 trillion times better than Patrick Lalime. It's good to know there's a capable back up, just in case.

All these factors led to the Sabres eventually clinching the 7th seed in the East (Before they clinched, I couldn't write anything about the run they were on out of fear that I would jinx them into a true Buffalo style choke), setting up a first round matchup with...the Philadelphia Flyers. Now, if you had told me a couple of months ago that Buffalo would be playing Philly in the first round, I would've resigned myself to another first round exit and some hope for next year. But recently, Philadelphia's been on a slide. They slipped right out of the top overall seed and almost dropped their division to the Penguins. They alternate two decent to middling goalies and their power play has considerably slipped. And who beat them to clinch their spot in the playoffs?... that's right, the Buffalo Sabres. Yeah, it was in overtime, but a win is a win. They're not unbeatable. There's hope for Buffalo to get out of the first round if they keep playing the inspired hockey they've played the last two months. If the defense can shore itself up, Miller plays like he's capable (2010 Olympics version would be enough to fuel a run to the Eastern Conference Finals), and the offense (especially Thomas Vanek) steps up, this team can make some noise. I'm thrilled. I know what can happen to a city during an extended playoff run- I live in Chicago- and I know that it would be even more insane in Buffalo, where the city lives and dies with the Sabres. There isn't a whole contingent of bandwagon fans jumping on that don't know anything about hockey (CHICAGO). No, this is real, this is life or death, and I can only hope that it will be a wild ride for as long as possible.

Time to get the Sabres shirts and jerseys ready (I have enough to go for a week), get the radio primed (and synced up to the TV broadcast), write the obnoxious facebook and twitter messages, and grow out that playoff beard. It's one of the best times of the year. Sabres on the warpath.

Cubs Opening Day Live Blog

2011-04-01T11:29:00.000-07:00

Lost in all the NFL draft talk and the Sabres playoff run (which I haven't written about, yet) is the fact that the MLB season has begun, the Cubs are back, and they're starting TODAY. I'm sick at home, so why not run a Opening Day live blog? Cubs-Pirates-FEEL THE EXCITEMENT.

1:23 While WGN showed the Pirates lineup, they showed a terrifyingly haggard Pirates fan. Yikes. Kind of sums up the franchise. A cursory look at their lineup shows three players I know- Andrew McCutchen (the one good player they have), Lyle Overbay (the name just sticks in my head) and Ronny Cedeno (an ex Cub who I hypothesized could hit into a double play with no one on base).

1:26 Dempster, the Cubs starting pitcher, starts with three balls, then throws two strikes, eventually forcing a groundout to shortstop Starlin Castro, who makes a nice play on the ball. He's one of the reasons I'm sort of excited for this season. Dempster strikes out the next batter on three pitches, but then gives up a double to McCutchen. Despite his goofy dreadlocks, he's good.

1:29 Dempster strikes out Overbay to get out of the jam. Dempster looks good so far. Cubs trot out Fukudome to lead off. Maybe he'll have another huge April and do nothing afterwards (as always).

1:33 Fukudome flies out, but Castro hits a screamer towards the third baseman, who can't handle it, so Castro makes it to first. That's right, the youngest opening day starter gets our first hit.

1:35 Castro scores FROM FIRST (well, sort of) after the Pirates third baseman (Alvarez, I guess?) skies his throw to first. Byrd at second. That's a promising start. Pretty amazing to run the bases that quickly.

1:37 Here comes Carlos Pena in his Cubs debut. Huge x factor for the Cubs this year. He's got 30 HR potential, but he bat below the Mendoza Line last year. If he can raise that average closer to what he's used to, I'll be a lot more confident about the the teams offense.

1:39 And he draws the walk. That won't help out the ol' average (because it's a flawed stat at heart), but its good for the team.

1:41 I'm surprised that Tyler Colvin isn't playing. I guess the Cubs have to squeeze every cent out of Fukudome, but Colvin is much better. They should have Colvin playing and Castro batting lead off, but, hey, that's just my opinion. Geo Soto pops out to end the inning, stranding two men on base.

1:45 Oh, here comes Ryan Domuit to the plate. I know him too, but only because I did an MLB 2k10 "My Player" mode as a pitcher with the Cubs and pitched against the Pirates a ton of times. Like most years, this looks to be a down year in Pittsburgh. Dempster goes 1-2-3 in the second inning.

1:50 Here comes Alfonso Soriano to lead off the second. Unbelievably that its his fifth year with the Cubs. So much money for so little production. He might be the streakiest baseball player I've ever seen. Sometimes he'll go on these ridiculous tears when gets a homer a game, and then the rest of the season he's just striking out or popping up. To start the 2011 season, he pops out.

1:52 And now, the Cubs second baseman, DARWIN BARNEY!!! Who? Exactly. Love the guy's name, though. Also, he just fought off an 0-2 pitch for a base hit. Good for you Darwin.

1:54 Ryan Dempster gets up to the plate and can't even lay down a bunt. Yikes. The announcers are calling it uncharacteristic, and I sure hope that's true.

1:56 Darwin, NOOOOOOO!!! Caught stealing, and it wasn't even close. Plus the announcers had previously called out Ryan Domuit for not being great at throwing out base runners. The Cubs are not going to be stealing too many bases this year, it seems.

1:58 The Cubs advertising strategy this year features billboards with a Cubs player facing off with either Derek Jeter or Albert Pujols. Ahh, the classic strategy of not very good teams- "Come see stars we don't have! Come see better teams!" The other example of this I've seen in Chicago was the Bulls in the Jamal Crawford/Jalen Rose/Eddy Curry nightmare days. The Blackhawks would've done the same thing back in the Bill Wirtz pre-Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews day, but I don't think they had an advertising budget. Speaking of which, now that the Blackhawks are in a precarious position for the playoffs, yes, once again, the bandwagon fans are disappearing...

2:05 Hey! Kosuke got a hit! Can't wait to NOT see this past June.

2:07 The Pirates bungle a potential double play, allowing Castro to reach first. Man, that is so Pirates-y.

2:08 Just remembered that Ron Santo died, so I won't have the delight of hearing him on the radio. What a bummer. Byrd reaches base on a single, moving Castro up. Here comes Aramis Ramirez with a RBI chance.

2:10 Ramirez gets a single but he can't bring in the run, so now its bases loaded for Carlos Pena. He could make the city fall in love with him right now with a big hit here. Seriously, Cubs fans will LOVE a guy early in the season, with all their hope built up.

2:12 Tom Ricketts (the owner) has awkwardly been in the booth this whole inning, but at least he sounds like a real baseball fan. Pena grounds into what could've been a double play, but Ramirez is savvy enough to slide into the second baseman, so Castro comes in for another run scored. 2-0 Cubs!

2:14 Geo Soto once again fails to get a hit with runners on base. Thanks, Geo, you've been AWESOME ever since you won Rookie of the Year. Can't help but think that Colvin could've done a little more in that spot.

2:17 The Cubs began the game with God Bless America, the Pledge of Allegiance and the National Anthem, along with the 9/11 flag. Woah. We get it, baseball is AMERICAN. Also, the Ricketts are also apparently funding the Tea Party. Weird.

2:21 Dempster gets out of a jam (Overbay doubled) with a strikeout. He's been pitching well. It's weird to see that on Opening Day, because I'm used to Carlos Zambrano going out on Opening Day and getting shelled. My routine has been thoroughly messed with.

2:27 Cubs go down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the fourth. Darwin couldn't save us. But I'm still hopping on the bandwagon.

2:35 The Pirates had a man on second with 1 out with Ronny Cedeno coming to the plate. I thought this was a sure double play opportunity. Instead, Dempster walks him. It's RONNY CEDENO. Now there's men on second and third with two outs (after a sac bunt). Dempster's gonna have to work to get out of this one. In an alternate universe, Carlos Zambrano is pitching this game and has just given up a home run and is screaming at the dugout.

2:39 Oh god, Dempster just walked the bases loaded.

2:42 Full count, bases loaded....and oh my god, he just hit a grand slam. Not a good place for Dempster to put that pitch. I guess me making fun of the Pirates is coming back to bite me. Now that I remember it, the Cubs sucked last year against the Pirates.

2:45 It's pretty easy to take the energy out of Wrigley field, and Neil Walker just did exactly that. Add in the fact that its cold and raining...the Cubs need to do something in this inning to get the fans back.

2:48 Aaaaaand Kosuke strikes out. See, even I'm getting bitter, and I'm sitting at home.

2:52 1-2-3 inning for the Cubs. Oof.

2:58 Dempster should be out after this inning. He's having trouble hitting the strike zone consistently this inning (the 6th). Taking his time between pitches, too. His location is also off (a belt high changeup,yeesh).

3:04 Dempster eventually gets out of the inning, but I'd describe his performance as 'laboring'. Which could also describe my interest in this game.

3:07 Shots of people in ponchos watching the Cubs losing set to U2's 'Beautiful Day'. I never knew WGN was so ironic.

3:12 Carlos Pena gets the green light on a 3-0 pitch and skies it straight upwards, leading to a fielders choice when the Pirates can't catch the pop up. And, right on cue, here comes Geo Soto. I'm guessing double play here. Literally right after I typed that Soto almost grounded into a double play, but it turns into another fielders choice. Now Soriano comes to bat, and it seems like a perfect opportunity for him to strike out, but instead he pops out. Still 4-2 Pirates. Yikes.

3:19 Adam Dunn is trending on twitter for doing well for the White Sox, while Neil Walker is trending for killing the Cubs. McCutchen just hit a 2 run homer. This game is going swimmingly.

3:25 Russel comes in and strikes out the next batter. Maybe the crowd will be revitalized by Santo's family singing the seventh inning stretch. Let's Get Some Runs!

3:31 Darwin Barney (MY BOY!!!) pops up and somehow the Pirates let another one drop. If the Cubs had a competent offense today, they'd take advantage of more of these mistakes.

3:34 Tyler Colvin is pinch hitting! Watch him strike out and make me look like an idiot.

3:35 Yep.

3:38 Hey, Kosuke showed up! An RBI single brings in Darwin Barney to cut the lead to 6-3. That was that capitalizing-on-their-mistakes thing I was talking about.

3:42 Another hit by Starlin Castro. This guy is a machine. Now Byrd is up, tying run at the plate, one out.

3:45 Byrd pops out, so now its Ramirez's turn to try and make something happen, but he flies out into deep left center. Once again, we strand two base runners. That's not a trend you want to continue.

3:57 After a quiet inning for the Pirates, Pena gets on base with a goofy hit, allowing Geo Soto to not do anything with a man on base (he pops out). Soriano's up now. Guessing he'll pop out or strike out, in classic Soriano fashion (as you can tell, its been a pretty bitter five years with Soriano).

4:00 Yep, strike out. I think we have 3 more years with this guy. Well, here's DARWIN BARNEY!!! Maybe he can cement himself as 'my guy' with a clutch hit.

4:04 He struck out. Well, he hasn't been doing that for five years, so I can't be completely disenfranchised with him.

4:09 Jeff can't-spell-his-last-name-the-former-ND-WR is pitching for the Cubs now. If I had to choose between professionally playing football or baseball, I'd definitely pick baseball too. It's a pretty lazy sport and they make a lot of money for not a lot of effort (with so much less brain damage than football).

4:18 The aforementioned Jeff walks the bases loaded, but eventually settles down and gets the batter to line out to Starlin Castro, who makes another great play in the field for a double play. He had a bunch of errors last year but looks much improved this year. Now it's time for the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs last shot.

4:21 Blake Dewitt starts the inning by striking out. Now its up to Kosuke and the the top of the order.

4:23 Fukudome walks, getting him up to 3 times on base in five trips. I don't care, I still very much dislike Kosuke.

4:25 Starlin Castro gets his third hit of the day on a base hit up the middle that's initially stopped by Cedeno, but he can't make a play on it. Now Marlon Byrd is the tying run at the plate.

4:27 Byrd strikes out disastrously, missing late on the first two strikes and then looking at the last pitch.

4:28 And Ramirez grounds out to end the game, Cubs lose 6-3. That was a very Cubs-ish ninth inning- get in position to at least tie, and then failing to produce. If this team hopes to make a playoff run this year, the situational hitting is going to have to get a lot better. I know its just one game, but it was not a sparkling start by any means.

Final thoughts, I guess, on being a Cubs fan. It's perennially being in the bottom of the ninth inning, down a couple runs, but hoping, hoping for that one time when things will go wonderfully right. And its been that way my whole life, and the 82 years before that. Sure, there are fans who just go to Wrigley to get drunk and leave early if the Cubs are going to lose; but there's also that faction just waiting, waiting, waiting.