|Another in a series of Sad Fitz photos|
Merry Christmas, y'all. I'm writing this one from the heart of Dolphins country, South Florida. The weather's nice, and the team is better than the Bills. Buffalo really is cursed. Once again, missed the Thursday Night Pick. Would've gone Texans win, Colts cover, so at least I got an ATS win. As for the last two weeks (I forgot to tally up the Week 14 picks), 13-3 Overall and 7-9 ATS for Week 14; 9-7 overall and 6-9-1 ATS for Week 15. Yikes against the spread, folks, but at least I can pick winners.
Oakland at Kansas City (-2.5)
Oakland's gone through a horrible slide and their bet that they could make the playoffs with Carson Palmer is looking like a huge mistake. Good thing this team won't have a number one pick for the next two years to get any better! As for the Chiefs, they just beat the Packers and have some serious momentum under Romeo Crennel (yes, I was very wrong about him last week. The Chiefs definitely hated Todd Haley). The AFC West is basically a crapshoot, so, of course, the Chiefs will take this one to further muddle the picture.
Pick: Kansas City wins, covers
Denver (-2.5) at Buffalo
Do you really think Tim Tebow is going to lose on the eve of the birth of his savior? Do you really think the Bills can compete against the Broncos' great running game and defense? Absolutely not. It might not be pretty, but the Broncos should win pretty easily. The only way this would not happen is if the Bills pulled a classic 'Bills' move and won out and got a worse draft pick because of it. (*long, exasperated sigh on behalf of all Bills fans). Still, losing seems more likely.
Pick: Broncos win, cover
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)
The Titans just lost to the Colts last week and they're getting seven over a just as good Jaguars team? Sorry, can't trust the Titans to comfortably win this one. The Jacksonville defense is good enough to hamper a middling Titans offense for long enough in the game to keep it close. The Jaguars just won't be able to win because of Blaine Gabbert's bad quarterbacking, throwing to the worst corps of receivers in the league.
Pick: Titans win, Jaguars cover
Arizona at Cincinnati (-4.5)
The Bengals have faded a bit since their hot start, as their schedule has become increasingly difficult. The Cardinals have gone on a mini run to get back into longshot playoff contention behind proto-Tebow John Skelton. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they're away from home, and the Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives and are overall a better team. It'll stay close, but I like the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals win, Cardinals cover
Miami at New England (-9.5)
New England's been great this season, what with their fancy two tight end offense that masks their terrible defense. But I love the Dolphins- Reggie Bush is finally living up to his potential, Matt Moore has a weird connection with Brandon Marshall, and the defense is very good. I like the Patriots to take this by sheer dint of their offense, but I think the Dolphins will make it pretty interesting.
Pick: New England wins, Miami covers
Cleveland at Baltimore (-12.5)
The Ravens have a chance to clinch their division this week, and the Browns are still the Browns: nothing to see here. The Ravens have had a terrible habit of playing down to opponents, but were able to smack down the Browns last time they played, so I'm hesitantly picking the Ravens to cover as well as win.
Pick: Ravens win, cover
NY Giants "at" NY Jets (-3)
I hate both these teams, picks wise, because they are maddeningly inconsistent. I guess I'll pick based on either team's best possible performance; and in that case, I like the offense of the Giants and their pass rushing defense better than the Jet's ground and pound offense and not-as-good-as-the-hype defense.
Pick: Giants win, cover
Minnesota at Washington (-7)
The Redskins have made something of their previously doomed season behind the resurgence of Rex Grossman and a slightly better running game. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson back, though, and the Redskins aren't great on defense, so I see the Redskins victimizing the Viking's poor pass defense and the Vikings making a game out of it before ultimately losing.
Pick: Redskins win, Vikings cover
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-7.5)
While Tampa Bay has been pretty bad this season, the Panthers haven't been nearly good enough for me to trust them with 7.5 points. It should be a close battle between these two NFC South also-rans, and I like Cam Newton and the Panthers to win, but the Bucs will stick around.
Pick: Panthers win, Buccaneers cover
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-12.5)
Charlie Batch always comes in and plays decently for the Steelers, and that should be quite enough against the Rams, who have been the most disappointing team of the season. Remember when we all thought the Rams would take the NFC West? Ha!
Pick: Steelers win, cover
San Diego at Detroit (-2)
I wish I wasn't getting tricked into another Chargers late season run, but here they are, and here I am, picking them to beat a Lions team that only has a playoff chance because Matt Forte and Jay Culter got injured. Feel like I might hate this pick, but here goes: Chargers win.
Pick: Chargers win, cover
San Francisco (-1) at Seattle
If the spread wasn't just a point, I would pick the Seahawks to cover, because they're at home and have been playing increasingly well. The 49ers shocked me in dismantling the Steelers last week (albeit without a healthy Ben Roethlisberger), but I don't think they'll find this game quite easy. Still, they should win, probably on a Akers field goal or something.
Pick: 49ers win, cover
Philadelphia at Dallas (-1)
The Eagles have finally stopped making the dumb mistakes that led them to their horrible start. The Cowboys seem long overdue for another Romo-led collapse. Plus, the Eagles have been playing lights out recently. Dallas' defense is horrible against the pass, got beat by a worse version of this Eagles team already, and the offense is still sometimes wonky thanks to Romo. Like the Eagles here, even if the game becomes meaningless for them with a Giants win.
Pick: Eagles win, cover
Chicago at Green Bay (-11.5)
Green Bay may have lost last week, but they're still far and away the best offense in the league. The Bears are starting
Pick: Packers win, Bears cover
Atlanta at New Orleans (-7)
Anyone watching Drew Brees lately should know that this doesn't even seem fair. The Saints offense has been ridiculous lately, and as much as the Falcons wish they had the same kind of firepower, Matt Ryan is no Drew Brees. Both defenses aren't that good, so it'll come down to the offense, and the Saints have a clear advantage.
Pick: Saints cover, win
Season: 148-76 overall, 110-109-5 ATS